Hi Ngaatu...the last week and a half has been a tedious one for me with all sorts of demands...now that the pressure has eased a bit,hopefully i will be back to doing what i like.

Gustav is ushering in a new dimension for oil price movement. I can see the buck getting a beating this week if the oil prices go up. There are also more weather calamities expected and this might really affect the USD in the short run. I expect to see a healthy interplay of lousy Eurozone economy and a USD being beaten by oil. A lot of whipsaws if you ask me.

My favourite one this week will be the USD/CAD. Tokyo session on Monday may set the tone for the trading considering that US market is on holiday till Tuesday. Any newbie in here,kindly refrain from trading in the US session on monday (from 3pm onwards). The price movement MIGHT be a bad experience for some of us.

I have created an email for forex purposes only.

passysons@yahoo.com

Happy trading all.




Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination

@jammo

Thanks for the reply.Maybe it wont be bad if you go through the text again.I did not say that the primary reason for money flowing out of N.S.E is liquidity and inflation per se.Similarly i am suprised when you say there is a place where economic theory is not used much,maybe this is place where economics is applied beyond the basics also.I did gave a general overview of the stock market and what i meant is the ripple effect caused by the inflation and liquidity on the general perfomance of the economy and hence the N.S.E.

If i term inflation(be it supply side or demand push inflation) i meant the effect of inflation on investment,individual and economy at general,lest it is countered by measures of spurrring the growth then a negative effect is going to be felt for some time. Inflation is always countered by the reserve bank by increasing the repo this in effect increases lending rates making expensive to get funds for investment and always curtails the growth of economy.What does that mean to the economy and investment? It will obvious decrease the patterns of individuals in even spending(consumption) e.t.c. And where do the firms in N.S.E get their money and returns from?dont they get them from the economy and what if the economy aint good,will they not have decreased revenues and returns?? What you are terming if the stock exchange is sustaning itself its true and of course the annualized returns always beat the figures,thats not disputable but not for a long time.About Zimbabwe stock exchange yes its still maintaing its robustness;but you should know most firms in zimbabwe are foreign based firms(and mostly mining and export oriented firms) which rely mostly on export based transcations and their operations mostly have not been affected that much as they dont rely on domestic economy that much for their returns,it is confidence and stability for future that threatens them but their returns are in fact booming as commodities in the world are on demand craze. What about our economy and the firms in the N.S.E very few are export firms and their commdoties are not that in high demand as substitutes in the world are there,so most or 95% rely on the domestic economy.You can check during the collapse of asian stocks market(from thailand e.t.c) and the effect during the south american economies (argentina and mexico) for more outlook in the developing markets equity markets.

Regarding the liquidity i did not mean that it was practical a crunch,liquidity can be constrained but not particularly will reach a level of crunch if its in parameters of being controlled. Yes the safcom had mopped liquidity but thats not the sole factor in the economy to constrain the liquidity,the C.B.K itself can put measures to curtail it or use expansionary measures depending on the prevailing conditions and in this condition the measure was to somehow counter the inflation. Money flowing from one counter to another counter is normal but it cannot flow to weak counters constantly as nobody will gain form them. General i only wanted to picture the effect as some counters will not perform well did not mean all counters will perform poorly,no infact other counters may perfom excellent and still people benefit from them,but in general the perfomance of the N.S.E is lukewarm for some time but will rally afterwards.So it depend on the person on stock picking.

So with due respect i find that saying we dont use much ecenomic theory you are a little bit off the facts.


@NGAATU

hello@ all

Am now back from a journey so very happy to be back in the forex forum,hope you have set the forex place for traders only.I have bought in new guys to learn the investment also.

HARD WORK,HARD WORK HARD WORK

Hi all...

Late post but if anyone is interested,i am going short GBP/USD...Entered at 1.801140.

I have been also short EUR/USD since Tokyo session...entered at 1.469050 and will let it run for the week. Gustav is category 3 and we are seeing some slight damage and flooding if this is the case.

@Ngaatu...Gustav doesn't look that bad so far.


Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination

Hi Ngaatu,Passyon,Kilabe,all others!

Hope you have all been having nice trades. Havent logged to sk for a while,too busy.

My focus for now is on GBPUSD. Its been amazing. You just close your eyes,enter a short,and voila! Alistair Darling's comments that UK's economy is at its worst in 60 years shows that all is not well for Her Majesty the pound. My Trades are shorting on upticks. Today = 77 pips on 2 shorts.

Hurricane Gustav just downgraded to CAT 2. Was fearing it might have a large impact on oil as rigs on the gulf coast are being shut,but it seems the effect may be less catastrophic,and the govt is more alert after Katrina. So oil may continue holding down,and USD continue gaining,if not maintain its strong tone against the majors.

Am seeing US,UK and ECB holding rates stable this month,though dont be surprised if UK cuts by 25 bps (UK inflation hasnt come down significantly to warrant a cut)

I'll continue shorting cable this week on upticks. After the US labor day,a break of 1.7980 will shed probably another 250 pips.

GL and GT