@guru267. I aggree with your ascertion that property prices are being fueled by Kenyans in the Diaspora and foreigners. It is that which characterises a bull market.
Booms and busts are brought about by the inherent human nature to speculate. In a free economy, capital will seek to profit in either of the five asset classes: stocks, debt, technology, commodities and real-estate. A concentration of capital in any one sector leads to a boom cycle whilst a dissipation of capital results in a bust. Rarely do two asset classes boom at the same time as was the case in Japan's real-estate and stock market booms of the late '80s.
"That the free enterprise economy is given to recurrent episodes of speculation will be agreed. These — great events and small, involving bank notes, securities, real estate, art and other assets or objects — are, over the years and centuries, part of history. What has not been sufficiently analyzed are the features common to these episodes, the things that signal their certain return, and have thus the considerable practical value of aiding understanding and prediction.
Regulation and more orthodox economic knowledge are not what protect the individual and the financial institution when euphoria returns, leading on as it does to wonder at the increase in values and wealth, to the rush to participate that drives up prices, and to the eventual crash and its sullen and painful aftermath. There is protection only in a clear perception of the characteristics common to these flights into what must conservatively be described as mass insanity. Only then is the investor warned and saved."
A Short History of Financial Euphoria (1990) by J.K. Galbraith
All the reasons you've given for a 10 - 15 year appreciation are correct. But even then, the market at some point may choose to cool over a 3 - 5 year period as in the case of South Africa. The Rainbow nation had the best performing real-estate market in the world from 1995 to 2007. It is a developing market whose prices have corrected since then.
On the Hyman Minsky's seven stages of a bubble, our real estate is transitioning from Stage 3 to Stage 4.
Read more:
http://www.notesbit.com/...9s-seven-bubble-stages/