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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
murchr
#1001 Posted : Tuesday, October 13, 2015 5:30:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
3,978.70
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
mnandii
#1002 Posted : Tuesday, October 13, 2015 5:47:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
murchr wrote:
3,978.70


Pray

Requires that I update the Short Term chart. Seems to be a series 1,2 , 1,2s
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
snipermnoma
#1003 Posted : Wednesday, October 14, 2015 3:18:57 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
mnandii wrote:
murchr wrote:
3,978.70


Pray

Requires that I update the Short Term chart. Seems to be a series 1,2 , 1,2s


Looking forward to it. By the way, I should mention I ordered for The Wave Principle of Human Social Behaviour so that I start getting a better understanding.
hisah
#1004 Posted : Wednesday, October 14, 2015 8:01:25 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mnandii wrote:
@VVS

Thanks for the challenge. It is not feasible however to do Elliott Wave analysis on the four counters you mention (KK, WTK, Kenya Re and I $ M Bank).

If you look at their charts they are nowhere near any Elliott Wave patterns. The explanation for this is simple.

Elliott Waves track human psychology. As such it works best where there is wide public participation e.g in the NSE 20 Share Index, $KES and Safaricom. These three are showing very good Elliott Patterns and thus the reason why I track them. In markets such as the USA individual stocks show clear Elliott Wave patterns e.g Apple stock below:



Image Courtesy Elliott Wave International


In the case of individual stocks in Kenya (other than Safaricom), value investing may work (obviously it has worked so far for you) upto a degree. Am saying this because in a deflationary environment (which I feel we have entered) almost all things lose value. A company may be good and with excellent management but if the people who are expected to drive up its share price are lacking in means then it becomes a matter of faith/hope to expect any worthwhile upside in the stock.

Please note that my earlier opinion was not meant to disparage your view of the market.

Wow! Is that a 15yr chart of apple! The next selloff will be massive in the bidless vacuum I highly expect in 2016!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
VituVingiSana
#1005 Posted : Wednesday, October 14, 2015 8:55:30 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,124
Location: Nairobi
mnandii wrote:
@VVS

Thanks for the challenge. It is not feasible however to do Elliott Wave analysis on the four counters you mention (KK, WTK, Kenya Re and I $ M Bank).

If you look at their charts they are nowhere near any Elliott Wave patterns. The explanation for this is simple.

Elliott Waves track human psychology. As such it works best where there is wide public participation e.g in the NSE 20 Share Index, $KES and Safaricom. These three are showing very good Elliott Patterns and thus the reason why I track them. In markets such as the USA individual stocks show clear Elliott Wave patterns e.g Apple stock below:



Image Courtesy Elliott Wave International


In the case of individual stocks in Kenya (other than Safaricom), value investing may work (obviously it has worked so far for you) upto a degree. Am saying this because in a deflationary environment (which I feel we have entered) almost all things lose value. A company may be good and with excellent management but if the people who are expected to drive up its share price are lacking in means then it becomes a matter of faith/hope to expect any worthwhile upside in the stock.

Please note that my earlier opinion was not meant to disparage your view of the market.

No offense taken. I enjoy reading your analysis. Even more important, I am learning.

I understand what you mean by 'wide public participation' which is why I do not [to my detriment re: Safaricom] participate in buying 'herd' shares unless I see value using metrics I think Warren Buffett uses.
The reason I have those 4 positions is that I faced little competition when I was buying BUT I will probably suffer illiquidity when I want to sell. Of course, I do not intend to sell them unless (1) fundamentals change (2) the price greatly outpaces fundamentals.

I am not averse to deflation since it increases the value of my 'assets' i.e. my 1/- will buy more in the future than today. Of course, the deflation may reduce the 'price' of my assets too! BTW, the 4 firms are (generally) cash-rich thus benefit from deflation. KK and Unga are exposed to working capital debt & don't have spare cash but they have inventories that can be readily (3-6 months) converted to cash. WTK is a cash cow at current tea prices & weak KES/USD. KenRe is cash-rich with lots of T-Bills and T-Bonds benefitting from the high rates offered by GoK.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Muthawamunene
#1006 Posted : Wednesday, October 14, 2015 10:14:14 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
sparkly wrote:
hisah wrote:
@mnandii, spt, sparkly


The week of Aug 23rd has an interesting vol spike similar in appearance to the one on Oct 2014 that forced the index to rally to new highs. But the recent one has weakness behind it. If the index has a massive rally towards the 2015 highs, I'd look to fade that rally as I expect 2016 the sky to come down! One last santa rally and then it gets cold next year.


I agree, the Santa Claus rally cannot be sustained but once the current weakness ends, we will see the mother of all rallies.

Nice chart @Hisah. I see we are back up, thanks to the poor Sept NFP numbers. Still waiting for that surprise FED rate hike. Like Jesus, it will come like a thiefsmile The fall will be a sight to behold!


Nowadays chartists aka cartoons in the last bear are taken very seriously. Shows the gravity of the current situation. Like Muthawamunene I'm waiting for the big guns to fall and swoop



He he. I just got mentioned.

My strategy is simple, I am young (early 20's), I can afford to look at the long term. I'm not really waiting for "..the big guns to fall and swoop", I wait for ridiculous valuations to come to an end. If valuations at the stock market are bonkers, there are other investment channels.

Of course one has to know how to value a company, and this is not just by reading balance sheets and ratios, it's knowing as much as you can about the industry, the company, the market and the environment.

I am a big fan of Peter Lynch esp the story where the husband was poring over financial reports and documents and failed to see the wife buying clothes made by a small company whose stock later exploded.

So as the economic turmoil ensues, there are companies with solid growth trajectories whose stock prices are getting beaten up - these I like.

ENERGY/UTILITIES

I have been slowly accumulating utilities cautiously due to gov involvement, rights issues and the new tender irregularities (I hope these will be resolved quickly and not be repeated). I think the energy sector is a great place to park money as a base for the portfolio. Utilities won't shine as much high-finance stocks, but they are relatively stable on the slumps. The growth is slow and capital intensive, but with good management the growth in returns is healthy. Even Buffet had some G.E as a base.

CHANGE IN PERCEPTION.

Good management is also to look out for. When management empowers employees with programs such as Kaizen - UNGA and G2G - KENGEN, the mentality of the workers changes. And motivated employees who take pride in their work are great assets. I also think that when the farmers start practicing the agricultural education they are getting now, UNGA will reap handsomely. Of course this is not certain, but that's why its called investing.

The cheapening valuations just make it the right time to make that decision to put your spare income in companies you think are doing things righ. I try not to time the market, I only have how much self loathing I am willing to live with if I buy too early or sell to late, but the bottom line is that I have an income generating asset.
VituVingiSana
#1007 Posted : Wednesday, October 14, 2015 10:31:33 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,124
Location: Nairobi
@Muthawamunene - Good stuff though I stay away from most GoK controlled firms. BTW, Buffett owns 'energy' assets but he owns them vs investing in government controlled utilities. That's a huge difference.

On Unga, I remain positive with the growth in the population, restructuring in Uganda, collaboration with Seaboard and new products.

Good Luck.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Aguytrying
#1008 Posted : Wednesday, October 14, 2015 11:38:24 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
@Muthawamunene - Good stuff though I stay away from most GoK controlled firms. BTW, Buffett owns 'energy' assets but he owns them vs investing in government controlled utilities. That's a huge difference.

On Unga, I remain positive with the growth in the population, restructuring in Uganda, collaboration with Seaboard and new products.

Good Luck.


@Muthawamunene. Same thing I thought after reading your comment. stay away from gava entities, go through this forum, there are countless examples as to why they are not good investments. " I hope these will be resolved quickly and not repeated" A very dangerous assumption. The resolution is slow and it WILL be repeated. There are stocks im longing to own Saf, equity, kCB, BAT, EABL these are my 'Big guns"
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Aguytrying
#1009 Posted : Wednesday, October 14, 2015 1:11:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
ACTION! volume spike on equity Bank 22 million shares so far.

@hisah. kindly interpret this move.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
instinct
#1010 Posted : Wednesday, October 14, 2015 2:13:15 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
What! in Gods name is happening at the NSE??
murchr
#1011 Posted : Wednesday, October 14, 2015 2:27:14 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
VituVingiSana wrote:
@Muthawamunene - Good stuff though I stay away from most GoK controlled firms. BTW, Buffett owns 'energy' assets but he owns them vs investing in government controlled utilities. That's a huge difference.

On Unga, I remain positive with the growth in the population, restructuring in Uganda, collaboration with Seaboard and new products.

Good Luck.


What would you say about Buffet investing in Chinese govt owned stocks Petro-China being an example?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
hisah
#1012 Posted : Wednesday, October 14, 2015 2:34:20 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
ACTION! volume spike on equity Bank 22 million shares so far.

@hisah. kindly interpret this move.

Things are very red today... Markets jump off the cliff when financials get attacked. The CBK move has spooked the market. FTSE NSE indices erasing the entire September bounce and will definitely dip below the August year low! The gauges are down 3% plus.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
maka
#1013 Posted : Wednesday, October 14, 2015 2:45:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
ACTION! volume spike on equity Bank 22 million shares so far.

@hisah. kindly interpret this move.

Things are very red today... Markets jump off the cliff when financials get attacked. The CBK move has spooked the market. FTSE NSE indices erasing the entire September bounce and will definitely dip below the August year low! The gauges are down 3% plus.


BBK...KCB...Scangroup...wololo smile
possunt quia posse videntur
lochaz-index
#1014 Posted : Wednesday, October 14, 2015 4:13:29 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
instinct wrote:
What! in Gods name is happening at the NSE??


Your deer in headlights moment came so soon.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
enyands
#1015 Posted : Wednesday, October 14, 2015 4:17:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
mnandii wrote:
murchr wrote:
3,978.70


Pray

Requires that I update the Short Term chart. Seems to be a series 1,2 , 1,2s



@mnadii I have never been anxious about the economy like this year .when will this dark clouds pass . Will things return back to normal end of the year ama till next three yrs. Ama put it this way for how long will cash at hand be king
lochaz-index
#1016 Posted : Wednesday, October 14, 2015 4:24:24 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@Muthawamunene - Good stuff though I stay away from most GoK controlled firms. BTW, Buffett owns 'energy' assets but he owns them vs investing in government controlled utilities. That's a huge difference.

On Unga, I remain positive with the growth in the population, restructuring in Uganda, collaboration with Seaboard and new products.

Good Luck.


What would you say about Buffet investing in Chinese govt owned stocks Petro-China being an example?


Bought at a massive discount in 2003 and offloaded 4 years later at an almost tenfold profit. One of my best Buffet moves. Taught me a lot back then.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
hisah
#1017 Posted : Wednesday, October 14, 2015 4:36:51 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Going by today's banking sector nosedive NSE20 will print sub 3900. 3900 - 3999 is an air pocket! Next support cluster is 3500 level.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Aguytrying
#1018 Posted : Wednesday, October 14, 2015 5:49:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
Going by today's banking sector nosedive NSE20 will print sub 3900. 3900 - 3999 is an air pocket! Next support cluster is 3500 level.


3875.80
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mwenza
#1019 Posted : Wednesday, October 14, 2015 5:54:47 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2009
Posts: 2,863
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
Going by today's banking sector nosedive NSE20 will print sub 3900. 3900 - 3999 is an air pocket! Next support cluster is 3500 level.


3875.80


Disastrous bloodbath!
IF YOU EXPECT ME TO POST ANYTHING POSITIVE ABOUT ASENO, YOU MAY AS WELL SIT ON A PIN
Spikes
#1020 Posted : Wednesday, October 14, 2015 6:01:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
am sceptical about nse regulators. conflict of interest. when cornered by the bear they' don't post the results. wapende wasipende stocks zitayeyuka!
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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