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Investors Lounge
hisah
#4711 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 7:49:33 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
The markets are indeed going absolutely nuts yet the critical USD pegs haven't been broken. $/Yuan still below 6.83 level while the USD/riyal is still intact for 30 years and running. When these pegs get devalued as their controllers get knocked out by the market that's when markets will begin falling off the cliff.

Saudi index is already hinting that it's about to fall off the cliff!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#4712 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 8:07:13 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
hisah wrote:
The markets are indeed going absolutely nuts yet the critical USD pegs haven't been broken. $/Yuan still below 6.83 level while the USD/riyal is still intact for 30 years and running. When these pegs get devalued as their controllers get knocked out by the market that's when markets will begin falling off the cliff.

Saudi index is already hinting that it's about to fall off the cliff!


shorting riyal awaiting the inevitable devaluation can get one in the monies!!
@SufficientlyP
lochaz-index
#4713 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 2:19:08 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
hisah wrote:
The markets are indeed going absolutely nuts yet the critical USD pegs haven't been broken. $/Yuan still below 6.83 level while the USD/riyal is still intact for 30 years and running. When these pegs get devalued as their controllers get knocked out by the market that's when markets will begin falling off the cliff.

Saudi index is already hinting that it's about to fall off the cliff!


shorting riyal awaiting the inevitable devaluation can get one in the monies!!


The Saudi's are getting clobbered in every imaginable way. Government fiscal largesse is no longer sustainable which I think is their biggest problem yet as it could breed a revolt against a tyrannical monarch.

Depegging outright is also fraught with risks chief among them imported inflation...they might hold on for a little while by depleting reserves till the yuan gives way.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
tonicasert
#4714 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 4:10:06 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
I doubt Saudi will depeg the currency.

My take - they will hold on to the excess supply, though painful, till most of the US producers are driven off. Thereafter, OPEC just needs to cut 10% of their production (3Mio bbl/day) to counter the current excess of 2Mio Barrels per day, and prices will be back up - though not to $ 100's.

Meanwhile, the c. $100 B deficit will be funded by a combination of debt (expected $ 32B in 2016), utilising their $ 600B odd reserves, and subsidy reduction (last week local fuel prices were hiked by 50%). Subsidy reduction is taking place across GCC, and there's also talk of VAT/Sales tax.

Yesterday, banks were banned from trading SAR options, as the trades have been pressuring the forwards (on deltas).
lochaz-index
#4715 Posted : Friday, January 22, 2016 10:25:26 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Something huge is about to blow the the can of worms/pandoras box wide open. The three week global market sell-off is a big red flag and not just happenstance. The Fed hike amongst other factors probably narrow down the time frame for such an event to Q1 2016. Equities worldwide are going to have a very tough year and then some deep into 2017. The dollar has been taking a breather and should resume a monster rally as things become chaotic.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
hisah
#4716 Posted : Friday, January 22, 2016 10:48:53 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
lochaz-index wrote:
Something huge is about to blow the the can of worms/pandoras box wide open. The three week global market sell-off is a big red flag and not just happenstance. The Fed hike amongst other factors probably narrow down the time frame for such an event to Q1 2016. Equities worldwide are going to have a very tough year and then some deep into 2017. The dollar has been taking a breather and should resume a monster rally as things become chaotic.

In agreement. The markets have been going bananas in a very unusual behaviour. Rarely do trading desks open the year with a huge fist banging on the offload button!

This is why I'm fully focussed on the two USD pegs - $/yuan and $/Riyal. Something is about to blow the lights out.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#4717 Posted : Friday, January 22, 2016 2:43:53 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
A History Of Interest Rates

For those that like to follow the interest rate pattern way back into ancient times of Mesopotamia! Interest rates have never been this low in history. When the tide turns, capital will finally get its fair share of returns. 7 years of zero interest rates is incredible and I highly doubt this experiment will ever be repeated in centuries to come!

Zero bid market will be a crazy playground for bonds.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#4718 Posted : Friday, January 22, 2016 5:39:10 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
China tightens controls on moving money overseas

Quote:
Chinese banks are delaying and even blocking some foreign exchange transactions under a decision by the central government to limit capital leaving the country, a move that could hurt demand for foreign assets including Australian property.

At meetings on Monday and Tuesday afternoon senior bank executives were told by the government to toughen up their capital controls.

A former adviser to China's central bank, Yu Yongding, said the decision to tighten existing capital controls was "useful but not sufficient" because the yuan is overvalued. "If they keep the exchange rate unchanged it encourages outflows because the [yuan] is very expensive to hold," he said. "They need to allow the [yuan] to devalue to market equilibrium."

An Australian real estate agent based in Shanghai, Scott Kirchner, said the tougher capital controls could "cause problems for Australian developers as clients may not be able to get their money out of China".

UBS China economist Wang Tao said the "top concern" of markets is capital outflows getting "out of control, leading to a sudden tightening of domestic liquidity and sharp depreciation of the currency, resulting in market turbulence in China and elsewhere in emerging markets"


Capital controls will get even more draconian as we spiral faster into the bidless blackhole.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
murchr
#4719 Posted : Friday, January 22, 2016 6:07:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Looking at Britam one year later.....all I can say is poleni sana
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
murchr
#4720 Posted : Tuesday, January 26, 2016 12:09:19 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Dow closes down 200 points as oil plunge, growth concerns weigh

Concerns: Poor numbers from China, Oil down again to $30 a barrel, Feds statement
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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