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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/16/2009 Posts: 994
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iris wrote:Boris Boyka wrote:sl8r wrote:enyands wrote:mnandii wrote:With the bear market underway it is time we did some Socionomic forecasts. This exercise may appear frivolous but it shows the utility of The Wave Principle and Socionomics. The character of social events can be predicted and this may mean the difference between life and death; economic well-being and financial ruin.
THE EXPECTED CHARACTER OF EVENTS IN WAZUA IN THE ENSUING BEAR MARKET:
1. Increasingly many wazuans will be 'usered'.
2. Wazuans will increasingly attack each other viciously in posts.
3. Lady wazuans are more likely to start/comment on threads
4. Technical analysts whose posts are bearish will face increasing attacks.
5. In the political sections distinct camps will emerge with sharply divided ideologies esp. Pro jubilee Vs Opposition.
6. Many wazuans will become deeply religious.
7. admin will have a difficult time moderating discussions.
8. Increasing number of wazuans will start/increase consumption of alcoholic beverages.
9. The number of wazuans visiting coffee shops ( Java House, Dormans etc) will reduce.
10. Several vocal commentators on stocks will become silent or increasingly and openly hostile.
11. Obscenities in posts will increase.
12. Small differences of opinion will escalate.
13. The popularity of violent sports e.g. football and boxing will increase.
14. Many more wazuans will regard the government as being incompetent.
15. Discussions of gossip/scandals will increase.
16. Increasing number of wazuans will become superstitious. What does 'usered' mean?  since 2010 when you joined this institution did you defer your studies at The University of Wazua? @Boris, how about just answering the question instead of siasa?  [quote=iris]@Mnandii, kindly interpret "usered" for me. I have seen it on Wazua several times but not been able to get meaning from context. Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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The gap in revenues collected http://www.businessdaily.../-/1595jc9/-/index.html as it is the revenue collection target was well short of budget. Now this shortfall of 28B can be added to the deficit. Things are not good.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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For the quarter, so if they experience that through out the fiscal year, the deficit will be bigger. He was also talking like there is no hope on bridging the gap. In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/16/2009 Posts: 994
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Angelica _ann wrote:For the quarter, so if they experience that through out the fiscal year, the deficit will be bigger. He was also talking like there is no hope on bridging the gap. Those profits warnings had to show up in lower revenues sooner than later. Since the government has a higher appetite to spend and wants to keep borrowing, they can forget meeting those ambitious targets they have been putting for Njiraini. Do we need to pay McKinsey to tell us we lose revenues via collusion with KRA officials? KRA wrote:The Treasury has hired international consultants, Mckinsey, to help it seal loopholes in tax administration it believes are denying the Exchequer billions of shillings every month. Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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Good morning Ann John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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Gatheuzi wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:For the quarter, so if they experience that through out the fiscal year, the deficit will be bigger. He was also talking like there is no hope on bridging the gap. Those profits warnings had to show up in lower revenues sooner than later. Since the government has a higher appetite to spend and wants to keep borrowing, they can forget meeting those ambitious targets they have been putting for Njiraini. Do we need to pay McKinsey to tell us we lose revenues via collusion with KRA officials? KRA wrote:The Treasury has hired international consultants, Mckinsey, to help it seal loopholes in tax administration it believes are denying the Exchequer billions of shillings every month. McKinsey having a field day of late. Being hired left, right and center!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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snipermnoma wrote:Gatheuzi wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:For the quarter, so if they experience that through out the fiscal year, the deficit will be bigger. He was also talking like there is no hope on bridging the gap. Those profits warnings had to show up in lower revenues sooner than later. Since the government has a higher appetite to spend and wants to keep borrowing, they can forget meeting those ambitious targets they have been putting for Njiraini. Do we need to pay McKinsey to tell us we lose revenues via collusion with KRA officials? KRA wrote:The Treasury has hired international consultants, Mckinsey, to help it seal loopholes in tax administration it believes are denying the Exchequer billions of shillings every month. McKinsey having a field day of late. Being hired left, right and center! While creating net outflows in the process In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/15/2013 Posts: 1,977 Location: Here
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Spikes wrote:Good morning Angelica Ann The wave direction. Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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Tusaide Selikali jameni.
You don't need McKinsey to tell you that since most of these business are conduits and they the ones who steal the money from the Gova they don't pay taxes.
In other words don't expect taxes to be paid from Stolen money.
Will McKinsey figure this out and is it worth being paid to discover what is in the open
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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Gatheuzi wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:For the quarter, so if they experience that through out the fiscal year, the deficit will be bigger. He was also talking like there is no hope on bridging the gap. Those profits warnings had to show up in lower revenues sooner than later. Since the government has a higher appetite to spend and wants to keep borrowing, they can forget meeting those ambitious targets they have been putting for Njiraini. Do we need to pay McKinsey to tell us we lose revenues via collusion with KRA officials? KRA wrote:The Treasury has hired international consultants, Mckinsey, to help it seal loopholes in tax administration it believes are denying the Exchequer billions of shillings every month. KRA isn't the problem here. How about the government sealing loopholes that cost tax payers over 300B/year before demanding KRA to collect more money.
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Rank: User Joined: 1/20/2014 Posts: 3,528
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whiteowl wrote:Gatheuzi wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:For the quarter, so if they experience that through out the fiscal year, the deficit will be bigger. He was also talking like there is no hope on bridging the gap. Those profits warnings had to show up in lower revenues sooner than later. Since the government has a higher appetite to spend and wants to keep borrowing, they can forget meeting those ambitious targets they have been putting for Njiraini. Do we need to pay McKinsey to tell us we lose revenues via collusion with KRA officials? KRA wrote:The Treasury has hired international consultants, Mckinsey, to help it seal loopholes in tax administration it believes are denying the Exchequer billions of shillings every month. KRA isn't the problem here. How about the government sealing loopholes that cost tax payers over 300B/year before demanding KRA to collect more money. Jubilee saw Kibaki gava increase tax collection by expanding the economy and thought that it is an easy task and is the norm. shock on them. You must develop and grow the economy to generate revenue!!! Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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Othelo wrote:whiteowl wrote:Gatheuzi wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:For the quarter, so if they experience that through out the fiscal year, the deficit will be bigger. He was also talking like there is no hope on bridging the gap. Those profits warnings had to show up in lower revenues sooner than later. Since the government has a higher appetite to spend and wants to keep borrowing, they can forget meeting those ambitious targets they have been putting for Njiraini. Do we need to pay McKinsey to tell us we lose revenues via collusion with KRA officials? KRA wrote:The Treasury has hired international consultants, Mckinsey, to help it seal loopholes in tax administration it believes are denying the Exchequer billions of shillings every month. KRA isn't the problem here. How about the government sealing loopholes that cost tax payers over 300B/year before demanding KRA to collect more money. Jubilee saw Kibaki gava increase tax collection by expanding the economy and thought that it is an easy task and is the norm. shock on them. You must develop and grow the economy to generate revenue!!! if Duale is one economist what do u expect? "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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NSE20 closes for the month of October at 3868. 6.86% down from the open at 4153. In October NSE20 bulls were overpowered by bearish momentum and lost the 4000 psychological handle. That was one nasty support break. The market is quite oversold and a bounce is likely in November. However overheads resistance is now packed from 4000 all the way to 4500. For bulls to reclaim their pod 4900 - 5000 resistance level has to be broken down with a bang. Their is likelihood to test the 2011 lows. I'd prefer this scenario since the bounce from that level will have more legs for a proper layering of a floor to force a double bottom. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 903 Location: sky
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http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Kenya-among-top-10-states-exposed-portfolio-flows-risks--IMF/-/539552/2935106/-/item/0/-/11njms9z/-/index.htmlseems the worst is yet to come "..The IMF warns that the portfolio flows come at the cost of sudden outflows, such as is expected when interest rates in the US rise in coming weeks. .." There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 903 Location: sky
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/29/us-usa-fed-idUSKCN0SM0BJ20151029"..nvestors quickly placed bets reflecting a higher chance the U.S. central bank will raise rates in December, with futures contracts implying a 43 percent possibility compared to 34 percent prior to the statement. "The Fed is seriously considering a December rate hike," said Harm Bandholz, an economist at UniCredit in New York..." There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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The only window left this year for speculators is November bulls. CBK and Treasury are preparing the market for soft landing following monetary easing set to bring interest rates down. Kenyan Monetary and Fiscal policy makers are realigning economic tools to counter Fed rate hike most likely December. Of course Fed action will set off a financial earthquake a cross emerging markets melting down weak currencies triggering new normal inflation. After short bulls the NSE will be left dangling in capital flight panic if US dollar gets support from Fed rate hike. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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The Fed's hike of 0.25% is a known known. It's about when not if. A 0.25% hike isn't devastating. In Kenya, we hike by 2% like it's nothing! We moved from 9% to 22% in months for 91 day T-Bills. Very few will move their 'hot money' from Kenya to the US for a 0.25% increase in USD rates. The countries that will see a movement of significant funds are those with low rates e.g. Japan, UK, EU, etc... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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VituVingiSana wrote:The Fed's hike of 0.25% is a known known. It's about when not if. A 0.25% hike isn't devastating. In Kenya, we hike by 2% like it's nothing! We moved from 9% to 22% in months for 91 day T-Bills.
Very few will move their 'hot money' from Kenya to the US for a 0.25% increase in USD rates. The countries that will see a movement of significant funds are those with low rates e.g. Japan, UK, EU, etc... And what do you think will happen to the Kshs and inflation with an increased worldwide demand for the US dollar?
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 5/22/2014 Posts: 78
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VituVingiSana wrote:The Fed's hike of 0.25% is a known known. It's about when not if. A 0.25% hike isn't devastating. In Kenya, we hike by 2% like it's nothing! We moved from 9% to 22% in months for 91 day T-Bills.
Very few will move their 'hot money' from Kenya to the US for a 0.25% increase in USD rates. The countries that will see a movement of significant funds are those with low rates e.g. Japan, UK, EU, etc... @vvs, I am not an economist but I think that you have over-simplified the effect of federal rates rise. Fed rate is the equivalent of our CBK rate, banks and other lending institutions can raise rates further based on this and other factors. (Though not in the haphazard way that our banks have done of late; read StanChart and Co.) The near-zero Fed rates were introduced to counter the ravages of the GFC. The consensus is that Dollar investors have had lots of easy cash over the last few years. This is the money that they would typically invest in high return ventures like KE NSE and Gov't securities. The fear is the knock-on effect this would have both mathematically and mood-wise. I'm thinking of less cash to put in our already ailing NSE. My two cents...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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VituVingiSana wrote:The Fed's hike of 0.25% is a known known. It's about when not if. A 0.25% hike isn't devastating. In Kenya, we hike by 2% like it's nothing! We moved from 9% to 22% in months for 91 day T-Bills.
Very few will move their 'hot money' from Kenya to the US for a 0.25% increase in USD rates. The countries that will see a movement of significant funds are those with low rates e.g. Japan, UK, EU, etc... Fed rate hike will blow the junk bond market fuse. Liquidity will disappear swiftly in the process. This is the bidless event I expect in 2016. Nobody will be willing to touch long end paper thus forcing short end yields to spike. In a liquidity vacuum all markets will likely deflate. But my view is since the cycle end will be a bond bubble burst, equities will benefit after the sizable panic selloff. Bond portfolio baskets will blow up for good paying cts on the dollar for those few lucky ones that don't get vapourized!$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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