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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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@hisah. This article expounds further on the monetary, fin. engineering works abroad I was referring to earlier. Yes, what about fiscus?
Banks Scramble To Collateralize Loans To Record Levels Quote:One of the biggest quandaries of this cycle for the US economy has been the amount and growth of commercial bank loans. Virtually non-existent for the first three years of the centrally-planned new normal, something changed in 2012 at which point US bank loans, led by Commercial and Industrial or C&I lending growing at a double-digit pop, started to rise at an impressive pace, asking many to wonder: maybe the biggest driver for a sustainable economic recovery is in fact present, because where there is loan demand, there is velocity of money.
A few years later, as the loan growth persisted with virtually no flow through to GDP growth, we - and others - wondered: we know there is a "source of funds", but what about the "use of funds" - how can banks be creating tens of billions in loans if virtually nothing was ending up in the broader economy? http://www.zerohedge.com...ble-collateralize-loans
Also, been trying to figure the oil bottom. ZH reports maxing of storage capacity. OK. We have seemingly unrelenting producers. OK. Selling to consumers who can only consume so much. OK. Now, considering markets are forward looking; as I see production cuts 1st, drawing down the glut and magical demand to absorb it rapidly. What time horizon can you give it? So much for peak oil? 
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:@hisah. This article expounds further on the monetary, fin. engineering works abroad I was referring to earlier. Yes, what about fiscus?
Banks Scramble To Collateralize Loans To Record Levels Quote:One of the biggest quandaries of this cycle for the US economy has been the amount and growth of commercial bank loans. Virtually non-existent for the first three years of the centrally-planned new normal, something changed in 2012 at which point US bank loans, led by Commercial and Industrial or C&I lending growing at a double-digit pop, started to rise at an impressive pace, asking many to wonder: maybe the biggest driver for a sustainable economic recovery is in fact present, because where there is loan demand, there is velocity of money.
A few years later, as the loan growth persisted with virtually no flow through to GDP growth, we - and others - wondered: we know there is a "source of funds", but what about the "use of funds" - how can banks be creating tens of billions in loans if virtually nothing was ending up in the broader economy? http://www.zerohedge.com...ble-collateralize-loans
Also, been trying to figure the oil bottom. ZH reports maxing of storage capacity. OK. We have seemingly unrelenting producers. OK. Selling to consumers who can only consume so much. OK. Now, considering markets are forward looking; as I see production cuts 1st, drawing down the glut and magical demand to absorb it rapidly. What time horizon can you give it? So much for peak oil? Fiscus was forgotten during GFC (which never ended since global trade has never recovered!). It's all about financial engineering now until the system is reset! The US has come on top as the best in this engineering magic show and is attracting the largest crowd (capital) for now. Quite ironic that capital is flowing there with a candidate like Trump for the top seat! This strong USD period will confuse the crowd. But it also ensures the looming reset vs the global debt mountain will be epic!
Strong $ = deflation = global trade slump = commodities crash.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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hisah wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:@hisah. This article expounds further on the monetary, fin. engineering works abroad I was referring to earlier. Yes, what about fiscus?
Banks Scramble To Collateralize Loans To Record Levels Quote:One of the biggest quandaries of this cycle for the US economy has been the amount and growth of commercial bank loans. Virtually non-existent for the first three years of the centrally-planned new normal, something changed in 2012 at which point US bank loans, led by Commercial and Industrial or C&I lending growing at a double-digit pop, started to rise at an impressive pace, asking many to wonder: maybe the biggest driver for a sustainable economic recovery is in fact present, because where there is loan demand, there is velocity of money.
A few years later, as the loan growth persisted with virtually no flow through to GDP growth, we - and others - wondered: we know there is a "source of funds", but what about the "use of funds" - how can banks be creating tens of billions in loans if virtually nothing was ending up in the broader economy? http://www.zerohedge.com...ble-collateralize-loans
Also, been trying to figure the oil bottom. ZH reports maxing of storage capacity. OK. We have seemingly unrelenting producers. OK. Selling to consumers who can only consume so much. OK. Now, considering markets are forward looking; as I see production cuts 1st, drawing down the glut and magical demand to absorb it rapidly. What time horizon can you give it? So much for peak oil? Fiscus was forgotten during GFC (which never ended since global trade has never recovered!). It's all about financial engineering now until the system is reset! The US has come on top as the best in this engineering magic show and is attracting the largest crowd (capital) for now. Quite ironic that capital is flowing there with a candidate like Trump for the top seat! This strong USD period will confuse the crowd. But it also ensures the looming reset vs the global debt mountain will be epic!
Strong $ = deflation = global trade slump = commodities crash.
Trump. Trump is on energizer packs and the polls keep growing in his favor. The US demographic, at least Rep. for now, seem to like what he is saying! I think his greatest selling point is that he has always epitomized enterprise and that cuts across the electorate. GFC was all inclusive and I think the electorate is in no mood for another round of local (and by extension global) round of socio-economic right sizing. The Dems have been quiet so far. I don't see their chances. The best thing Obeezy has done is fix US foreign policy to a great extent. Sino in the mix with their twist of win-win economics, trick is in acceptance of the RMB as a global ccy. I bet on Sino create a new impetus for multilateral Real development. The EU myopism must come to and end and put RUS fully back in the game as a stabilizer link for a socio-economically soft Eurasia. I don't see the US sharing in the migrant mess there. The current poster boy of democracy, India, has been a roll. Unfettered clobbering deals all over. In Africa we need more leadership that is alive to the youth demographic and put it to constructive use. The rest of the world is headed into retirement! Sino has moved with the 2 child policy and that's a 15-18 year lag, tough luck. Rotate manufacturing to Africa, be the global KYM-spanner boy, and that's one great global demand pull source. The infrastructure deficits in Africa makes that a double. Increased intra-Africa trade makes that a triple.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:hisah wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:@hisah. This article expounds further on the monetary, fin. engineering works abroad I was referring to earlier. Yes, what about fiscus?
Banks Scramble To Collateralize Loans To Record Levels Quote:One of the biggest quandaries of this cycle for the US economy has been the amount and growth of commercial bank loans. Virtually non-existent for the first three years of the centrally-planned new normal, something changed in 2012 at which point US bank loans, led by Commercial and Industrial or C&I lending growing at a double-digit pop, started to rise at an impressive pace, asking many to wonder: maybe the biggest driver for a sustainable economic recovery is in fact present, because where there is loan demand, there is velocity of money.
A few years later, as the loan growth persisted with virtually no flow through to GDP growth, we - and others - wondered: we know there is a "source of funds", but what about the "use of funds" - how can banks be creating tens of billions in loans if virtually nothing was ending up in the broader economy? http://www.zerohedge.com...ble-collateralize-loans
Also, been trying to figure the oil bottom. ZH reports maxing of storage capacity. OK. We have seemingly unrelenting producers. OK. Selling to consumers who can only consume so much. OK. Now, considering markets are forward looking; as I see production cuts 1st, drawing down the glut and magical demand to absorb it rapidly. What time horizon can you give it? So much for peak oil? Fiscus was forgotten during GFC (which never ended since global trade has never recovered!). It's all about financial engineering now until the system is reset! The US has come on top as the best in this engineering magic show and is attracting the largest crowd (capital) for now. Quite ironic that capital is flowing there with a candidate like Trump for the top seat! This strong USD period will confuse the crowd. But it also ensures the looming reset vs the global debt mountain will be epic!
Strong $ = deflation = global trade slump = commodities crash.
Trump. Trump is on energizer packs and the polls keep growing in his favor. The US demographic, at least Rep. for now, seem to like what he is saying! I think his greatest selling point is that he has always epitomized enterprise and that cuts across the electorate. GFC was all inclusive and I think the electorate is in no mood for another round of local (and by extension global) round of socio-economic right sizing. The Dems have been quiet so far. I don't see their chances. The best thing Obeezy has done is fix US foreign policy to a great extent. Sino in the mix with their twist of win-win economics, trick is in acceptance of the RMB as a global ccy. I bet on Sino create a new impetus for multilateral Real development. The EU myopism must come to and end and put RUS fully back in the game as a stabilizer link for a socio-economically soft Eurasia. I don't see the US sharing in the migrant mess there. The current poster boy of democracy, India, has been a roll. Unfettered clobbering deals all over. In Africa we need more leadership that is alive to the youth demographic and put it to constructive use. The rest of the world is headed into retirement! Sino has moved with the 2 child policy and that's a 15-18 year lag, tough luck. Rotate manufacturing to Africa, be the global KYM-spanner boy, and that's one great global demand pull source. The infrastructure deficits in Africa makes that a double. Increased intra-Africa trade makes that a triple. The amount of financial engineering that has taken place since the GFC is mind bending. When the unwinding fully kicks in, investor/corporate/sovereign capital will be vaporised in a flash. The so called too big to fail banks have now become too big to bail. If anyone of them tanks and a sovereign is persuaded to attempt a bail out, it will be a replay of Ireland's tango with Anglo-Irish bank back in the GFC...only this time with more dire consequences. Of all the BRICS countries, India is holding up pretty well... nay thriving while the rest including China are grappling with the threat of or actual economic downturn. As for oil, I believe that the prices are yet to plunge and set up a bottom. Prices must plummet further to trigger either bankruptcies/folding of some unsustainable shale oil producers or some geo-political fanned warfare in the minefields. Coz at this point I don't see the Saudis abandoning their campaign to squeeze both the frackers plus Russia...irrespective of their huge government deficits and SWF haemorrhage. The dollar is going to have its last hoorah but at a very steep premium to both the US and the rest of the world. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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http://www.reuters.com/a...e-idUSKBN0UD0JB20151230
The IMF joins the anti fed hike campaign warning of serious repercussions. A bit late to raise the red flag but you can't expect much from these bureaucrats. These policy errors amongst other factors - especially the fed hike(s) - will be the bane of financial markets in 2016. The politicos will not accept to share blame for the mess and will likely be baying for the Fed's blood. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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The Yuan is already warning to get ready for a strong dollar. Chingland will struggle keeping capital in China. This will test to the limit the chingland miracle economy! Capital controls will get ugly there, which will worsen the capital flight! Commodities are indeed on course for a big crash! Get ready! Image courtesy of XE.com - USD-CNY 10yr chart.  Target is GFC peg fix at 6.83. Break above will mean the USD will be racing back to the 2006 level around 8.0. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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hisah wrote:The Yuan is already warning to get ready for a strong dollar. Chingland will struggle keeping capital in China. This will test to the limit the chingland miracle economy! Capital controls will get ugly there, which will worsen the capital flight! Commodities are indeed on course for a big crash! Get ready! Image courtesy of XE.com - USD-CNY 10yr chart. Target is GFC peg fix at 6.83. Break above will mean the USD will be racing back to the 2006 level around 8.0. Look at the Russian Ruble against the Emerging Markets. Zuma has no idea what hit him "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,301 Location: kenya
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murchr wrote:hisah wrote:The Yuan is already warning to get ready for a strong dollar. Chingland will struggle keeping capital in China. This will test to the limit the chingland miracle economy! Capital controls will get ugly there, which will worsen the capital flight! Commodities are indeed on course for a big crash! Get ready! Image courtesy of XE.com - USD-CNY 10yr chart. Target is GFC peg fix at 6.83. Break above will mean the USD will be racing back to the 2006 level around 8.0. Look at the Russian Ruble against the Emerging Markets. Zuma has no idea what hit him Kulala na Maclande ndio Anajua Kisha he rushes to the shower to take shower to clean himself from vidudu. He will be in shower showering when the hammer will come down
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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hisah wrote:The Yuan is already warning to get ready for a strong dollar. Chingland will struggle keeping capital in China. This will test to the limit the chingland miracle economy! Capital controls will get ugly there, which will worsen the capital flight! Commodities are indeed on course for a big crash! Get ready! Image courtesy of XE.com - USD-CNY 10yr chart. Target is GFC peg fix at 6.83. Break above will mean the USD will be racing back to the 2006 level around 8.0. Good one @lochaz and @hisah how about finding the inflection of USD deficit draw down supply while RMB demand escalates to reflect SDR quotas in run up to Oct. 2016. The easier to monitor is PBOC devaluations in that time. Could be a good punt?
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