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Bear 2015 Wish List
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Afroblk wrote:I'm loving the bear...but it's not gonna last long...and so...one of my bond matured and here's how I'm re-investing the proceeds and take advantage of the bear starting tomorrow until I get all shares as planned, hopefully by 15 Oct. I'll be adding three new counters to my portfolio i.e. Centum, ARM and HFCK. I already have significant KQ and Britam but will be adding some more to average down.
Entry point (9/29/15-10/15/15)
KQ-18,000 @5.5
Britam-8,800 @17
HFCK-6,500 @23
ARM-6000 @42
Centum-5,700 @52
My target exit point is on or around 15 Sep 16 (1 yr from today) and targeting the following returns;
KQ-@9.00
Britam-@36
HFCK-@55
ARM-@92
Centum-@85
As you can see, if all plays and goes well of which I think most companies will do well 1&2 Qtrs then I'm looking at aprx 100% return in profits (Ksh0.9M) calculation based on ex div. I've factored in 100k in est broker fees.
I'll revisit this thread in Aug-Sep 2016 when I'm offloading.
Good Luck! I sincerely hope you have aligned your investment strategy to your risk appetite. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Afroblk wrote:I'm loving the bear...but it's not gonna last long...and so...one of my bond matured and here's how I'm re-investing the proceeds and take advantage of the bear starting tomorrow until I get all shares as planned, hopefully by 15 Oct. I'll be adding three new counters to my portfolio i.e. Centum, ARM and HFCK. I already have significant KQ and Britam but will be adding some more to average down.
Entry point (9/29/15-10/15/15)
KQ-18,000 @5.5
Britam-8,800 @17
HFCK-6,500 @23
ARM-6000 @42
Centum-5,700 @52
My target exit point is on or around 15 Sep 16 (1 yr from today) and targeting the following returns;
KQ-@9.00
Britam-@36
HFCK-@55
ARM-@92
Centum-@85
As you can see, if all plays and goes well of which I think most companies will do well 1&2 Qtrs then I'm looking at aprx 100% return in profits (Ksh0.9M) calculation based on ex div. I've factored in 100k in est broker fees.
I'll revisit this thread in Aug-Sep 2016 when I'm offloading.
Good Luck! Too early to take positions, unless if you are getting into the defensive stocks with a focus on dividends. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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Museveni wrote:Aguytrying wrote:The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve. Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre. In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round. Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now. STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7 CURRENT PRICE
EQUITY 4.63 25-33 44.75
KCB 5.63 30-40 45.00
NIC 7.07 38-49 41.75
NSE 2.13 12-15 20.75
DTB 21.92 120-154 200.00
HFCK 2.75 15-20 21.75
JUBILEE 48 264-340 508.00
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43 62.00
SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE) 14.65
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely) 143.00
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS) 28.75
BAMBURI 9.80 98-130 166.00
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE) 9.00
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE) 266.00
ARM 3.01 30-45 39.75
BAT 42.55 300-450 758.00
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21 62.50
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7 7.00
BOC 11.76 65-85 112.00 Updating the current prices as of today
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@snipermnoma. Awesome work, the list remains relevant, the prices were so high but now bargains creeping into the list slowly. currently Nic and ARM in the zone. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/31/2007 Posts: 303
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lochaz-index wrote:Afroblk wrote:I'm loving the bear...but it's not gonna last long...and so...one of my bond matured and here's how I'm re-investing the proceeds and take advantage of the bear starting tomorrow until I get all shares as planned, hopefully by 15 Oct. I'll be adding three new counters to my portfolio i.e. Centum, ARM and HFCK. I already have significant KQ and Britam but will be adding some more to average down.
Entry point (9/29/15-10/15/15)
KQ-18,000 @5.5
Britam-8,800 @17
HFCK-6,500 @23
ARM-6000 @42
Centum-5,700 @52
My target exit point is on or around 15 Sep 16 (1 yr from today) and targeting the following returns;
KQ-@9.00
Britam-@36
HFCK-@55
ARM-@92
Centum-@85
As you can see, if all plays and goes well of which I think most companies will do well 1&2 Qtrs then I'm looking at aprx 100% return in profits (Ksh0.9M) calculation based on ex div. I've factored in 100k in est broker fees.
I'll revisit this thread in Aug-Sep 2016 when I'm offloading.
Good Luck! I sincerely hope you have aligned your investment strategy to your risk appetite. Exit prices of Britam,HFCK,ARM and Centum appear grossly optimistic within a one year time frame and given the current market mood.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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moneydust wrote:lochaz-index wrote:Afroblk wrote:I'm loving the bear...but it's not gonna last long...and so...one of my bond matured and here's how I'm re-investing the proceeds and take advantage of the bear starting tomorrow until I get all shares as planned, hopefully by 15 Oct. I'll be adding three new counters to my portfolio i.e. Centum, ARM and HFCK. I already have significant KQ and Britam but will be adding some more to average down.
Entry point (9/29/15-10/15/15)
KQ-18,000 @5.5
Britam-8,800 @17
HFCK-6,500 @23
ARM-6000 @42
Centum-5,700 @52
My target exit point is on or around 15 Sep 16 (1 yr from today) and targeting the following returns;
KQ-@9.00
Britam-@36
HFCK-@55
ARM-@92
Centum-@85
As you can see, if all plays and goes well of which I think most companies will do well 1&2 Qtrs then I'm looking at aprx 100% return in profits (Ksh0.9M) calculation based on ex div. I've factored in 100k in est broker fees.
I'll revisit this thread in Aug-Sep 2016 when I'm offloading.
Good Luck! I sincerely hope you have aligned your investment strategy to your risk appetite. Exit prices of Britam,HFCK,ARM and Centum appear grossly optimistic within a one year time frame and given the current market mood. Me thinks so too. We need at least 3 years before the current market mood returns. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: User Joined: 1/20/2014 Posts: 3,528
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Looks like the downside movement still has a long way to go...... massive legroom!!! Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/15/2010 Posts: 625
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If some additional banks follow Imperial Bank in the way of receivership, the NSE will see a long winter.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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NIC bank today closed at 38.25! At my lower limit level!! Should I revise down my price range, or I remove the lower limit! The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2007 Posts: 294
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Aguytrying wrote:NIC bank today closed at 38.25! At my lower limit level!! Should I revise down my price range, or I remove the lower limit! It should hit 25/- at some point... Kenyans like comparing oranges with apples (shareprices without any regards to No of issued shares)so while Equity n KCB are at 40bob, expect NIC to hit sub 30/-
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/19/2015 Posts: 125
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NIC is heading where Barclays is.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Aguytrying wrote:NIC bank today closed at 38.25! At my lower limit level!! Should I revise down my price range, or I remove the lower limit! Wait for it between 28-32. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:NIC bank today closed at 38.25! At my lower limit level!! Should I revise down my price range, or I remove the lower limit! Wait for it between 28-32. NAV for NIC as at FY 2014 is 35.00 bob. Anything below that is a serious discount, with the current trend your range is possible The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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A new season low window opening "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mlennyma wrote:A new season low window opening Finally we are entering a discount window, gives me something to do, buy shares as they become cheaper. KCB and equity share price approaching the 40.00 level. No way they should be above NIC share price logically, i expect this to be corrected as we go forward. Safcom proving a hard nut to crack, The index is below 4000 without safaricom, equity. fully participating? must be the last line of defence before everything turns red. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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Is it mmy eyes only. I am seeing red all over the place. Truely truely i tell you the red you see is a bear !!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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streetwise wrote:Is it mmy eyes only. I am seeing red all over the place. Truely truely i tell you the red you see is a bear !! Once the 4000 support was broken it is a free fall.. There is absolutely no support from here.3800 wont hold for long Even safcom is caving in Look at the bids on the big guys and big money favourites (saf,kcb,equity,barclays etc)!!!! Bids in 10 of thousands..Departure from norm..This is very fertile grounds for irrational price drops
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Metasploit wrote:streetwise wrote:Is it mmy eyes only. I am seeing red all over the place. Truely truely i tell you the red you see is a bear !! Once the 4000 support was broken it is a free fall.. There is absolutely no support from here.3800 wont hold for long Even safcom is caving in Look at the bids on the big guys and big money favourites (saf,kcb,equity,barclays etc)!!!! Bids in 10 of thousands..Departure from norm..This is very fertile grounds for irrational price drops Now real fear is setting in.. When KCB trades at sub 40!!!!!!!!!!!!
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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why KCB ??? Its price is a reference point for several banking counters
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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39 just printed..# KCB
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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