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KenolKobil FY 2016
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VituVingiSana
#1 Posted : Monday, January 04, 2016 12:16:40 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Even though we wait for KK's FY 2015 Results, we are in a new year and let's 'forecast' what 2016 could bring for KK.

1) Low(er) oil prices = higher GPM ... Brent is at $37-ish for Feb delivery
2) Lower debt = lower financing costs = more profits [based on $37 oil]
3) More stations = more volumes
4) More products = increased sales [Castrol Lubes, etc]
5) Expanded footprint but some stations are being sold. I saw one in Mombasa up for sale. I am very disappointed that KK is selling some prime locations.
6) Burundi - Ouch! Ouch! Ouch! KK has invested a lot in Burundi but the violence will hurt sales, assets & profits. KK has been buying station in Burundi and these assets may be destroyed/damaged as well.
7) Useless African Currencies = Losses. Zambia Kwacha, Uganda Shs, TZ Shs, etc. These useless, crappy currencies are hurting the value of KK's assets & profits. KK borrowed in USD to fund these purchases but the value of the assets are in local crap. Very sad.
8) TZ - Despite Magufuli, the losses will mount as the lethargic Tanzanians do nothing fast. Plus the profits accruing to TZ as a depot for BU will reduce as the shit hits the fan in BU.

Bottomline [entitled to revisions]: KK will do very well profit-wise but it should take a write-down in assets in all the subsidiaries. There will be some asset revaluations especially in Kenya from the sale of some properties.

The dividend will be muted since Ohana wants to pay down debt & build a 1.5bn building at the corner of Haile Selassie and Uhuru Highway.

BUY as of 4 Jan 2016.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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mibbz
#2 Posted : Monday, January 04, 2016 10:55:59 AM
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Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
Already at 9.60, seems investors are bullish on KK!
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dunkang
#3 Posted : Monday, January 04, 2016 12:13:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
mibbz wrote:
Already at 9.60, seems investors are bullish on KK!

Really? 8.90/- it is.
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

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Aguytrying
#4 Posted : Monday, January 04, 2016 1:19:03 PM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
dunkang wrote:
mibbz wrote:
Already at 9.60, seems investors are bullish on KK!

Really? 8.90/- it is.


This was expected 9.60 was kustua tu
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mibbz
#5 Posted : Monday, January 04, 2016 1:40:38 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
Aguytrying wrote:
dunkang wrote:
mibbz wrote:
Already at 9.60, seems investors are bullish on KK!

Really? 8.90/- it is.


This was expected 9.60 was kustua tu



Actually KK opened the day at 9.6 with 9.4 as a high of the day.It's currently at 8.85.
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Boris Boyka
#6 Posted : Monday, January 04, 2016 5:39:17 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
mibbz wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
dunkang wrote:
mibbz wrote:
Already at 9.60, seems investors are bullish on KK!

Really? 8.90/- it is.


This was expected 9.60 was kustua tu



Actually KK opened the day at 9.6 with 9.4 as a high of the day.It's currently at 8.85.

VWAP?
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Pesa Nane
#7 Posted : Monday, January 04, 2016 10:42:30 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
Boris Boyka wrote:
mibbz wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
dunkang wrote:
mibbz wrote:
Already at 9.60, seems investors are bullish on KK!

Really? 8.90/- it is.


This was expected 9.60 was kustua tu



Actually KK opened the day at 9.6 with 9.4 as a high of the day.It's currently at 8.85.

VWAP?

Ksh. 8.85
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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VituVingiSana
#8 Posted : Monday, January 04, 2016 11:08:56 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Lower oil prices will help Kenya and KK. http://www.businessdaily...6/-/sjembm/-/index.html

Kenya(ns) will spend less on fuel (per liter) which allows for additional expenditure on other goods which boosts volumes sold. Furthermore, cheaper fuel means more folks will travel more often.

For KK, there is a fixed mark-up allowed per liter and higher volumes translates to higher Gross Margins as the infrastructure/assets can be 'sweated' for maximum marginal gains.

Of course, there's always a chance of things going wrong. If the Saudis & Iranians start shooting at each other. Or the KES dives to 120/USD. Or interest rates end up at 30%. Or there's pre-election violence.

BUT ceteris paribus - Let The Good Times Roll
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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whiteowl
#9 Posted : Tuesday, January 05, 2016 12:31:47 AM
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Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
And there is that story of Iran pumping oil at $1. If it's remotely true, oil will stay sub $40 for a long time.
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VituVingiSana
#10 Posted : Tuesday, January 05, 2016 12:35:32 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
whiteowl wrote:
And there is that story of Iran pumping oil at $1. If it's remotely true, oil will stay sub $40 for a long time.
I doubt that is true coz it costs Iran more than $1/bbl to produce the oil. Iran might be supplying a few favored customers with $1 oil as a quid pro quo rather than a market transaction.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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mlennyma
#11 Posted : Tuesday, January 05, 2016 9:54:31 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
Kks share behaviour tells me small positive news will trigger a serious rally the first time in many years to around 12bob before cooling abit
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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dunkang
#12 Posted : Tuesday, January 05, 2016 12:34:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
VituVingiSana wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
And there is that story of Iran pumping oil at $1. If it's remotely true, oil will stay sub $40 for a long time.
I doubt that is true coz it costs Iran more than $1/bbl to produce the oil. Iran might be supplying a few favored customers with $1 oil as a quid pro quo rather than a market transaction.

Most of wells in the iranian central region are reportedly producing at between US$1 - US$1.5.

Quote:
Directing Manager of Iran's Central Oil Fields Company (ICOFC) Salbali Karimi said Iran enjoys one of the lowest levels of oil production costs in the world adding “the least expensive crude oil in terms of low cost of production is currently being produced in the central areas of the country.
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

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VituVingiSana
#13 Posted : Tuesday, January 05, 2016 3:40:43 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
dunkang wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
And there is that story of Iran pumping oil at $1. If it's remotely true, oil will stay sub $40 for a long time.
I doubt that is true coz it costs Iran more than $1/bbl to produce the oil. Iran might be supplying a few favored customers with $1 oil as a quid pro quo rather than a market transaction.

Most of wells in the iranian central region are reportedly producing at between US$1 - US$1.5.

Quote:
Directing Manager of Iran's Central Oil Fields Company (ICOFC) Salbali Karimi said Iran enjoys one of the lowest levels of oil production costs in the world adding “the least expensive crude oil in terms of low cost of production is currently being produced in the central areas of the country.

LOL, if they want to sell at or below production cost... I think I know who should buy out KQ! All this is just sabre-rattling because Iran is less dependent on oil than Saudi Arabia. The reality is that no-one can afford to sell their oil at $1/bbl BUT I would be a very happy driver if they did. Plus lower oil prices help moderate inflation in Kenya and will pad KK's pockets!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Aguytrying
#14 Posted : Tuesday, January 05, 2016 4:26:16 PM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mlennyma wrote:
Kks share behaviour tells me small positive news will trigger a serious rally the first time in many years to around 12bob before cooling abit


We normally spot these movements at the same time, I'll watch to see what you've seen
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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whiteowl
#15 Posted : Tuesday, January 05, 2016 9:35:00 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
VituVingiSana wrote:
dunkang wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
And there is that story of Iran pumping oil at $1. If it's remotely true, oil will stay sub $40 for a long time.
I doubt that is true coz it costs Iran more than $1/bbl to produce the oil. Iran might be supplying a few favored customers with $1 oil as a quid pro quo rather than a market transaction.

Most of wells in the iranian central region are reportedly producing at between US$1 - US$1.5.

Quote:
Directing Manager of Iran's Central Oil Fields Company (ICOFC) Salbali Karimi said Iran enjoys one of the lowest levels of oil production costs in the world adding “the least expensive crude oil in terms of low cost of production is currently being produced in the central areas of the country.

LOL, if they want to sell at or below production cost... I think I know who should buy out KQ! All this is just sabre-rattling because Iran is less dependent on oil than Saudi Arabia. The reality is that no-one can afford to sell their oil at $1/bbl BUT I would be a very happy driver if they did. Plus lower oil prices help moderate inflation in Kenya and will pad KK's pockets!


They aren't planning to sell below production cost.If it's $1 as they claim then selling it at $10 would be very profitable. At $20 they'll be making 2000% profit. If it plays out that way,Saudis better be ready for another round of painful budget cuts.
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VituVingiSana
#16 Posted : Tuesday, January 05, 2016 10:19:54 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
whiteowl wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
dunkang wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
And there is that story of Iran pumping oil at $1. If it's remotely true, oil will stay sub $40 for a long time.
I doubt that is true coz it costs Iran more than $1/bbl to produce the oil. Iran might be supplying a few favored customers with $1 oil as a quid pro quo rather than a market transaction.

Most of wells in the iranian central region are reportedly producing at between US$1 - US$1.5.

Quote:
Directing Manager of Iran's Central Oil Fields Company (ICOFC) Salbali Karimi said Iran enjoys one of the lowest levels of oil production costs in the world adding “the least expensive crude oil in terms of low cost of production is currently being produced in the central areas of the country.

LOL, if they want to sell at or below production cost... I think I know who should buy out KQ! All this is just sabre-rattling because Iran is less dependent on oil than Saudi Arabia. The reality is that no-one can afford to sell their oil at $1/bbl BUT I would be a very happy driver if they did. Plus lower oil prices help moderate inflation in Kenya and will pad KK's pockets!


They aren't planning to sell below production cost.If it's $1 as they claim then selling it at $10 would be very profitable. At $20 they'll be making 2000% profit. If it plays out that way,Saudis better be ready for another round of painful budget cuts.

I want them to get into a 'production/price war' Applause Applause Applause
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Realtreaty
#17 Posted : Wednesday, January 06, 2016 1:09:48 AM
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Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,297
killing me softly with this thing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!d'oh!
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mibbz
#18 Posted : Wednesday, January 06, 2016 11:28:32 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
VituVingiSana wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
dunkang wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
And there is that story of Iran pumping oil at $1. If it's remotely true, oil will stay sub $40 for a long time.
I doubt that is true coz it costs Iran more than $1/bbl to produce the oil. Iran might be supplying a few favored customers with $1 oil as a quid pro quo rather than a market transaction.

Most of wells in the iranian central region are reportedly producing at between US$1 - US$1.5.

Quote:
Directing Manager of Iran's Central Oil Fields Company (ICOFC) Salbali Karimi said Iran enjoys one of the lowest levels of oil production costs in the world adding “the least expensive crude oil in terms of low cost of production is currently being produced in the central areas of the country.

LOL, if they want to sell at or below production cost... I think I know who should buy out KQ! All this is just sabre-rattling because Iran is less dependent on oil than Saudi Arabia. The reality is that no-one can afford to sell their oil at $1/bbl BUT I would be a very happy driver if they did. Plus lower oil prices help moderate inflation in Kenya and will pad KK's pockets!


They aren't planning to sell below production cost.If it's $1 as they claim then selling it at $10 would be very profitable. At $20 they'll be making 2000% profit. If it plays out that way,Saudis better be ready for another round of painful budget cuts.

I want them to get into a 'production/price war' Applause Applause Applause



If they start price wars Iran shall win. I once read Saudi production costs are around $2/Barrel. With Iran lower than this,they shall definitely fight it out. Plus USA is soon starting oil exports.

All in all the price might hold for the next 4 years ans that is good news for KK investors.

Apologies for the lack of referencing of my sources.mostly international news outlets (CNN/Aljaazeera/economist)
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VituVingiSana
#19 Posted : Wednesday, January 06, 2016 5:28:36 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Let them fight a 'production/price' war, not a real war with weapons, which benefits us as Kenyans. And KK.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Magnate
#20 Posted : Wednesday, January 06, 2016 5:33:20 PM
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Joined: 11/1/2013
Posts: 257
Closing at 9.15 today,those who listened and bought at 8.0 a few weeks ago are 10%+ up.
No diagnosis,no pragnosis,no pragnosis no profit......Jesse livermore
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