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Bear 2015 Wish List
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Afroblk wrote:I'm loving the bear...but it's not gonna last long...and so...one of my bond matured and here's how I'm re-investing the proceeds and take advantage of the bear starting tomorrow until I get all shares as planned, hopefully by 15 Oct. I'll be adding three new counters to my portfolio i.e. Centum, ARM and HFCK. I already have significant KQ and Britam but will be adding some more to average down.
Entry point (9/29/15-10/15/15)
KQ-18,000 @5.5
Britam-8,800 @17
HFCK-6,500 @23
ARM-6000 @42
Centum-5,700 @52
My target exit point is on or around 15 Sep 16 (1 yr from today) and targeting the following returns;
KQ-@9.00
Britam-@36
HFCK-@55
ARM-@92
Centum-@85
As you can see, if all plays and goes well of which I think most companies will do well 1&2 Qtrs then I'm looking at aprx 100% return in profits (Ksh0.9M) calculation based on ex div. I've factored in 100k in est broker fees.
I'll revisit this thread in Aug-Sep 2016 when I'm offloading.
Good Luck! I sincerely hope you have aligned your investment strategy to your risk appetite. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Afroblk wrote:I'm loving the bear...but it's not gonna last long...and so...one of my bond matured and here's how I'm re-investing the proceeds and take advantage of the bear starting tomorrow until I get all shares as planned, hopefully by 15 Oct. I'll be adding three new counters to my portfolio i.e. Centum, ARM and HFCK. I already have significant KQ and Britam but will be adding some more to average down.
Entry point (9/29/15-10/15/15)
KQ-18,000 @5.5
Britam-8,800 @17
HFCK-6,500 @23
ARM-6000 @42
Centum-5,700 @52
My target exit point is on or around 15 Sep 16 (1 yr from today) and targeting the following returns;
KQ-@9.00
Britam-@36
HFCK-@55
ARM-@92
Centum-@85
As you can see, if all plays and goes well of which I think most companies will do well 1&2 Qtrs then I'm looking at aprx 100% return in profits (Ksh0.9M) calculation based on ex div. I've factored in 100k in est broker fees.
I'll revisit this thread in Aug-Sep 2016 when I'm offloading.
Good Luck! Too early to take positions, unless if you are getting into the defensive stocks with a focus on dividends. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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Museveni wrote:Aguytrying wrote:The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve. Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre. In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round. Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now. STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7 CURRENT PRICE
EQUITY 4.63 25-33 44.75
KCB 5.63 30-40 45.00
NIC 7.07 38-49 41.75
NSE 2.13 12-15 20.75
DTB 21.92 120-154 200.00
HFCK 2.75 15-20 21.75
JUBILEE 48 264-340 508.00
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43 62.00
SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE) 14.65
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely) 143.00
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS) 28.75
BAMBURI 9.80 98-130 166.00
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE) 9.00
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE) 266.00
ARM 3.01 30-45 39.75
BAT 42.55 300-450 758.00
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21 62.50
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7 7.00
BOC 11.76 65-85 112.00 Updating the current prices as of today
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@snipermnoma. Awesome work, the list remains relevant, the prices were so high but now bargains creeping into the list slowly. currently Nic and ARM in the zone. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/31/2007 Posts: 304
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lochaz-index wrote:Afroblk wrote:I'm loving the bear...but it's not gonna last long...and so...one of my bond matured and here's how I'm re-investing the proceeds and take advantage of the bear starting tomorrow until I get all shares as planned, hopefully by 15 Oct. I'll be adding three new counters to my portfolio i.e. Centum, ARM and HFCK. I already have significant KQ and Britam but will be adding some more to average down.
Entry point (9/29/15-10/15/15)
KQ-18,000 @5.5
Britam-8,800 @17
HFCK-6,500 @23
ARM-6000 @42
Centum-5,700 @52
My target exit point is on or around 15 Sep 16 (1 yr from today) and targeting the following returns;
KQ-@9.00
Britam-@36
HFCK-@55
ARM-@92
Centum-@85
As you can see, if all plays and goes well of which I think most companies will do well 1&2 Qtrs then I'm looking at aprx 100% return in profits (Ksh0.9M) calculation based on ex div. I've factored in 100k in est broker fees.
I'll revisit this thread in Aug-Sep 2016 when I'm offloading.
Good Luck! I sincerely hope you have aligned your investment strategy to your risk appetite. Exit prices of Britam,HFCK,ARM and Centum appear grossly optimistic within a one year time frame and given the current market mood.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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moneydust wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Afroblk wrote:I'm loving the bear...but it's not gonna last long...and so...one of my bond matured and here's how I'm re-investing the proceeds and take advantage of the bear starting tomorrow until I get all shares as planned, hopefully by 15 Oct. I'll be adding three new counters to my portfolio i.e. Centum, ARM and HFCK. I already have significant KQ and Britam but will be adding some more to average down.
Entry point (9/29/15-10/15/15)
KQ-18,000 @5.5
Britam-8,800 @17
HFCK-6,500 @23
ARM-6000 @42
Centum-5,700 @52
My target exit point is on or around 15 Sep 16 (1 yr from today) and targeting the following returns;
KQ-@9.00
Britam-@36
HFCK-@55
ARM-@92
Centum-@85
As you can see, if all plays and goes well of which I think most companies will do well 1&2 Qtrs then I'm looking at aprx 100% return in profits (Ksh0.9M) calculation based on ex div. I've factored in 100k in est broker fees.
I'll revisit this thread in Aug-Sep 2016 when I'm offloading.
Good Luck! I sincerely hope you have aligned your investment strategy to your risk appetite. Exit prices of Britam,HFCK,ARM and Centum appear grossly optimistic within a one year time frame and given the current market mood. Me thinks so too. We need at least 3 years before the current market mood returns. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: User Joined: 1/20/2014 Posts: 3,528
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Looks like the downside movement still has a long way to go...... massive legroom!!! Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/15/2010 Posts: 625
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If some additional banks follow Imperial Bank in the way of receivership, the NSE will see a long winter.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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NIC bank today closed at 38.25! At my lower limit level!! Should I revise down my price range, or I remove the lower limit! The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2007 Posts: 294
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Aguytrying wrote:NIC bank today closed at 38.25! At my lower limit level!! Should I revise down my price range, or I remove the lower limit! It should hit 25/- at some point... Kenyans like comparing oranges with apples (shareprices without any regards to No of issued shares)so while Equity n KCB are at 40bob, expect NIC to hit sub 30/-
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