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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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I don't think the impact will be significant to frontier markets. You will be surprised next year emerging markets' performance outstriping analysts who have warned of local currency meltdown and financial earthquake in capital markets. Fed rate hike of 25 basis points is not strong enough to give US dollar muscles to trounce other currencies. Capital outflow will remain minimal however the real challenge is debt management by third world countries because of large mounts in their books. As for debt I am left worrisome of the spiral effect on the balance of account expected to skyrocket its deficit. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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5 US Banks Each Have More Than 40 Trillion Dollars Exposure to DerivativesConventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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Though not all exposure is 'negative' and a lot of it may cancel out. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/3/2014 Posts: 245
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Eh mnandii, SPT , Metasploit. how are the charts looking ? In the world of securities, courage and patience become the supreme virtues after adequate knowledge and a tested judgment are at hand.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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Some good number of greens today "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/27/2007 Posts: 3,604
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Articles I am reading this afternoon 1. http://www.standardmedia...rformance-in-four-years
2. http://www.standardmedia...-wipes-out-sh250-billionAfrican parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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[quote=Sober]Articles I am reading this afternoon 1. http://www.standardmedia...rformance-in-four-years
2. http://www.standardmedia...wipes-out-sh250-billion[/quote] paper losses, so for those who have stayed put when will the reverse happen?jimnah mbaru tweets around this time,the first 5 gainers today did the allowed daily maximum according to mystocks "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mlennyma wrote:paper losses, so for those who have stayed put when will the reverse happen?jimnah mbaru tweets around this time, the first 5 gainers today did the allowed daily maximum according to mystocks Those gains are on vapour volume.
I expect the market to bounce in Q1, but not rally. In Q2 after mpesa bank announces their FY results the market will likely tank again because of the expected fiscal indiscipline as KE heads for elections. This will not offer a sustainable platform for a mid term rally this year. Also note that the Fed is likely going to hike the rates again this year (may be twice)!! A muscular USD and gok fiscal indiscipline will not favour any bullish outcome on the back of a limping economy and actualized profit warnings. If I were a large fund in KE I'd be looking at the money market for the rates are still going to be sky high in 2016.
Actualized profit warnings + strong USD + gok fiscal indiscipline (elections) + high interest rates = guaranteed recession!
Equities never sustain bullish rallies in deflationary grounds. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:mlennyma wrote:paper losses, so for those who have stayed put when will the reverse happen?jimnah mbaru tweets around this time, the first 5 gainers today did the allowed daily maximum according to mystocks Those gains are on vapour volume.
I expect the market to bounce in Q1, but not rally. In Q2 after mpesa bank announces their FY results the market will likely tank again because of the expected fiscal indiscipline as KE heads for elections. This will not offer a sustainable platform for a mid term rally this year. Also note that the Fed is likely going to hike the rates again this year (may be twice)!! A muscular USD and gok fiscal indiscipline will not favour any bullish outcome on the back of a limping economy and actualized profit warnings. If I were a large fund in KE I'd be looking at the money market for the rates are still going to be sky high in 2016.
Actualized profit warnings + strong USD + gok fiscal indiscipline (elections) + high interest rates = guaranteed recession!
Equities never sustain bullish rallies in deflationary grounds. @Hisah - I am skeptical if Kenya will see a deflation despite lower commodity [steel, copper, oil] prices due to profligate behavior by GoK. The strong USD will push up the import bill for goods other than commodities which creates push inflation. Equities, in general terms, will suffer which is why I am very selective in what I buy. Of course, I could buy wrong as well. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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hisah wrote:mlennyma wrote:paper losses, so for those who have stayed put when will the reverse happen?jimnah mbaru tweets around this time, the first 5 gainers today did the allowed daily maximum according to mystocks Those gains are on vapour volume.
I expect the market to bounce in Q1, but not rally. In Q2 after mpesa bank announces their FY results the market will likely tank again because of the expected fiscal indiscipline as KE heads for elections. This will not offer a sustainable platform for a mid term rally this year. Also note that the Fed is likely going to hike the rates again this year (may be twice)!! A muscular USD and gok fiscal indiscipline will not favour any bullish outcome on the back of a limping economy and actualized profit warnings. If I were a large fund in KE I'd be looking at the money market for the rates are still going to be sky high in 2016.
Actualized profit warnings + strong USD + gok fiscal indiscipline (elections) + high interest rates = guaranteed recession!
Equities never sustain bullish rallies in deflationary grounds. on the vapour volume I agree infact the top gainers of today are highly likely tomorrow's top losers,all other factors will not necessarily swing the market the way we think.it's guess work based on facts "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Today The NSE should be in the red. Im seeing so much red on the heavy weights The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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Aguytrying wrote:Today The NSE should be in the red. Im seeing so much red on the heavy weights That one should not worry you we are concerned about next week performance. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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VituVingiSana wrote:hisah wrote:mlennyma wrote:paper losses, so for those who have stayed put when will the reverse happen?jimnah mbaru tweets around this time, the first 5 gainers today did the allowed daily maximum according to mystocks Those gains are on vapour volume.
I expect the market to bounce in Q1, but not rally. In Q2 after mpesa bank announces their FY results the market will likely tank again because of the expected fiscal indiscipline as KE heads for elections. This will not offer a sustainable platform for a mid term rally this year. Also note that the Fed is likely going to hike the rates again this year (may be twice)!! A muscular USD and gok fiscal indiscipline will not favour any bullish outcome on the back of a limping economy and actualized profit warnings. If I were a large fund in KE I'd be looking at the money market for the rates are still going to be sky high in 2016.
Actualized profit warnings + strong USD + gok fiscal indiscipline (elections) + high interest rates = guaranteed recession!
Equities never sustain bullish rallies in deflationary grounds. @Hisah - I am skeptical if Kenya will see a deflation despite lower commodity [steel, copper, oil] prices due to profligate behavior by GoK. The strong USD will push up the import bill for goods other than commodities which creates push inflation. Equities, in general terms, will suffer which is why I am very selective in what I buy. Of course, I could buy wrong as well. Indeed this is a time to be very selective in what to buy. Have to be on the hunt for value.
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/1/2013 Posts: 257
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snipermnoma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:hisah wrote:mlennyma wrote:paper losses, so for those who have stayed put when will the reverse happen?jimnah mbaru tweets around this time, the first 5 gainers today did the allowed daily maximum according to mystocks Those gains are on vapour volume.
I expect the market to bounce in Q1, but not rally. In Q2 after mpesa bank announces their FY results the market will likely tank again because of the expected fiscal indiscipline as KE heads for elections. This will not offer a sustainable platform for a mid term rally this year. Also note that the Fed is likely going to hike the rates again this year (may be twice)!! A muscular USD and gok fiscal indiscipline will not favour any bullish outcome on the back of a limping economy and actualized profit warnings. If I were a large fund in KE I'd be looking at the money market for the rates are still going to be sky high in 2016.
Actualized profit warnings + strong USD + gok fiscal indiscipline (elections) + high interest rates = guaranteed recession!
Equities never sustain bullish rallies in deflationary grounds. @Hisah - I am skeptical if Kenya will see a deflation despite lower commodity [steel, copper, oil] prices due to profligate behavior by GoK. The strong USD will push up the import bill for goods other than commodities which creates push inflation. Equities, in general terms, will suffer which is why I am very selective in what I buy. Of course, I could buy wrong as well. Indeed this is a time to be very selective in what to buy. Have to be on the hunt for value. Cytonns believes there are some few pockets of value in this market though their forecast for 2016 is neutral. http://www.cytonn.com/do..._and_Market_Outlook.pdf
No diagnosis,no pragnosis,no pragnosis no profit......Jesse livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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2016 critical signal reminder. This year's currency theme is the yuan. Should the USDCNY rate zoom past 6.83 (GFC peg level) serious damage will ensue across board as the USD strength squeeze everyone! How will KE deal with this nasty curve ball when gok has already mismanaged its cash position!?! If gok forces money to be printed (elections "goodies" - fiscal indiscipline etc) KES will be hammered very badly. My view is NSE20 will still test 3300 or overshoot to 3000 before we get money rushing into the market again. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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hisah wrote:2016 critical signal reminder.
This year's currency theme is the yuan. Should the USDCNY rate zoom past 6.83 (GFC peg level) serious damage will ensue across board as the USD strength squeeze everyone!
How will KE deal with this nasty curve ball when gok has already mismanaged its cash position!?! If gok forces money to be printed (elections "goodies" - fiscal indiscipline etc) KES will be hammered very badly.
My view is NSE20 will still test 3300 or overshoot to 3000 before we get money rushing into the market again. Atleast six months from now for NSE20 to test 3300 points seabed. It will be gradual and not with a bang. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Spikes wrote:hisah wrote:2016 critical signal reminder.
This year's currency theme is the yuan. Should the USDCNY rate zoom past 6.83 (GFC peg level) serious damage will ensue across board as the USD strength squeeze everyone!
How will KE deal with this nasty curve ball when gok has already mismanaged its cash position!?! If gok forces money to be printed (elections "goodies" - fiscal indiscipline etc) KES will be hammered very badly.
My view is NSE20 will still test 3300 or overshoot to 3000 before we get money rushing into the market again. Atleast six months from now for NSE20 to test 3300 points seabed. It will be gradual and not with a bang. Isn't it weird that CGT is no longer applicable from 2016, but equities can't mount a rocket rally  
Isn't it weird that IF tax-free bonds subscription is poor since Dec 2015??
KE confidence is on trial. If investors don't feel confident with the investment environment bulls don't have a chance. Foreigners are busying chasing the USD rocket. GoK has an uphill task on convincing them to stay put. USD for now is like a huge ship while KES is a boat. You can't notice the boat out in the sea, but you can easily spot the ship...
In the meantime as the market discounts value stocks, we welcome it's generosity for it doesn't last for too long  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:Spikes wrote:hisah wrote:2016 critical signal reminder.
This year's currency theme is the yuan. Should the USDCNY rate zoom past 6.83 (GFC peg level) serious damage will ensue across board as the USD strength squeeze everyone!
How will KE deal with this nasty curve ball when gok has already mismanaged its cash position!?! If gok forces money to be printed (elections "goodies" - fiscal indiscipline etc) KES will be hammered very badly.
My view is NSE20 will still test 3300 or overshoot to 3000 before we get money rushing into the market again. Atleast six months from now for NSE20 to test 3300 points seabed. It will be gradual and not with a bang. Isn't it weird that CGT is no longer applicable from 2016, but equities can't mount a rocket rally
Isn't it weird that IF tax-free bonds subscription is poor since Dec 2015??
KE confidence is on trial. If investors don't feel confident with the investment environment bulls don't have a chance. Foreigners are busying chasing the USD rocket. GoK has an uphill task on convincing them to stay put. USD for now is like a huge ship while KES is a boat. You can't notice the boat out in the sea, but you can easily spot the ship...
In the meantime as the market discounts value stocks, we welcome it's generosity for it doesn't last for too long The low(er) oil prices will benefit many firms eg. KK, KQ [well, if they haven't got crazy upside-down hedges], Unga, etc that rely on transport. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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VituVingiSana wrote:hisah wrote:Spikes wrote:hisah wrote:2016 critical signal reminder.
This year's currency theme is the yuan. Should the USDCNY rate zoom past 6.83 (GFC peg level) serious damage will ensue across board as the USD strength squeeze everyone!
How will KE deal with this nasty curve ball when gok has already mismanaged its cash position!?! If gok forces money to be printed (elections "goodies" - fiscal indiscipline etc) KES will be hammered very badly.
My view is NSE20 will still test 3300 or overshoot to 3000 before we get money rushing into the market again. Atleast six months from now for NSE20 to test 3300 points seabed. It will be gradual and not with a bang. Isn't it weird that CGT is no longer applicable from 2016, but equities can't mount a rocket rally
Isn't it weird that IF tax-free bonds subscription is poor since Dec 2015??
KE confidence is on trial. If investors don't feel confident with the investment environment bulls don't have a chance. Foreigners are busying chasing the USD rocket. GoK has an uphill task on convincing them to stay put. USD for now is like a huge ship while KES is a boat. You can't notice the boat out in the sea, but you can easily spot the ship...
In the meantime as the market discounts value stocks, we welcome it's generosity for it doesn't last for too long The low(er) oil prices will benefit many firms eg. KK, KQ [well, if they haven't got crazy upside-down hedges], Unga, etc that rely on transport. Everything regarding KE is not looking good. It is very hard to envision where a bull run is going to sprout from. A lot of drawbacks are yet to be resolved. 2016 will be a strong bear year we had better get acquainted to that fact. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:hisah wrote:Spikes wrote:hisah wrote:2016 critical signal reminder.
This year's currency theme is the yuan. Should the USDCNY rate zoom past 6.83 (GFC peg level) serious damage will ensue across board as the USD strength squeeze everyone!
How will KE deal with this nasty curve ball when gok has already mismanaged its cash position!?! If gok forces money to be printed (elections "goodies" - fiscal indiscipline etc) KES will be hammered very badly.
My view is NSE20 will still test 3300 or overshoot to 3000 before we get money rushing into the market again. Atleast six months from now for NSE20 to test 3300 points seabed. It will be gradual and not with a bang. Isn't it weird that CGT is no longer applicable from 2016, but equities can't mount a rocket rally
Isn't it weird that IF tax-free bonds subscription is poor since Dec 2015??
KE confidence is on trial. If investors don't feel confident with the investment environment bulls don't have a chance. Foreigners are busying chasing the USD rocket. GoK has an uphill task on convincing them to stay put. USD for now is like a huge ship while KES is a boat. You can't notice the boat out in the sea, but you can easily spot the ship...
In the meantime as the market discounts value stocks, we welcome it's generosity for it doesn't last for too long The low(er) oil prices will benefit many firms eg. KK, KQ [well, if they haven't got crazy upside-down hedges], Unga, etc that rely on transport. Everything regarding KE is not looking good. It is very hard to envision where a bull run is going to sprout from. A lot of drawbacks are yet to be resolved. 2016 will be a strong bear year we had better get acquainted to that fact. The broad market will suffer (price of shares) including the shares of profitable firms. Nevertheless, for those who can buy and afford to wait... some firms will do better than others. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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