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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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Time to buy, but watch were Gova is , this may be a safer place evem MSC has not dropped like some of those other fellowers
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Spikes wrote:am sceptical about nse regulators. conflict of interest. when cornered by the bear they' don't post the results. wapende wasipende stocks zitayeyuka! I have complained about this on several occasions. NSE is just unprofessional when it comes to relaying information. This is how rival exchanges show up. I'll gladly support an alternate exchange when the time comes. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Just for visuals. NSE20 14 year cartoon.  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mwenza wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:Going by today's banking sector nosedive NSE20 will print sub 3900. 3900 - 3999 is an air pocket! Next support cluster is 3500 level. 3875.80 Disastrous bloodbath! When safaricom, equity, KCB, EABL and BAT join the dance proper we should be at 3500 surely The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:mwenza wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:Going by today's banking sector nosedive NSE20 will print sub 3900. 3900 - 3999 is an air pocket! Next support cluster is 3500 level. 3875.80 Disastrous bloodbath! When safaricom, equity, KCB, EABL and BAT join the dance proper we should be at 3500 surely Indeed. Today's NSE20 slide was 2.59% which ensured that only 9 gainers saw the light today while 32 counters were in the red zone. For every gainer there were 3 losers! Starting to feel like a bear now. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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murchr wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@Muthawamunene - Good stuff though I stay away from most GoK controlled firms. BTW, Buffett owns 'energy' assets but he owns them vs investing in government controlled utilities. That's a huge difference.
On Unga, I remain positive with the growth in the population, restructuring in Uganda, collaboration with Seaboard and new products.
Good Luck. What would you say about Buffet investing in Chinese govt owned stocks Petro-China being an example? http://www.biznews.com/i...n-on-a-500m-investment/
1) Petrochina was an oil play NOT a utility. Buffett owns 'energy' assets but he owns them vs investing in government controlled utilities.2) He sold out at a very good price. http://www.cnbc.com/id/21366355
3) Bought them in 2002 for $488mn. Sold in 2007 for $4bn (prices between 160-200). Briefly peaked at $255. Fell to $63 in 2008. Now at $81. https://www.google.com/finance?cid=664536 ... He is a genius. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/15/2013 Posts: 1,977 Location: Here
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hisah wrote:Just for visuals. NSE20 14 year cartoon. @hisah having this in mind coupled with prevailing economic conditions and tough times ahead into election period, a sub 3000 is very possible.@Aguy is smiling all along to the market always walking with cheque book. Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Boris Boyka wrote:hisah wrote:Just for visuals. NSE20 14 year cartoon. @hisah having this in mind coupled with prevailing economic conditions and tough times ahead into election period, a sub 3000 is very possible.@Aguy is smiling all along to the market always walking with cheque book. Yep Boris. You know I love buying than selling! Ha ha. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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Aguytrying wrote:Boris Boyka wrote:hisah wrote:Just for visuals. NSE20 14 year cartoon. @hisah having this in mind coupled with prevailing economic conditions and tough times ahead into election period, a sub 3000 is very possible.@Aguy is smiling all along to the market always walking with cheque book. Yep Boris. You know I love buying than selling! Ha ha. @Aguytrying I hope this latest moved has cooled your heels. Lakini keep the cheque book handy!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2009 Posts: 2,863
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Aguytrying wrote:mwenza wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:Going by today's banking sector nosedive NSE20 will print sub 3900. 3900 - 3999 is an air pocket! Next support cluster is 3500 level. 3875.80 Disastrous bloodbath! When safaricom, equity, KCB, EABL and BAT join the dance proper we should be at 3500 surely You mean @250 bob, EABL is yet to dance? Mimi kwisha! IF YOU EXPECT ME TO POST ANYTHING POSITIVE ABOUT ASENO, YOU MAY AS WELL SIT ON A PIN
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/7/2014 Posts: 155
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Boris Boyka wrote:hisah wrote:Just for visuals. NSE20 14 year cartoon. @hisah having this in mind coupled with prevailing economic conditions and tough times ahead into election period, a sub 3000 is very possible.@Aguy is smiling all along to the market always walking with cheque book. http://www.businessdaily...0/-/3d7q3vz/-/index.html
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/14/2010 Posts: 806 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:Just for visuals. NSE20 14 year cartoon. @Hisah - thanks great info. Just thinking (dont shoot me, am a layman)...if the you were to redraw the line assuming that the major lows are in 2001(2002?) and in 2009. what will be the projected new bottoming out level?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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hisah wrote:Spikes wrote:am sceptical about nse regulators. conflict of interest. when cornered by the bear they' don't post the results. wapende wasipende stocks zitayeyuka! I have complained about this on several occasions. NSE is just unprofessional when it comes to relaying information. This is how rival exchanges show up. I'll gladly support an alternate exchange when the time comes. Quite unprofessional and may be even confused. But shouldn't the results reflect automatically? I mean they installed a system for automatic matching and reporting transactions?! Is the system overwhelmed? And to note that we are still early in the bear!!  Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 Pp 164 Quote:...
Monopoly priviledges stifle innovation, so when monopoly power is removed, an industry is allowed to develop. In contrast, upon every single antitrust action against successful non-monopoly corporations (read Safaricom), innovation did (does) not
immediately burst forth. The reason is that each of these successful companies, in a climate of free competition, was precisely the one responsible for the immense innovation (e.g. Mpesa, introduction of High Speed Mobile internet) that had already occurred. These disparate results confirm the difference between the two types of entities.
We can now see that the principle behind the government's actions with respect to these disparate entities is the same: At tops, the government initiates force to stifle free competition and success ( attacks on Safaricom on alleged dominance); at bottoms, it removes force that has stifled free competition and success. This latter impetus takes two forms: withdrawing antitrust actions against successful non-monopoly companies and dissolving actual monopolies. With this knowledge, we again have the ability to do some limited probabilistic forecasting both in terms of predicting actions against monopolies and predicting major social mood changes when those actions occur Thus, if Safaricom survives the bear market, we should expect governmental attacks against it to reduce as social mood once again turns positive (i.e when the NSE 20 Share Index bottoms and starts the leg up, and if by then it will not have been broken up as intended by the gov., then the impetus to break it up will dissolve). On the other hand as the bear market probes a bottom, we should expect monopolies such as Posta and Kenya Power to be broken up and new entrants to compete directly with them. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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The permeating negative social mood cause government agencies to become sloppy. Such an environment is rife for terrorist attacks. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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A Socionomic View of AccidentsAt market tops (the height of positive social mood) flying is safer while driving is dangerous. The elevated social mood creates feelings of inclusionism. Flying requires joint effort with different teams working together to make the event a success. Thus enough attention is directed at safety. The elevated social mood creates optimism. Optimistic drivers over-speed thus leading to accidents. ................................................. In bear markets, social mood is depressed creating feelings of exclusionism (people pulling in different directions). Thus, for flights, this pulling apart precludes paying enough attention to safety measures hence aviation accidents. Depressed people do not over-speed thus fewer vehicular accidents in a bear market. Therefore, as this bear matures, ensure you limit frequency of your flying and embark on driving more.  Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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hisah wrote:Just for visuals. NSE20 14 year cartoon. @hisah Charts Tell The Truth!  Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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The likely scenario playing out in the NSE 20 Share Index is a series of 1rst and Second Waves viz:  So here we have Minor waves 1,2, Minute waves [ i ] , [ ii ], and Minuette waves (i), (ii). The expectation forward is completion of wave (iii) in the series. This wave (iii) should prove to be the point of capitulation i.e it should be sharply down and at its completion there should be no doubt in anybody's mind that we are indeed in a bear market. In fact the periods 18th - 22nd October have the worst market crashes in the past. We can target the end of wave (iii) as follows: Wave (i) = ( 4519.63 - 4080.83 ) = 438.8 We expect wave (iii) to be related to wave (i) by a Fibonacci multiple i.e Wave (iii) is usually 1.618 X wave (i); Twice wave (i); 2.618 X wave (i) or even 4.236 X wave (i). Likely Targets for wave (iii) are: 1. 4257.27 - (1.618 X 438.8) = 3547.292. 4257.27 - (2.000 X 438.8) = 3379.673. 4257.27 - (2.618 X 438.8) = 3108.494. 4257.27 - (4.236 X 438.8) = 2398.51 We look to options 1 and 2 currently. Pheew! Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,124 Location: Nairobi
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Can you do this with 3 points? [pre-Moi 2000/1 being the first point] winston wrote:hisah wrote:Just for visuals. NSE20 14 year cartoon. @Hisah - thanks great info. Just thinking (dont shoot me, am a layman)...if the you were to redraw the line assuming that the major lows are in 2001(2002?) and in 2009. what will be the projected new bottoming out level? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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Is the market bull picking up or a deceptive social mood primed for a crash next week? John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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