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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Hello Joined: 1/21/2016 Posts: 1 Location: NAIROBI
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mnandii wrote:mlennyma wrote:mnandii wrote:Financial Values Can Disappear (Excerpt, Conquer the Crash, ch. 9) People seem to take for granted that financial values can be created endlessly seemingly out of nowhere and pile up to the moon. Turn the direction around and mention that financial values can disappear into nowhere, and they insist that it is not possible. “The money has to go somewhere…It just moves from stocks to bonds to money funds...It never goes away…For every buyer, there is a seller, so the money just changes hands.” That is true of the money, just as it was all the way up, but it’s not true of the values, which changed all the way up. Asset prices rise not because of “buying” per se, because indeed for every buyer, there is a seller. They rise because those transacting agree that their prices should be higher. All that everyone else -- including those who own some of that asset and those who do not -- need do is nothing. Conversely, for prices of assets to fall, it takes only one seller and one buyer who agree that the former value of an asset was too high. If no other bids are competing with that buyer’s, then the value of the asset falls, and it falls for everyone who owns it. Financial values can disappear through a decrease in prices for any type of investment asset, including bonds, stocks and land. Read more: http://www.elliottwave.c...Yes..aspx#ixzz3xOFNAnDC Follow us: @elliottwaveintl on Twitter | ElliottWaveInternational on Facebook True wise words
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Spikes wrote:hisah wrote:Watch out for mpesa bank... The swift drops are coming! @hisah are you holding anything or as for you now cash is king? Still in cash. I wanted to board bamburi but decided not to as the market was hinting to give fatter discounts this year. NIC is also on my strike list.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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hisah wrote:Spikes wrote:hisah wrote:Watch out for mpesa bank... The swift drops are coming! @hisah are you holding anything or as for you now cash is king? Still in cash. I wanted to board bamburi but decided not to as the market was hinting to give fatter discounts this year. NIC is also on my strike list. i expect the reporting season to cool the slide abit especially on banks before resuming after Q1 "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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mnandii wrote:snipermnoma wrote:mnandii wrote:NSE 20 SHARE INDEX SHORT TERM UPDATE  Unless 4040 level is broken upward, my outlook remains bearish. Am looking for a third wave drop i.e wave iii whose targets are as below: Wave i = ( 4257.27 - 3829.91 ) = 427.36 Typically third waves are 161.8 or 261.8% of first waves. Thus: Wave iii end = {4040.75 - 1.618 X 427.36} = 3349.28OR Wave iii end= {4040.75 - 2.618 X 427.36} = 2921.92 @mnandii I'm still an amateur wave counter so I'm wondering how to count green wave 3. My assumptions are as follows: I assume green wave 3 comprises of five blue/cyan waves (so far we have [i] and [ii]). I assume blue/cyan [iii] is composed of five red waves (so far we have i and ii). Green wave 5 will be the end of black wave (C) from long term chart which you calculated as 2415.48, 1698.19 or 1397.15 in post [url=http://www.wazua.co.ke/forum.aspx?g=posts&m=706678#post706678]1377[/url] YES! Basically in a third wave extension each higher wave degree is composed of five lower degree waves viz:  Similar to above but in our case it is a bear market third wave extension (so mentally flip this upside down). I see. So we need to complete red to v, blue to [v], green to 5 for black to be at C. Looks like the way down will be a loooong one.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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snipermnoma wrote:mnandii wrote:snipermnoma wrote:mnandii wrote:NSE 20 SHARE INDEX SHORT TERM UPDATE Unless 4040 level is broken upward, my outlook remains bearish. Am looking for a third wave drop i.e wave iii whose targets are as below: Wave i = ( 4257.27 - 3829.91 ) = 427.36 Typically third waves are 161.8 or 261.8% of first waves. Thus: Wave iii end = {4040.75 - 1.618 X 427.36} = 3349.28OR Wave iii end= {4040.75 - 2.618 X 427.36} = 2921.92 @mnandii I'm still an amateur wave counter so I'm wondering how to count green wave 3. My assumptions are as follows: I assume green wave 3 comprises of five blue/cyan waves (so far we have [i] and [ii]). I assume blue/cyan [iii] is composed of five red waves (so far we have i and ii). Green wave 5 will be the end of black wave (C) from long term chart which you calculated as 2415.48, 1698.19 or 1397.15 in post [url=http://www.wazua.co.ke/forum.aspx?g=posts&m=706678#post706678]1377[/url] YES! Basically in a third wave extension each higher wave degree is composed of five lower degree waves viz: Similar to above but in our case it is a bear market third wave extension (so mentally flip this upside down). I see. So we need to complete red to v, blue to [v], green to 5 for black to be at C. Looks like the way down will be a loooong one. The current account deficit narrows down 2015 and will continue shrinking 2016. Liquidity is coming very soon less than a month. Others are cheering a bear without loading. Shilling remains steady according to Opus Dei. Prophets of doom where you? http://www.nation.co.ke/...0/-/6esu63/-/index.html
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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At market tops, the majority are bullish and wrong. At market bottoms, the majority are bearish and wrong. Prechter. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mlennyma wrote:hisah wrote:Spikes wrote:hisah wrote:Watch out for mpesa bank... The swift drops are coming! @hisah are you holding anything or as for you now cash is king? Still in cash. I wanted to board bamburi but decided not to as the market was hinting to give fatter discounts this year. NIC is also on my strike list. i expect the reporting season to cool the slide abit especially on banks before resuming after Q1 Again I'll state it that the investor psychology is shredded. In bear markets good news is sold, bad news is sold! In bull markets good news is celebrated, bad new is bought! That's the psychology... Bulls create optimism, bears create pessimism. You need a major news headline to disrupt the prevailing psychology not just profit/loss reports.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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hisah wrote:Spikes wrote:hisah wrote:Watch out for mpesa bank... The swift drops are coming! @hisah are you holding anything or as for you now cash is king? Still in cash. I wanted to board bamburi but decided not to as the market was hinting to give fatter discounts this year. NIC is also on my strike list. I was thinking about Bamburi too because of SGR but the trailing PE 17.6 is not pleasing at all, are you able to gauge what the forward PE would be? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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murchr wrote:hisah wrote:Spikes wrote:hisah wrote:Watch out for mpesa bank... The swift drops are coming! @hisah are you holding anything or as for you now cash is king? Still in cash. I wanted to board bamburi but decided not to as the market was hinting to give fatter discounts this year. NIC is also on my strike list. I was thinking about Bamburi too because of SGR but the trailing PE 17.6 is not pleasing at all, are you able to gauge what the forward PE would be? My forecast for BAMB is
Turnover 40B vs 36B
EPS - 13 vs 9.80 boosted by forex gains on USD cash holdings thus forward PER = 13.3
Total DPS - 12 (6+6) - Dividend yield at current stock price (173) is 6.9%
I expect this stock stay afloat in the current bearish storm.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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HFCK breaking below 20 handle  All time high volume churned in mid Dec last year at 21 - 22 range. Are we going to see 10 handle tested??? $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Yet market operators are busy preaching buy stocks now they're cheap. Bla bla bla. Until this saga comes to an end taking down all the dirt out of the system, the market can't take off and the signals in the bond market undersubscriptions says we're yet to see the bottom fall out! I continue to warn those holding bank stocks sit tight $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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hisah wrote:HFCK breaking below 20 handle All time high volume churned in mid Dec last year at 21 - 22 range. Are we going to see 10 handle tested??? If HFCK tests 10 handle it will be a total disaster in our economy because this bank has strong fundamentals. I urge NSE shutdown if we hit such indecent levels. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:HFCK breaking below 20 handle All time high volume churned in mid Dec last year at 21 - 22 range. Are we going to see 10 handle tested??? A former darling of mine until i missed out on the rights, which later turned out to be a blessing in disguise. I said severally that those rights were over valued, I was a lone voice in this. Looking back. This was just the classic "new listings" during a bear run, just that it was a rights. I like the company, but I do not trust Britam, who now own 46%. At 10.00-13.00 it will be equivalent to 15.00- 19.50 before the rights, which sounds about right to me. Especially any figure approaching 13.00. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:murchr wrote:hisah wrote:Spikes wrote:hisah wrote:Watch out for mpesa bank... The swift drops are coming! @hisah are you holding anything or as for you now cash is king? Still in cash. I wanted to board bamburi but decided not to as the market was hinting to give fatter discounts this year. NIC is also on my strike list. I was thinking about Bamburi too because of SGR but the trailing PE 17.6 is not pleasing at all, are you able to gauge what the forward PE would be? My forecast for BAMB is
Turnover 40B vs 36B
EPS - 13 vs 9.80 boosted by forex gains on USD cash holdings thus forward PER = 13.3
Total DPS - 12 (6+6) - Dividend yield at current stock price (173) is 6.9%
I expect this stock stay afloat in the current bearish storm.
That's encouraging coming from you. But we have to agree if the market gets to 3000 points, bamburi will have to shed some weight though not 50% like some have shed The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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:- Spikes wrote:hisah wrote:HFCK breaking below 20 handle All time high volume churned in mid Dec last year at 21 - 22 range. Are we going to see 10 handle tested??? If HFCK tests 10 handle it will be a total disaster in our economy because this bank has strong fundamentals. I urge NSE shutdown if we hit such indecent levels. In 2011_2013 the market took hfck there just after the successful rights at twentish and the market surely did not close. Why think it's will close this time round. Buckle up, we are experiencing turbulence @spikes or take a parachute.  , I weathered the ride then stuck up at dsl like a real Moran. Now weigh you options cause all indicators say after that dilution the pay check home won't be so nice to talk about. We must respect Mr markets difficult times and mourn with it.  ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:murchr wrote:hisah wrote:Spikes wrote:hisah wrote:Watch out for mpesa bank... The swift drops are coming! @hisah are you holding anything or as for you now cash is king? Still in cash. I wanted to board bamburi but decided not to as the market was hinting to give fatter discounts this year. NIC is also on my strike list. I was thinking about Bamburi too because of SGR but the trailing PE 17.6 is not pleasing at all, are you able to gauge what the forward PE would be? My forecast for BAMB is
Turnover 40B vs 36B
EPS - 13 vs 9.80 boosted by forex gains on USD cash holdings thus forward PER = 13.3
Total DPS - 12 (6+6) - Dividend yield at current stock price (173) is 6.9%
I expect this stock stay afloat in the current bearish storm.
That's encouraging coming from you. But we have to agree if the market gets to 3000 points, bamburi will have to shed some weight though not 50% like some have shed Construction boom has leveled up in Kenya. There is cut throat competition in built environment and thinking that Bamburi is Mr king is not here or there. For a whole year in construction have used every brand from Savanah to bamburi with equal access. Unlike before.  ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/31/2007 Posts: 304
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muandiwambeu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:murchr wrote:hisah wrote:Spikes wrote:hisah wrote:Watch out for mpesa bank... The swift drops are coming! @hisah are you holding anything or as for you now cash is king? Still in cash. I wanted to board bamburi but decided not to as the market was hinting to give fatter discounts this year. NIC is also on my strike list. I was thinking about Bamburi too because of SGR but the trailing PE 17.6 is not pleasing at all, are you able to gauge what the forward PE would be? My forecast for BAMB is
Turnover 40B vs 36B
EPS - 13 vs 9.80 boosted by forex gains on USD cash holdings thus forward PER = 13.3
Total DPS - 12 (6+6) - Dividend yield at current stock price (173) is 6.9%
I expect this stock stay afloat in the current bearish storm.
That's encouraging coming from you. But we have to agree if the market gets to 3000 points, bamburi will have to shed some weight though not 50% like some have shed Construction boom has leveled up in Kenya. There is cut throat competition in built environment and thinking that Bamburi is Mr king is not here or there. For a whole year in construction have used every brand from Savanah to bamburi with equal access. Unlike before. My sentiments exactly.I wouldnt buy into a cement company right now,there is too much dust in the air.Only the most efficient and strategic cement company will survive the bruising fight ahead.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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moneydust wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:murchr wrote:hisah wrote:Spikes wrote:hisah wrote:Watch out for mpesa bank... The swift drops are coming! @hisah are you holding anything or as for you now cash is king? Still in cash. I wanted to board bamburi but decided not to as the market was hinting to give fatter discounts this year. NIC is also on my strike list. I was thinking about Bamburi too because of SGR but the trailing PE 17.6 is not pleasing at all, are you able to gauge what the forward PE would be? My forecast for BAMB is
Turnover 40B vs 36B
EPS - 13 vs 9.80 boosted by forex gains on USD cash holdings thus forward PER = 13.3
Total DPS - 12 (6+6) - Dividend yield at current stock price (173) is 6.9%
I expect this stock stay afloat in the current bearish storm.
That's encouraging coming from you. But we have to agree if the market gets to 3000 points, bamburi will have to shed some weight though not 50% like some have shed Construction boom has leveled up in Kenya. There is cut throat competition in built environment and thinking that Bamburi is Mr king is not here or there. For a whole year in construction have used every brand from Savanah to bamburi with equal access. Unlike before. My sentiments exactly.I wouldnt buy into a cement company right now,there is too much dust in the air.Only the most efficient and strategic cement company will survive the bruising fight ahead. One thing I know and I would wish shared with Wazuans is that some stocks will remain resilient throughout the bear market. Especially the stocks that are expecting good news after being in the dark for more than three years. Archive/bookmark this thread you will come remembering me! John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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Spikes wrote:moneydust wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:murchr wrote:hisah wrote:Spikes wrote:hisah wrote:Watch out for mpesa bank... The swift drops are coming! @hisah are you holding anything or as for you now cash is king? Still in cash. I wanted to board bamburi but decided not to as the market was hinting to give fatter discounts this year. NIC is also on my strike list. I was thinking about Bamburi too because of SGR but the trailing PE 17.6 is not pleasing at all, are you able to gauge what the forward PE would be? My forecast for BAMB is
Turnover 40B vs 36B
EPS - 13 vs 9.80 boosted by forex gains on USD cash holdings thus forward PER = 13.3
Total DPS - 12 (6+6) - Dividend yield at current stock price (173) is 6.9%
I expect this stock stay afloat in the current bearish storm.
That's encouraging coming from you. But we have to agree if the market gets to 3000 points, bamburi will have to shed some weight though not 50% like some have shed Construction boom has leveled up in Kenya. There is cut throat competition in built environment and thinking that Bamburi is Mr king is not here or there. For a whole year in construction have used every brand from Savanah to bamburi with equal access. Unlike before. My sentiments exactly.I wouldnt buy into a cement company right now,there is too much dust in the air.Only the most efficient and strategic cement company will survive the bruising fight ahead. One thing I know and I would wish shared with Wazuans is that some stocks will remain resilient throughout the bear market. Especially the stocks that are expecting good news after being in the dark for more than three years. Archive/bookmark this thread you will come remembering me! If you know why arm or eapc are where they are, know they grazing field is overpopulated. You might be lucky to have a hump to survive, but you will have a tale to tell how your hump used to be big. After every construction boom cement firms feel the heat since time to change systems are long being highly specialised. Some go into disuse or regionalisation of markets into segments/ turf protection. Eapc and bamburi enjoyed close to monopoly but now it's all a bear knuckles fight for market. Prices of cement are suppressed across the country unlike other years. ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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muandiwambeu wrote:Spikes wrote:moneydust wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:murchr wrote:hisah wrote:Spikes wrote:hisah wrote:Watch out for mpesa bank... The swift drops are coming! @hisah are you holding anything or as for you now cash is king? Still in cash. I wanted to board bamburi but decided not to as the market was hinting to give fatter discounts this year. NIC is also on my strike list. I was thinking about Bamburi too because of SGR but the trailing PE 17.6 is not pleasing at all, are you able to gauge what the forward PE would be? My forecast for BAMB is
Turnover 40B vs 36B
EPS - 13 vs 9.80 boosted by forex gains on USD cash holdings thus forward PER = 13.3
Total DPS - 12 (6+6) - Dividend yield at current stock price (173) is 6.9%
I expect this stock stay afloat in the current bearish storm.
That's encouraging coming from you. But we have to agree if the market gets to 3000 points, bamburi will have to shed some weight though not 50% like some have shed Construction boom has leveled up in Kenya. There is cut throat competition in built environment and thinking that Bamburi is Mr king is not here or there. For a whole year in construction have used every brand from Savanah to bamburi with equal access. Unlike before. My sentiments exactly.I wouldnt buy into a cement company right now,there is too much dust in the air.Only the most efficient and strategic cement company will survive the bruising fight ahead. One thing I know and I would wish shared with Wazuans is that some stocks will remain resilient throughout the bear market. Especially the stocks that are expecting good news after being in the dark for more than three years. Archive/bookmark this thread you will come remembering me! If you know why arm or eapc are where they are, know they grazing field is overpopulated. You might be lucky to have a hump to survive, but you will have a tale to tell how your hump used to be big. After every construction boom cement firms feel the heat since time to change systems are long being highly specialised. Some go into disuse or regionalisation of markets into segments/ turf protection. Eapc and bamburi enjoyed close to monopoly but now it's all a bear knuckles fight for market. Prices of cement are suppressed across the country unlike other years. $$$$ loans "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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