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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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hisah wrote:As long as gok has crazy bills to pay next year after those tbills and tbonds rocketed, the bulls will find it hard to float the market because of that pay day period. While hoping that another banking event doesn't pop up! Keep this in mind. gok will be trading expensive bills for cheap ones. that should be okay.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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mwekez@ji wrote:hisah wrote:As long as gok has crazy bills to pay next year after those tbills and tbonds rocketed, the bulls will find it hard to float the market because of that pay day period. While hoping that another banking event doesn't pop up! Keep this in mind. gok will be trading expensive bills for cheap ones. that should be okay. How will they bridge the looming tax revenue shortfall. Likely to hit 150b if Q1 experience is an indicator of collection performance. In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Angelica _ann wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:hisah wrote:As long as gok has crazy bills to pay next year after those tbills and tbonds rocketed, the bulls will find it hard to float the market because of that pay day period. While hoping that another banking event doesn't pop up! Keep this in mind. gok will be trading expensive bills for cheap ones. that should be okay. How will they bridge the looming tax revenue shortfall. Likely to hit 150b if Q1 experience is an indicator of collection performance. Q1 usually have low collections with higher collections being made as the year progresses
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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Hii bear inakaa kama ambayo haijaisha nguvu!!!! maybe next week tsunami rebound will hit many counters with accelerated %s each day. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Usual cartoonist gang have a look at what I've spotted on SPX 500 on this simple 7yr chart (monthly). Note that volume! Also spot that trend line retest after that sizable selloff in August. The next move will blow out the lights i.e. a huge selloff or a huge rally. Volatility will escalate to parabolic levels very quickly. Caution people. This move will be felt across the globe!  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mwekez@ji wrote:hisah wrote:As long as gok has crazy bills to pay next year after those tbills and tbonds rocketed, the bulls will find it hard to float the market because of that pay day period. While hoping that another banking event doesn't pop up! Keep this in mind. gok will be trading expensive bills for cheap ones. that should be okay. I'm very skeptical going by the current political affairs as well as next year the political campaigns start. During such periods fiscal discipline is not observed. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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mwekez@ji wrote:hisah wrote:As long as gok has crazy bills to pay next year after those tbills and tbonds rocketed, the bulls will find it hard to float the market because of that pay day period. While hoping that another banking event doesn't pop up! Keep this in mind. gok will be trading expensive bills for cheap ones. that should be okay. Not really the case. The expensive T-Bills have been issued and many go out for 12 months at 22%. The cheaper T-Bills are thanks to QE by CBK as a response to the collapse of Imperial Bank & the panic withdrawals from (good) Tier 2 & 3 banks. CBK is entering into Reverse Repos with many banks at the CBR rate to inject liquidity. This was a good move by PNN otherwise more banks could have had liquidity issues. http://www.businessdaily...6/-/5r3ttd/-/index.html
Ultimately, the answer lies in FISCAL DISCIPLINE. The new short-term (2-yr) USD 600mn facility will come back to bite us before we know it. And then the 5-yr T-Bond (issued in 2014) soon thereafter. I do not even know what the terms of the Chinese loans are. As @hisah says... elections do not make for fiscal discipline especially when the incumbent is running for re-election . The pain comes after the election. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Quote:Imperial Bank managers understated deposits by Sh38bn
Imperial Bank managers understated the lender’s deposits by Sh38 billion and squeezed its loan book to hide a massive fraud scheme that led to its closure last month, the Central Bank of Kenya said Tuesday.
Understating the size of its business also allowed the bank to operate with lower capital than it needed while keeping the regulators happy.
“We also discovered that Imperial Bank’s financial statements were not correct and were actually misleading. For instance, the deposits were understated by Sh38 billion and the lending by such order of magnitude, which was not shown in its accounts,” Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) governor Patrick Njoroge said during a hearing of the Senate’s Finance Committee.
linkFundamentalists rely so much on Financial Statements that businesses churn in order to take a position in the market. Now in a situation such as above where there is fraud in books, what do they do??! Imperial Bank floated a bond which was fully subscribed based on the said 'fundamentals' only to be presented with such scandal just at the time your money is locked in! Remember we said that in times of negative social mood people seek out scandals. Expect more to be revealed as the bear becomes more intense. Note that the scandals were perpetrated over several years when mood was still positive yet they were not revealed then. Elliott waves cut to the chase. You look for tradeable patterns and trade them. If there is no worthwhile wave count you don't bother. And by the way there is no way to tell which management team is 'good' versus 'bad'. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2011 Posts: 264 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:hisah wrote:As long as gok has crazy bills to pay next year after those tbills and tbonds rocketed, the bulls will find it hard to float the market because of that pay day period. While hoping that another banking event doesn't pop up! Keep this in mind. gok will be trading expensive bills for cheap ones. that should be okay. Not really the case. The expensive T-Bills have been issued and many go out for 12 months at 22%. The cheaper T-Bills are thanks to QE by CBK as a response to the collapse of Imperial Bank & the panic withdrawals from (good) Tier 2 & 3 banks. CBK is entering into Reverse Repos with many banks at the CBR rate to inject liquidity. This was a good move by PNN otherwise more banks could have had liquidity issues. http://www.businessdaily...6/-/5r3ttd/-/index.html
Ultimately, the answer lies in FISCAL DISCIPLINE. The new short-term (2-yr) USD 600mn facility will come back to bite us before we know it. And then the 5-yr T-Bond (issued in 2014) soon thereafter. I do not even know what the terms of the Chinese loans are. As @hisah says... elections do not make for fiscal discipline especially when the incumbent is running for re-election . The pain comes after the election. The Illumicorp. While this most likely is a fictional video, the concepts it lays are so real. 'Debt is a powerful tool in controlling the world' No wonder the IMF is pushing these loans down our throats. Kenya - IMF, IMF, IMF on the wall, who's the financially prettiest of them all? IMF - You are, Kenya, the most stable of them all. (but unlike in Snow White, the mirror lies)
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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In the short term, I think we are headed for a tug of war between the cbk and the banks. The sudden(manipulated) drop in the tbills and bonds is meant to cushion the government from the coming 2016 financial/debt storm. By affording the government some breathing space, treasury is able to source for cheap debt repayments funds in the domestic front hence the latest directive by cbk for banks to lower interest rates. Problem is with the economy in bad shape, the premium(k)-inclusive of credit risk-charged by banks over and above the KBRR is more likely to increase than reduce. By directing the banks to lower interest rates, the cbk is forcing them to expand their loan books and give out riskier credit with no corresponding return. This will in turn exercebate their NPL's, LLP's and various capital ratios. It will be foolhardy of them to comply. Knowing the drop in rates is temporary I don't expect banks to budge on interest rates. The cbk might be forced onto more desperate measures to reign in the banks. This should take a while to resolve itself and both can't have their way. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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lochaz-index wrote:In the short term, I think we are headed for a tug of war between the cbk and the banks. The sudden(manipulated) drop in the tbills and bonds is meant to cushion the government from the coming 2016 financial/debt storm.
By affording the government some breathing space, treasury is able to source for cheap debt repayments funds in the domestic front hence the latest directive by cbk for banks to lower interest rates.
Problem is with the economy in bad shape, the premium(k)-inclusive of credit risk-charged by banks over and above the KBRR is more likely to increase than reduce. By directing the banks to lower interest rates, the cbk is forcing them to expand their loan books and give out riskier credit with no corresponding return. This will in turn exercebate their NPL's, LLP's and various capital ratios. It will be foolhardy of them to comply.
Knowing the drop in rates is temporary I don't expect banks to budge on interest rates. The cbk might be forced onto more desperate measures to reign in the banks.
This should take a while to resolve itself and both can't have their way. Very perceptive and the same discussion I was having yesterday. The banks have increased their "K" to catch up to the high T-Bill rates and are unlikely to reduce the "K" any time soon. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote: Safaricom Share Price. Since Safaricom hit a high of 17.90 on 6th May, 2015, it fell in a leading diagonal structure making wave 'A'. We are currently in a wave 'B' correction which should end at about the 16/- level. Thereafter expect Safcom to drop below 10/-. Safaricom finally hit the 16/- level. I expect from here a massive sell-off. Bulls have chance only if the stock rises above 17.90/-. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:Safaricom Share Price. Since Safaricom hit a high of 17.90 on 6th May, 2015, it fell in a leading diagonal structure making wave 'A'. We are currently in a wave 'B' correction which should end at about the 16/- level. Thereafter expect Safcom to drop below 10/-. Safaricom finally hit the 16/- level. I expect from here a massive sell-off. Bulls have chance only if the stock rises above 17.90/-. This is the prophecy which will determine whether I will believe in waves or I will ignore them forever "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:Safaricom Share Price. Since Safaricom hit a high of 17.90 on 6th May, 2015, it fell in a leading diagonal structure making wave 'A'. We are currently in a wave 'B' correction which should end at about the 16/- level. Thereafter expect Safcom to drop below 10/-. Safaricom finally hit the 16/- level. I expect from here a massive sell-off. Bulls have chance only if the stock rises above 17.90/-. mnandii wrote:As far as most wazuans can remember I have maintained that the KES should strengthen against the USD in the foreseable future. In fact my near term target is 82 against the USD as per chart below:  It is good that the daily chart of the pair agrees with this analysis as below:  This chart shows that the pair is falling impulsively (i.e KES is strengthening against the USD). In the interim I expect wave [ iv ] to complete at about 103.50s before a resumption of the fall towards and slightly below 100. This outlook can only be set aside if the pair manages to rise above 106.80 level. For me these two go hand in hand. If interest rates rise (or if CB borrows externally aka syndicated loan) then this all lines up.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Crude oil sharp plunge ahead as $40 handle snaps on selling pressure! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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hisah wrote:Crude oil sharp plunge ahead as $40 handle snaps on selling pressure! and lots of "strong sell" recos
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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And is everyone else strongly selling to break the sell record? Or am selling under the strong selling presure. ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:In the short term, I think we are headed for a tug of war between the cbk and the banks. The sudden(manipulated) drop in the tbills and bonds is meant to cushion the government from the coming 2016 financial/debt storm.
By affording the government some breathing space, treasury is able to source for cheap debt repayments funds in the domestic front hence the latest directive by cbk for banks to lower interest rates.
Problem is with the economy in bad shape, the premium(k)-inclusive of credit risk-charged by banks over and above the KBRR is more likely to increase than reduce. By directing the banks to lower interest rates, the cbk is forcing them to expand their loan books and give out riskier credit with no corresponding return. This will in turn exercebate their NPL's, LLP's and various capital ratios. It will be foolhardy of them to comply.
Knowing the drop in rates is temporary I don't expect banks to budge on interest rates. The cbk might be forced onto more desperate measures to reign in the banks.
This should take a while to resolve itself and both can't have their way. Very perceptive and the same discussion I was having yesterday. The banks have increased their "K" to catch up to the high T-Bill rates and are unlikely to reduce the "K" any time soon. @Loach + VVS...what can CBK do about it? possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/18/2011 Posts: 448
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Interesting to note 6 counters have over 80% selling by foreigners (DTK, EAGD,Kengen,KK,KPLC,KQ) while only two have over 80% buying (Olympia, Crown Berger) . Most of the buying is local,guess we have more faith in our markets.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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Would you eat the food if the cook refused to taste it
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