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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
VituVingiSana
#961 Posted : Sunday, October 11, 2015 10:25:43 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,124
Location: Nairobi
mnandii wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
cnn wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Why are folks trying to 'time the market' ... Warren Buffett doesn't believe in timing the market as much as buying value & he has done very well. Timing the market is always attractive when looked at in hindsight.

He is good at what he knows best.We can't all be Warren Buffetts.One has to know what they are in the market for and try find their own best way in navigating it, to achieve their end.

WB advises us lesser mortals not to bother with timing the market. If WB with all his knowledge and market savvy (gathered over 70 years) cannot time the market, how can we? Food for thought.


I like the way he says it doesn't matter whether it's an election year or any other funny signs.
I'm being guided by my valuations.... But it's tempting to time, won't play that game this time round

Yes. WB looks at it from very interesting (& sensible) perspectives.
1) Don't just buy shares, buy a piece of the company i.e. would you buy the entire company at this price? If yes, buy. If no, then do not.
2) Buy shares in a company if you don't mind owning the shares if the market shuts down for 10 years. Even though I hope KK is taken over, I do not mind buying KK at 9/- to hold for the next 10 years.
3) He doesn't look for turnarounds. He buys management i.e. if he doesn't trust the management, he doesn't buy. He doesn't want to try to change the management. He wants a good and trustworthy management. Today, that criterion has eliminated HAFR, OCH, NBK, KQ, Sameer, Eveready, etc from my list.
4) Timing doesn't work for most people. We never get in at the lowest price nor get out at the highest price. Just get in when there's a discount. Socks or stocks are best bought at a discount. He isn't a seller so I don't know what he says about bailing out. Recently, he sold Tesco as well as shares in some oil firms.


Warren Buffet is the lucky star of a strong bull market in the USA since the 1982 low in the DOW. The prediction for that bull market is found in the 'Elliott Wave Principle: Key To Market Behaviour'. The guy is going to get hurt in the Bear that has started. Simply put, if you are long a market that is trending up, you win. Notice that Warren Buffet's holdings have been long term ( years on the long side). In a strong bull market the majority of stocks rise, so if you hold long enough you win. This is where the crazy idea of buying for the long term comes from.

Even people who bought Safaricom during the IPO and did not sell can be considered savvy investors taken from this perspective. Safcom has started a bear market (I discuss this in a post below). There are two scenarios for those who will hold through the bear. Either they get out at the depths of the bear and lose or they hold for years ahead and they both lose and win simultaneously. They lose because they could Take Profit now, enjoy the proceeds and use some of it to re-enter the market at a bottom. They win because Safcom is expected to rise multiple times the present value. This is where timing is of the essence i.e when do you buy, when do you sell. Elliott Wave Principle is valuable as a timing tool.

I am long I&M, WTK, KK & KenRe. Give me specifics. Dates & prices. If you are on the money, then I might start believing you. And throw some business your way.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mnandii
#962 Posted : Sunday, October 11, 2015 3:41:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


Safaricom Share Price.

Since Safaricom hit a high of 17.90 on 6th May, 2015, it fell in a leading diagonal structure making wave 'A'. We are currently in a wave 'B' correction which should end at about the 16/- level. Thereafter expect Safcom to drop below 10/-.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#963 Posted : Sunday, October 11, 2015 3:47:14 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
cnn wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Why are folks trying to 'time the market' ... Warren Buffett doesn't believe in timing the market as much as buying value & he has done very well. Timing the market is always attractive when looked at in hindsight.

He is good at what he knows best.We can't all be Warren Buffetts.One has to know what they are in the market for and try find their own best way in navigating it, to achieve their end.

WB advises us lesser mortals not to bother with timing the market. If WB with all his knowledge and market savvy (gathered over 70 years) cannot time the market, how can we? Food for thought.


I like the way he says it doesn't matter whether it's an election year or any other funny signs.
I'm being guided by my valuations.... But it's tempting to time, won't play that game this time round

Yes. WB looks at it from very interesting (& sensible) perspectives.
1) Don't just buy shares, buy a piece of the company i.e. would you buy the entire company at this price? If yes, buy. If no, then do not.
2) Buy shares in a company if you don't mind owning the shares if the market shuts down for 10 years. Even though I hope KK is taken over, I do not mind buying KK at 9/- to hold for the next 10 years.
3) He doesn't look for turnarounds. He buys management i.e. if he doesn't trust the management, he doesn't buy. He doesn't want to try to change the management. He wants a good and trustworthy management. Today, that criterion has eliminated HAFR, OCH, NBK, KQ, Sameer, Eveready, etc from my list.
4) Timing doesn't work for most people. We never get in at the lowest price nor get out at the highest price. Just get in when there's a discount. Socks or stocks are best bought at a discount. He isn't a seller so I don't know what he says about bailing out. Recently, he sold Tesco as well as shares in some oil firms.


Warren Buffet is the lucky star of a strong bull market in the USA since the 1982 low in the DOW. The prediction for that bull market is found in the 'Elliott Wave Principle: Key To Market Behaviour'. The guy is going to get hurt in the Bear that has started. Simply put, if you are long a market that is trending up, you win. Notice that Warren Buffet's holdings have been long term ( years on the long side). In a strong bull market the majority of stocks rise, so if you hold long enough you win. This is where the crazy idea of buying for the long term comes from.

Even people who bought Safaricom during the IPO and did not sell can be considered savvy investors taken from this perspective. Safcom has started a bear market (I discuss this in a post below). There are two scenarios for those who will hold through the bear. Either they get out at the depths of the bear and lose or they hold for years ahead and they both lose and win simultaneously. They lose because they could Take Profit now, enjoy the proceeds and use some of it to re-enter the market at a bottom. They win because Safcom is expected to rise multiple times the present value. This is where timing is of the essence i.e when do you buy, when do you sell. Elliott Wave Principle is valuable as a timing tool.

I am long I&M, WTK, KK & KenRe. Give me specifics. Dates & prices. If you are on the money, then I might start believing you. And throw some business your way.


@VVS bro, this is quite harsh. I was hoping I could at least convince you to consider a different and wonderful approach to looking at the markets but ....

Sad
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#964 Posted : Sunday, October 11, 2015 3:48:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Right click on image > 'Open Image In New Tab' to see the labels better.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#965 Posted : Sunday, October 11, 2015 4:05:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
We said it a long time back to expect financial difficulties and distress. The NSE 20 share Index has moved down in wave 1 (the first wave in a 5 wave series) and already the government is grappling with financial issues. Gosh, Socionomics is quite interesting. smile

Salaries crisis as counties, teachers await delayed cash



Quote:
Thousands of workers are yet to receive their September salaries as the government grapples with a cash crisis, which has raised tough questions about the state of fiscal management at the Treasury.

All 47 counties have been affected by the problem, which has also spread to several key institutions and programmes which have been starved of cash due to delays in disbursement of funds from the Treasury.


KRA has fallen short of its tax collection targets:

Quote:
The crisis was the subject of a meeting between Treasury PS Kamau Thugge and officials of the Kenya Revenue Authority, which has fallen short of its tax collection targets in the first quarter.


When the EURO bond was floated, we stated amidst strong opposition that the proceeds from the bond would NOT bring down interest rates. The fundamentalists had a field convincing us to expect manageable interest rate environment. Well, things are going haywire now.

Quote:
Low revenue collection, high interest rates which have depressed borrowing and diminished economic activity and an unfavourable exchange rate have been cited as the reasons the Treasury has run low on finances.



Quote:
MPs' SALARIES DELAYED

The Sunday Nation also confirmed that even Members of Parliament and parliamentary staff were affected as their September salaries were delayed.


link

As the Index probes below 3000 level soon expect even worse things. For one the conflict between the government and the opposition will intensify and will likely lead to violence. Some counties will consider seceding. Expect conflict between and amongst the religious groupings.

As companies issue profit warnings expect unemployment to rise.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
enyands
#966 Posted : Sunday, October 11, 2015 4:11:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
mnandii wrote:
We said it a long time back to expect financial difficulties and distress. The NSE 20 share Index has moved down in wave 1 (the first wave in a 5 wave series) and already the government is grappling with financial issues. Gosh, Socionomics is quite interesting. smile

Salaries crisis as counties, teachers await delayed cash



Quote:
Thousands of workers are yet to receive their September salaries as the government grapples with a cash crisis, which has raised tough questions about the state of fiscal management at the Treasury.

All 47 counties have been affected by the problem, which has also spread to several key institutions and programmes which have been starved of cash due to delays in disbursement of funds from the Treasury.


KRA has fallen short of its tax collection targets:

Quote:
The crisis was the subject of a meeting between Treasury PS Kamau Thugge and officials of the Kenya Revenue Authority, which has fallen short of its tax collection targets in the first quarter.


When the EURO bond was floated, we stated amidst strong opposition that the proceeds from the bond would NOT bring down interest rates. The fundamentalists had a field convincing us to expect manageable interest rate environment. Well, things are going haywire now.

Quote:
Low revenue collection, high interest rates which have depressed borrowing and diminished economic activity and an unfavourable exchange rate have been cited as the reasons the Treasury has run low on finances.



Quote:
MPs' SALARIES DELAYED

The Sunday Nation also confirmed that even Members of Parliament and parliamentary staff were affected as their September salaries were delayed.


link

As the Index probes below 3000 level soon expect even worse things. For one the conflict between the government and the opposition will intensify and will likely lead to violence. Some counties will consider seceding. Expect conflict between and amongst the religious groupings.

As companies issue profit warnings expect unemployment to rise.



This is bad news to read on Sunday morning about here kenya . But anyway we will tighten our belt and " we will pull through "
mnandii
#967 Posted : Sunday, October 11, 2015 4:30:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
USDKES

We posted this chart of USDKES back when the pair was rising above 100 level and stated clearly that we don't expect the 106.80 level to be violated.



Well, so far the level has maintained. Wave 2 peaked at 106.70. Shown below:



While it is still early to declare a tradeable top, action in shorter Time Frames (15 min) show impulsive drop which is consistent with expectation once a corrective wave completes. I'll post a short term price chart later. My expectation now is for the pair to continue falling toward 100/- and slightly below before it effects a corrective rise below 106.70.

In this case we only used one basic Elliott wave Rule as depicted below for a bull market:



Image credit: Elliott Wave International.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#968 Posted : Sunday, October 11, 2015 4:31:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
enyands wrote:
mnandii wrote:
We said it a long time back to expect financial difficulties and distress. The NSE 20 share Index has moved down in wave 1 (the first wave in a 5 wave series) and already the government is grappling with financial issues. Gosh, Socionomics is quite interesting. smile

Salaries crisis as counties, teachers await delayed cash



Quote:
Thousands of workers are yet to receive their September salaries as the government grapples with a cash crisis, which has raised tough questions about the state of fiscal management at the Treasury.

All 47 counties have been affected by the problem, which has also spread to several key institutions and programmes which have been starved of cash due to delays in disbursement of funds from the Treasury.


KRA has fallen short of its tax collection targets:

Quote:
The crisis was the subject of a meeting between Treasury PS Kamau Thugge and officials of the Kenya Revenue Authority, which has fallen short of its tax collection targets in the first quarter.


When the EURO bond was floated, we stated amidst strong opposition that the proceeds from the bond would NOT bring down interest rates. The fundamentalists had a field convincing us to expect manageable interest rate environment. Well, things are going haywire now.

Quote:
Low revenue collection, high interest rates which have depressed borrowing and diminished economic activity and an unfavourable exchange rate have been cited as the reasons the Treasury has run low on finances.



Quote:
MPs' SALARIES DELAYED

The Sunday Nation also confirmed that even Members of Parliament and parliamentary staff were affected as their September salaries were delayed.


link

As the Index probes below 3000 level soon expect even worse things. For one the conflict between the government and the opposition will intensify and will likely lead to violence. Some counties will consider seceding. Expect conflict between and amongst the religious groupings.

As companies issue profit warnings expect unemployment to rise.



This is bad news to read on Sunday morning about here kenya . But anyway we will tighten our belt and " we will pull through "


Yes. We tighten belt and keep HARD CASH.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
VituVingiSana
#969 Posted : Sunday, October 11, 2015 8:27:13 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,124
Location: Nairobi
mnandii wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mnandii wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
cnn wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Why are folks trying to 'time the market' ... Warren Buffett doesn't believe in timing the market as much as buying value & he has done very well. Timing the market is always attractive when looked at in hindsight.

He is good at what he knows best.We can't all be Warren Buffetts.One has to know what they are in the market for and try find their own best way in navigating it, to achieve their end.

WB advises us lesser mortals not to bother with timing the market. If WB with all his knowledge and market savvy (gathered over 70 years) cannot time the market, how can we? Food for thought.


I like the way he says it doesn't matter whether it's an election year or any other funny signs.
I'm being guided by my valuations.... But it's tempting to time, won't play that game this time round

Yes. WB looks at it from very interesting (& sensible) perspectives.
1) Don't just buy shares, buy a piece of the company i.e. would you buy the entire company at this price? If yes, buy. If no, then do not.
2) Buy shares in a company if you don't mind owning the shares if the market shuts down for 10 years. Even though I hope KK is taken over, I do not mind buying KK at 9/- to hold for the next 10 years.
3) He doesn't look for turnarounds. He buys management i.e. if he doesn't trust the management, he doesn't buy. He doesn't want to try to change the management. He wants a good and trustworthy management. Today, that criterion has eliminated HAFR, OCH, NBK, KQ, Sameer, Eveready, etc from my list.
4) Timing doesn't work for most people. We never get in at the lowest price nor get out at the highest price. Just get in when there's a discount. Socks or stocks are best bought at a discount. He isn't a seller so I don't know what he says about bailing out. Recently, he sold Tesco as well as shares in some oil firms.


Warren Buffet is the lucky star of a strong bull market in the USA since the 1982 low in the DOW. The prediction for that bull market is found in the 'Elliott Wave Principle: Key To Market Behaviour'. The guy is going to get hurt in the Bear that has started. Simply put, if you are long a market that is trending up, you win. Notice that Warren Buffet's holdings have been long term ( years on the long side). In a strong bull market the majority of stocks rise, so if you hold long enough you win. This is where the crazy idea of buying for the long term comes from.

Even people who bought Safaricom during the IPO and did not sell can be considered savvy investors taken from this perspective. Safcom has started a bear market (I discuss this in a post below). There are two scenarios for those who will hold through the bear. Either they get out at the depths of the bear and lose or they hold for years ahead and they both lose and win simultaneously. They lose because they could Take Profit now, enjoy the proceeds and use some of it to re-enter the market at a bottom. They win because Safcom is expected to rise multiple times the present value. This is where timing is of the essence i.e when do you buy, when do you sell. Elliott Wave Principle is valuable as a timing tool.

I am long I&M, WTK, KK & KenRe. Give me specifics. Dates & prices. If you are on the money, then I might start believing you. And throw some business your way.


@VVS bro, this is quite harsh. I was hoping I could at least convince you to consider a different and wonderful approach to looking at the markets but ....

Sad

@mnandii - Unlike many, I am offering a chance for you to make real money. If you give me specifics on those 4 counters and I see you are right... I will get on board. And I am not looking for freebies. If your initial advice works, I am willing to pay for performance.

I have done relatively well based on the Buy & Hold [not to be done blindly] using WB's advice/methods. I have learnt from him [& experience] that one should not invest when shady chaps run the firm no matter how good/cheap it looks e.g. Olympia, Sameer, KQ, etc. That includes most GoK controlled firms. My only GoK holding is KenRe & a few 'old' KPLC.

WB likes cash-rich firms [or firms that use debt very effectively] e.g.
- Unga which has reduced its Debt-Equity over time even with the recent Ennsvalley purchase. Most of the debt finances current assets eg inventory.
- KK (post-Segman) which has aggressively reduced naked $ debt & KES loans. Most of the debt finances current assets eg inventory.
- Williamson which has a lot of cash & paid 40/- as a dividend last year.
- Jubilee [effective use of float & why I like KenRe even though it's GoK controlled]
- Many banks. I picked I&M coz it is cheap on a PER basis, is conservative (low NPLs) & PAT growth is at least +15%.

[The above are HISTORIC purchases at lower prices except KK and some I&M. I was going to bail out of KK but stayed in as I saw progress by Ohana. Plus Ohana hinted at the AGM that interest has been shown in KK's assets by foreign buyers.]

I am scared of KenGen [huge debt load but most assets can't be easily sold to generate cash], KQ and EAPCC.
ARM has made effective use of debt BUT I will not buy ARM at these prices coz of USD debt & the high Debt:Equity ratio.
No to NBK with fake low levels of NPLs, and it has effectively breached CBK Capital Ratios. Add GoK control.

If you choose to take up the challenge, let's do this in a new thread topic so we can stick to the 4 stocks [KK, KenRe, I&M & WTK] and are easier to keep track of. Pay for performance!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sl8r
#970 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 12:57:08 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 5/20/2010
Posts: 69
mnandii wrote:
The Expanded Flat Wave 2 in the NSE 20 Share Index



After hitting a low of 4080.83, the Index rose in a clear three wave pattern making 'blue' wave [ a ]. The wave [ a ] is composed of waves (a) (b) and (c). Notice that wave (c) subdivides into five waves as expected of C waves (i.e Up, Down, Up, Down and a final Up move).

'Blue' wave [ b ] is also a three wave affair upto the 4017.34 low. I expect the Index to start rising imediately towards the area marked 'Target' before falling strongly in wave 3.

In an Expanded flat we expect wave [ b ] to end once wave [ b ] is 1.236 X Wave [ a ]. The extreme for wave [ b ] can be 1.382 X wave [ a ]. Below we check if this guideline has been followed.

Wave [ a ] = (4257.27 - 4080.83) = 176.44

1.236 X wave [ a ] = (1.236 X 176.44) = 218.08

1.382 X wave [ a ] = (1.382 X 176.44) = 243.84

Subtracting the above two values from 4257.27 (the end of wave [ a ] ) we'll be able to get the range for the expected end of wave [ b ]. Thus:

(4257.27 - 218.08) = 4039.19

(4257.27 - 243.84) = 4013.43

So at 4017.34 (as on 9th October, 2015) is well within the range for wave [ b ]. This is the reason why I expect the Index to start rising immediately from 12th October.


Using 4017.34 as the end of wave [ b ] we can target the end of 'blue' wave [ c ] which will also mark the end of 'green' wave 2.

[ c ] waves of flats are usually Equal to wave [ a ]; 1.618 X wave [ a ]; Twice wave [ a ] or 2.618 x wave [ a ]. Once we get these values we add them to 4017.34 (our likely end of wave [ b ] to get the end of wave [ c ].

Targets:

1. (4017.34 + (1 X 176.44)) = 4193.78

2. (4017.34 + (1.618 X 176.)) = 4302.82

3. (4017.34 + (2 X 176.44)) = 4370.22

4. (4017.34 + (2.618 X 176.44)) = 4479.26

Option 4 is very likely since that level would also meet the guideline of depth of corrective waves. i.e that is the area of the previous fourth wave (wave [ iv ]) stated as: Corrections tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree, most commonly near the level of its terminus.

Summary:


NSE 20 share Index should rise immediately to about 4500 and then drop dramatically.


@mnandii Im watching very very closely! a lot of thought was put into this analysis, im also trying to study elliott wave theory, its refreshing to see what im learning being applied, Laughing out loudly thanks for the post! just learned a LOT!! smile
Spikes
#971 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 3:04:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
Today sub 4000 NSE index is inevitable.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
mic_mic
#972 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 3:11:59 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/30/2012
Posts: 545
Location: NBI
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom Share Price.

Since Safaricom hit a high of 17.90 on 6th May, 2015, it fell in a leading diagonal structure making wave 'A'. We are currently in a wave 'B' correction which should end at about the 16/- level. Thereafter expect Safcom to drop below 10/-.



Can you share a chart of this please?
BITCOIN TRADERS KENYA Whatsapp group +254 705 299 429
mnandii
#973 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 3:40:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
sl8r wrote:
mnandii wrote:
The Expanded Flat Wave 2 in the NSE 20 Share Index



After hitting a low of 4080.83, the Index rose in a clear three wave pattern making 'blue' wave [ a ]. The wave [ a ] is composed of waves (a) (b) and (c). Notice that wave (c) subdivides into five waves as expected of C waves (i.e Up, Down, Up, Down and a final Up move).

'Blue' wave [ b ] is also a three wave affair upto the 4017.34 low. I expect the Index to start rising imediately towards the area marked 'Target' before falling strongly in wave 3.

In an Expanded flat we expect wave [ b ] to end once wave [ b ] is 1.236 X Wave [ a ]. The extreme for wave [ b ] can be 1.382 X wave [ a ]. Below we check if this guideline has been followed.

Wave [ a ] = (4257.27 - 4080.83) = 176.44

1.236 X wave [ a ] = (1.236 X 176.44) = 218.08

1.382 X wave [ a ] = (1.382 X 176.44) = 243.84

Subtracting the above two values from 4257.27 (the end of wave [ a ] ) we'll be able to get the range for the expected end of wave [ b ]. Thus:

(4257.27 - 218.08) = 4039.19

(4257.27 - 243.84) = 4013.43

So at 4017.34 (as on 9th October, 2015) is well within the range for wave [ b ]. This is the reason why I expect the Index to start rising immediately from 12th October.


Using 4017.34 as the end of wave [ b ] we can target the end of 'blue' wave [ c ] which will also mark the end of 'green' wave 2.

[ c ] waves of flats are usually Equal to wave [ a ]; 1.618 X wave [ a ]; Twice wave [ a ] or 2.618 x wave [ a ]. Once we get these values we add them to 4017.34 (our likely end of wave [ b ] to get the end of wave [ c ].

Targets:

1. (4017.34 + (1 X 176.44)) = 4193.78

2. (4017.34 + (1.618 X 176.)) = 4302.82

3. (4017.34 + (2 X 176.44)) = 4370.22

4. (4017.34 + (2.618 X 176.44)) = 4479.26

Option 4 is very likely since that level would also meet the guideline of depth of corrective waves. i.e that is the area of the previous fourth wave (wave [ iv ]) stated as: Corrections tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree, most commonly near the level of its terminus.

Summary:


NSE 20 share Index should rise immediately to about 4500 and then drop dramatically.


@mnandii Im watching very very closely! a lot of thought was put into this analysis, im also trying to study elliott wave theory, its refreshing to see what im learning being applied, Laughing out loudly thanks for the post! just learned a LOT!! smile


Welcome. smile There is alot of free materials on Elliott Waves on the internet as well as @ www.elliottwave.com


Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#974 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 3:45:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mic_mic wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom Share Price.

Since Safaricom hit a high of 17.90 on 6th May, 2015, it fell in a leading diagonal structure making wave 'A'. We are currently in a wave 'B' correction which should end at about the 16/- level. Thereafter expect Safcom to drop below 10/-.



Can you share a chart of this please?


Hi. This is a chart from ft.com. I basically copy the image and work on it in my computer. If you 'right click' on it you can 'download' it or 'open in New Tab'. Hope that helps.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#975 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 3:47:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Spikes wrote:
Today sub 4000 NSE index is inevitable.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
S.Mutaga III
#976 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 4:02:09 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
My dream bear market is when I can get KCB, BAT and Safaricom at rock bottom prices. These are my dream stocks...sadly, they arent coming down to my expectations. Throw in Jubilee and you have a killer portfolio.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
heri
#977 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 4:13:08 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 834
Location: nairobi
S.Mutaga III wrote:
My dream bear market is when I can get KCB, BAT and Safaricom at rock bottom prices. These are my dream stocks...sadly, they arent coming down to my expectations. Throw in Jubilee and you have a killer portfolio.


Safaricom is what i have been eyeing. But now with mnandii saying that safcom might go below 10, am wondering what price to get in
S.Mutaga III
#978 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 4:22:46 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
heri wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
My dream bear market is when I can get KCB, BAT and Safaricom at rock bottom prices. These are my dream stocks...sadly, they arent coming down to my expectations. Throw in Jubilee and you have a killer portfolio.


Safaricom is what i have been eyeing. But now with mnandii saying that safcom might go below 10, am wondering what price to get in

If these four counters reach prices that reflect the exact PE levels these companies traded during the end of the bear market in 2011, I will invest half my networth in them. They say, when it rains gold, use the biggest bucket.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
littledove
#979 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 4:37:33 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 903
Location: sky
Spikes wrote:
Today sub 4000 NSE index is inevitable.

nse index closes at 3991
There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
heri
#980 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2015 4:50:03 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 834
Location: nairobi
S.Mutaga III wrote:
heri wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
My dream bear market is when I can get KCB, BAT and Safaricom at rock bottom prices. These are my dream stocks...sadly, they arent coming down to my expectations. Throw in Jubilee and you have a killer portfolio.


Safaricom is what i have been eyeing. But now with mnandii saying that safcom might go below 10, am wondering what price to get in

If these four counters reach prices that reflect the exact PE levels these companies traded during the end of the bear market in 2011, I will invest half my networth in them. They say, when it rains gold, use the biggest bucket.


What prices and PE levels are those? Please share. I am very keen on jubilee and safcom as well
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