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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
snipermnoma
#1421 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 7:39:16 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
Spikes wrote:
The most frustrating and haunting thing in Securities Exchange is selling your stake today at a throw away price only to wake up the following day by surprise all authoritative newspapers business section is hit by reports of super profits as high as 10 times the previous performance. Imagine your indignation at this scenario after holding your shares for more than a year!


@spikes you continue to be optimistic even as the winter is getting darker. It is not too often that the three approaches: fundamental analysis, technical analysis and elliot wave analysis all conquer on market direction. Right now all point to a bear market. Could you expound on your bullish outlook?
muandiwambeu
#1422 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 7:51:06 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
Spikes wrote:
The most frustrating and haunting thing in Securities Exchange is selling your stake today at a throw away price only to wake up the following day by surprise all authoritative newspapers business section is hit by reports of super profits as high as 10 times the previous performance. Imagine your indignation at this scenario after holding your shares for more than a year!


Just switch dem.
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
hisah
#1423 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 8:01:38 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
snipermnoma wrote:
Today a new multi-year low was set at 3,796.49 for the NSE 20. Not since mid 2012 have we had the index this low...that sinking feeling is beginning to set in. EABL and KCB are now sliding. Equity is caving in and yet safaricom has not fully joined the fray. What will happen once safaricom goes through a slump? Things are unfolding fast.

As long as NSE20 closed 2015 without a solid foothold on the critical 4000 handle it only meant the bear will get muscular. Then add USD capital flight that means emerging markets have no legs as funds get pulled out. Then add gok mismanagement to spice things up plus elections. One heck of a lethal cocktail to knockout even a dead-cold drunkard!

We're just getting started. Bears travel very swiftly unlike bulls.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Spikes
#1424 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 8:14:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
hisah wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
Today a new multi-year low was set at 3,796.49 for the NSE 20. Not since mid 2012 have we had the index this low...that sinking feeling is beginning to set in. EABL and KCB are now sliding. Equity is caving in and yet safaricom has not fully joined the fray. What will happen once safaricom goes through a slump? Things are unfolding fast.

As long as NSE20 closed 2015 without a solid foothold on the critical 4000 handle it only meant the bear will get muscular. Then add USD capital flight that means emerging markets have no legs as funds get pulled out. Then add gok mismanagement to spice things up plus elections. One heck of a lethal cocktail to knockout even a dead-cold drunkard!

We're just getting started. Bears travel very swiftly unlike bulls.



Bears travel swiftly because of panic sale!
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
Aguytrying
#1425 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 10:12:09 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
Today a new multi-year low was set at 3,796.49 for the NSE 20. Not since mid 2012 have we had the index this low...that sinking feeling is beginning to set in. EABL and KCB are now sliding. Equity is caving in and yet safaricom has not fully joined the fray. What will happen once safaricom goes through a slump? Things are unfolding fast.

As long as NSE20 closed 2015 without a solid foothold on the critical 4000 handle it only meant the bear will get muscular. Then add USD capital flight that means emerging markets have no legs as funds get pulled out. Then add gok mismanagement to spice things up plus elections. One heck of a lethal cocktail to knockout even a dead-cold drunkard!

We're just getting started. Bears travel very swiftly unlike bulls.



You had warned us that last year was just the beginning and the way this year has started, you were right.
On the last day of trading I noted they tried to make the index gain many points and it crossed that psychological 4000 point mark. Clearly that was in vain.
This bear run I'm looking to benefit from the low prices and hold to eye opening gains in the next few years. It's like the 2011 bus came back to pick more passengers because that bull run was short.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Spikes
#1426 Posted : Wednesday, January 20, 2016 11:29:09 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
Today a new multi-year low was set at 3,796.49 for the NSE 20. Not since mid 2012 have we had the index this low...that sinking feeling is beginning to set in. EABL and KCB are now sliding. Equity is caving in and yet safaricom has not fully joined the fray. What will happen once safaricom goes through a slump? Things are unfolding fast.

As long as NSE20 closed 2015 without a solid foothold on the critical 4000 handle it only meant the bear will get muscular. Then add USD capital flight that means emerging markets have no legs as funds get pulled out. Then add gok mismanagement to spice things up plus elections. One heck of a lethal cocktail to knockout even a dead-cold drunkard!

We're just getting started. Bears travel very swiftly unlike bulls.



You had warned us that last year was just the beginning and the way this year has started, you were right.
On the last day of trading I noted they tried to make the index gain many points and it crossed that psychological 4000 point mark. Clearly that was in vain.
This bear run I'm looking to benefit from the low prices and hold to eye opening gains in the next few years. It's like the 2011 bus came back to pick more passengers because that bull run was short.


What do you mean that they tried to make the index gain more points last day of 2015 trading? You mean something to do with NSE20 numbers manipulation? Tell us please coz you are sending jitters across investors. We have trust at NSE.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
winmak
#1427 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 7:58:30 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/1/2007
Posts: 539
Location: Nakuru
Spikes wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
Today a new multi-year low was set at 3,796.49 for the NSE 20. Not since mid 2012 have we had the index this low...that sinking feeling is beginning to set in. EABL and KCB are now sliding. Equity is caving in and yet safaricom has not fully joined the fray. What will happen once safaricom goes through a slump? Things are unfolding fast.

As long as NSE20 closed 2015 without a solid foothold on the critical 4000 handle it only meant the bear will get muscular. Then add USD capital flight that means emerging markets have no legs as funds get pulled out. Then add gok mismanagement to spice things up plus elections. One heck of a lethal cocktail to knockout even a dead-cold drunkard!

We're just getting started. Bears travel very swiftly unlike bulls.



You had warned us that last year was just the beginning and the way this year has started, you were right.
On the last day of trading I noted they tried to make the index gain many points and it crossed that psychological 4000 point mark. Clearly that was in vain.
This bear run I'm looking to benefit from the low prices and hold to eye opening gains in the next few years. It's like the 2011 bus came back to pick more passengers because that bull run was short.


What do you mean that they tried to make the index gain more points last day of 2015 trading? You mean something to do with NSE20 numbers manipulation? Tell us please coz you are sending jitters across investors. We have trust at NSE.



Trust at NSE @spikes? PPT in play...
For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
mnandii
#1428 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 8:05:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#1429 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 8:16:48 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
snipermnoma wrote:
mnandii wrote:
NSE 20 SHARE INDEX

SHORT TERM UPDATE



Unless 4040 level is broken upward, my outlook remains bearish.

Am looking for a third wave drop i.e wave iii whose targets are as below:


Wave i = ( 4257.27 - 3829.91 ) = 427.36

Typically third waves are 161.8 or 261.8% of first waves. Thus:

Wave iii end = {4040.75 - 1.618 X 427.36} = 3349.28

OR Wave iii end= {4040.75 - 2.618 X 427.36} = 2921.92


@mnandii I'm still an amateur wave counter so I'm wondering how to count green wave 3. My assumptions are as follows:

I assume green wave 3 comprises of five blue/cyan waves (so far we have [i] and [ii]).

I assume blue/cyan [iii] is composed of five red waves (so far we have i and ii).

Green wave 5 will be the end of black wave (C) from long term chart which you calculated as 2415.48, 1698.19 or 1397.15 in post 1377


YES! Basically in a third wave extension each higher wave degree is composed of five lower degree waves viz:



Similar to above but in our case it is a bear market third wave extension (so mentally flip this upside down).
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#1430 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 8:19:52 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
hisah wrote:
@spikes, the market will rebound but as long as 4000 critical support has broken down that rebound will not be sustainable because the investor psychology has been shredded. This is what makes sellers stall the bulls as they pile up to cash out of losses as the rebound gives them lesser squeeze. Plenty of investors are trapped in bad positions and the rebound will likely tempted them to sell on the bounce.

We will get a proper bottom when it feels like it's bottomless. 2015 selloff didn't trigger that kind of sentiment. If you were in the market back in 2008 (GFC) and 2011 (KES crash/inflation spike) you'd understand that sinking feeling (capitulation). At that point a lot of guys give up on stocks (no sellers). That's when the major bottom kicks in.


Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#1431 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 8:26:30 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
instinct wrote:
bartum wrote:
This time round i will load like never before.another opportunity to be multi milli


with an imminent Uhuruto 2nd term i wont be that determined..


The government in power does not determine the direction of the market. Neither does politics, central bank and so many other things that people focus on. Only people's mass psychology, which is patterned according to the Wave Principle, does.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
lochaz-index
#1432 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 8:30:38 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
snipermnoma wrote:
Today a new multi-year low was set at 3,796.49 for the NSE 20. Not since mid 2012 have we had the index this low...that sinking feeling is beginning to set in. EABL and KCB are now sliding. Equity is caving in and yet safaricom has not fully joined the fray. What will happen once safaricom goes through a slump? Things are unfolding fast.

As long as NSE20 closed 2015 without a solid foothold on the critical 4000 handle it only meant the bear will get muscular. Then add USD capital flight that means emerging markets have no legs as funds get pulled out. Then add gok mismanagement to spice things up plus elections. One heck of a lethal cocktail to knockout even a dead-cold drunkard!

We're just getting started. Bears travel very swiftly unlike bulls.



You had warned us that last year was just the beginning and the way this year has started, you were right.
On the last day of trading I noted they tried to make the index gain many points and it crossed that psychological 4000 point mark. Clearly a that was in vain.
This bear run I'm looking to benefit from the low prices and hold to eye opening gains in the next few years. It's like the 2011 bus came back to pick more passengers because that bull run was short.


@aguy,I still expect the NSE20 to cave to sub 3000. Once we are there this will no longer be the 2011 mini-bear but the 2008 grizzly one.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#1433 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 8:57:17 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
http://www.marketwatch.c...ally-arrived-2016-01-20

There are four psychological stages that people go through during a bear market. Right now, investors know the market is struggling but most believe it will come back. In fact, many see this as a buying opportunity. Here are the four stages:

Stage 1: Denial

Right now, we’re in the denial stage. Anyone who is bullish is too stubborn to change his or her view. Many people have their head in the sand, and some may not even look at their January statements. Many believe the market will come back. Right now, many are still buying the dips, which does not work in a bear market. This is similar to what has happened to oil.

Stage 2: High Anxiety

In this stage, many investors are like a deer in the headlights. They are frozen and nervous but don’t do anything. They are told by brokers and financial experts to stay calm and don’t panic. We haven’t reached this stage yet.

Stage 3: Fear

In this stage, the rampant bulls finally realize they are in trouble. If they have bought stocks on margin, they might be getting calls from their broker to add money to losing positions. In this stage, they are watching in fear as their portfolio burns. They reluctantly start to take action as fear increases. Often they say to themselves, “When my stock gets back to even, I will sell.”

Stage 4: Panic

This is what I call the “uncle” stage. This is when panicked investors throw in the towel and take action. They want to get out of the market while they still have something left. At this stage, there is huge downside volume and double-digit declines on the indexes. At the end of Stage 4, many people vow to never buy stocks again. We are not even close to this stage yet. Typically, we hit bottom when investors capitulate after losses of 20% to 50% in their stock portfolios.


At which stage do you think the NSE20 is parked?


The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
instinct
#1434 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 9:15:20 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
I've given up am not buying or selling anything in this market. Nangoja dividends sasa
maka
#1435 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 9:47:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
Gosh this prices...wololo
possunt quia posse videntur
littledove
#1436 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 10:08:52 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 904
Location: sky
lochaz-index wrote:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bear-market-in-stocks-has-finally-arrived-2016-01-20

There are four psychological stages that people go through during a bear market. Right now, investors know the market is struggling but most believe it will come back. In fact, many see this as a buying opportunity. Here are the four stages:

Stage 1: Denial

Right now, we’re in the denial stage. Anyone who is bullish is too stubborn to change his or her view. Many people have their head in the sand, and some may not even look at their January statements. Many believe the market will come back. Right now, many are still buying the dips, which does not work in a bear market. This is similar to what has happened to oil.

Stage 2: High Anxiety

In this stage, many investors are like a deer in the headlights. They are frozen and nervous but don’t do anything. They are told by brokers and financial experts to stay calm and don’t panic. We haven’t reached this stage yet.

Stage 3: Fear

In this stage, the rampant bulls finally realize they are in trouble. If they have bought stocks on margin, they might be getting calls from their broker to add money to losing positions. In this stage, they are watching in fear as their portfolio burns. They reluctantly start to take action as fear increases. Often they say to themselves, “When my stock gets back to even, I will sell.”

Stage 4: Panic

This is what I call the “uncle” stage. This is when panicked investors throw in the towel and take action. They want to get out of the market while they still have something left. At this stage, there is huge downside volume and double-digit declines on the indexes. At the end of Stage 4, many people vow to never buy stocks again. We are not even close to this stage yet. Typically, we hit bottom when investors capitulate after losses of 20% to 50% in their stock portfolios.


At which stage do you think the NSE20 is parked?



i think we are in stage 2, i have seen many brokers giving hope and encouraging investors to take advantage of low prices in many articles, the diminishing volumes shows many are "frozen and not doing anything" ie not selling or buying, yesterdays volume and decline in equity kcb and safcom especially towards midday shows we are entering stage 3 of fear
There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
mufasa
#1437 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 10:29:09 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 206
Stocks everywhere seems to be heading down, the NSE is quickly heading to the 3000 mark.This Oil price per barrel might just touch $20 before mid year. Like someone pointed out earlier, elections is around the corner and the governments poor accountability is also wanting etc.

Too many factors are conspiring against the "unjustified profits we have been making over the past bull runs"

Let me gather all the money that I can get and jump into this bear train before i'm left out (The bull train will probably be an electric train and we all know, you can't jump into an electric train once it starts moving)

Personally I think we are in stage 3. But stage 4 might not last very long
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
Aguytrying
#1438 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 1:42:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
We are in stage 2 currently, and very soon headed to stage 3.

If u want to know which stage we are just listen to @Spikes who has been very bullish.

@Spikes. If u want to survive this bear run read word for word the thread " how to tell the NSE has bottomed"
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
hisah
#1439 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 3:05:58 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Watch out for mpesa bank... The swift drops are coming!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Spikes
#1440 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2016 3:25:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
hisah wrote:
Watch out for mpesa bank... The swift drops are coming!


@hisah are you holding anything or as for you now cash is king?
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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