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Athi River Mining - HY Ksh. 355.8 million loss
whiteowl
#21 Posted : Tuesday, October 06, 2015 10:30:54 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
Gatheuzi wrote:
AKS thinks the price will go up 4 fold Shame on you




His optimism betrays him.
sparkly
#22 Posted : Monday, December 28, 2015 11:15:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
whiteowl wrote:
Gatheuzi wrote:
AKS thinks the price will go up 4 fold Shame on you




His optimism betrays him.


ARM to raise 12B from convertible debt


www.standardmedia.co.ke/...-inject-sh12-8b-into-arm
Life is short. Live passionately.
obiero
#23 Posted : Tuesday, December 29, 2015 12:50:44 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,549
Location: nairobi
sparkly wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
Gatheuzi wrote:
AKS thinks the price will go up 4 fold Shame on you




His optimism betrays him.


ARM to raise 12B from convertible debt


www.standardmedia.co.ke/...-inject-sh12-8b-into-arm

Mawadada za AKS.. Maybe 3 fold

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
VituVingiSana
#24 Posted : Monday, January 11, 2016 10:35:20 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Almost there! http://www.businessdaily.../-/ouovy9z/-/index.html If ARM does get the equity, it could ease the debt burden. I would like to see the terms of the deal before I commit to buying ARM shares.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#25 Posted : Tuesday, January 12, 2016 6:13:23 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,702
Location: NAIROBI
Of course it had to be an Indian firm;shafting of shareholders continues.
First you get measly dividends in the name of pumping money to the company for expansion,share price one of the worst performers then now this.
Cashflow in a company is a very important element to look at when one wants to invest in it.
Companies have very weak cash flows then report book profits to fool shareholders yet in reality the company is struggling
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
kasibitta
#26 Posted : Tuesday, January 12, 2016 10:28:59 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/7/2014
Posts: 155
Ericsson wrote:
Of course it had to be an Indian firm;shafting of shareholders continues.
First you get measly dividends in the name of pumping money to the company for expansion,share price one of the worst performers then now this.
Cashflow in a company is a very important element to look at when one wants to invest in it.
Companies have very weak cash flows then report book profits to fool shareholders yet in reality the company is struggling


The health of the cashflow statement is very key.I have come to accept it as a key determinant and not those funny profits reported by many.
Othelo
#27 Posted : Tuesday, January 12, 2016 10:36:16 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
But at least their expansion will pay off in the long run ..... 2020 or thereabout once they get to manage their debt portfolio!!!
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
Ericsson
#28 Posted : Tuesday, January 12, 2016 10:49:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,702
Location: NAIROBI
@Othelo
Don't be so sure competition is thick and cut throat
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
mibbz
#29 Posted : Tuesday, January 12, 2016 12:43:34 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
Gatheuzi wrote:
AKS thinks the price will go up 4 fold Shame on you





I think using this logic where gross revenues are being compared to market cap and claiming the company is undervalued is flawed.

Of importance is the net profit per tonne especially after factoring in their debt.

Plus that purchase by the Indian cement company is bound to result in dilution of shareholders or a similar scenario like in TransCentury where more cash shall be required to bail out the struggling firm in 5-6 years.
VituVingiSana
#30 Posted : Tuesday, January 12, 2016 12:59:49 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
Of course it had to be an Indian firm;
The world's largest cement company is out of the running since it owns Bamburi. Dangote is building his own plant but with the Naira in trouble he needs to slow down & look after his Nigerian operations. I think Orascom also sold out to one of the Big 3. The Mexicans [Slim] is more interested in the Americas.
That narrows down the contenders to the Chinese or Indians.

shafting of shareholders continues. I like ARM but have always found it pricey but I regret not going in early on when it was trading at below 10. The pricing then became silly with huge PERs & P/B. What I like is the CEO (& family) are major shareholders. That said, do they get something on the side?
First you get measly dividends in the name of pumping money to the company for expansion, Did you buy ARM for dividends? ARM told folks the dividends will be measly despite reported profits. Centum went one step ahead & said no dividends. Berkshire Hathaway does the same. Until recently, Unga paid measly dividends as it paid down debt. Williamson used to pay lousy dividends to use the cash to pay down debt. Another is DTB which pay tiny dividends but needs small Rights Issues as it expands. Jubilee is another.
share price one of the worst performers then now this.

Cashflow in a company is a very important element to look at when one wants to invest in it.
Companies have very weak cash flows then report book profits to fool shareholders yet in reality the company is struggling
And that is very, very, very important.

I want to see the terms [before I invest] but I don't think Pradeep is going to sell cheap BUT he may have to take a haircut if he doesn't want ARM to suffer loan defaults!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#31 Posted : Tuesday, January 12, 2016 1:01:20 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
mibbz wrote:
Gatheuzi wrote:
AKS thinks the price will go up 4 fold Shame on you





I think using this logic where gross revenues are being compared to market cap and claiming the company is undervalued is flawed.

Of importance is the net profit per tonne especially after factoring in their debt.

Plus that purchase by the Indian cement company is bound to result in dilution of shareholders or a similar scenario like in TransCentury where more cash shall be required to bail out the struggling firm in 5-6 years.

The proof in the pudding is whether AKS eats his own cooking. I am staying away from ARM until I know more. BTW, this is why I picked Bamburi as one of my LIFETIME holdings. Little debt.

Despite all the good stuff one thinks there is... If you do not trust the management/board, then do not invest. Simple.

My no-go firms include Olympia, Express, KQ, GoK firms [except KenRe & perhaps KCB and in the distant future KPLC], HAFR, etc among others. For such firms' the PER & PB will only take you so far.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Aguytrying
#32 Posted : Tuesday, January 12, 2016 4:10:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
I was salivating on this share but no more until the dust settles on the dilution. That said it's good for the company, for shareholders? We'll have to wait and see the details
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#33 Posted : Wednesday, January 13, 2016 1:56:23 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
SIB

We update our share recommendations for ARM and Bamburi ahead of FY15 results announcements.

In 2014, ARM’s revenue declined 4.1%y/y missing our forecasts by 14.6% (cement revenue was 16% below forecasts). Bamburi on the other hand reversed its 2013 9.5%y/y drop to grow 6.2%y/y (2.5% above target). EBITDA margins shrunk 67bpy/y and 35bpy/y – ARM missed our forecasts by 231bp but Bamburi beat our forecasts by 201bp. At 20.3%, ARM’s EBITDA margin remained above Bamburi’s for the fourth consecutive year. ARM’s EPS growth (+10.1%y/y) came in 9.2% below forecast, while Bamburi’s 2.6%y/y growth resulted in above forecast EPS (+9.0%).

In 1H15, ARM posted 1.6%y/y revenue growth but 142%y/y decline in EPS. Even after excluding unrealized FOREX losses, PBT was down 24.3%y/y – owing to 183%y/y jump in finance costs (driven by KES depreciation, higher rates on outstanding commercial paper and reduced interest capitalization). Cement revenue performance disappointed (-10.6%y/y) while low margin fertilizer sales grew 233%y/y. Over the same period, supported by increased domestic sales of its high grade cement (mainly used for infrastructure projects) and exports into Inland Africa (high margin markets), Bamburi registered 11.7%y/y and 77.4%y/y growth in revenue and EPS respectively.

Key FY15 forecast adjustments. Guided by improved 1H15 revenues for the 5 listed cement companies (3 in Kenya and 2 in Tanzania) in a weak pricing environment, we have revised our cement consumption estimates upwards (Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania) by 1.9% to 11.39mtpa (+12.1%y/y growth). Owing to delay in commissioning of the Tanga grinding line (expected in 2H14, but now pushed out to 1H16) and increased competition in Tanzania, we have cut ARM’s revenue forecast by 17.5%. For Bamburi, we have increased our FY15 revenue forecasts by 9.1%. On EBITDA margins, we have increased Bamburi’s (+201bp) but cut ARM’s (-231bp).

Our revised EPS estimates stand at KES 0.08 from KES 5.14 (ARM) and KES 14.95 from KES 12.76 (Bamburi).

Valuations and recommendations. In 2015, ARM’s share price declined 51.5% while Bamburi gained 25.9%. Against our updated fair values (ARM KES 35.47 from KES 69.78 and Bamburi KES 201.27 from KES 202.67), we retain our SELL recommendation for ARM (11.4% downside) and BUY recommendation for Bamburi (+18.4% upside). Against our FY15 forecasts, ARM is currently trading at 11.2x EV/EBITDA, against Bamburi’s 5.4x.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
murchr
#34 Posted : Friday, February 05, 2016 4:29:20 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Are we likely to see 20s as from today
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Aguytrying
#35 Posted : Friday, February 05, 2016 7:45:13 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
murchr wrote:
Are we likely to see 20s as from today


Whoa. The dilution happening to ARM is not small.

Current market cap at 35.00 is 17.5bn Kes

Incoming investment of preference shares is 12.5 bn Kes

After crunching some hypothetical numbers the eps will be diluted to become 55% of what it currently is. The last good/normal year it was 3.01 eps. 55% of 3.01 is 1.66 eps.

Current PE is 11.75, assuming this is maintained 11.75*1.66= 19.75.

So 1 ARM share should be at 19.75 when you factor in the dilution.

( some may argue. But they are preference shares? True, but the earn dividends and they WILL be converted, so other than not trading, they are dilutive to the equity, it would be wrong not to include them in the valuation)

If you use a pe of 10. 16.60 Kes per share.

Let's await the final numbers on the shares that will be issued, but it won't be far from this, depending on arm negotiating skills, I've pegged investors to buy price at 30.00 per share.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Ericsson
#36 Posted : Monday, February 29, 2016 10:34:23 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,702
Location: NAIROBI
ARM Cement is this week expected to make public the entry of Africa Development Bank (AFDB) as it new investor through allocation of preference shares converted from debts.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Chaka
#37 Posted : Monday, February 29, 2016 11:45:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/16/2007
Posts: 2,114
Ericsson wrote:
ARM Cement is this week expected to make public the entry of Africa Development Bank (AFDB) as it new investor through allocation of preference shares converted from debts.

Talks with India's UltraTech flopped?
VituVingiSana
#38 Posted : Monday, February 29, 2016 11:26:56 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Chaka wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
ARM Cement is this week expected to make public the entry of Africa Development Bank (AFDB) as it new investor through allocation of preference shares converted from debts.

Talks with India's UltraTech flopped?
Perhaps AFDB wanted less than what UltraTech wanted but the latter can provide technical support.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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