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KQ all the way to the World Cup!
VituVingiSana
#21 Posted : Wednesday, March 17, 2010 12:13:56 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,137
Location: Nairobi
@pierce @2012
And it is a 1-time boost for ScanGroup... that is all... Otherwise I like ScanGroup just not at 28

KQ will benefit from WC2010 but it is the long-term growth that excites me if they can get more planes!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
2012
#22 Posted : Wednesday, March 17, 2010 12:53:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
@pierce @2012
And it is a 1-time boost for ScanGroup... that is all... Otherwise I like ScanGroup just not at 28

KQ will benefit from WC2010 but it is the long-term growth that excites me if they can get more planes!


@vvs I know you have a strong bias towards KQ but remember scangroup does KQ ads and media too...

BBI will solve it
:)
2012
#23 Posted : Wednesday, March 17, 2010 1:56:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
Pierce wrote:
@2012,do you think the monies to be made/benefits to accrue to ScanGroup are already factored in the current price of Kshs28?

Also how big a region are we looking at here?


I believe scangroup will announce some pretty decent results in April which I believe will factor in the 28/-. But the world cup, the increase in advertising budgets by companies and their new acquisitions will make it very interesting.

BBI will solve it
:)
VituVingiSana
#24 Posted : Wednesday, March 17, 2010 2:16:21 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,137
Location: Nairobi
@2012 - Oh, I like ScanGroup. I have met the management. Smart, smart, smart...

All I am saying is that I prefer it at 20 not 28...

I had KQ as a strong buy (which u know) at 20,25,30,35,40... I still like it but not as much as when it was much lower...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
MaichBlack
#25 Posted : Wednesday, March 17, 2010 2:39:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,468
@ VVS and any other wazuarian (I hate that name!) in the know, how high is this KQ baby likely to go factoring in fundamentals, speculative + emotional tendencies etc. etc. I got me a bundle at Kshs. 24 and I think I should cash in some time soon. Paper gains don't pay bills - if you know what I mean. A couple of weeks ago I was cursing not exiting at Kshs. 55 but today at Kshs. 64.5 I don't know if I should exit or hold on. Who knows where we are headed? 168% return is not bad at all but it's not as juicy at 268%!!! Ha ha ha. Greed is good - if you understand it and can control it somewhat.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
mv_ufanisi
#26 Posted : Wednesday, March 17, 2010 2:55:12 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
@Maichblack - tough question. I also got in at 23. At 36 or so I bought more. Then when the stock hit 48 I sold half. So now I'm left with half. The half I sold gave me back my capital so now what I have left are "free" shares and I'm not under pressure to sell. I'm not kicking myself for missing out the 25% gain on what I sold - the stock could have gone down and I'd be rejoicing for selling. Just prudent risk control is what you need. Right now I see supply coming in and if the big money is not there to buy it the share will move back to the 50s.
2012
#27 Posted : Wednesday, March 17, 2010 4:13:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
@ VVS and any other wazuarian (I hate that name!) in the know, how high is this KQ baby likely to go factoring in fundamentals, speculative + emotional tendencies etc. etc. I got me a bundle at Kshs. 24 and I think I should cash in some time soon. Paper gains don't pay bills - if you know what I mean. A couple of weeks ago I was cursing not exiting at Kshs. 55 but today at Kshs. 64.5 I don't know if I should exit or hold on. Who knows where we are headed? 168% return is not bad at all but it's not as juicy at 268%!!! Ha ha ha. Greed is good - if you understand it and can control it somewhat.



My friend, never hold airline stock in Africa especially after you've made your money. Si kwa ubaya but it only takes one event (you know what I'm talking about) and you could see it plummet to below what you bought at. My advice, SELL NOW!

BBI will solve it
:)
sparkly
#28 Posted : Wednesday, March 17, 2010 6:23:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@MB ask yourself... what were your intentions when you bought this stock? If for long term returns... keep, if to trade short term...sell and look for better potential, if for dividend ...keep, if for your pride and ego... Dont matter
Life is short. Live passionately.
VituVingiSana
#29 Posted : Wednesday, March 17, 2010 9:17:33 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,137
Location: Nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
@ VVS 168% return is not bad at all but it's not as juicy at 268%!!! Ha ha ha. Greed is good - if you understand it and can control it somewhat.

You answered your own question. The NAV was 43 on 30 Sep 2009) but the 2H will add much more as oil prices have risen so have the 'value' on their hedges vs 30 Sep 2009.

I am holding my stake for higher prices coz:

- I see strong foreign interest (25-75% net buying daily). They tend to be less speculative vs retail or local institutions.
- I see a bonus or split (since they did not do it earlier & shareholders want one)
- I see a dividend back to 1.75 (or more)
- I see few other alternates with low P/E or P/B that are well run.
- BA strike means the competitive but busy (& crucial) London routes will be more profitable in a slow January/February
- Consolidate the Africa business (5 new routes in the past 12 months)
- China business picking up (China-NBO-Africa)
- WC2010 will give KQ a temporary boost. Remember we are talking China-UK-Holland all using NBO as a transit point to S.Africa.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Pierce
#30 Posted : Thursday, March 18, 2010 6:30:04 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/16/2009
Posts: 1,464
Guys guys........I have not slept all night(happens when I'm just about to make big money.....ha ha )thinkin about this stock!Anyways, me thinks Scan at 28 could be a good buy! This has been it's average selling price for a while now. With all this advertising coming coming up, this must be a good deal.

Today 18th Mar 2010 is my last day of 'watching'.

Will update you, Teusday morning on what transpires on Monday.

On KQ:-Ever heard of meeting an annual bugdet by mid-year, that could be on the offing......WC
guru267
#31 Posted : Thursday, March 18, 2010 7:48:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
i've spent a whole three weeks trying to collect money for KQ... now that i've finally got it i,m planning a massive re-entry at 55-57BOB..

i hope it can fall that far...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
ecstacy
#32 Posted : Thursday, March 18, 2010 8:01:21 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
Any KQ buyers hold off until the profit taking subsides...
2012
#33 Posted : Thursday, March 18, 2010 9:01:58 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
Pierce wrote:
On KQ:-Ever heard of meeting an annual bugdet by mid-year, that could be on the offing......WC


Did you mean to say annual target?

BBI will solve it
:)
VituVingiSana
#34 Posted : Thursday, March 18, 2010 10:27:03 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,137
Location: Nairobi
@pierce - Whatcha talking about?
What was the annual target for KQ?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Murenju
#35 Posted : Thursday, March 18, 2010 11:39:31 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/13/2006
Posts: 94
Location: Nairobi
I am now sure that people follow advice posted on this blog and act on it. KQ has lost 9.37%
Knock hard and it will be opened. Ask and you will be answered. Seek and you shall find.
VituVingiSana
#36 Posted : Thursday, March 18, 2010 12:50:02 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,137
Location: Nairobi
@murenju - I cant trade on NSE coz the commissions are a killer (3-5% for roundabout trades) but these peaks & dips are expected...

I remain bullish (less so since the price has risen) coz I expect a better 2H vs 1H... It is events like the Pan African Media that boost KQ's profitable 'business-class' flights...

BA strike will also help fill the seats on Europe-Nairobi (esp LHR-NBO)...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#37 Posted : Thursday, March 18, 2010 2:16:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@VVS with more 6million shares traded in the current range... trends indicate a bull run... i'm getting in tomorrow big time at 56bob if the profit takers allow Pray ..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mv_ufanisi
#38 Posted : Thursday, March 18, 2010 8:29:57 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
@guru267 - I think there are people who will be offering to sell at 54. So kaa chonjo don't over pay for this flight.
2012
#39 Posted : Friday, March 19, 2010 8:38:46 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
mv_ufanisi wrote:
@guru267 - I think there are people who will be offering to sell at 54. So kaa chonjo don't over pay for this flight.


Will go even lower. All the counters that shot up for no apparent reason are coming down. I guess it's a reality check readjustment, look at Neveready. But KQ will go back up soon so I'm waiting for it at 50/51.

BBI will solve it
:)
Jaguar
#40 Posted : Friday, March 19, 2010 9:48:58 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/7/2007
Posts: 263
Location: humu humu
@52.50 (-9.48%) with no buyers, 113,800 shares up for grabs


Quantity Price Time
13,000 52.50 11:37
5,000 52.50 11:37
2,600 53.00 11:37
15,100 53.50 11:37
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