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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Mukiri
#1301 Posted : Sunday, December 06, 2015 8:54:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
mnandii wrote:
We have said it before but it bears reminding.

Why Your Bank Deposits May Be at Risk

Read more: http://www.elliottwave.c...Risk.aspx#ixzz3tQZlC1nJ
Follow us: @elliottwaveintl on Twitter | ElliottWaveInternational on Facebook

Where then to park money? Bitcoins?

Proverbs 19:21
tmatekwa
#1302 Posted : Sunday, December 06, 2015 9:55:35 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/1/2007
Posts: 232
Anyone that tries to tell you that a global financial crisis is not happening is not being honest with you. Right now, there are 27 major global stock markets that have declined by double digit percentages from their peaks earlier this year. And this is truly a global phenomenon – we have seen stock market crashes in Asia, Europe, South America, Africa and the Middle East. But because U.S. stocks are only down less than a thousand points from the peak earlier this year, most Americans seem to think that everything is just fine.
The truth, of course, is that everything is not fine. We are witnessing a pattern similar to what we saw back in 2008. Back then, Chinese stocks and other major stock markets started crashing first, and then U.S. stocks followed later.
And it appears that we may have entered the next leg down for markets in the western world this week. The Dow was down another 252 points on Thursday, and all of the major stock indexes in the U.S. are now negative for the year except for the NASDAQ. Unless there is a major turnaround in the coming weeks, the six year winning streak for U.S. stocks is likely over.
But when you step back and look at what has been happening globally, a much more ominous picture emerges. I spent much of the afternoon looking at stock market charts for the largest economies all over the globe. What I discovered was financial carnage that was much worse than I anticipated.
It turns out that there are 27 major global stock markets that have fallen by more than 10 percent from peaks that were set earlier this year. If you want to verify this information for yourself, just go to Trading Economics. As you can see, many of these stock market declines have been quite impressive…
1. China: down more than 30 percent
2. Saudi Arabia: down 26 percent
3. Germany: down about 13 percent
4. United Kingdom: down close to 12 percent
5. Spain: down 15 percent
6. Brazil: down more than 22 percent (13,000 points overall)
7. Kuwait: down 14 percent
8. Turkey: down 16 percent
9. India: down close to 12 percent
10. Chile: down 11 percent
11. Columbia: down about 30 percent
12. Peru: down more than 40 percent
13. Bulgaria: down more than 20 percent
14. Greece: down more than 30 percent
15. Poland: down about 19 percent
16. Malaysia: down 10 percent
17. Egypt: down 32 percent
18. Indonesia: down 18 percent
19. Canada: down 12 percent
20. Ukraine: down 45 percent
21. Morocco: down 13 percent
22. Ghana: down 17 percent
23. Kenya: down 27 percent
24. Australia: down 13 percent
25. Nigeria: down more than 30 percent
26. Taiwan: down 15 percent
27. Thailand: down 20 percent
We have not seen numbers like these since 2008, and trillions of dollars of stock market wealth has been wiped out globally. So the “nothing is happening” crowd is simply dead wrong. Stocks are already crashing all over the planet. Just because the big U.S. stock market crash has not happened quite yet does not mean that a major global financial crisis is not happening.
But do you know what is crashing here in this country?
Junk bonds.
At this point, yields on the riskiest junk bonds have risen to levels that we have not seen since the last financial crisis. As I have discussed repeatedly, yields on junk bonds spiked dramatically just before the stock market crash of 2008, and now it is happening again…
Spikes
#1303 Posted : Sunday, December 06, 2015 10:29:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
You mean to say globally cash is King?
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
sparkly
#1304 Posted : Monday, December 07, 2015 6:53:21 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
tmatekwa wrote:
Anyone that tries to tell you that a global financial crisis is not happening is not being honest with you. Right now, there are 27 major global stock markets that have declined by double digit percentages from their peaks earlier this year. And this is truly a global phenomenon – we have seen stock market crashes in Asia, Europe, South America, Africa and the Middle East. But because U.S. stocks are only down less than a thousand points from the peak earlier this year, most Americans seem to think that everything is just fine.
The truth, of course, is that everything is not fine. We are witnessing a pattern similar to what we saw back in 2008. Back then, Chinese stocks and other major stock markets started crashing first, and then U.S. stocks followed later.
And it appears that we may have entered the next leg down for markets in the western world this week. The Dow was down another 252 points on Thursday, and all of the major stock indexes in the U.S. are now negative for the year except for the NASDAQ. Unless there is a major turnaround in the coming weeks, the six year winning streak for U.S. stocks is likely over.
But when you step back and look at what has been happening globally, a much more ominous picture emerges. I spent much of the afternoon looking at stock market charts for the largest economies all over the globe. What I discovered was financial carnage that was much worse than I anticipated.
It turns out that there are 27 major global stock markets that have fallen by more than 10 percent from peaks that were set earlier this year. If you want to verify this information for yourself, just go to Trading Economics. As you can see, many of these stock market declines have been quite impressive…
1. China: down more than 30 percent
2. Saudi Arabia: down 26 percent
3. Germany: down about 13 percent
4. United Kingdom: down close to 12 percent
5. Spain: down 15 percent
6. Brazil: down more than 22 percent (13,000 points overall)
7. Kuwait: down 14 percent
8. Turkey: down 16 percent
9. India: down close to 12 percent
10. Chile: down 11 percent
11. Columbia: down about 30 percent
12. Peru: down more than 40 percent
13. Bulgaria: down more than 20 percent
14. Greece: down more than 30 percent
15. Poland: down about 19 percent
16. Malaysia: down 10 percent
17. Egypt: down 32 percent
18. Indonesia: down 18 percent
19. Canada: down 12 percent
20. Ukraine: down 45 percent
21. Morocco: down 13 percent
22. Ghana: down 17 percent
23. Kenya: down 27 percent
24. Australia: down 13 percent
25. Nigeria: down more than 30 percent
26. Taiwan: down 15 percent
27. Thailand: down 20 percent
We have not seen numbers like these since 2008, and trillions of dollars of stock market wealth has been wiped out globally. So the “nothing is happening” crowd is simply dead wrong. Stocks are already crashing all over the planet. Just because the big U.S. stock market crash has not happened quite yet does not mean that a major global financial crisis is not happening.
But do you know what is crashing here in this country?
Junk bonds.
At this point, yields on the riskiest junk bonds have risen to levels that we have not seen since the last financial crisis. As I have discussed repeatedly, yields on junk bonds spiked dramatically just before the stock market crash of 2008, and now it is happening again…



It was prophesized
www.wazua.co.ke/forum.aspx?g=posts&t=27306

Life is short. Live passionately.
lochaz-index
#1305 Posted : Monday, December 07, 2015 8:35:29 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
tmatekwa wrote:
Anyone that tries to tell you that a global financial crisis is not happening is not being honest with you. Right now, there are 27 major global stock markets that have declined by double digit percentages from their peaks earlier this year. And this is truly a global phenomenon – we have seen stock market crashes in Asia, Europe, South America, Africa and the Middle East. But because U.S. stocks are only down less than a thousand points from the peak earlier this year, most Americans seem to think that everything is just fine.
The truth, of course, is that everything is not fine. We are witnessing a pattern similar to what we saw back in 2008. Back then, Chinese stocks and other major stock markets started crashing first, and then U.S. stocks followed later.
And it appears that we may have entered the next leg down for markets in the western world this week. The Dow was down another 252 points on Thursday, and all of the major stock indexes in the U.S. are now negative for the year except for the NASDAQ. Unless there is a major turnaround in the coming weeks, the six year winning streak for U.S. stocks is likely over.
But when you step back and look at what has been happening globally, a much more ominous picture emerges. I spent much of the afternoon looking at stock market charts for the largest economies all over the globe. What I discovered was financial carnage that was much worse than I anticipated.
It turns out that there are 27 major global stock markets that have fallen by more than 10 percent from peaks that were set earlier this year. If you want to verify this information for yourself, just go to Trading Economics. As you can see, many of these stock market declines have been quite impressive…
1. China: down more than 30 percent
2. Saudi Arabia: down 26 percent
3. Germany: down about 13 percent
4. United Kingdom: down close to 12 percent
5. Spain: down 15 percent
6. Brazil: down more than 22 percent (13,000 points overall)
7. Kuwait: down 14 percent
8. Turkey: down 16 percent
9. India: down close to 12 percent
10. Chile: down 11 percent
11. Columbia: down about 30 percent
12. Peru: down more than 40 percent
13. Bulgaria: down more than 20 percent
14. Greece: down more than 30 percent
15. Poland: down about 19 percent
16. Malaysia: down 10 percent
17. Egypt: down 32 percent
18. Indonesia: down 18 percent
19. Canada: down 12 percent
20. Ukraine: down 45 percent
21. Morocco: down 13 percent
22. Ghana: down 17 percent
23. Kenya: down 27 percent
24. Australia: down 13 percent
25. Nigeria: down more than 30 percent
26. Taiwan: down 15 percent
27. Thailand: down 20 percent
We have not seen numbers like these since 2008, and trillions of dollars of stock market wealth has been wiped out globally. So the “nothing is happening” crowd is simply dead wrong. Stocks are already crashing all over the planet. Just because the big U.S. stock market crash has not happened quite yet does not mean that a major global financial crisis is not happening.
But do you know what is crashing here in this country?
Junk bonds.
At this point, yields on the riskiest junk bonds have risen to levels that we have not seen since the last financial crisis. As I have discussed repeatedly, yields on junk bonds spiked dramatically just before the stock market crash of 2008, and now it is happening again…


US equities should be gate crashing this party in a big way by end of Q1 2016.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
hisah
#1306 Posted : Monday, December 07, 2015 9:33:03 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
CFOs of listed firms summoned over accounting fraud

Such things only happen in a bear market. Nobody likes being the party spoiler. Regulators only act when the party is over.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#1307 Posted : Friday, December 11, 2015 2:14:11 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@mnandii, spot this KE eurobond yield rally! KES is going to get nailed very soon! I hope we won't go the Zambia way - praying for the currency after a nasty bloodbath!

Those firms holding forex loans... And those that floated forex bonds... That eurobond trend should be a critical discussion in their finance departments.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
shiznit
#1308 Posted : Friday, December 11, 2015 2:21:41 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 5/21/2013
Posts: 72
Location: KENYA
hisah wrote:
@mnandii, spot this KE eurobond yield rally! KES is going to get nailed very soon! I hope we won't go the Zambia way - praying for the currency after a nasty bloodbath!

Those firms holding forex loans... And those that floated forex bonds... That eurobond trend should be a critical discussion in their finance departments.



@hisah, could you explain why that is so? I have problems understanding the relations behind debt yields and currency.
“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” - John Maynard Keynes
hisah
#1309 Posted : Friday, December 11, 2015 3:44:20 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
shiznit wrote:
hisah wrote:
@mnandii, spot this KE eurobond yield rally! KES is going to get nailed very soon! I hope we won't go the Zambia way - praying for the currency after a nasty bloodbath!

Those firms holding forex loans... And those that floated forex bonds... That eurobond trend should be a critical discussion in their finance departments.



@hisah, could you explain why that is so? I have problems understanding the relations behind debt yields and currency.

Confidence in matters KE is on trial. Capital flight! Liquidity crunch follows. If gok or a corporate heads to the market now trying to sell debt the bond investors will be standing in line with a shotgun demanding higher rates! Where will the USD loot come from for international pay settlement? CBK can't print the USD. So they'll likely print KES to buy the scarce USD from the local market. And that's when sh** will hit the fan!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
muandiwambeu
#1310 Posted : Saturday, December 12, 2015 8:11:52 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
hisah wrote:
shiznit wrote:
hisah wrote:
@mnandii, spot this KE eurobond yield rally! KES is going to get nailed very soon! I hope we won't go the Zambia way - praying for the currency after a nasty bloodbath!

Those firms holding forex loans... And those that floated forex bonds... That eurobond trend should be a critical discussion in their finance departments.



@hisah, could you explain why that is so? I have problems understanding the relations behind debt yields and currency.

Confidence in matters KE is on trial. Capital flight! Liquidity crunch follows. If gok or a corporate heads to the market now trying to sell debt the bond investors will be standing in line with a shotgun demanding higher rates! Where will the USD loot come from for international pay settlement? CBK can't print the USD. So they'll likely print KES to buy the scarce USD from the local market. And that's when sh** will hit the fan!

Following keenly. All my senses seams to be in agreement, but sensitivity may vary.
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
Liv
#1311 Posted : Saturday, December 12, 2015 10:08:54 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
muandiwambeu wrote:
hisah wrote:
shiznit wrote:
hisah wrote:
@mnandii, spot this KE eurobond yield rally! KES is going to get nailed very soon! I hope we won't go the Zambia way - praying for the currency after a nasty bloodbath!

Those firms holding forex loans... And those that floated forex bonds... That eurobond trend should be a critical discussion in their finance departments.



@hisah, could you explain why that is so? I have problems understanding the relations behind debt yields and currency.

Confidence in matters KE is on trial. Capital flight! Liquidity crunch follows. If gok or a corporate heads to the market now trying to sell debt the bond investors will be standing in line with a shotgun demanding higher rates! Where will the USD loot come from for international pay settlement? CBK can't print the USD. So they'll likely print KES to buy the scarce USD from the local market. And that's when sh** will hit the fan!

Following keenly. All my senses seams to be in agreement, but sensitivity may vary.


As @Hisa says this is an "if" situation. At the moment the Shs has stabilized against the dollar and the CBK is in the market buying USD. I guess before the government decides to go for another Eurobond they have to consider many other factors. By the time the current Eurobond Loan matures, other factors like proceeds from tourism, horticulture, etc will come to play. The government can adjust interest rates again in future to stabilize the dollar. So I don't see much to be alarmed about from the the rise of the Eurobond yields.
mlennyma
#1312 Posted : Monday, December 14, 2015 11:35:32 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
The market has gone for holiday two weeks before xmas,i can see only 4 minor gains by 11.30am
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
hisah
#1313 Posted : Tuesday, December 15, 2015 5:32:17 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Anti bank crusade continues. Fat tails will be plenty in this sector for nice cherry picking after this wave passes.

http://mobile.nation.co....l/-/dnoikv/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#1314 Posted : Tuesday, December 15, 2015 11:25:09 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
hisah wrote:
@mnandii, SPT, sparkly have a look at the NBK long term chart. Can you spot the falling wedge breakout!!! The price will plunge very sharply!

With the current drama unfolding in the banking sector I'm keenly following this counter. GoK debt drama and this gok bank promise to stage a nice thriller.


NBK has issues regardless of high T-Bill rates or a bear market. It is under-capitalized [poor CARs] and lives on the largesse of GoK. If its loan book was assessed using metrics of more conservative banks, it would be closed down faster than Imperial Bank!

True. That is why GoK will soon combine NBK, Consolidated and Development banks. In a few months..

Wedge breakout to the downside as price prints below 15 handle to close at 14.80. Sharp plunge coming up!

Breaks below 14 handle. VWAP at 13.85 and prints a new all time low of 13.55. Wedge breakouts are usually powerful when the move gets going.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
streetwise
#1315 Posted : Tuesday, December 15, 2015 11:30:28 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/23/2011
Posts: 1,740
Location: Nairobi
I have a feeling that the may be creative accounting at this bank and the trust in the managemnet i low. Eating may be included when analysing this stock. The Wazua insiders what do you know. Lets help our brothers before they burn
Othelo
#1316 Posted : Tuesday, December 15, 2015 11:39:48 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
hisah wrote:
@mnandii, SPT, sparkly have a look at the NBK long term chart. Can you spot the falling wedge breakout!!! The price will plunge very sharply!

With the current drama unfolding in the banking sector I'm keenly following this counter. GoK debt drama and this gok bank promise to stage a nice thriller.


NBK has issues regardless of high T-Bill rates or a bear market. It is under-capitalized [poor CARs] and lives on the largesse of GoK. If its loan book was assessed using metrics of more conservative banks, it would be closed down faster than Imperial Bank!

True. That is why GoK will soon combine NBK, Consolidated and Development banks. In a few months..

Wedge breakout to the downside as price prints below 15 handle to close at 14.80. Sharp plunge coming up!

Breaks below 14 handle. VWAP at 13.85 and prints a new all time low of 13.55. Wedge breakouts are usually powerful when the move gets going.

This thing was recommended by Cyton just the other day smile
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
hisah
#1317 Posted : Tuesday, December 15, 2015 11:49:17 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Simba trading at 40.
Member trading at 40.
NIC trading at 40.

Value Heaven!!!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
VituVingiSana
#1318 Posted : Tuesday, December 15, 2015 12:12:30 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,124
Location: Nairobi
NBK is living due to the grace of GoK.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
hisah
#1319 Posted : Tuesday, December 15, 2015 12:21:11 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
This how global banks are fairing for those that think the anti-bank KE theme is just local. It's global!? Most euroland bank stocks are so bearish.

Deutsche Bank AG


Stanchart PLC - London


Their American counterparts will be joining them soon.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
whiteowl
#1320 Posted : Tuesday, December 15, 2015 12:36:46 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
hisah wrote:
This how global banks are fairing for those that think the anti-bank KE theme is just local. It's global!? Most euroland bank stocks are so bearish.

Deutsche Bank AG


Stanchart PLC - London


Their American counterparts will be joining them soon.



LOL even keeping huge amounts of cash in banks nowadays is scary.
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