if we waited after the 2007 violence,i don't see any big deal provided we don't fight again,i was inspired by some syria investors still buying into stocks although their market has almost collapsed hoping some day fortunes will change

@VVS. because we can't predict the future, 2016 may be the year to buy. Those well laid plans can turn upside down. Coz the market had a mind of its own. The best way is to be guided by valuations of the stocks one wants to buy and strike when they are met.

The future can be predicted with reasonable accuracy. That is why one year ago I stated that stocks would be in a bear market and hence this thread in the first place. You just have to know what to look for.

Really?Make money now from TBills. Its rather obvious the rates are going up unless the GOK prints money.Foreign loan repayments due soon,your Governor will mis-use funds as usual and ask for more,civil servants will strike and will have to be paid since elections are nearby.....basically the GOK is pretty F'ed.Stocks are very very unlikely to rally till after elections.

Only problem now is oversubscription.

I'm maintaining/buying my t bills/mmf at 30-40%. And buying stocks when they reach my valuation thresholds.

Extreme pessimism in oil. Time for it to rally some.

KESUSD has been range bound around 102. Extpecting a quick drop below 100 soon ie strength to KES, weakness to USD.

Kenya is better served with lower interest rates than a 'stronger' KES. Our farmers, industrialists, home owners, banks and even KRA/GoK benefit more from lower interest rates vs a stronger KES which just encourages imports of consumables.

The fact of the NSE 20 Share index gropping for below 3830 gives me confidence that the bear market in stocks is here to stay and will likely get worse. It should be awakening call for most.



The NSE 20 Share Index started its journey in 1966 at 100. The data available to me on the index is as shown in the chart above from ft.com. The most important thing is that the data fits perfectly into Elliott Waves as they should (after all we are tracking mass human psychology). From this we can proceed to 'predict' the future!

Wave (A) ended at 2360.01 in Mar', 2009.
Wave (B) ended at 5499.64 in Mar', 2015.
The preferred Elliott count suggests that the fall from the 5499.64 level is a wave (C) which has much further to drop.

We can target the final low for the NSE 20 share index which I expect to occur probably in 2017.

Assuming that the movement from 100 to the ultimate high of 6161.46 (on Jan', 2007) is one major Impulse wave, then the waves (A), (B) and (C) are its correction (a wave two). Second waves usually retrace a Fibonacci 61.8 or 78.6% of wave one. Thus:

{6161.46 -( 0.618 X (6161.46 - 100))} = 2415.48

And

{6161.46 - ( 0.786 X (6161 - 100))} = 1397.15


Also, if wave (C) be equal to wave (A) then:

Wave (C) bottom = { 5499.64 - (6161.46-2360.01) } = 1698.19

So targets for wave (C) and thus the ultimate bottom for the NSE 20 Share Index are 2415.48, 1698.19 or 1397.15.

The alternate scenario is that wave (B) is not complete and thus a move above 5499.64 is in the cards. I give this scenario a low probability since the proposed wave (B) would appear too stretched.

Analysis of the shorter term will show in these pages soon.

#BEST.

As expected NY session is a sea of red...