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Kenya Debt Watch
Scubidu
#1 Posted : Tuesday, March 23, 2010 5:11:35 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Treasury over shoots its borrowing targets but says that borrowing was necessary to finance unplanned events; e.g., maize importation and power generation. Read the article below:

http://www.businessdaily.../-/15qtw7m/-/index.html

Interesting parts of the BD article:

Heavy borrowing by the government is usually associated with high interest rates that arises from the crowding out of the private sector from the debt market but analysts reckoned a combination of monetary policy actions and structuring of the debt has smoothened it out.

The failure of this heavy domestic borrowing to negatively impact on interest rates has been the subject of intense debate among analysts with some attributing the relative stability to the fact that a significant fraction of the debt is long term and has been put into investment as opposed to consumption.

“From July to March the cumulative expenditure on interest and other charges on domestic debt amounted to Sh39.5 billion compared with Sh31.9 billion in a similar period in the last fiscal year”, said CBK in its latest Weekly Bulletin.
At this rate, the interest payments is higher than development vote for the Ministries of Roads, Education, and Energy whose votes were Sh28 billion, Sh16 billion and Sh20 billion respectively.


From those three excerpts can we conclude that experts believe (1) private sector hasn't been crowded out (2) govt spending is not 100% recurrent (3) the cost of debt financing may not be sustainable (see post 43 & 59 in the CBK reduces rate thread). Some economists aren't worried by Debt to GDP levels (at ~40%) as they bank on higher revenues, economic growth, higher tax receipts...but what will keep this ratio depressed in the long run...lower inflation...they've done their homework.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Wa_ithaka
#2 Posted : Tuesday, March 23, 2010 6:09:25 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Of it has crowded out private sector. A lot of the banks have refused to lend to the private sector and did so to GoK instead.
Even worse, most of this borrowing was done to finance non-income generating activities.
Secondly, the borrowing today will effectively impact future ability to borrow given the rising interest repayment.
Recurrent non-productive expending has increased-note we have 42 ministries and 4,000 commissions without any reductions elsewhere.
And ofcourse nobody has factored in the leakages via corrupsion et al
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
kizee
#3 Posted : Tuesday, March 23, 2010 7:42:08 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
this just in....CBR cut by 25 bps...very unexpected really cbk are hell bent on forcing banks to lend..maybe cbk shud advise theyr client-read GoK to stop overborrowing
Scubidu
#4 Posted : Wednesday, March 24, 2010 7:31:06 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
I also think they have crowded out the market, and BD has done a great article. I wonder how far the CBR will decline in future...if they were optimistic about economic growth, they may be worried about too low interest rates. Let's see how investors respond to the Tbond auction this month. I wonder if returns will be high enough to entice investors.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scubidu
#5 Posted : Thursday, March 25, 2010 10:17:44 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
It seems govt will not stop overborrowing and should come clean on why private sector borrowing hasn't recovered...another record level of borrowing ~16b. What impact does this have on domestic debt? I wud like to see omo activity on the value date. Would the returns on a 15yr paper be attractive to you?-just under 10%. Check out auction results below:

http://www.centralbank.g...bonds/manualresults.aspx
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
guru267
#6 Posted : Thursday, March 25, 2010 11:27:32 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
i dont think there is anything wrong or any worry with G.O.K over borrowing especially since most of the debt is reproductive and capital expenidture based...

if all the debt taken is put in the investment which it is meant for.. then i believe that the debt will pay for itself in the long term...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Intelligentsia
#7 Posted : Thursday, March 25, 2010 3:49:11 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/1/2009
Posts: 2,436
Traditionally GoK spending has been on recurrent expenditure in lieu of development expenditure...and most of the govt recurrent expenditure is used to pay the wage bill of a bloated govt and quasi-govt (read parastatals) bodies so leaving kidogo sana amts for R&D, infrastructure, Health (why we have a curative as opposed to a curative model),etc. On health what I mean is that our systems are geared towards curing diseases instead of preventing them. Plus zamani City Council used to spray stagnant amts of water in drainages, cut grass, etc to ward off disease-casuing mosquitoes. That is preventive. Nowadays, the bulk of poor folks just to go KNH (which is a referral hosi btw!)- that is, they go there for a cure (thus curative model). The bottom-to-top hierarchy should be dispensaries, district hospitals, provincial hospitals and then referral hospitals of which KNH is the main one. Yaani u go to KNH because all the rest were unable to treat your problem.
But guys flock to KNH because of failure of these other smaller health units. Ergo, the overcrowding at KNH is a symptom of too much of our budget spent on recurrent expenditure instead of developing say, our health infrastructure, leading to collapse of some dispensaries and drug stocks outtages at NCC dispensaries, district and provincial hosp.

In fact Mwalimu Mati's Mars Group observed that only 15% of our national income goes the development kitty (where a lot is pilfered on the way anyway, meaning even less reaches the intended beneficiaries)- this in a country where 80% of the folks are poor...
http://blog.marsgroupkenya.org/?p=119

Be that as it may, I was thrilled to bits when they allocated a good chunk of the budget in 2008 to the modernisation of the armed forces. About time! Yes we may moan about we are not at war, that health and education and all that have been neglected but a strong force is a deterrent force in an increasingly dangerous neighbourhood some with expansionist ambitions. Plus the last time our armed forces bought quality materiel (jet fighters/ Vickers tanks,etc) was 32 years ago! In 1978 to be precise. And now, even Tz has 6 of the more sophisticated Mig -29 Fulcrums!

Caveat: So long the money is not invested in junk aircraft or stolen...



Much Know
#8 Posted : Thursday, March 25, 2010 5:01:36 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,579
@scubi, all government paper including cash represents credit(gova borrows and not guarantees on gold holdings etc as some would want) . i think when the governor spoke, he made it clear that he was forced to spend because of
1. Maize imports
2. Emergency Power generators.
In other words he was asking economist, now that we have good rains, what do you expect? A government bond can be used to mop up liquidity as well as to allow government to spend when the public is not borrowing to encourage public borrowing and investment. The goverment may also translate economic gains into print which was the desparate governors erstwhile only option. Its my opinion that the gova is indeed indicating its control on the shilling through this move averting fear of inflation especially given recent economic gains where it was busy converting gains to cash 'to pay for maize and generators'. If oil is found tomorrow, it will issue bonds and cash even more liberally on obvious gains ahead(dont worry am also confused by what i am writing)
Ras Kienyeji Man
Wa_ithaka
#9 Posted : Thursday, March 25, 2010 7:45:30 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
much know-your last line made sense
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
Scubidu
#10 Posted : Thursday, March 25, 2010 8:19:14 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi

@guru267. Yup, ur right. I understand borrowing for stimulus spending, but I think the past auction wasn't stimulus, so I wonder if they'll be just as accountable. You don't talk much about the macro trends in Kampala...any gud UG vibe?

@Intelligentsia. Those are excellent examples... water situation, I remember they had to drain some dam sometime ago to repair it, I wonder how much could have been saved if these long term plans were set in motion to manage the water dams, even forests (glad most r being fenced). same thing with the power deficit...reactive rather than proactive policy...they need IPPs to swoop in quickly to build infrastructure b4 the 2012 elections...interestingly I looked at my power bill again for February, KPLC is charging 674 cents per kwh for fuel cost adjustment, a friend of mine got 783 cents (guess I'm the lucky 1...but 674 is about the same level they were charging six months ago b4 Aggreko ep)... they're spending on food imports but I don't know how much money has gone into developing new food reserve crops, ones that can be stored, other than maize/wheat somehow (don't know if possible) more resistant to drought conditions...I mean how do the Israeli guys farm stuff in the desert...I don't know but there must be away to avoid this, irrigation methods, isn't that what uni's like JKUAT are all about, being proactive. but how u know so much about armed forces, what's a Mig-29 Fulcrum? Dude I wasn't alive 30 years ago but wud be interested in the kind of fire power our armed forces have now. Last time I saw them wheeling tanks through our country, it caused an uproar.

@much know. u have a way with words. I don't think I make sense half the time either, ... what if the private sector recovers, economic gains continue, they start borrowing huge & govt finally spends stimulus will cbk's tools be sufficient enable them to avert inflation...u said they're using the govt bond to mop up liquidity, so wud that mean to mop up further liquidity they'll need to issue more bonds, or suspend spending (temporarily) on projects already committed to. Looks like the power generators will be used less in the following months and the maize shortage in April will be allievated in time, but what will we be stick with us...all these govt bonds, of which GOK can only afford to pay interest.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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