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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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Most Wazuans are being shafted by the law of gravity! John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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maka wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:In the short term, I think we are headed for a tug of war between the cbk and the banks. The sudden(manipulated) drop in the tbills and bonds is meant to cushion the government from the coming 2016 financial/debt storm.
By affording the government some breathing space, treasury is able to source for cheap debt repayments funds in the domestic front hence the latest directive by cbk for banks to lower interest rates.
Problem is with the economy in bad shape, the premium(k)-inclusive of credit risk-charged by banks over and above the KBRR is more likely to increase than reduce. By directing the banks to lower interest rates, the cbk is forcing them to expand their loan books and give out riskier credit with no corresponding return. This will in turn exercebate their NPL's, LLP's and various capital ratios. It will be foolhardy of them to comply.
Knowing the drop in rates is temporary I don't expect banks to budge on interest rates. The cbk might be forced onto more desperate measures to reign in the banks.
This should take a while to resolve itself and both can't have their way. Very perceptive and the same discussion I was having yesterday. The banks have increased their "K" to catch up to the high T-Bill rates and are unlikely to reduce the "K" any time soon. @Loach + VVS...what can CBK do about it? Not much. CBK can 'jawbone' (make noise) banks into lowering rates but these are market forces at play. That's why competition is good and I am against the foolish attempts to force consolidation. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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VituVingiSana wrote:maka wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:In the short term, I think we are headed for a tug of war between the cbk and the banks. The sudden(manipulated) drop in the tbills and bonds is meant to cushion the government from the coming 2016 financial/debt storm.
By affording the government some breathing space, treasury is able to source for cheap debt repayments funds in the domestic front hence the latest directive by cbk for banks to lower interest rates.
Problem is with the economy in bad shape, the premium(k)-inclusive of credit risk-charged by banks over and above the KBRR is more likely to increase than reduce. By directing the banks to lower interest rates, the cbk is forcing them to expand their loan books and give out riskier credit with no corresponding return. This will in turn exercebate their NPL's, LLP's and various capital ratios. It will be foolhardy of them to comply.
Knowing the drop in rates is temporary I don't expect banks to budge on interest rates. The cbk might be forced onto more desperate measures to reign in the banks.
This should take a while to resolve itself and both can't have their way. Very perceptive and the same discussion I was having yesterday. The banks have increased their "K" to catch up to the high T-Bill rates and are unlikely to reduce the "K" any time soon. @Loach + VVS...what can CBK do about it? Not much. CBK can 'jawbone' (make noise) banks into lowering rates but these are market forces at play. That's why competition is good and I am against the foolish attempts to force consolidation. http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/pvtg2hz/-/index.html
Some respite though temporary in nature. New loans to wanjiku however will be minimal at best given the macros. Its better to sit on cash plus the reverse repos loot and wait for treasury to come with a begging bowl(most probably by end of January) and lend to them at record rates 'risk free'. The cbk is a sitting duck at this moment. Punitive measures imposed on banks are going to spook the market even further thus counterproductive to the cbk endeavors to stabilize rates. That imperial bank saga does not help the situation either. At some point, the tbill/bond rates will not be so easy to meddle with(market wise) and interest rates will price in that development. Let us see how it pans out. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:maka wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:In the short term, I think we are headed for a tug of war between the cbk and the banks. The sudden(manipulated) drop in the tbills and bonds is meant to cushion the government from the coming 2016 financial/debt storm.
By affording the government some breathing space, treasury is able to source for cheap debt repayments funds in the domestic front hence the latest directive by cbk for banks to lower interest rates.
Problem is with the economy in bad shape, the premium(k)-inclusive of credit risk-charged by banks over and above the KBRR is more likely to increase than reduce. By directing the banks to lower interest rates, the cbk is forcing them to expand their loan books and give out riskier credit with no corresponding return. This will in turn exercebate their NPL's, LLP's and various capital ratios. It will be foolhardy of them to comply.
Knowing the drop in rates is temporary I don't expect banks to budge on interest rates. The cbk might be forced onto more desperate measures to reign in the banks.
This should take a while to resolve itself and both can't have their way. Very perceptive and the same discussion I was having yesterday. The banks have increased their "K" to catch up to the high T-Bill rates and are unlikely to reduce the "K" any time soon. @Loach + VVS...what can CBK do about it? Not much. CBK can 'jawbone' (make noise) banks into lowering rates but these are market forces at play. That's why competition is good and I am against the foolish attempts to force consolidation. http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/pvtg2hz/-/index.html
Some respite though temporary in nature. New loans to wanjiku however will be minimal at best given the macros. Its better to sit on cash plus the reverse repos loot and wait for treasury to come with a begging bowl(most probably by end of January) and lend to them at record rates 'risk free'. The cbk is a sitting duck at this moment. Punitive measures imposed on banks are going to spook the market even further thus counterproductive to the cbk endeavors to stabilize rates. That imperial bank saga does not help the situation either. At some point, the tbill/bond rates will not be so easy to meddle with(market wise) and interest rates will price in that development. Let us see how it pans out. The financial system is built on thin ice called trust. When that trust foundation is violated ugly things happen. A time will come when the eurobond market will also question this trust. It's a bad time for the system to have a trust test both local political period and current geopolitics affairs.
When trust is violated fundamentals and common sense get dumped out the window. Waiting for that stanlib IPO as the genuine pig of this distrust period. It may be postponed!$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:maka wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:In the short term, I think we are headed for a tug of war between the cbk and the banks. The sudden(manipulated) drop in the tbills and bonds is meant to cushion the government from the coming 2016 financial/debt storm.
By affording the government some breathing space, treasury is able to source for cheap debt repayments funds in the domestic front hence the latest directive by cbk for banks to lower interest rates.
Problem is with the economy in bad shape, the premium(k)-inclusive of credit risk-charged by banks over and above the KBRR is more likely to increase than reduce. By directing the banks to lower interest rates, the cbk is forcing them to expand their loan books and give out riskier credit with no corresponding return. This will in turn exercebate their NPL's, LLP's and various capital ratios. It will be foolhardy of them to comply.
Knowing the drop in rates is temporary I don't expect banks to budge on interest rates. The cbk might be forced onto more desperate measures to reign in the banks.
This should take a while to resolve itself and both can't have their way. Very perceptive and the same discussion I was having yesterday. The banks have increased their "K" to catch up to the high T-Bill rates and are unlikely to reduce the "K" any time soon. @Loach + VVS...what can CBK do about it? Not much. CBK can 'jawbone' (make noise) banks into lowering rates but these are market forces at play. That's why competition is good and I am against the foolish attempts to force consolidation. http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/pvtg2hz/-/index.html
Some respite though temporary in nature. New loans to wanjiku however will be minimal at best given the macros. Its better to sit on cash plus the reverse repos loot and wait for treasury to come with a begging bowl(most probably by end of January) and lend to them at record rates 'risk free'. The cbk is a sitting duck at this moment. Punitive measures imposed on banks are going to spook the market even further thus counterproductive to the cbk endeavors to stabilize rates. That imperial bank saga does not help the situation either. At some point, the tbill/bond rates will not be so easy to meddle with(market wise) and interest rates will price in that development. Let us see how it pans out. The financial system is built on thin ice called trust. When that trust foundation is violated ugly things happen. A time will come when the eurobond market will also question this trust. It's a bad time for the system to have a trust test both local political period and current geopolitics affairs.
When trust is violated fundamentals and common sense get dumped out the window. Waiting for that stanlib IPO as the genuine pig of this distrust period. It may be postponed! I know the CMA isn't responsible for investors over-optimism but that Stanlib REIT is a no-no for investors. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Kenya trims 2015 growth view again, citing El Nino, tight moneyReality check setting in... This is a good sign. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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blame everything on El Nino 
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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whiteowl wrote:blame everything on El Nino It doesn't matter what will be used to take the blame as long as the reality check is sinking in.
Meanwhile something that @vvs has been a bitter opponent of is about to happen. Banking consolidation.
Experts see CBK move as bid to consolidate banks
When @young made is last wazua post he stated that he foresaw banking reorganization hitting KE just like what happened in his home town Nigeria.
If KE will host an international capital hub this will have to take place. Imperial bank will likely not open... What is that I've seen in the wires about Family bank?
I'll say it again, if one is holding bank stocks sit tight... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2007 Posts: 294
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The NSE 20 Share Index closed at 3946.99 Moving on up...movin on up... 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,555 Location: nairobi
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instinct wrote:The NSE 20 Share Index closed at 3946.99 Moving on up...movin on up... It was obvious. The NSE bear is no more. A cyclical relationship between tbills and stocks has been researched in the Graham papers from early 19th century.. Simply put, tbills move up, stocks moves down; and the reverse is true.. Reading does not finish the eyes..
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:whiteowl wrote:blame everything on El Nino It doesn't matter what will be used to take the blame as long as the reality check is sinking in.
Meanwhile something that @vvs has been a bitter opponent of is about to happen. Banking consolidation.
Experts see CBK move as bid to consolidate banks
When @young made is last wazua post he stated that he foresaw banking reorganization hitting KE just like what happened in his home town Nigeria.
If KE will host an international capital hub this will have to take place. Imperial bank will likely not open... What is that I've seen in the wires about Family bank?
I'll say it again, if one is holding bank stocks sit tight... I am OK with VOLUNTARY bank consolidation. That's biashara. That's similar to Williamson buying Kapchorua or Total buying Agip or Airtel buying YU or Stanbic buying CFC or GTB buying Fina. What I oppose is FORCED consolidation that leaves us with an oligopoly. I find that smaller banks give better services than the larger banks. In addition, larger banks pay low rates to (small-medium) savers compared with smaller banks. @hisah - if you read the article, it seems CBK wants 'new investors' to BUY into existing banks rather than bank consolidation. It's a roundabout way of shoring up weak banks. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/3/2014 Posts: 245
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hisah wrote:whiteowl wrote:blame everything on El Nino It doesn't matter what will be used to take the blame as long as the reality check is sinking in.
Meanwhile something that @vvs has been a bitter opponent of is about to happen. Banking consolidation.
Experts see CBK move as bid to consolidate banks
When @young made is last wazua post he stated that he foresaw banking reorganization hitting KE just like what happened in his home town Nigeria.
If KE will host an international capital hub this will have to take place. Imperial bank will likely not open... What is that I've seen in the wires about Family bank?
I'll say it again, if one is holding bank stocks sit tight... Nothing new just Omena being sacrificed The officials are: Roberty Oscar Nyaga- Branch Manager Josephine Njeri Waira- Branch Customer Care Service Supervisor Martin Kagiri- Operations Supervisor Meldon Onyango-Relationship Manager Nancy Njambi The Platinum Manager Head of Risk and Compliance In the world of securities, courage and patience become the supreme virtues after adequate knowledge and a tested judgment are at hand.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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Bulls now experiencing real upthrust! The bear is absolutely over in the medium term before it hits NSE 4200 after which it crumbles with a bang an opportunity to join in the likes of KQ @2bob. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2007 Posts: 294
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Spikes wrote:Bulls now experiencing real upthrust! The bear is absolutely over in the medium term before it hits NSE 4200 after which it crumbles with a bang an opportunity to join in the likes of KQ @2bob. Agreed... today it crosses 4000 on its way up..
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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instinct wrote:Spikes wrote:Bulls now experiencing real upthrust! The bear is absolutely over in the medium term before it hits NSE 4200 after which it crumbles with a bang an opportunity to join in the likes of KQ @2bob. Agreed... today it crosses 4000 on its way up.. those who know what a bull is are not comfortable when everything is being called a bull even a squirrel "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mlennyma wrote:instinct wrote:Spikes wrote:Bulls now experiencing real upthrust! The bear is absolutely over in the medium term before it hits NSE 4200 after which it crumbles with a bang an opportunity to join in the likes of KQ @2bob. Agreed... today it crosses 4000 on its way up.. those who know what a bull is are not comfortable when everything is being called a bull even a squirrel This is just a bounce after excessive selling pressure. For the bulls to take over they have to reclaim 5000 handle!$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:mlennyma wrote:instinct wrote:Spikes wrote:Bulls now experiencing real upthrust! The bear is absolutely over in the medium term before it hits NSE 4200 after which it crumbles with a bang an opportunity to join in the likes of KQ @2bob. Agreed... today it crosses 4000 on its way up.. those who know what a bull is are not comfortable when everything is being called a bull even a squirrel This is just a bounce after excessive selling pressure. For the bulls to take over they have to reclaim 5000 handle! By the time it gets to 5000, wont the bus have left.esp the fundies The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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My good feelings tells me mr.market will move sideways until new years optimism when we will see serious rallies "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,555 Location: nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:My good feelings tells me mr.market will move sideways until new years optimism when we will see serious rallies Serious rallies are here.. Check ARM, HFCK, SCOM, KNRE.. Up next NMG, BAMB, JUB..
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:mlennyma wrote:My good feelings tells me mr.market will move sideways until new years optimism when we will see serious rallies Serious rallies are here.. Check ARM, HFCK, SCOM, KNRE.. Up next NMG, BAMB, JUB.. not yet confirmed bro,when serious rallies happen they carry almost every monkey in the forest "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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