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Kengen HY 2015 results PAT up 400%
Muthawamunene
#101 Posted : Monday, October 05, 2015 8:58:48 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi



We import power FROM Uganda. We export power TO Uganda.

This merry-go-round is mind boggling to me. If a country has the need to import power, why does it export it?

Anywho, its good news.
kawi254
#102 Posted : Monday, October 05, 2015 9:46:02 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2015
Posts: 467
Location: Nairobi
Not all border towns in Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia can be connected to respective National grids - e.g Moyale Kenya is so far from Kenya's grid and does not make economic sense to connect it so better to connect it to Ethiopia's grid that is present in Moyale Ethiopia - so the import/export 'merry go round' will continue. Planned interconnection of National grids of Tanzania to Kenya and Ethiopia and Kenya will help in trade of power...which is a good thing for regional economies
iris
#103 Posted : Monday, October 05, 2015 10:12:54 AM
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Joined: 9/11/2014
Posts: 228
Location: Nairobi
Power cannot be stored to be used later (except for hydro, where you store water). So when Kenya is generating more than it needs and Uganda has a deficit, power will flow to Uganda, making Kenya an exporter. When the reverse happens, Kenya gets power from Uganda. In fact Kenya is still a net importer from Uganda according to the link posted above because we imported 31.05 KWh and exported 25.33 KWh. The positive is that the imported power reduced.
sorovi
#104 Posted : Monday, October 05, 2015 10:36:26 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/3/2007
Posts: 146
iris wrote:
Power cannot be stored to be used later (except for hydro, where you store water). So when Kenya is generating more than it needs and Uganda has a deficit, power will flow to Uganda, making Kenya an exporter. When the reverse happens, Kenya gets power from Uganda. In fact Kenya is still a net importer from Uganda according to the link posted above because we imported 31.05 KWh and exported 25.33 KWh. The positive is that the imported power reduced.


Actually this makes sense and it's economical to do that ;)
VituVingiSana
#105 Posted : Monday, October 05, 2015 6:15:23 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Muthawamunene wrote:



We import power FROM Uganda. We export power TO Uganda.

This merry-go-round is mind boggling to me. If a country has the need to import power, why does it export it?

Anywho, its good news.

Let's use the example of the milk powder store of a well-managed milk processing plant.

When there's extra fresh milk, they turn it into milk powder & store it. When there's a shortage of fresh milk, they reconstitute it back into 'milk' therefore there's always a movement of milk powder in/out of the store.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
murchr
#106 Posted : Monday, October 05, 2015 6:59:31 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Guess work informs me that......If/when renewable energy power will be over supplied (which I don't see it being soon)...thermal plants can/will be shut off. 2. Electricity from dams can be stored..ie.store water in reservoirs and allow water to run when there's more demand. Lets not assume that we'll be the first to experience a glut.

Look, if/when power gets cheaper its almost certain that wanjiku gets inspired to acquire more gadgets eg fans/ACs for those living in Kisumu Coast Garisa and other hot areas, bigger TVs fridges electric cookers etc for the middle class, cheap power should also attract more power guzzlers

From the internet
Quote:
Many renewable energy sources (most notably solar and wind) produce intermittent power. Wherever intermittent power sources reach high levels of grid penetration, energy storage becomes one option to provide reliable energy supplies. Individual energy storage projects augment electrical grids by capturing excess electrical energy during periods of low demand and storing it in other forms until needed on an electrical grid. The energy is later converted back to its electrical form and returned to the grid as needed.

Common forms of renewable energy storage include hydroelectric dams including pumped-storage hydroelectricity, which has long maintained the largest total capacity of stored energy worldwide, as well as rechargeable battery systems, thermal energy storage including molten salts which can efficiently store and release very large quantities of heat energy, and compressed air energy storage. Less common, specialized forms of storage include flywheel energy storage systems, the use of cryogenic stored energy, and even superconducting magnetic coils.

Other options include recourse to peaking power plants that utilize a power-to-gas methane creation and storage process (where excess electricity is converted to hydrogen via electrolysis, combined with CO2 (low to neutral CO2 system) to produce methane (synthetic natural gas via the sabatier process) with stockage in the natural gas network)and smart grids
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
murchr
#107 Posted : Monday, October 05, 2015 8:04:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Another response from the net

Quote:


I work in the subject, and I think I can be of help explaining this.

I'll explain it using the water analogy:

Electric current flow -> Water flow

Voltage -> pressure

Said this,

If you have a network with nodes, and branches; the nodes are where the water is injected and subtracted from the network, and the branches are the pipes.

(In electrical grids, the pipes are transformers and lines, while the nodes are the nodes or busbars)

If you have "water" injection in a node that originally was designed for consumption, then the pressure in the pipes might increase up to a level where the pipes break. (This would be solar production at household level) The same way, too much consumption at a node might lower the pipes pressure too much and the system will not work.

The way of dealing with this is to store the surplus of energy and supply it when needed, that is why batteries are the holly grail of renewables.


Huge renewable penetration is a situation that grid operators and electrical companies are against because it forces them to adopt new approaches to a job they've been doing for a century with few radical changes like the ones they need to make. (My opinion)

I hope this is clear enough, otherwise I can explain things further since this is my daily work.

[EDIT: Why do the pipes break?]

Well as you requested, I'll go a bit more in detail here:

Each branch element (lines & transformers) has a limit in the amount of current can go though it without overheating and set on fire. This nominal current can be overpassed for a limited amount of time, so an overload is not a life or death event, if it does not last too long (Also overloads diminish the elements life)

On the other hand, the voltage should be within a +-5% of the nominal voltage of a node, this is 230V +-5% per phase (In Europe, in US is 125?). Generating power in a node increases the voltage in that node and in the neighbour nodes (For the same load situation) Increment in demand in a node decreases the voltage in that node and its neighbours). This is why if I put a massive amount of solar panels at home I might get voltage issues at my house and at my neighbours houses. This issue can be mitigated by proper inverter firmware programming, but there is no regulation on that in many countries, so there are this problems people haven't heard about but are very real.

But why does the voltage has to be in such a limit? Well this limits is a security constraint set by grid operators. If the voltage in the sockets of your house is too high it might break the power electronics of your devices (PC's TV, etc..) if the voltage is is too low, electronic devices might not work or even break as well. An incandescent light bulb shines brighter on high voltage, and less brighter on lower voltage.

Tell me if more details are needed. Santi.


Am sure we have electric engineers here they may explain better
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
muandiwambeu
#108 Posted : Tuesday, October 06, 2015 12:40:23 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
To understand matters of power differentiate the following components and then localize it to kengen/kenya's scenario. 1. Power source, 2. Power production technology, 3. Electric power. The reason why u produce and how to distribute eff. is kplc's main headache.
For kengen thus said:
1. Power sources are
a. Hydropower. Can be stored so long as the threshold effective production ranges are observed. Ie. There is margin between minimum dam heig depth/altitude n minimum power uptake n maximum installed capacity vv demanded power
B. Geothermal power. As for Hydro however in other context it's steadier n not so sensitive to weather parterns
C. Hydrocarbon(gas, diesel.... .) Ditto to a n b but insignificant sensitivity to weather cycles
D. Wind and solar. Difficult to store the power sources and varies wildly in a days cycle though cheap
... Other power sources are insignificant in kengen case n do not count
2. Production technology.
This highly depends on the powering medium. Ie power source. However the chosen tech suffer challenges as regards demand cycles n thus enabling storage or limiting it or impending storage of the power source.
Eg.
Water must flow thro a turbine for power production. Below a certain level effective turbine dynamics are unsustainable and production must be stopped.
Gas already burnt in a turbine has to be expelled with or without powering the grids
For this fora technology is irrelevant and a sunk cost
3.electric power. Yes, Power producers ultimate goal. Once produced it must be consumed then n there. Use may be constructive or destructive. If over destructive. If under destructive or in effective. So much production and consumption is so critical that without it u better not be in the biz of power matters. Large scale power storage is possible tho not popular and not efficient. In kengen case storage is not a priority for now considering integrated EA scenario is excess production in one country coincides with related excess dd in another, ie variant whether cycles for heavily hero power (weather sensitive) dependent economies:-regional economies as well.
All in all large scale power storage is costly.
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
MaichBlack
#109 Posted : Tuesday, October 06, 2015 6:14:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,460
Muthawamunene wrote:



We import power FROM Uganda. We export power TO Uganda.

This merry-go-round is mind boggling to me. If a country has the need to import power, why does it export it?

Anywho, its good news.

We don't import power from because of power shortage. It is due to infrastructure issues. Some areas are not connected to the National Grid and it is easier and cheaper at the moment to have then served by power from neighbouring countries. The same way you buy Tuzo and Daima in Nairobbery yet you have grade cows back in Shagz!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
iris
#110 Posted : Tuesday, October 06, 2015 6:43:27 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/11/2014
Posts: 228
Location: Nairobi
Not entirely correct: remember the connection (for example) between Kenya and Uganda is high voltage (132KV) and can therefore not supply any consumers directly. It goes to substations and gets step downed to distribution voltages. The infrastructure part though is a fair point because as @VVS said, a glut of generated power has to go somewhere before the generators react or get shut down in an orderly fashion.

As for the debate about grid power storage, my contribution is that it is safe to assume in Kenya and East Africa, we do not yet have any serious storage facilities. For our traditional utilities (Kengen, KPLC), there is probably none. The only one that I heard of is what @VVS posted a link to (Powerhive?) which is using solar to supply rural households in Kisii and therefore must have reasonable storage. For large scale, we probably are waiting for Tesla..
VituVingiSana
#111 Posted : Tuesday, October 06, 2015 7:34:26 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
Muthawamunene wrote:



We import power FROM Uganda. We export power TO Uganda.

This merry-go-round is mind boggling to me. If a country has the need to import power, why does it export it?

Anywho, its good news.

We don't import power from because of power shortage. It is due to infrastructure issues. Some areas are not connected to the National Grid and it is easier and cheaper at the moment to have then served by power from neighbouring countries. The same way you buy Tuzo and Daima in Nairobbery yet you have grade cows back in Shagz!!!

That is a great example. Your have cows in shagz producing quality 'thick' milk yet you buy watered down Daima & Tuzo in Nairobi.

Brookside has the 'distribution' channels to buy YOUR raw milk in Molo at 40/- per liter then process, remove the fat & cream, pack and send it to Nakumatt where you buy it at 80/- per liter. Of course, the fat/cream is converted to butter which you buy kando too.

You could have someone shuttle 10 liters to your house daily from Molo but that doesn't make financial sense.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#112 Posted : Wednesday, October 07, 2015 1:51:50 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
The recent blackout in Nairobi is a great lesson on why PRODUCTION can exceed CONSUMPTION when the TRANSMISSION and DISTRIBUTION are not up to par.

http://www.businessdaily...4/-/90cjoh/-/index.html

Massive under-investment spanning decades [since the Moi Error] means Kenya's grid is weak and cannot support increased production/generation of power that needs to be transported & distributed over long distances.

Electrical power is transported at very high voltages & needs to be stepped down even when it gets to industrial users. Illegal connections feeding off transformers make things worse. Vandalism doesn't help either.

As a country, we need the entire system strengthened not just increased generation.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
murchr
#113 Posted : Wednesday, October 07, 2015 3:35:01 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
VituVingiSana wrote:
The recent blackout in Nairobi is a great lesson on why PRODUCTION can exceed CONSUMPTION when the TRANSMISSION and DISTRIBUTION are not up to par.

http://www.businessdaily...4/-/90cjoh/-/index.html

Massive under-investment spanning decades [since the Moi Error] means Kenya's grid is weak and cannot support increased production/generation of power that needs to be transported & distributed over long distances.

Electrical power is transported at very high voltages & needs to be stepped down even when it gets to industrial users. Illegal connections feeding off transformers make things worse. Vandalism doesn't help either.

As a country, we need the entire system strengthened not just increased generation.


Nowhere in that article has the writer mentioned anything to do with over supply affecting the "aging grid" which apparently is being upgraded by some Swiss company.


"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
VituVingiSana
#114 Posted : Wednesday, October 07, 2015 6:59:22 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
The recent blackout in Nairobi is a great lesson on why PRODUCTION can exceed CONSUMPTION when the TRANSMISSION and DISTRIBUTION are not up to par.

http://www.businessdaily...4/-/90cjoh/-/index.html

Massive under-investment spanning decades [since the Moi Error] means Kenya's grid is weak and cannot support increased production/generation of power that needs to be transported & distributed over long distances.

Electrical power is transported at very high voltages & needs to be stepped down even when it gets to industrial users. Illegal connections feeding off transformers make things worse. Vandalism doesn't help either.

As a country, we need the entire system strengthened not just increased generation.


Nowhere in that article has the writer mentioned anything to do with over supply affecting the "aging grid" which apparently is being upgraded by some Swiss company.


Supply doesn't affect a grid. The quality of a grid affects the ability to transport power from the source to the consumer. Why do you think 'over supply' affects an 'aging grid'?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#115 Posted : Wednesday, October 07, 2015 7:01:10 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
On batteries/storage from Tesla http://footprint2africa....e-africas-energy-supply/
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
murchr
#116 Posted : Wednesday, October 07, 2015 2:38:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
VituVingiSana wrote:
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
The recent blackout in Nairobi is a great lesson on why PRODUCTION can exceed CONSUMPTION when the TRANSMISSION and DISTRIBUTION are not up to par.

http://www.businessdaily...4/-/90cjoh/-/index.html

Massive under-investment spanning decades [since the Moi Error] means Kenya's grid is weak and cannot support increased production/generation of power that needs to be transported & distributed over long distances.

Electrical power is transported at very high voltages & needs to be stepped down even when it gets to industrial users. Illegal connections feeding off transformers make things worse. Vandalism doesn't help either.

As a country, we need the entire system strengthened not just increased generation.


Nowhere in that article has the writer mentioned anything to do with over supply affecting the "aging grid" which apparently is being upgraded by some Swiss company.


Supply doesn't affect a grid. The quality of a grid affects the ability to transport power from the source to the consumer. Why do you think 'over supply' affects an 'aging grid'?


Overload is more like it. Supply is totally different. The writer makes it look like Juja is the only substation, yet there are others...lessos, Tala etc. The Juja station is old yes and indeed it needs rehabilitation, but a power fault could be caused by lightening (expect many of those in the coming days), power surge...etc
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Othelo
#117 Posted : Wednesday, October 07, 2015 3:56:05 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
How then do we reconcile persistent backouts that occur hapa mashinani......... sometimes lasting whole days on end / almost feels like rationing!
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
instinct
#118 Posted : Wednesday, October 07, 2015 5:50:19 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
Othelo wrote:
How then do we reconcile persistent backouts that occur hapa mashinani......... sometimes lasting whole days on end / almost feels like rationing!


My view is that KPLCs current problem is an architecture/design of its network. We're connecting too much load all over without a redesign of the trunk lines to manage the extra power being pushed through them. We're almost at South African level of chaos. Meanwhile KPLC and Kengen management are preoccupied with tendering. Wait till the rains fall and chickens will come home to roost. Power blackouts lasting days as they firefight outages all over.
VituVingiSana
#119 Posted : Thursday, October 08, 2015 2:56:52 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
instinct wrote:
Othelo wrote:
How then do we reconcile persistent backouts that occur hapa mashinani......... sometimes lasting whole days on end / almost feels like rationing!


My view is that KPLCs current problem is an architecture/design of its network. We're connecting too much load all over without a redesign of the trunk lines to manage the extra power being pushed through them. We're almost at South African level of chaos. Meanwhile KPLC and Kengen management are preoccupied with tendering. Wait till the rains fall and chickens will come home to roost. Power blackouts lasting days as they firefight outages all over.

Electrical grids need to be 'balanced' and designing a grid is quite complex especially when KPLC has to deal with an existing grid and customers. KPLC can't shut down a grid for months to install or re-route a line. Transformers need to be upgraded whenever there's new construction. As flats replace houses, the demand for electricity on a transformer increases as does the pressure on the lines that supply the transformers.

Estates/projects like Tatu City will benefit from a brand-new grid that is designed with the project in mind.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
muandiwambeu
#120 Posted : Thursday, October 08, 2015 7:34:55 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
Kengen growth is tied at the hip with Kenya economic growth booms and bursts cycles by design/default. Therefore, kengen is analogous to a terminally ill bed ridden or an infant tax payer paying taxes on the medical bills to improve health care when it's clear death will come beckoning before the tax is counted .Every year machines systems, grids and new power sources will be sought and be dropped to feed an ogre called e_con relegating kengen to fortune of economy performance. Once the e_con has plateaued, the Capex hungry kengen dream team will be left with issues of efficiencies and not effectiveness. that time kengen may cease to be a strategic gova's asset and shareholders will enjoy. So, when will Capex demand for kengen be rivaled by its earnings and spare some profit reserves enough to excite the market and spare us the lurking worry of capital demand inform of rit issues? When will that be? Is it 1, 2,3yrs or 10, 20---or say 100yrs? The closet someone has in attempting to answer that is in vision 2030 dream team. Where r kebatis to tells us how r we faring on this front? Do we have electric guzzlers like magnelev or bullet trains or electric/hybrid cars in our country so that we construct a few if not many nuclear powered plants and altogether ditch hydropowered plants since they are ineffective or a nema/ environmentalists guys have done environmental audit and condemned dams and there construction? How many silicone valleys or Tatu cities or how you power dependent institutions like military installations so far r in our economy. These of course will come n demand power. Decommissioning will probably be at a hefty cost so is nukes and that ultimately will require cash strapped kengen to Cash call. Actually for kengen it's a cash call since growth will catch kengen struggling between div. payout to please thirsty shareholders and the planners will always lag behind to keep their job skills relevant. If your not a hopeful of a middle economy or middle lyf economy you may as well not be a hopeful of kengen. Harvest time will come. Yes. By end of maturity or by cycles.
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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