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Home Afrika Listing at NSE!
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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My first red flag with HAFR was when i went to their building morning side to get previous final reports and i was denied The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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dunkang wrote:sparkly wrote:HAL acreage:
Migaa = 774
Kikwetu = 1,000
Llango = 21
Lakeview = 91
Total = 1,886
Market Cap at 2.25 per share = KShs 911,824,470
Therefore Market valuation of company per acre = 911,824,470/1,886= KShs 483,470
Brother, the ownership structure of the "lands" and the "houses" will shock you. Who owns what, who funds which, who pays what, etc etc etc. e.g. Only 60% of Migaa is owned by the Listed Home Afrika Limited. The other 40% is owned by Tulip and Linyati equally. Now, if i may ask you, do you know who takes the loans? who funds what? who pays who? HAL owns 60% of the acreage 60%*1,886=1,132. Therefore valuation of raw land per acre is 911,824,470/1,132= KShs 805,500 per acre. What is the outstanding loan amount? I am aware of the Kshs 500m bank loans. The search for the fair value continues. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Pesa Nane wrote:MaichBlack wrote:sparkly wrote:HAL acreage:
Migaa = 774
Kikwetu = 1,000
Llango = 21
Lakeview = 91
Total = 1,886
Market Cap at 2.25 per share = KShs 911,824,470
Therefore Market valuation of company per acre = 911,824,470/1,886= KShs 483,470
The company has no liabilities??? One last time, they are NOT developing with own money to sell later (and declare the kill)! They are developing with loans, deposits and in the process SELLING OFF the units as losses continue. Projects will come online when fully sold. Forget a windfall on completion. @Pesanane: You lost me on the developing with own money to make a kill. Deposits are advance purchase payments by the plot/house buyers. They are not yet recognized as revenue but this does not mean that the deposits will be returned. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:Home Afrika and Transcentury are so similar. The are basically private clubs that eventually listed. Before being private clubs they were chamas.
I refused to invest in both for the same reasons.
1. Over valued by a factor. Transcentury it was x5,
home afrika x6. ( Listing with such an over valuation is a red flag, and contains insincere motives which became evident when major shareholders sold out)
2. I did not trust the management End of Story. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi
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dunkang wrote:sparkly wrote:HAL acreage:
Migaa = 774
Kikwetu = 1,000
Llango = 21
Lakeview = 91
Total = 1,886
Market Cap at 2.25 per share = KShs 911,824,470
Therefore Market valuation of company per acre = 911,824,470/1,886= KShs 483,470
Brother, the ownership structure of the "lands" and the "houses" will shock you. Who owns what, who funds which, who pays what, etc etc etc. e.g. Only 60% of Migaa is owned by the Listed Home Afrika Limited. The other 40% is owned by Tulip and Linyati equally. Now, if i may ask you, do you know who takes the loans? who funds what? who pays who? Bingo. These deals have JVs, loans, loans on shares in JVs, etc. And if one part fails, there is a domino effect on the other parts. Banks/Lenders often ask for cross-collateralization. Talk to friends who are Loan Officers or Credit Analysts. Folks are falling behind on payments and banks are worried about NPLs. With the current high interest rate [20%] regime the NPLs will show up in 2016. I know folks who have taken PERSONAL loans & invested in real estate but on the banks' books the loan is 'personal' or 'trade financing'. Some developers [with other businesses] take a 'trade finance' loan [loan officer is complicit] to import tiles/roofing/finishes for their development. If the housing units do not sell, the loan goes into default and his biashara also suffers. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:Pesa Nane wrote:MaichBlack wrote:sparkly wrote:HAL acreage:
Migaa = 774
Kikwetu = 1,000
Llango = 21
Lakeview = 91
Total = 1,886
Market Cap at 2.25 per share = KShs 911,824,470
Therefore Market valuation of company per acre = 911,824,470/1,886= KShs 483,470
The company has no liabilities??? One last time, they are NOT developing with own money to sell later (and declare the kill)! They are developing with loans, deposits and in the process SELLING OFF the units as losses continue. Projects will come online when fully sold. Forget a windfall on completion. @Pesanane: You lost me on the developing with own money to make a kill. Deposits are advance purchase payments by the plot/house buyers. They are not yet recognized as revenue but this does not mean that the deposits will be returned. A Client/Buyer's "Deposit" is a "Liability" for HAFR which account for the Cash as an Asset. Then the Cash Asset is 'converted' into an Asset called Work-In-Progress which will finally be Inventory. The Inventory will be sold/transferred to the Buyer. CONSERVATIVE Upon the sale, the entire deposit + any other payments made by the Buyer will be considered "Income" and the "COGS" aka Cost of the Inventory (House) will be deducted to generate the "Gross Profit" ... then there are other expenses eg admin, interest, etc. AGGRESSIVE Centum does it differently by revaluing the project as it is ongoing so the 'profits' are not shown at the end of the project but as it is being developed. There are merits for both arguments but these depend on the product, sector, laws/guidelines, taxation and Company Policy. The auditors also have a say. *I am not endorsing HAFR or Centum. Please do your own research. I have never bought HAFR but bailed out of Centum a little too early.* Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:Pesa Nane wrote:MaichBlack wrote:sparkly wrote:HAL acreage:
Migaa = 774
Kikwetu = 1,000
Llango = 21
Lakeview = 91
Total = 1,886
Market Cap at 2.25 per share = KShs 911,824,470
Therefore Market valuation of company per acre = 911,824,470/1,886= KShs 483,470
The company has no liabilities??? One last time, they are NOT developing with own money to sell later (and declare the kill)! They are developing with loans, deposits and in the process SELLING OFF the units as losses continue. Projects will come online when fully sold. Forget a windfall on completion. @Pesanane: You lost me on the developing with own money to make a kill. Deposits are advance purchase payments by the plot/house buyers. They are not yet recognized as revenue but this does not mean that the deposits will be returned. A Client/Buyer's "Deposit" is a "Liability" for HAFR which account for the Cash as an Asset. Then the Cash Asset is 'converted' into an Asset called Work-In-Progress which will finally be Inventory. The Inventory will be sold/transferred to the Buyer. CONSERVATIVE Upon the sale, the entire deposit + any other payments made by the Buyer will be considered "Income" and the "COGS" aka Cost of the Inventory (House) will be deducted to generate the "Gross Profit" ... then there are other expenses eg admin, interest, etc. AGGRESSIVE Centum does it differently by revaluing the project as it is ongoing so the 'profits' are not shown at the end of the project but as it is being developed. There are merits for both arguments but these depend on the product, sector, laws/guidelines, taxation and Company Policy. The auditors also have a say. *I am not endorsing HAFR or Centum. Please do your own research. I have never bought HAFR but bailed out of Centum a little too early.* @VVS thanks for the perspective. Truly wewe ni vitu vingi. I am on a quest to establish a fair value range for HAL seeing that management is very economical with the truth. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. We might get a lifetime buy opportunity esp in this bear. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:Pesa Nane wrote:MaichBlack wrote:sparkly wrote:HAL acreage:
Migaa = 774
Kikwetu = 1,000
Llango = 21
Lakeview = 91
Total = 1,886
Market Cap at 2.25 per share = KShs 911,824,470
Therefore Market valuation of company per acre = 911,824,470/1,886= KShs 483,470
The company has no liabilities??? One last time, they are NOT developing with own money to sell later (and declare the kill)! They are developing with loans, deposits and in the process SELLING OFF the units as losses continue. Projects will come online when fully sold. Forget a windfall on completion. @Pesanane: You lost me on the developing with own money to make a kill. Deposits are advance purchase payments by the plot/house buyers. They are not yet recognized as revenue but this does not mean that the deposits will be returned. A Client/Buyer's "Deposit" is a "Liability" for HAFR which account for the Cash as an Asset. Then the Cash Asset is 'converted' into an Asset called Work-In-Progress which will finally be Inventory. The Inventory will be sold/transferred to the Buyer. CONSERVATIVE Upon the sale, the entire deposit + any other payments made by the Buyer will be considered "Income" and the "COGS" aka Cost of the Inventory (House) will be deducted to generate the "Gross Profit" ... then there are other expenses eg admin, interest, etc. AGGRESSIVE Centum does it differently by revaluing the project as it is ongoing so the 'profits' are not shown at the end of the project but as it is being developed. There are merits for both arguments but these depend on the product, sector, laws/guidelines, taxation and Company Policy. The auditors also have a say. *I am not endorsing HAFR or Centum. Please do your own research. I have never bought HAFR but bailed out of Centum a little too early.* @VVS thanks for the perspective. Truly wewe ni vitu vingi. I am on a quest to establish a fair value range for HAL seeing that management is very economical with the truth. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. We might get a lifetime buy opportunity esp in this bear. There are 1,440 minutes in a day and you want to waste 1438 minutes to catch the 2 minutes in the day? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:Pesa Nane wrote:MaichBlack wrote:sparkly wrote:HAL acreage:
Migaa = 774
Kikwetu = 1,000
Llango = 21
Lakeview = 91
Total = 1,886
Market Cap at 2.25 per share = KShs 911,824,470
Therefore Market valuation of company per acre = 911,824,470/1,886= KShs 483,470
The company has no liabilities??? One last time, they are NOT developing with own money to sell later (and declare the kill)! They are developing with loans, deposits and in the process SELLING OFF the units as losses continue. Projects will come online when fully sold. Forget a windfall on completion. @Pesanane: You lost me on the developing with own money to make a kill. Deposits are advance purchase payments by the plot/house buyers. They are not yet recognized as revenue but this does not mean that the deposits will be returned. A Client/Buyer's "Deposit" is a "Liability" for HAFR which account for the Cash as an Asset. Then the Cash Asset is 'converted' into an Asset called Work-In-Progress which will finally be Inventory. The Inventory will be sold/transferred to the Buyer. CONSERVATIVE Upon the sale, the entire deposit + any other payments made by the Buyer will be considered "Income" and the "COGS" aka Cost of the Inventory (House) will be deducted to generate the "Gross Profit" ... then there are other expenses eg admin, interest, etc. AGGRESSIVE Centum does it differently by revaluing the project as it is ongoing so the 'profits' are not shown at the end of the project but as it is being developed. There are merits for both arguments but these depend on the product, sector, laws/guidelines, taxation and Company Policy. The auditors also have a say. *I am not endorsing HAFR or Centum. Please do your own research. I have never bought HAFR but bailed out of Centum a little too early.* @VVS thanks for the perspective. Truly wewe ni vitu vingi. I am on a quest to establish a fair value range for HAL seeing that management is very economical with the truth. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. We might get a lifetime buy opportunity esp in this bear. There are 1,440 minutes in a day and you want to waste 1438 minutes to catch the 2 minutes in the day? If can do in 2 minutes what others do in 1438 minutes :d/ Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,194 Location: nairobi
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People are about to suffer a 50% loss in days "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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