I have a dilemma. I see bargains. I have no cash.

I have some stocks which I like for the 3+ year period that is beyond the 2017 election.

I have given my reasons on multiple posts on what I hold these.

KenolKobil
KenRe
Unga
I&M
Williamson/Kapchorua

There are other shares here and there but the above are my core holdings. I think I am diversified but the question is what do I buy that is more promising than those above. And what do I sell from the above?

No more than 5-10 core holdings. I can concentrate better on managing, following, reviewing, attending AGMs, etc for only 10 holdings. I do not mind attending other AGMs or meetings if there is a chance it opens my eyes.

I don't want more than 1 pick per sector which is why I have just 1 Bank, 1 non-bank Financial, 1 FMCG Industrial, 1 agricultural and 1 commercial/trading firm.

As prices have fallen;
Centum pops out.
As does Equity & HFCK.
Britam too.
And KPLC [an old small position in place].

I am looking for value. I can wait 3+ years.

I have ZERO cash. And little is expected unless I sell. Ignore dividends with only 3% yields. I am not interested in speculation or thin volumes.

What would you do? And why?

sell still born KK and buy resurgent KQ

@Obiero I have officially crowned and ordained you KQ Captain-in-Chief!

@Sparkly. I have ZERO cash so I have to sell something to buy any of those you mentioned. What do I sell? Why? What do I buy why?

In other words why sell KK/Unga/Williamson & buy Bamburi/Safaricom/KCB/Equity...

I would do nothing coz the counters you're holding have proven resilient through out the bear.I also think the downtrend isn't over by a long shot so any bargains you may be seeing now will turn premium and leave you regretting why you jumped in too early.

@Aguy - I picked up a small IFB bond position recently when the rates were too juicy to be ignored. Hence the ZERO cash. Interest payments paid semi-annually but nothing of significance. I can sell the IFB at a profit but I need a solid reason to sell.

My dilemma is what do I sell? [And I need to know why] ... I don't want to sell a portion just to realize cash to buy something else without a solid reason. If I like a stock for all the right reasons, I want to go all in.

Following, reading about and analyzing 10 stocks is difficult so I prefer to concentrate on the Big Five (whatever those may be) but I have 5 significant but much smaller positions. These are either remnants of earlier larger positions (eg Olympia before I figured out MM is a crook) or some I started buying then stopped when prices rose or fundamentals changed eg FTGH.

I have a habit of selling part of a stock which has not lost much in my portfolio and buying another which I feel is beaten hard for no good reason

How did FTGH fundamentals change? I'm eyeing that stock.

Tbills and or mmf can help you be more liquid. And bond is good for discipline to avoid tempation of titling too much to stocks, the liquidy of mmf/tbills can swing both ways

I see your dilemma more clearly. I know you must have a short list of the stocks that you would want to replace some of your existing holdings. Compare the potential incoming with what you already have. valuations and future growth/prospects.
I can tell you for free that at the right price, the likes of equity, KCB, BAT, EABL, Safaricom, Jubilee trump most of the other stocks at similar valuations because they are solid firms that are minting billions and will continue to do so for decades, and as a result the market rewards and over rewards the share prices of these firms. That is a reason to add the big five or ten into ones portfolio. They will stabilise your portfolio and are bound to outperform the small caps over the long run. But at the right price.

Im intending to crowd my portfolio with some of them after missing/selling them in the last cycle.

@Museveni - I want to be somewhat diversified but not over-diversified hence 5-10 core holdings. So no more than 1 bank. Centum is an Investment Firm with a heavy focus on real estate. I am unlikely to sell KenRe [Insurance/Finance] at the current price.

@AGuy - FTGH needs to prove itself, as a listed firm, in a competitive Kenyan market.The cash from the Private Placement reduced debt & improved Working Capital. The reported sales & financial performance has been lackluster since the listing. It's not a HAFR but I am not rushing in. I will keep an eye on it for 6 months to see how it has coped with the recent turmoil. I am open to corrections and suggestions.

T-Bonds and T-Bills are very enticing. If I had more cash, I would have bought more when the rates were 20%. Low risk. Regular cash flow. Guaranteed return of the Principal.

@Sparkly - Thanks. That's my dilemma. I need to buy (as @AGuy says) at the right price. That also means I need to sell at the right price so we are comparing apple to apples. I just got Unga's report & it weakened my resolve to sell Unga! That said, as I learnt from KK, keep one's ear to the ground not next to the CEO or Chairman's mouth!

@Aguy - What price should I look at for Equity, KCB, BAT, EABL, Safaricom, Jubilee?
[I sold my Jubilee not coz they were not doing well but I though I could do better in other counters but I didn't. A poor decision. That lesson also plays into my dilemma.]

EABL. 150