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Kenya Airways...why ignore..
obiero
#2481 Posted : Tuesday, October 27, 2015 5:43:09 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,317
Location: nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
enyands wrote:
Spikes wrote:
YES! Just waiting patiently for the referee to blow the plunge whistle. More than 50% drop in current price is a gracious buy....Speculators mpo!

Tuko nkankari sana. I'm your fellow speculator . Hit me when the speculation season for this stock is officially starting


Speculating in a bear market? Mutachomeka you wont believe...prices go down for what seems like forever

In any relationship, there is a start and an end.. On KQ, due to personal reasons, I am bound to take a bow at a portfolio loss of KES 207,000 basing on exit target price of KES 5.50. This will happen upon release of full year results, but I will be back as I believe in the recovery plan, sincerely, deeply, fully..
COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
hisah
#2482 Posted : Tuesday, October 27, 2015 6:06:33 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
obiero wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
enyands wrote:
Spikes wrote:
YES! Just waiting patiently for the referee to blow the plunge whistle. More than 50% drop in current price is a gracious buy....Speculators mpo!

Tuko nkankari sana. I'm your fellow speculator . Hit me when the speculation season for this stock is officially starting


Speculating in a bear market? Mutachomeka you wont believe...prices go down for what seems like forever

In any relationship, there is a start and an end.. On KQ, due to personal reasons, I am bound to take a bow at a portfolio loss of KES 207,000 basing on exit target price of KES 5.50. This will happen upon release of full year results, but I will be back as I believe in the recovery plan, sincerely, deeply, fully..

Finally @obiero smile Not to worry outside here you'll find pretty flowers and will quickly forget the bitter KQ divorce.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
murchr
#2483 Posted : Tuesday, October 27, 2015 6:10:07 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Never get married to a stock. Madam guru advised here when others fell hard with KK. Unfortunately she got married to HAFR
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
obiero
#2484 Posted : Tuesday, October 27, 2015 6:10:09 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,317
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
obiero wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
enyands wrote:
Spikes wrote:
YES! Just waiting patiently for the referee to blow the plunge whistle. More than 50% drop in current price is a gracious buy....Speculators mpo!

Tuko nkankari sana. I'm your fellow speculator . Hit me when the speculation season for this stock is officially starting


Speculating in a bear market? Mutachomeka you wont believe...prices go down for what seems like forever

In any relationship, there is a start and an end.. On KQ, due to personal reasons, I am bound to take a bow at a portfolio loss of KES 207,000 basing on exit target price of KES 5.50. This will happen upon release of full year results, but I will be back as I believe in the recovery plan, sincerely, deeply, fully..

Finally @obiero smile Not to worry outside here you'll find pretty flowers and will quickly forget the bitter KQ divorce.

@hisah. Maybe it shall be so. In life, we live on plans and hope for their success. By the way, I meant half year and not full year. In two weeks time, I shall exit the cockpit for a second or two.. :)
COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
obiero
#2485 Posted : Tuesday, October 27, 2015 6:12:24 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,317
Location: nairobi
murchr wrote:
Never get married to a stock. Madam guru advised here when others fell hard with KK.

Why mention guru on such a solemn topic. Please reach her on the HAFR thread. This is the humble proposal of a lion that has been rained on, slightly.. :)
Total KQ holding 63,800
Average buy price KES 8.6
Todays worth, KES 5.35 per share
Initial outlay KES 548,680
Current takehome KES 341,000
37% equity downturn at KES 207,000
COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
Impunity
#2486 Posted : Tuesday, October 27, 2015 6:34:44 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,331
Location: Masada
^^^^@obiero,

I would advice you not exit during the current bear, hold on coz I see the share touching 8-9 bob within a year or so, this will be due to imoproved result announcement in the coming year...they will be losses by improvements.
Plus the tourism sector is recovering,Lufthansa just started pouring in Germans, some will be shuttled across Africa by KQ,plus this was the lowest point for KQ, now the only left direction is upwards.
My many cents advice.
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

Boris Boyka
#2487 Posted : Tuesday, October 27, 2015 7:39:36 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
Impunity wrote:
^^^^@obiero,

I would advice you not exit during the current bear, hold on coz I see the share touching 8-9 bob within a year or so, this will be due to imoproved result announcement in the coming year...they will be losses by improvements.
Plus the tourism sector is recovering,Lufthansa just started pouring in Germans, some will be shuttled across Africa by KQ,plus this was the lowest point for KQ, now the only left direction is upwards.
My many cents advice.

If he gives the proceeds to Sirkal, in that 1yr he'll have a sure 20% back then see where best to jump and make another kill.Ngunze said recovery is minimum 18 months.
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
obiero
#2488 Posted : Tuesday, October 27, 2015 7:43:09 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,317
Location: nairobi
Impunity wrote:
^^^^@obiero,

I would advice you not exit during the current bear, hold on coz I see the share touching 8-9 bob within a year or so, this will be due to imoproved result announcement in the coming year...they will be losses by improvements.
Plus the tourism sector is recovering,Lufthansa just started pouring in Germans, some will be shuttled across Africa by KQ,plus this was the lowest point for KQ, now the only left direction is upwards.
My many cents advice.

@impunity thanks for the wise counsel. However, the goose/mbuzi is cooked.. There is no turning back for me due a pressing financial matter. I remain acutely aware that the fundamentals of this firm have always been strong, but were faced with a weak management and terrible luck on the macroeconomic front in the past 24 months. I do not recommend a sell for anyone else as at now.. On H1 results release date I shall issue a buy/hold/sell recommendation for my beloved wazua republic
COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
snipermnoma
#2489 Posted : Wednesday, October 28, 2015 4:48:40 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
obiero wrote:
hisah wrote:
obiero wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
enyands wrote:
Spikes wrote:
YES! Just waiting patiently for the referee to blow the plunge whistle. More than 50% drop in current price is a gracious buy....Speculators mpo!

Tuko nkankari sana. I'm your fellow speculator . Hit me when the speculation season for this stock is officially starting


Speculating in a bear market? Mutachomeka you wont believe...prices go down for what seems like forever

In any relationship, there is a start and an end.. On KQ, due to personal reasons, I am bound to take a bow at a portfolio loss of KES 207,000 basing on exit target price of KES 5.50. This will happen upon release of full year results, but I will be back as I believe in the recovery plan, sincerely, deeply, fully..

Finally @obiero smile Not to worry outside here you'll find pretty flowers and will quickly forget the bitter KQ divorce.

@hisah. Maybe it shall be so. In life, we live on plans and hope for their success. By the way, I meant half year and not full year. In two weeks time, I shall exit the cockpit for a second or two.. :)


Having been a strong advocate, this must have been a tough decision for @obiero. All the best in our plans. One thing I like is you have constantly been open on your moves.
sparkly
#2490 Posted : Wednesday, October 28, 2015 6:18:16 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
snipermnoma wrote:
obiero wrote:
hisah wrote:
obiero wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
enyands wrote:
Spikes wrote:
YES! Just waiting patiently for the referee to blow the plunge whistle. More than 50% drop in current price is a gracious buy....Speculators mpo!

Tuko nkankari sana. I'm your fellow speculator . Hit me when the speculation season for this stock is officially starting


Speculating in a bear market? Mutachomeka you wont believe...prices go down for what seems like forever

In any relationship, there is a start and an end.. On KQ, due to personal reasons, I am bound to take a bow at a portfolio loss of KES 207,000 basing on exit target price of KES 5.50. This will happen upon release of full year results, but I will be back as I believe in the recovery plan, sincerely, deeply, fully..

Finally @obiero smile Not to worry outside here you'll find pretty flowers and will quickly forget the bitter KQ divorce.

@hisah. Maybe it shall be so. In life, we live on plans and hope for their success. By the way, I meant half year and not full year. In two weeks time, I shall exit the cockpit for a second or two.. :)


Having been a strong advocate, this must have been a tough decision for @obiero. All the best in our plans. One thing I like is you have constantly been open on your moves.


I am sad that @Obiero is divorcing KQ and sadder that he is taking a substantial loss.

Anyway all the best @Obiero and remember the lessons learnt:

1. First rule of an investor is not to lose money. Consider the downside and have a margin of safety. My insurance is an assured dividend even when stock is down.
2. Cut your losses. When speculating, know when to exit a losing position before it is too late.
3. Take control of your emotions. stocks will go up, stocks will go down. Emotions will tell you to buy when stocks are up and sell when down. DO the opposite.
4. Understand your investment. You are buying part of a company so take time to understand its business.
5. Last but not least airlines are not good investments. They make money for everyone else apart from the shareholders. Keep away.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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