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hisah
#4681 Posted : Saturday, January 09, 2016 11:45:41 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
streetwise wrote:
Now you know our NSE ndio baba yao. let them that pulled their money out to invest in those market come back to NSE we may be willing to offer them a few shares.

KES assets vs USD assets. No contest there. Capital is flying into USD and it doesn't care about anything else! It'll be very hard to compete with the ensuing USD stampede. So imagine the upcoming momentum spike when Fed hikes again and maybe another time before year end... Pray


What is likely to happen to the NSE and the KES in particular

Unless gok can device creative ways to attract capital the bear pressure will sustain. The bond market is already sending bad signals. Undersubscribed tax free bonds since Dec 2015 d'oh!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Saturday, January 09, 2016 11:48 AM | Reason: Not specified
mlennyma
#4682 Posted : Saturday, January 09, 2016 12:11:43 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
streetwise wrote:
Now you know our NSE ndio baba yao. let them that pulled their money out to invest in those market come back to NSE we may be willing to offer them a few shares.

KES assets vs USD assets. No contest there. Capital is flying into USD and it doesn't care about anything else! It'll be very hard to compete with the ensuing USD stampede. So imagine the upcoming momentum spike when Fed hikes again and maybe another time before year end... Pray


What is likely to happen to the NSE and the KES in particular

Unless gok can device creative ways to attract capital the bear pressure will sustain. The bond market is already sending bad signals. Undersubscribed tax free bonds since Dec 2015 d'oh!

the economic mis management is likely to continue until 2022,Kenya's magufuli is nowhere in sight
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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  | | Edit by user: Saturday, January 09, 2016 12:54 PM | Reason: Not specified
hisah
#4683 Posted : Monday, January 11, 2016 5:58:50 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
murchr wrote:
hisah wrote:
The Yuan is already warning to get ready for a strong dollar. Chingland will struggle keeping capital in China. This will test to the limit the chingland miracle economy! Capital controls will get ugly there, which will worsen the capital flight! Commodities are indeed on course for a big crash! Get ready!

Image courtesy of XE.com - USD-CNY 10yr chart.


Target is GFC peg fix at 6.83. Break above will mean the USD will be racing back to the 2006 level around 8.0.


Look at the Russian Ruble against the Emerging Markets. Zuma has no idea what hit him

The rand is definitely headed past the 20 handle vs $. Meltdown mode! The SA civil fabric will crack under this stress. This year's local government elections will test ANC's popularity to the core.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Cde Monomotapa
#4684 Posted : Monday, January 11, 2016 7:27:20 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
hisah wrote:
The Yuan is already warning to get ready for a strong dollar. Chingland will struggle keeping capital in China. This will test to the limit the chingland miracle economy! Capital controls will get ugly there, which will worsen the capital flight! Commodities are indeed on course for a big crash! Get ready!

Image courtesy of XE.com - USD-CNY 10yr chart.


Target is GFC peg fix at 6.83. Break above will mean the USD will be racing back to the 2006 level around 8.0.


Good one @lochaz and @hisah how about finding the inflection of USD deficit draw down supply while RMB demand escalates to reflect SDR quotas in run up to Oct. 2016. The easier to monitor is PBOC devaluations in that time. Could be a good punt?


http://www.cnbc.com/2016...e-as-japanese-sell.html & R+G=Y
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, January 11, 2016 7:34 AM | Reason: Not specified
lochaz-index
#4685 Posted : Monday, January 11, 2016 6:10:21 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
hisah wrote:
The Yuan is already warning to get ready for a strong dollar. Chingland will struggle keeping capital in China. This will test to the limit the chingland miracle economy! Capital controls will get ugly there, which will worsen the capital flight! Commodities are indeed on course for a big crash! Get ready!

Image courtesy of XE.com - USD-CNY 10yr chart.


Target is GFC peg fix at 6.83. Break above will mean the USD will be racing back to the 2006 level around 8.0.


Good one @lochaz and @hisah how about finding the inflection of USD deficit draw down supply while RMB demand escalates to reflect SDR quotas in run up to Oct. 2016. The easier to monitor is PBOC devaluations in that time. Could be a good punt?


http://www.cnbc.com/2016...e-as-japanese-sell.html & R+G=Y


PBOC looking disorderly policy wise. They had better pull a fast one on their currency or the market will force their hand one way or another. The latter will not be a happy ending since you can't strong arm the market.

In other news, how the yen is still regarded as a safe haven beats me... It has performed remarkably well against the USD in this chaotic chapter.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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¿
#4686 Posted : Tuesday, January 12, 2016 8:15:25 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/4/2015
Posts: 604
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lochaz-index
#4687 Posted : Wednesday, January 13, 2016 11:13:18 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
http://www.marketwatch.c...-big-problem-2016-01-12
A sneak preview of the real problems facing China. The stock market crash is a mere appetizer for the real showdowns aka real estate collapse, enterprise/industrial overcapacity and the knock on effect they will both have on its financial sector. Couple that with the fact that the central government has been bailing debt ridden municipals and at the same time trying to stabilize the yuan then you realise that it could get ugly very fast.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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lochaz-index
#4688 Posted : Wednesday, January 13, 2016 11:23:59 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
¿ wrote:
UBS: Give up on stocks this year and buy gold

RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears

Bearish J.P Morgan says sell stocks on any rally


I don't like this bear chorus being bleated this loud. Isn't it a bit odd that the same people telling investors to sell were the same ones publishing bullish stock estimates for 2016 at the end of 2015. A week of stock market sell-offs causes seismic shifts in perceptions/forecasts... Recency bias.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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murchr
#4689 Posted : Wednesday, January 13, 2016 7:27:43 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
hisah wrote:
murchr wrote:
Crude going down down....causing panic

Throwback Dec 17 2014 Bloomberg


Article : Crude was $60 then. A year later $36

If crude closes below 35 this year that will signal a shift from high prices to lower prices for a long time! The strong USD will continue frying the commodity market.


Hisah translate this in laymans language

"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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hisah
#4690 Posted : Thursday, January 14, 2016 12:14:26 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
murchr wrote:
hisah wrote:
murchr wrote:
Crude going down down....causing panic

Throwback Dec 17 2014 Bloomberg


Article : Crude was $60 then. A year later $36

If crude closes below 35 this year that will signal a shift from high prices to lower prices for a long time! The strong USD will continue frying the commodity market.


Hisah translate this in laymans language


Oil closed the year below $35. The high to low price shift has been triggered!

In short, global economy will go in winter as deflation spreads across the globe.

Effects:
- Strong USD/ rocket $ (capital flight into $)
- Commodities crash (deflation triggered)
- Shipping activity crash (deflation triggered)
- High yield credit market crash (debt unwind coz of rocket $ - sovereign debt crisis/junk bond collapse)
- alternate currencies (e.g. Cyptocurrencies/bitcoin etc) will sprout as fiat currencies devalue rapidly. At this point gold will become inverse to the weak commodities trend and start rallying.

I've had the $15 oil target for a long period... Unless a miracle or war happens I dont see this trend changing for quite some years.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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