obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:[quote=obiero]On November 12 at the KQ pride centre expect an announcement of KES 7.4B loss before tax.. The profit will soon come, but later than anticipated due to delayed sale of subject craft
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Every 6 months, you tell us the next 6 months will be better. Good luck. In the meantime, drop by the KK & KenRe threads.
I honestly had guesstimated the turnaround by H1, but got new data over the weekend that led me to place a sale of 26,400 shares today.. im still inside the plane, but lighter on baggage
Roho safi. I was like you. I used to believe that things would be better. I believed the hype. I believed the Management. I thought Naikuni was THE GUY.
I lost a lot on KQ. Even on KK (Segman days). As I read more of Buffett's writings, I realized that MANAGEMENT is key.
Ngunze may be a nice guy. He may be competent. The people (eg CFO) are either crooked, incompetent or both.
Segman had hubris. Later I found out that despite the objections of his senior staff (& board) he took outsized BETS (gambling not operations) on forex & oil prices to goose up the EPS.
Ohana is brusque but he reduced debt by reducing inventories (no speculation on the movement in prices), paid off (cheap but not when KES depreciates) FX debt, sold assets, cut costs, etc. He also lucked out that oil prices fell thus reducing the need for Working Capital.
KQ - There's no significant reduction in debt. The 'hard assets' [land, planes] will be sold but as the 2 new 787s [waiting for delivery] come in the debt will rise again.
The most important point is that I do NOT trust the management. Period.
KK has a chance at being bought out at (revised) NAV or better. If not, it can remain profitable with price controls stifling competition.
KQ has little chance of being bought out in its current state. There's too much drama with debtors, pilots, employees, etc. It will have to restructure & the debtors will own the airline while the Shareholders will be wiped out.
In other words,
sell ALL your KQ shares & look for a better firm to put your money in. Good Luck.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett