hey wazuarians.. i've been trying to analyze at the best counters on the NSE over ten years (2020) to offer at least a possible 1000% return which means 100% return annualised...

these stocks have to be companies that have geared themselves well for exponential growth or are extremely undervalued...

wazuarians your thoughts and suggestions on your best picks will be welcome as i need them for comparative analysis...

@guru,

Thats too much to expect from the NSE.If it were the Nasdaq we could say its possible coz of the many new startups and innovations available.Opportunities like that dont exist here.The most you can expect is 20% annual growth.Many companies qualify eg.Cement stocks(with reservations coz of the changing market environment),some financial stocks like DTB,JUBILEE seem almost certain of maintaining 20% growth in the future which means you might be doubling your money after every 3.5 yrs.

Ben Graham advised against expecting more than average results,the term growth stocks is a misnomer in that the growth is usually already factored in the price.

Most of the stocks on the Nasdaq had no earnings and the ones which had earnings were ridiculously overpriced.The p/e of nasdaq was 100
*!!!!.But some stocks bought before the madness like Dell,Microsoft and several biotechs made investors super-rich.

The results in the last 8yrs can only be duplicated by a massive bull which will defy all fundamentals.In 2006 some stocks like ARM,BAMBURI had p/es of 60+.
Unless the NSE touches say 10000pts,results like those cannot be repeated since the massive undervaluations of companies in 2002 did not occur even in the bear of 2008.My 2 cents

@guru: Check you math again

If you get 100% return per year for ten years, your final value will be over 100,000% [one hundred thousand per cent]!!!!!!

Think about it, 100% return means doubling you investment; thus you are looking to double your money every year for ten years. You will end up with sh1,024 for every shilling invested. That's 100,023% ---- a lot more than 1,000%!!!!!!!!!

1,000% means you want to get ten shillings for every shilling invested. Is this what you mean?

If that is the case [and I must say the former is unrealistic, unless you want to go into drug peddling!!], then the stocks you are looking for should be expected to give you about 26% per year on average.

Looking at historical data, it turns out that you are not being too optimistic; after all the following did give over 1,000% between 2000 and 2010:

EA Cables - 1,900%
ARM - 1,800%
NBK - 1,200%

The question is: will they continue the trend for another decade?

I must add that in year 2000, I wouldn't have touched NBK with a ten-foot pole!!!! It was on the verge of collapse under the weight of politically-connected fellows who had refused to pay their loans.

@guru: When you talk about "annualised returns" over a period of ten years, you mean compounded returns! It's that simple.

Any way; My guess would be Mumias, KenGen, KPLC

Waa! ARM would have given you 4000 percent in 8 years?
TUPAC, I think that as long as the economy is on a growth path, banks will always be the first to benefit. The ''saturation'' can never occur unless other sectors of the economy reach 'saturation'. The banking industry 'feeds' of the other sectors of the economy. So, guru, you might want to add a few more banks to your list. I also noticed you had picked Kenya-RE. Sigh... I guess those were the days when you used to believe in it. Guess we can safely substitute it with Jubilee

I'll never speculate with any significant cash.. Its not worth it because there are still plenty of real bargains

@youcan't.... Check this out.. Kenya re is still trading at a lower price than i sold it the money i got from it 2 buy jubilee is already up 20%... So no regrets there...

Ladies and gentlemen,

A compunded return of 1000% over 5 - 10 years is actually the strategy of most foreign fund monagers (eg actis) investing in frontier markets bearing unforseen.
A 30% increase compounded over 10 years yield 1300 %.
So name them most blue chip counters in NSE can attain this.

KENGEN
KPLC
EQUITY
EABL
BAM
ARM
SAFCOM
NMG
KCB (Has done prev 10 yrs)
BBK
STANCHART
JUB