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Kengen HY 2015 results PAT up 400%
enyands
#81 Posted : Sunday, September 27, 2015 7:01:47 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
Ericsson wrote:
@enyands
You are in dreamland.
The more the oversupply the more expensive it gets because of paying for idle capacity.


@ericsson I think you are the one who needs to wake up. so when the jubilee govt is moving around telling people that the geothermal and solar has been commissioned to produce more electricity to bring the cost of stima chini that they are hallucinating. you are the one to wake up bro. 1st world countries eg USA,Canada have over supply of stima and its way cheaper than kenya and guess why its cheaper,well because they have many producers who are trying to be competitive enough on each other for the states to purchase from them,
so continue hallucinating with the theory of "over supply will make it more expensive" but in real world its the other way round but in dreamland is where your thoughts lie
sparkly
#82 Posted : Sunday, September 27, 2015 7:23:53 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Africa is grossly under powered. From Cape to Cairo. A Google search will get you some Africa power studies @Ericson.

www.cgdev.org/blog/how-m...power-africa-really-need
Life is short. Live passionately.
enyands
#83 Posted : Sunday, September 27, 2015 7:57:57 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
enyands wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
@enyands
You are in dreamland.
The more the oversupply the more expensive it gets because of paying for idle capacity.


@ericsson I think you are the one who needs to wake up. so when the jubilee govt is moving around telling people that the geothermal and solar has been commissioned to produce more electricity to bring the cost of stima chini that they are hallucinating. you are the one to wake up bro. 1st world countries eg USA,Canada have over supply of stima and its way cheaper than kenya and guess why its cheaper,well because they have many producers who are trying to be competitive enough on each other for the states to purchase from them,
so continue hallucinating with the theory of "over supply will make it more expensive" but in real world its the other way round but in dreamland is where your thoughts lie


for heavensake can you back it up your statement that oversupply will make it expensive. give me an example of a country that an oversupply has made it expensive. forget about the taxi and driver argument that you had before sir,here we are talking of stima
Kausha
#84 Posted : Sunday, September 27, 2015 10:52:22 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
Ericsson wrote:
In 2004 Government had projected that peak demand will hit 2000MW by 2015 and therefore started numerous energy generation projects.
In 2015 total installed capacity is 2200MW out of which KENGEN generates 1600MW.
In 2015 Peak demand capacity is at 1500MW;meaning running at full capacity KENGEN can sufficiently meet electricity demand for Kenya.
The 1000MW Lamu Coal power plant I don't know who the client is;it will lead to expensive power.
There is need to slow down the electricity generation projects;


@Ericksson
I almist got skinned alive by some Kengen enthusiasts 3 years ago when I said we would end up with shitloads of expensive power by chasing the 2000mw in 2015 and 5000mw in 2018 yet market demand over the past 15 years off KPLC data was growing at between 8-9%.
ngapat
#85 Posted : Sunday, September 27, 2015 11:04:12 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/11/2006
Posts: 884
Kausha wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
In 2004 Government had projected that peak demand will hit 2000MW by 2015 and therefore started numerous energy generation projects.
In 2015 total installed capacity is 2200MW out of which KENGEN generates 1600MW.
In 2015 Peak demand capacity is at 1500MW;meaning running at full capacity KENGEN can sufficiently meet electricity demand for Kenya.
The 1000MW Lamu Coal power plant I don't know who the client is;it will lead to expensive power.
There is need to slow down the electricity generation projects;


@Ericksson
I almist got skinned alive by some Kengen enthusiasts 3 years ago when I said we would end up with shitloads of expensive power by chasing the 2000mw in 2015 and 5000mw in 2018 yet market demand over the past 15 years off KPLC data was growing at between 8-9%.

Kenya power plans to sell 30MW to Rwanda.
Connectivity still below 50% in kenya due to high installation costs.
There is still elements of thermal power in the kenyan energy sources which is expensinve and should be substituted by cheaper renewable energy.
Its better if electricity becomes expensive due to idle capacity than due to fuel charge.
Idle capacity can easily be utilised by increasing connectivity (KPLC already doing so through Gpoba), export to neighboring countries and creation of more industries.
“Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth.”
murchr
#86 Posted : Sunday, September 27, 2015 3:41:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
enyands wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
@enyands
You are in dreamland.
The more the oversupply the more expensive it gets because of paying for idle capacity.


@ericsson I think you are the one who needs to wake up. so when the jubilee govt is moving around telling people that the geothermal and solar has been commissioned to produce more electricity to bring the cost of stima chini that they are hallucinating. you are the one to wake up bro. 1st world countries eg USA,Canada have over supply of stima and its way cheaper than kenya and guess why its cheaper,well because they have many producers who are trying to be competitive enough on each other for the states to purchase from them,
so continue hallucinating with the theory of "over supply will make it more expensive" but in real world its the other way round but in dreamland is where your thoughts lie


Yenyewe coming to think about it, that oversupply theory is not making sense.

In the western world, electricity is more expensive during the summer and winter months and cheaper when the temps are normal because the population is not consuming as much energy to cool and heat their houses...again, it doesn't make sense to even imagine that companies will produce electricity and stare at everyone because they cant sell it....as Cde points out we are connecting the Kenyan grid with the SA grid are there no customers in between?

Even if KPLC decides to pay just fixed costs to IPPs it would make sense for them to actually sell electricity.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Ericsson
#87 Posted : Sunday, September 27, 2015 9:01:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,702
Location: NAIROBI
@murchr;
Our problem is how we structure the PPAs vis-a-vis western world.
Secondly the geothermal power being installed was to kick out thermal power.
Western world the generators already recovered their capital so u can't compare with western world.
we killed industries to consume power being generated. Rural electrification demand is so low coz its mostly used for lighting which is a loss to kenya power and can't even consume 40mw
@Sparkly
there is no grid to transmit power from oversupply areas to areas with deficit.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
VituVingiSana
#88 Posted : Sunday, September 27, 2015 9:53:07 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
enyands wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
@enyands
You are in dreamland.
The more the oversupply the more expensive it gets because of paying for idle capacity.


@ericsson I think you are the one who needs to wake up. so when the jubilee govt is moving around telling people that the geothermal and solar has been commissioned to produce more electricity to bring the cost of stima chini that they are hallucinating. you are the one to wake up bro. 1st world countries eg USA,Canada have over supply of stima and its way cheaper than kenya and guess why its cheaper,well because they have many producers who are trying to be competitive enough on each other for the states to purchase from them,
so continue hallucinating with the theory of "over supply will make it more expensive" but in real world its the other way round but in dreamland is where your thoughts lie


Yenyewe coming to think about it, that oversupply theory is not making sense.

In the western world, electricity is more expensive during the summer and winter months and cheaper when the temps are normal because the population is not consuming as much energy to cool and heat their houses...again, it doesn't make sense to even imagine that companies will produce electricity and stare at everyone because they cant sell it....as Cde points out we are connecting the Kenyan grid with the SA grid are there no customers in between?

Even if KPLC decides to pay just fixed costs to IPPs it would make sense for them to actually sell electricity.

Yes, the IPPs would rather sell (for extra income) power than just be paid the 'capacity charge' but KPLC (or KETRACO) has to be in a position to transmit that power to consumers. Despite what one thinks, the primary consumer isn't the residential/office consumer but industrial consumers.

We are actively killing off our industries by over-taxing (NHIF, NSSF, etc) and over-regulating (licenses, corruption, NEMA, COTU, etc) them. Add the cost of financing which is over 20% p.a. and poor infrastructure. It is much easier to manufacture in Egypt, China or India & import into Kenya.

Most 'rural' consumers are (unfortunately) a net loss to KPLC as they typically consume less than 200 kW (of which 50 kW are subsidized) per household.

KPLC does have 'suppressed' demand which will be sorted out with the projects coming online by 2016.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#89 Posted : Sunday, September 27, 2015 10:01:45 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
@murchr;
Our problem is how we structure the PPAs vis-a-vis western world.
Secondly the geothermal power being installed was to kick out thermal power.
Western world the generators already recovered their capital so u can't compare with western world.
we killed industries to consume power being generated. Rural electrification demand is so low coz its mostly used for lighting which is a loss to kenya power and can't even consume 40mw
@Sparkly
there is no grid to transmit power from oversupply areas to areas with deficit.

@ericsson - Folks forget that power PRODUCTION goes hand in hand with DISTRIBUTION and CONSUMPTION. Electricity (electrical power) cannot be easily (cost effectively) stored.

The reason thermal plants are used as backup generation is their ability to easily cycle up or down depending on demand.

Elon Musk (through Tesla) are working on Power Packs but these are for small 'home' units for now. Until we have efficient storage, we will have to rely on expensive sources to fill in the gaps.

Rural Consumption - Agreed! Their consumption will increase over time but that's a long-term project that needs GoK subsidies.

Electric cars, electric trains, etc can become major consumers but it will take a while to get these projects built out. Plus these do not come cheap. The hybrid cars are more expensive than petrol/diesel cars. The electric cars are pricier than hybrids. Plus these electric cars need charging stations.

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#90 Posted : Sunday, September 27, 2015 11:35:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,702
Location: NAIROBI
Thank you VituVingiSana for making things clear.
Seems most folks don't understand power industry in kenya
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
murchr
#91 Posted : Monday, September 28, 2015 4:51:52 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
I still don't see how the investor gets screwed up since wanjiku in the city foots the bill. Anyway am of the opinion "Build, they will come". Facebook recently announced that they will be setting up a data-center in some oldtown in Fortworth TX. While everyone was wondering why facebook would invest in a sleepy town, it turned out that the city had commissioned a 200MW wind farm which is still under construction....by the way they intend to gulp it all up. There's no way you'd attract serious investments if you have no capacity.

"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
enyands
#92 Posted : Monday, September 28, 2015 6:22:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
@murchr;
Our problem is how we structure the PPAs vis-a-vis western world.
Secondly the geothermal power being installed was to kick out thermal power.
Western world the generators already recovered their capital so u can't compare with western world.
we killed industries to consume power being generated. Rural electrification demand is so low coz its mostly used for lighting which is a loss to kenya power and can't even consume 40mw
@Sparkly
there is no grid to transmit power from oversupply areas to areas with deficit.

@ericsson - Folks forget that power PRODUCTION goes hand in hand with DISTRIBUTION and CONSUMPTION. Electricity (electrical power) cannot be easily (cost effectively) stored.

The reason thermal plants are used as backup generation is their ability to easily cycle up or down depending on demand.

Elon Musk (through Tesla) are working on Power Packs but these are for small 'home' units for now. Until we have efficient storage, we will have to rely on expensive sources to fill in the gaps.

Rural Consumption - Agreed! Their consumption will increase over time but that's a long-term project that needs GoK subsidies.

Electric cars, electric trains, etc can become major consumers but it will take a while to get these projects built out. Plus these do not come cheap. The hybrid cars are more expensive than petrol/diesel cars. The electric cars are pricier than hybrids. Plus these electric cars need charging stations.


Applause
kryptonite
#93 Posted : Monday, September 28, 2015 10:50:54 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/1/2010
Posts: 272
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
I still don't see how the investor gets screwed up since wanjiku in the city foots the bill. Anyway am of the opinion "Build, they will come". Facebook recently announced that they will be setting up a data-center in some oldtown in Fortworth TX. While everyone was wondering why facebook would invest in a sleepy town, it turned out that the city had commissioned a 200MW wind farm which is still under construction....by the way they intend to gulp it all up. There's no way you'd attract serious investments if you have no capacity.




True, you have to add capacity beforehand
The harder you work, the luckier you get
VituVingiSana
#94 Posted : Wednesday, September 30, 2015 12:44:52 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Solar lighting is far more sensible and cheaper to install for both the consumer (and government) than hooking up to the grid for many rural 'off the beaten path' consumers.

http://www.businessdaily...0/-/wn6pqc/-/index.html

As an urban user, I might consider it as a backup solution in case of a blackout.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
gatoho
#95 Posted : Wednesday, September 30, 2015 1:34:09 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/1/2010
Posts: 511
Location: kandara, Murang'a
murchr wrote:
I still don't see how the investor gets screwed up since wanjiku in the city foots the bill. Anyway am of the opinion "Build, they will come". Facebook recently announced that they will be setting up a data-center in some oldtown in Fortworth TX. While everyone was wondering why facebook would invest in a sleepy town, it turned out that the city had commissioned a 200MW wind farm which is still under construction....by the way they intend to gulp it all up. There's no way you'd attract serious investments if you have no capacity.


Wee Muciiri, fort Worth time sleepy. What with all the gunshots at night
Foresight..
enyands
#96 Posted : Wednesday, September 30, 2015 4:03:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
gatoho wrote:
murchr wrote:
I still don't see how the investor gets screwed up since wanjiku in the city foots the bill. Anyway am of the opinion "Build, they will come". Facebook recently announced that they will be setting up a data-center in some oldtown in Fortworth TX. While everyone was wondering why facebook would invest in a sleepy town, it turned out that the city had commissioned a 200MW wind farm which is still under construction....by the way they intend to gulp it all up. There's no way you'd attract serious investments if you have no capacity.


Wee Muciiri, fort Worth time sleepy. What with all the gunshots at night


Better than hoods in Chicago
murchr
#97 Posted : Wednesday, September 30, 2015 5:49:26 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
gatoho wrote:
murchr wrote:
I still don't see how the investor gets screwed up since wanjiku in the city foots the bill. Anyway am of the opinion "Build, they will come". Facebook recently announced that they will be setting up a data-center in some oldtown in Fortworth TX. While everyone was wondering why facebook would invest in a sleepy town, it turned out that the city had commissioned a 200MW wind farm which is still under construction....by the way they intend to gulp it all up. There's no way you'd attract serious investments if you have no capacity.


Wee Muciiri, fort Worth time sleepy. What with all the gunshots at night


Hahaha....could be cowboys chasing cattle rustlers Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
MaichBlack
#98 Posted : Wednesday, September 30, 2015 2:49:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,460
murchr wrote:
I still don't see how the investor gets screwed up since wanjiku in the city foots the bill. Anyway am of the opinion "Build, they will come". Facebook recently announced that they will be setting up a data-center in some oldtown in Fortworth TX. While everyone was wondering why facebook would invest in a sleepy town, it turned out that the city had commissioned a 200MW wind farm which is still under construction....by the way they intend to gulp it all up. There's no way you'd attract serious investments if you have no capacity.


@vvs has made very valid points but I also agree with you!

Unfortunately, you cannot tell investors/companies "Come and then we will generate more power". You generate it and they will come if and when you get the other issues raised by @vvs right. Hopefully someone in this government is looking at the whole thing holistically and other things are being done in the background to make the country more attractive to investors and lower the cost and hustle of doing business in Kenya.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
MaichBlack
#99 Posted : Monday, October 05, 2015 7:55:42 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,460
Where the extra power is going!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
Danster
#100 Posted : Monday, October 05, 2015 8:17:24 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 9/23/2015
Posts: 12
This is good news considering the upcoming investments to generate more power. Kengen and Kenya power will be releasing their full year end financial statements this month. Considering the projected growth in this current year, is it advisable to buy these two shares now at the current prices?
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