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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Morning. EURUSD can be sold at 1.0750 with a 40 pip SL at 1.0790. There is likely another round of short selling coming up in the pair. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:hisah wrote:Since last year I've indicated that the pound will snap and it has been sliding since June 2014. The volume traded in the GBP futures in Sept was the highest in 10yrs! If my hunch is right the pound will lose value very rapidly when the next down leg starts. Is the pound about to fall again like back in 1991 during the ERM crisis? Also keenly watching GBP$. Should give nice pips soon. Btw I rarely trade GBP$ I prefer the beast (GBP/yen) and minor/exotic GBP crosses. Though they charge a higher spread, but when you catch the right move, the pips rain like a storm 
Note: Trading minor or exotic crosses is highly not recommended for beginners (very volatile due to thin liquidity) as well as for accounts with <$10,000 coz of the heavy margin requirements.
 I am in on the GBPJPY SHORT. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Also sell USDJPY with SL at 123.60 and aim for about 160 pips. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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EU leadership also full of ex le squid persons. It's no longer a conspiracy theory. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:Retails still buying into the oversold euro. Deer in headlights moment. The USD index chart pattern clearly warns not to stand infront of the USD charge. Shorting the $ is dangerous as the rally resumes. They'll be time to short the dollar when this one sided rally ends. For now follow the overall trend. Last week's low taken out. On the monthly scope the EUR$ aims for 1.04 or lower. Definitely the euro will gap down then turn the tide vs USD after this crash very soon. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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Ceinz wrote:1300 pip move in USDCHF, IMHO you don't stop a moving train, clever is to ride along:: the train is this dollar bull. So here we got this pair, on the monthly (this is a big chart), so may be can take about 3 months  On the monthly, I spot a double bottom .7078 & .8275, currently price dancing about parity(which is slightly above 23 fibo retracement of the move 1.8230 -0.7078) My expectation: price move from current level (Parity) to about 1.1360, which is 38 fibo retracement of the above move. Plan: Build up positions on retracements and take profits on sufficient up move, enjoy Dollar still reigns, pays to follow the trend just like Hisah is calling out on that EU short. Time for shorting the dollar will come, but not now, and may be not this year. “small step for man”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Gold and EUR about to fall off the cliff vs $. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Finnish parliament will debate next year leaving the eurozoneMatters euro getting critical. This year the swiss discarded the euro peg. Next year finland has a referendum to decide if they will stay in EU. In 2017 UK also has a ref to decide whether to join the EU. Catalans also want out of the EU in 2017 if they secede from spain. 2017 looks poised to be the peak of euro! If the euro does derail the USD will get very expensive and worse if the fed hikes its rate! The ripple effect will be sovereign debt crisis on a global scale! I'm watching this with hawk eyes. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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A Swiss bank is about to charge customers a negative interest rateQuote:A tiny Swiss bank specialised in financing social and environmental projects will on January 1 go where no retail lender has gone before, applying negative interest rates on individual clients. This NIR biz is going to ensure that euroland blows up. My long term projection is once the EU loses public trust the euro is going to crater and become less expensive than the USD. Something like $=1.20 euros!!! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,559 Location: nairobi
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hisah wrote:A Swiss bank is about to charge customers a negative interest rateQuote:A tiny Swiss bank specialised in financing social and environmental projects will on January 1 go where no retail lender has gone before, applying negative interest rates on individual clients. This NIR biz is going to ensure that euroland blows up. My long term projection is once the EU loses public trust the euro is going to crater and become less expensive than the USD. Something like $=1.20 euros!!! NGOs already do this.. No commercial bank should take this path. I personally wld never bank my hard earned cash in such an entity
COOP 70,000 ABP 15.20; HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 A major BULLISH move is developing in GBPUSD with targets of either 500 pips or failure of that the next target is >1100 pips as shown by the blue lines. I suggest going long at 1.5000 level or slightly below that with a SL at 1.4890. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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EURUSD Forecast from Elliott Wave InternationalConventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Consensus reads 76% for a Federal fund rate hike! If the Fed doesn't hike the rate expect crazy volatility this week. Whichever way things pan out there is very high probability that volatility will be high in Jan 2016. Gold is rallying a similar way it did on Dec 11. This won't end well for the longs! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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A hike of 0.25% it is. Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Next year the awesome trade will be selling pounds. Since 2014 the pound selling is gathering momentum. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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Ceinz wrote:Ceinz wrote:1300 pip move in USDCHF, IMHO you don't stop a moving train, clever is to ride along:: the train is this dollar bull. So here we got this pair, on the monthly (this is a big chart), so may be can take about 3 months On the monthly, I spot a double bottom .7078 & .8275, currently price dancing about parity(which is slightly above 23 fibo retracement of the move 1.8230 -0.7078) My expectation: price move from current level (Parity) to about 1.1360, which is 38 fibo retracement of the above move. Plan: Build up positions on retracements and take profits on sufficient up move, enjoy Dollar still reigns, pays to follow the trend just like Hisah is calling out on that EU short. Time for shorting the dollar will come, but not now, and may be not this year. Guess I was overly optimistic, Prices generally consolidated, but seems like was building momentum. On my radar as we start the year is this pair and EU, my expectation is still strong dollar vs these two. Enjoy your trades, happy 2016. “small step for man”
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/4/2015 Posts: 604
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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GBPJPY has fallen to a level I predicted a month ago. Expecting a rally now. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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My earlier outlook for a bull run in GU did not work out. However, this one below should.  Unless 1.4033 (the red line) is broken, I expect GU to rally strongly for at least 2000 pips (the two blue lines) in wave (2). Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 Expecting Gold to drop to 1030.92 in wave (b). Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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