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CARBACID-Any hope?
Wondergirl
#1 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 10:22:09 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/12/2009
Posts: 312
Fellow Wazuans,
My portfolio is really in the red- thanks to my investments in carbacid. Is there hope in it ever going up- Carbacid that is? Right now I have lost massively, i feel tempted to sell it and start afresh- your thoughts please.Pray Pray
obiero
#2 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 10:30:44 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,515
Location: nairobi
Wondergirl wrote:
Fellow Wazuans,
My portfolio is really in the red- thanks to my investments in carbacid. Is there hope in it ever going up- Carbacid that is? Right now I have lost massively, i feel tempted to sell it and start afresh- your thoughts please.Pray Pray

Sell only if u have a need for the cash at the moment. Otherwise, when the bear moves out, it is likely to move up with the other counters, at that point is when u can evaluate a sell decision. Selling in a bear is not wise, since at that time the fair value of even a bad stock isnt evident. Carbacid as a company isnt struggling and its influence in carbonated drinks should ensure it continues to thrive/survive. Hope u make sense out of all this, seeing as im 37% down on KQ and applying similar philosophy

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
mlennyma
#3 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 10:42:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
Avoid panic in stock trading,carbacid the way I see it has just become a bear soft target but fundamentally nothing is so bad to warrant panic selling.They recently discovered fresh carbon dioxide areas in kiambu,may be if you have cash flow problems you can sell.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Sam_Kibs
#4 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 10:43:45 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 7/1/2015
Posts: 67
Wondergirl wrote:
Fellow Wazuans,
My portfolio is really in the red- thanks to my investments in carbacid. Is there hope in it ever going up- Carbacid that is? Right now I have lost massively, i feel tempted to sell it and start afresh- your thoughts please.Pray Pray

i advise you to close your eyes and avoid checking the prices daily movements as they'll give you a heart attack. Carbacid is a good investment...hold on dearly.
“It’s no good, it’s no good!” says the buyer—
then goes off and boasts about the purchase-Proverbs 20:14
sparkly
#5 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 11:21:47 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@wondergal always wondering. You asked similar questions on Cables in 2010...

m.wazua.co.ke/forum.aspx?g=posts&t=6071

The bear has a way of spooking you. To avoid ulcers buy blue chips during the bear, sit back, enjoy dividends and don't be bothered when the market tanks.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Wondergirl
#6 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 11:32:45 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/12/2009
Posts: 312
Thanks guys, I'm wiser.
Wondergirl
#7 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 11:58:37 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/12/2009
Posts: 312
sparkly wrote:
@wondergal always wondering. You asked similar questions on Cables in 2010...

m.wazua.co.ke/forum.aspx?g=posts&t=6071

The bear has a way of spooking you. To avoid ulcers buy blue chips during the bear, sit back, enjoy dividends and don't be bothered when the market tanks.

Sparkly,
and your memory sparkles Applause Applause , but isn't that what Wazua is all about? Helping each other out?
Realtreaty
#8 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 4:13:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,297
Sleep for two more weeks and wake up after Mashujaa day as a shujaa or Martyr!! You may have some few coins to make roughly 70cents per share this October
Kenyan Oracle
#9 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 6:19:12 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 250
Wondergirl, as you are contemplating bailing out, some of us are loading on this.
You lose money chasing women, but you never lose women chasing money - NAS
Pesa Nane
#10 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 9:29:41 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
Realtreaty wrote:
Sleep for two more weeks and wake up after Mashujaa day as a shujaa or Martyr!! You may have some few coins to make roughly 70cents per share this October


Post 201

instinct wrote:
Realty wacha kuvuta bangi
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
Realtreaty
#11 Posted : Tuesday, October 20, 2015 11:05:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,297
This is the do or die week for Carbacid. Good results will see a good price jump from 15 to 25 within short period as it twerks towards its split price of 43. A poor will make it stagnant for another 6 months. Could Carbacid be another Shujaa?
Othelo
#12 Posted : Tuesday, October 20, 2015 11:27:23 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
Realtreaty wrote:
This is the do or die week for Carbacid. Good results will see a good price jump from 15 to 25 within short period as it twerks towards its split price of 43. A poor will make it stagnant for another 6 months. Could Carbacid be another Shujaa?

Boss, have a reality check smile
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
sparkly
#13 Posted : Tuesday, October 20, 2015 11:34:36 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Othelo wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
This is the do or die week for Carbacid. Good results will see a good price jump from 15 to 25 within short period as it twerks towards its split price of 43. A poor will make it stagnant for another 6 months. Could Carbacid be another Shujaa?

Boss, have a reality check smile

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Life is short. Live passionately.
grahamsdisciple
#14 Posted : Tuesday, October 20, 2015 11:36:45 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 10/19/2015
Posts: 21
Location: Everywhere
sparkly wrote:
Othelo wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
This is the do or die week for Carbacid. Good results will see a good price jump from 15 to 25 within short period as it twerks towards its split price of 43. A poor will make it stagnant for another 6 months. Could Carbacid be another Shujaa?

Boss, have a reality check smile

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly



We're in a general bear market and this will persist for some time, good results may see a dead cat bounce but nothing more. Nonetheless, this is a solid company note that nowadays 2/3rds of sales are in export markets so weakening currency could boost earnings for the foreseeable future especially with Ethiopia's growing beer market.
Boris Boyka
#15 Posted : Tuesday, October 20, 2015 11:50:10 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
sparkly wrote:
Othelo wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
This is the do or die week for Carbacid. Good results will see a good price jump from 15 to 25 within short period as it twerks towards its split price of 43. A poor will make it stagnant for another 6 months. Could Carbacid be another Shujaa?

Boss, have a reality check smile

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

We need @tycho here for some psychoanalysis smile smile
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
Sam_Kibs
#16 Posted : Thursday, October 22, 2015 3:53:13 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 7/1/2015
Posts: 67
Realtreaty wrote:
This is the do or die week for Carbacid. Good results will see a good price jump from 15 to 25 within short period as it twerks towards its split price of 43. A poor will make it stagnant for another 6 months. Could Carbacid be another Shujaa?

the long wait is like eternity. what could be the issue? Fingers crossed! price is being heavily attracted to the force of gravity.
“It’s no good, it’s no good!” says the buyer—
then goes off and boasts about the purchase-Proverbs 20:14
grahamsdisciple
#17 Posted : Thursday, October 22, 2015 4:08:38 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 10/19/2015
Posts: 21
Location: Everywhere
As a shareholder, my biggest issue with the stock is that its over-capitalised. They need some debt to balance out the capital structure. An action management could take is to raise 1.5 billion through a corporate bond and buy half of its shareholding back. This will double EPS and ROE significantly.
VituVingiSana
#18 Posted : Thursday, October 22, 2015 8:16:24 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
grahamsdisciple wrote:
As a shareholder, my biggest issue with the stock is that its over-capitalised. They need some debt to balance out the capital structure. An action management could take is to raise 1.5 billion through a corporate bond and buy half of its shareholding back. This will double EPS and ROE significantly.

As a Ben Graham disciple, you should be ashamed of thinking this! There's nothing like 'over-capitalized' considering the current cost of borrowing. Why borrow at 25% when they can invest excess cash at 23%?
If they have excess cash, they can distribute it as a dividend but asking Carbacid to borrow at 25% (or higher) is crazy.

BTW, stock buybacks are not allowed in Kenya. Even if there was a stock buyback, it should only be done when the price is lower than the intrinsic value.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
grahamsdisciple
#19 Posted : Thursday, October 22, 2015 8:35:56 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 10/19/2015
Posts: 21
Location: Everywhere
VituVingiSana wrote:
grahamsdisciple wrote:
As a shareholder, my biggest issue with the stock is that its over-capitalised. They need some debt to balance out the capital structure. An action management could take is to raise 1.5 billion through a corporate bond and buy half of its shareholding back. This will double EPS and ROE significantly.

As a Ben Graham disciple, you should be ashamed of thinking this! There's nothing like 'over-capitalized' considering the current cost of borrowing. Why borrow at 25% when they can invest excess cash at 23%?
If they have excess cash, they can distribute it as a dividend but asking Carbacid to borrow at 25% (or higher) is crazy.

BTW, stock buybacks are not allowed in Kenya. Even if there was a stock buyback, it should only be done when the price is lower than the intrinsic value.




First of all stock buy backs are about to be re-introduced (http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/business/Will-share-buybacks-save-Kenyan-companies--stock-/-/2560/2691460/-/13b7n2l/-/index.html). Secondly, no body said anything about borrowing now, but with the amount of free cash flow Carbacid has, they can borrow at 12% in bad times and maybe lower in good times.


Third, you are the kind of people who read the summary of a book instead of reading the whole book. I'd invite you to read Security Analysis particularly part III when he focuses on equity analysis. There are plenty of times when he says that sometimes debt is good if its properly managed and yes, he even alludes to a company being over-capitalised. I maintain that the company is over-capitalised. They have ROE of around 22% and net margins of 50% if you take last 5-year average so how is borrowing at 14-15% not prudent???
VituVingiSana
#20 Posted : Friday, October 23, 2015 12:56:53 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,103
Location: Nairobi
grahamsdisciple wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
grahamsdisciple wrote:
As a shareholder, my biggest issue with the stock is that its over-capitalised. They need some debt to balance out the capital structure. An action management could take is to raise 1.5 billion through a corporate bond and buy half of its shareholding back. This will double EPS and ROE significantly.

As a Ben Graham disciple, you should be ashamed of thinking this! There's nothing like 'over-capitalized' considering the current cost of borrowing. Why borrow at 25% when they can invest excess cash at 23%?
If they have excess cash, they can distribute it as a dividend but asking Carbacid to borrow at 25% (or higher) is crazy.

BTW, stock buybacks are not allowed in Kenya. Even if there was a stock buyback, it should only be done when the price is lower than the intrinsic value.




First of all stock buy backs are about to be re-introduced
Wake me up when the long-time-in-limbo Companies Bill becomes the Law. Until it is law it will not matter.
(http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/business/Will-share-buybacks-save-Kenyan-companies--stock-/-/2560/2691460/-/13b7n2l/-/index.html).

Secondly, no body said anything about borrowing now, but with the amount of free cash flow Carbacid has, they can borrow at 12% in bad times and maybe lower in good times. The new 'normal' is higher. Banks have been issuing bonds at 12+% when things looked good post-Eurobond. GoK issued tax-free IFBs at 11.75%. If Carbacid was to borrow at 12% then the earnings yield should exceed 12% on a consistent basis. What the current earnings yield of Carbacid?


Third, you are the kind of people who read the summary of a book instead of reading the whole book. Ad hominem attack, eh? I'd invite you to read Security Analysis particularly part III when he focuses on equity analysis. There are plenty of times when he says that sometimes debt is good if its properly managed Yes, sometimes, if managed properly and yes, he even alludes to a company being over-capitalised. I maintain that the company is over-capitalised. They have ROE of around 22% and net margins of 50% if you take last 5-year average so how is borrowing at 14-15% not prudent??? Sigh. I have read Security Analysis. The ROE is irrelevant unless the price = ROE. What the Earnings Yield? Is it 22%?


A firm's ROE is irrelevant when the PRICE is much higher than the NAV/share. The NAV = Equity = Shareholders' Funds.

The net margin of 50% is bolstered by income from deposits/bonds/bills. Nevertheless, I want to hear you out on how you came to a NET MARGIN (also define what the NM is) of 50%. Furthermore, please use actual numbers so we compare apples to apples.

History is history. Until we go back to long-term rates of 12-15% [you said 12% then you said 14-15%] we should look at 25% to be prudent. What Graham called the Margin of Error.

What I said [& I am happy to refer to Security Analysis] is what Warren Buffett calls 'excess cash' which is yielding less by remaining with the firm than it would for the shareholders.

If shareholders can get 22% (less 3.3% w/holding tax) from CBK then it makes little sense for Carbacid to buy 22% bonds, pay 6.6% tax on the interest then shareholders pay 5% on the dividend.

Buying back shares using debt is Financial Engineering. It may may sense in a STABLE market but not when things are volatile. Carbacid shares trade at a substantial premium to NAV.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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