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Kenya Airways...why ignore..
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VituVingiSana
#3061 Posted : Friday, December 25, 2015 2:00:05 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,362
Location: Nairobi
[quote=Cde Monomotapa]au revoir..


flydubai East Africa Service Changes from late-Jan 2016 http://airlineroute.net/2015/12/25/fz-jan16/

How often does RwandAir fly from Kigali to Dubai? Could they have been the reason for FlyDubai cutting back?

Hello..


Kenya Airways Expands AIRFRANCE Codeshare from mid-Dec 2015 http://airlineroute.net/...5/kqaf-codeshare-dec15/[/quote]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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obiero
#3062 Posted : Saturday, December 26, 2015 9:20:38 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,262
Location: nairobi
sparkly wrote:
Spikes wrote:
@obiero remember the company is operating with negative equity which translates to overpriced KQ at NSE bourse. If next loss announcement broadens further, it'll stir status quo of kes 4.5 by sending jitters amongst Wanjiko who would impulsively let it go on a free fall. Recall it is you to obey the law of gravity; however, if the law of gravity obeys you it is news. The price resistant at kes 4.5 is normal because some guys bought the share expensively and are expecting a reverse in performance which is not forth coming in the next 18 months. Finally the kes 4.5 floor will be broken, as some investors and a handful of speculators will grow impatient on government much awaited bailout, to unveil what is inside ground level.


@Spikes let me give you a basic schooling on how to value asssets.

Value of asset:ADD all foreseeable future incomes TO the expected terminal value of the asset AND discount all to the present value.

The market is saying that if you buy KQ today and hold till Jesus comes back, you will have made KShs 4.50 (give or take a few cents) in today's cash equivalent.

What you are telling us is that by the time Christ come back, you can only make KShs 2.

Thanks @sparkly some schooling was needed right there.. :)
As per post #1 adopted from ProverB, operating margin for KQ:
2015 projected -3.7%
2014 -14.8%
2013 -2.6%
2010 2.6%
2009 5.6%
2008 11.6%
2007 13.1%
COOP, IMH, KQ, MTNU
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  | | Edit by user: Saturday, December 26, 2015 12:36 PM | Reason: Not specified
VituVingiSana
#3063 Posted : Saturday, December 26, 2015 12:18:42 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,362
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Spikes wrote:
@obiero remember the company is operating with negative equity which translates to overpriced KQ at NSE bourse. If next loss announcement broadens further, it'll stir status quo of kes 4.5 by sending jitters amongst Wanjiko who would impulsively let it go on a free fall. Recall it is you to obey the law of gravity; however, if the law of gravity obeys you it is news. The price resistant at kes 4.5 is normal because some guys bought the share expensively and are expecting a reverse in performance which is not forth coming in the next 18 months. Finally the kes 4.5 floor will be broken, as some investors and a handful of speculators will grow impatient on government much awaited bailout, to unveil what is inside ground level.


@Spikes let me give you a basic schooling on how to value asssets.

Value of asset:ADD all foreseeable future incomes TO the expected terminal value of the asset AND discount all to the present value.

The market is saying that if you buy KQ today and hold till Jesus comes back, you will have made KShs 4.50 (give or take a few cents) in today's cash equivalent.

What you are telling us is that by the time Christ come back, you can only make KShs 2.

Thanks @sparkly some schooling was needed right there.. :)


Well, I think @Spikes is optimistic. I value KQ shares in its current form [ceteris paribus] at zero.
1) There is no future income/profit expected for 18 months even by the ever optimistic @Obiero. It will take many years after that for profits to build up to decent levels.
2) The expected terminal value [based on today's NAV] is negative for many years. If anything, the hole gets deeper every month. [And there's the real possibility of 'dilution' by a sale of shares to a strategic partner. See ARM].
3) The current discount rate is 15% [I am using the 9-year IFB as my benchmark].

Let @Obiero provide the data as required and @Sparkly can do the maths for our benefit to find NPV.

Happy Holidays!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#3064 Posted : Sunday, December 27, 2015 3:34:56 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,362
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
[quote=Cde Monomotapa]au revoir..


flydubai East Africa Service Changes from late-Jan 2016 http://airlineroute.net/2015/12/25/fz-jan16/

How often does RwandAir fly from Kigali to Dubai? Could they have been the reason for FlyDubai cutting back?

Hello..


Kenya Airways Expands AIRFRANCE Codeshare from mid-Dec 2015 http://airlineroute.net/...5/kqaf-codeshare-dec15/[/quote]


http://www.theeastafrica...6/-/4svnc9/-/index.html

Fastjet to fly NBO-DSM ($175 Return) and NBO-JRO with future service NBO-ZNZ and MBA-DSM ... KQ charges $350 Return. Who would you fly?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  | | Edit by user: Sunday, December 27, 2015 3:45 AM | Reason: Not specified
Cde Monomotapa
#3065 Posted : Sunday, December 27, 2015 9:08:31 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
VituVingiSana wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
[quote=Cde Monomotapa]au revoir..


flydubai East Africa Service Changes from late-Jan 2016 http://airlineroute.net/2015/12/25/fz-jan16/

How often does RwandAir fly from Kigali to Dubai? Could they have been the reason for FlyDubai cutting back?

Hello..


Kenya Airways Expands AIRFRANCE Codeshare from mid-Dec 2015 http://airlineroute.net/...5/kqaf-codeshare-dec15/[/quote]


http://www.theeastafrica...6/-/4svnc9/-/index.html

Fastjet to fly NBO-DSM ($175 Return) and NBO-JRO with future service NBO-ZNZ and MBA-DSM ... KQ charges $350 Return. Who would you fly?


Still early days. Let them come. Jambojet x-sells KQ on similar routes and a good reason is capacity?

A trader with cargo will be ill advised to fly a LCC. Think Eastliegh.

FJ can also codeshare with JJ on local and KQ on international.
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VituVingiSana
#3066 Posted : Sunday, December 27, 2015 9:56:00 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,362
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
[quote=Cde Monomotapa]au revoir..


flydubai East Africa Service Changes from late-Jan 2016 http://airlineroute.net/2015/12/25/fz-jan16/

How often does RwandAir fly from Kigali to Dubai? Could they have been the reason for FlyDubai cutting back?

Hello..


Kenya Airways Expands AIRFRANCE Codeshare from mid-Dec 2015 http://airlineroute.net/...5/kqaf-codeshare-dec15/[/quote]


http://www.theeastafrica...6/-/4svnc9/-/index.html

Fastjet to fly NBO-DSM ($175 Return) and NBO-JRO with future service NBO-ZNZ and MBA-DSM ... KQ charges $350 Return. Who would you fly?


Still early days. Let them come. Jambojet x-sells KQ on similar routes
Lies, lies, bitter lies. On which 'similar' routes does JJ x-sell KQ?
and a good reason is capacity?

A trader with cargo will be ill advised to fly a LCC. Think Eastliegh.
What planes does KQ fly from NBO to JRO/DSM? Traders/importers in DSM are better off using direct flights into DSM from Dubai which is a major entrepot that serves China, India, etc.

FJ can also codeshare with JJ on local and KQ on international.
Of course FJ can codeshare with JJ & KQ. Though for now FJ will take marketshare from KQ on the KE-TZ routes.
Over time, I think FJ will also take marketshare of other routes i.e. NBO-DSM-Southern Africa (Lusaka, Harare, Lilongwe & the biggie Joburg) by providing lower fares.


For those looking at flying where FastJet flies...
http://www.fastjet.com/t...r-trip/fees-and-charges
http://www.fastjet.com/ke/en/ [Kenya Website]
http://www.fastjet.com/tz/en/ [TZ Website]
To fly beyond DSM, you may need to book a separate ticket due to Kenya CAA's restrictions.

Another airline that is cheaper [but 1 stop] than KQ for many intra-Africa flights is RwandaAir. And the flight stewardesses on RwandaAir [& ET)... Applause Applause Applause Drool Drool Drool #TeamMafisi
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  | | Edit by user: Sunday, December 27, 2015 10:00 AM | Reason: Not specified
Cde Monomotapa
#3067 Posted : Sunday, December 27, 2015 10:04:42 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
smile 4%
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obiero
#3068 Posted : Tuesday, December 29, 2015 12:03:40 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,262
Location: nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
smile 4%

Just received 300k from a deal gone good. Im terribly confused as to my next move. Hata usingizi imepotea
COOP, IMH, KQ, MTNU
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Spikes
#3069 Posted : Tuesday, December 29, 2015 7:07:53 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
Congrats for 300k deal but do not attempt to dive into KQ. You will aid somebody pullout leaving you there to be burnt beyond recognition. Lets do a virtual Math: you enter@5bob you obtain 60,000 units then you come to Wazua gloating beating the chest 'I have punched it' only to be screwed @2bob proceeds of 120k . Shafting continues!
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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sparkly
#3070 Posted : Tuesday, December 29, 2015 7:31:55 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
obiero wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
smile 4%

Just received 300k from a deal gone good. Im terribly confused as to my next move. Hata usingizi imepotea


Refer to the "2 stocks for life" thread.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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