Rank: Elder Joined: 2/7/2007 Posts: 11,935 Location: Nairobi
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@Kaigangio, You started well and finished off miserably.Power goes to grid for consumption.That makes it two goats for being silly.... @Obi, Well answered. @General, Nzoia would have been an ideal acquistion but it has a debt in excess of 26 B.... @Mukiha, Power plant initial capital is a mere 2.2B.In my view the 120M from credit carbon is more than the plant can take in maintenance cost. annually. God gives,mugikuyu takes. Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/27/2007 Posts: 2,768
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@ kanobi, I believe my calculations are consistent with the normal power generation computation procedures. The only difference is that I have annualised the figures for comaparison purposes. @ guka I did not mention anywhere something to the effect that this power is being stored. i will forgive you for believing that it is 'MW' that go to the Transmission Lines and not the current flowing into the conductors in the transmission line under a distinct voltage and power factor......kubafu bure. hakuna goat!! NEVER TALK OF A RHINO IF THERE IS NO TREE NEAREBY - ZULU PROVERB ...besides, the presence of a safe alone does not signify that there is money inside...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/27/2008 Posts: 4,114
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@Kaigangio; Pole Ndugu....they have really blasted you....but I won't: Your figures are all correct but they are based on one major false assumption: That ALL the crushed cane is burnt to generate steam. That's not the case...most of it is just 'thrown away' because the boilers don't need it. Your calculation is therefore the POTENTIAL power output. @Njung'e: The US$35m loan at 2.25%pa over ten years gives around sh300m in re-payments per year....so my guesstimate of about sh500m in 'operating' costs was just about right......but now you deduct the sh120m for carbon credits...and my point is enhanced.... ....sasa huyu broker wangu yuko wapi? Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/3/2006 Posts: 553
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@Njunge,any chance someone will feel 'sufficiently philanthropic' The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie. The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/7/2007 Posts: 11,935 Location: Nairobi
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@Kaigangio, 1 Ton= 100Kwh 350 Tonnes = 350Tonnes X100 Kwh = 35,000 Kw every hour = 35MW every hour..... Daily = 24 X 35 =576 Mw daily Annually = 576Mw x 300 working days =172,800 Mw =172.8 GW.... @Mukiha, FYI.....No bagasse goes to waste.In an ideal Cogen plant,excess bagasse is stored for a rainny day (Contingent).This helps the plant attain the requited Power plant time efficiency of (PPTE) which would dratically come down if every time the mills stop,the power planrt stops too. @General, Hmmmmm......26 B is a huge amount.Unless the gova is willing to write it off. God gives,mugikuyu takes. Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/23/2008 Posts: 3,017
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@Kaigangio The production of electricity is not annualised,its measured in constant flow. Hence in this case we say Mumias can supply 35MW per annum. (Thats what I meant by you cant store it) Using your example,a nuclear power plant may give 1,000MW per hour in constant flow thoughout the year, hence the output will be 1000x24x365 = 8,760,000 MW,now compare that to MsC I hope that is now helpful. I guess if you can't win with facts,you can always pen bile-laced,xenophobic rants to distract everyone. "The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/12/2008 Posts: 74
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@virji and Mukiha i am boarding this bus with you. I can see the demand is far much higher than the supply today,praying that this pushes the price northwards. Boarded it when it was 12.50,and i now have a good reason to average them.
Ama m i celebrating too early?
Jesus Loves me this I know,for the bible tells me so!
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/3/2006 Posts: 553
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@Njunge,crossing my fingers,toes,etc. Whats exciting is the changaa.. The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie. The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/27/2007 Posts: 2,768
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@ kanobi, from the basics,power is the amount of work done (in joules) in a given period of time. the amount of work done in a system can be summed up to whichever period of time that one desires. if you divide this work done by the amount of time (seconds) under consideration then you will have your average power. in power generation stations,please note that as long as the water is 'doing work' turning those hydro turbines,or the steam is doing work turning those steam turbines etc,whether the electrical energy is being used by the end user or not,power is still being produced at the station NEVER TALK OF A RHINO IF THERE IS NO TREE NEAREBY - ZULU PROVERB ...besides, the presence of a safe alone does not signify that there is money inside...
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/23/2007 Posts: 67
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@ALL
Why I am pessimistic about MSC Turnaround Strategy.
Carbon Credits
Carbon Credits are Basically HOBBIES and part of 'The Green' Initiative that is in Vogue in The Global Corporate Circles. In Monetary Terms,Revenue earned from sale of Carbon Credits are Immaterial and their Contribution to the ProfitDownline is a Mere Token.
Power Generation
This is still on PILOT Phase and Returns are Not worth any Celebration..25 Mw is Peanut in Industrial Terms..and so are the profits from that area.There is no Guarantee of Selling all the Power Generated and Kengen is also intending to Produce more and KPLC would 1st Exhaust Kengen's Power b4 going to other Power Producers coz of the SISTERLY Relationship.
Price Per Ton
MSC has commited to increase the Price of 1ton of Raw Sugar from ksh.2,500 to kshs.2,560. That means they are going to incur ALOT in the Cost of Raw materials which will not be easily transfferable to the Consumer espeacially when many Kenyans can Take 'NDUBIA' (Sugar-Free) Tea.
Shifta/ Pastoralist in TANA Delta
Tana Sugar Project remains a Pipe-Dream as Locals borrow a leaf from Kibera and Start Uprooting Cane.
Point is,the Factors that Erode Revenues OUTWEIGH the Gains.
M'c Kende Siafu !
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/27/2008 Posts: 4,114
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@Kaigangio,@ kanobi; The installed capacity is 35MW...full-stop! Not 35MW per hour,or per year!! Electricity is sold in kWh. 35MW is 35,000kW Run the generator for one hour and you have supplied 35,000kWh of ENERGY Run it for a year (non-stop) and you have supplied 365days x 24hours/day x 35,000Kwh = 306,600,000kWh of ENERGY. MSC has committed to 85% availability,meaning 85% of this theoretical maximum = 260,610,000kWh of ENERGY KPLC has committed to pay US$0.06 per kWh = sh2.5 per kWh This gives sh625m pa Finally,KPLC buys power by load-sharing...giving preference to the cheapest sources (hydro,geothermo,sugar). We have a 15% excess supply . Thus best that MAC can look forward to is 85% of sh625m = sh530m Knock off the sh300m finance cost and you are left with sh230m...or just 10cts in additional EPS Not so enticing now!!! ==== Amazing how the picture changes when you do the figures accurately Behind the gardens...Behind the wall...Under the tree (Including: Red...Dark Blue...Yellow) Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/11/2007 Posts: 1,680 Location: nairobi
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this is one thread i want to print and stick it up my bedroom walls..but 1st..whatever is being written here..shule ni wapi?
muthomi mugi aiikagia maitho kabere...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/7/2007 Posts: 11,935 Location: Nairobi
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@Eddie, Carbon credit: Will earn 120M every year.There are many companies that are listed and never made that kind of money.Let's say,if it's a hobby,it's a rich hobby. Power: It's not a pilot project.It's rolling and 25 MW is minimum on-peak export .The actual off peak can go as high as 34Mw.Put that on pen at 6 US cents and let's see what you come up with. Cane price: 2560 is low compared to what other smaller and less efficient plants like West Kenya are paying (2850).To my best of knowledge,West Kenya is still up and making profit. God gives,mugikuyu takes. Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/3/2006 Posts: 553
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Eti pilot project.. The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie. The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/5/2007 Posts: 91
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@mukiha
perfect explanation...only that again the conversion of 6 US cents to Kshs comes to Ksh 4.80 per KWH...confirming your earlier Ksh 929m pa revenue guesstimate...looks appealing once again?...before adding the methane reduction credits of Ksh 120m pa...
Playing the stock market without insider info...is like buying a cow in the moonlight.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/27/2008 Posts: 4,114
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Thanks @Hi-Lo; That's what happens when you mix work with SK contributions....now I have to check my work and see whether I made similar mistakes! Sh4.8 compared to KenGen's hydro at the disputed sh3.20 means that MSC's power will only be called in during peak power demand hours....meaning that they will be feeding the mains only,say,50% of the time...and takes us back to sh500m pa Argh!! Lets stop guessing and wait for the June 30th actual results! Behind the gardens...Behind the wall...Under the tree (Including: Red...Dark Blue...Yellow) Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/23/2008 Posts: 3,017
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I don't understand the sceptiscm,heres my workings Electricity - Sh. 1,000,000,000 Ethanol - Sh. 670,000,000 Carbon credits Sh. 120,000,000 Total added revenues Sh. 1,790,000,000 No increase in the cost of cane as same cane is being used (60/2500 <1%),same staff and management structure. Additional capital costs and overheads I would say 35-40% = 716,000,000 Giving you added profit of Sh. 1,000,000,000. Howz that for some good investment I guess if you can't win with facts,you can always pen bile-laced,xenophobic rants to distract everyone. "The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/7/2007 Posts: 11,935 Location: Nairobi
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@Mukiha, The impact of this revenues may not be felt on the second half of the current financial year......Let's wait til the end of the first half of the next financial year.That will give us a clear picture of what to expect from the power plant..............i also beg to disagree on when and how they will be exporting.......My understanging is that MSC has the entire horizon to themselves and using the same line,they can import when times are hard.......i give the topic a break for now. @Obi, You've put it in the simplest language.I hope Mlefu is no longer seeing stars.How about an extra stream from their state of the art water treatment plan which will be idle most of the time given that the power plant relies on it's own condensate from the turbines most of the time?..........Or sale of Potash from the units's furnace??.......watch this space. God gives,mugikuyu takes. Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/27/2008 Posts: 4,114
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@Obi 1 Kanobi; Agreed,any additional income stream is welcome! Now,a different matter: Compare 2008 to 2007 figures. 2007 GP = 3.6b 2008 GP = 4.3b Increase = 19% 2007 PBT = 1.9b 2008 PBT = 1.6b Decrese = 17% GP increases but PBT decreases...makes you go Hmmmm!! Behind the gardens...Behind the wall...Under the tree (Including: Red...Dark Blue...Yellow) Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/7/2006 Posts: 48
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So is mumias a good buy at 4.3sh?
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