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Kengen HY 2015 results PAT up 400%
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Always thought this would be a good FX supplement for KGN. Bubble. Tulipnomics. To me Bitcoin faces a similar fate. KenGen to trade its carbon credits on local bourseRead more at: http://www.standardmedia...credits-on-local-bourse
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/16/2006 Posts: 229
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Muthawamunene wrote:Also keep heavy forex loan payments in mind.
Majority govt ownership.
Expected rights issue next year.
There won't be much to celebrate here. Kengen became another KenyaRe when peeps sobered up from their IPO utopia. The forex losses are passed to the customers by kplc. “I don’t regret the things I’ve done, I regret the things I didn’t do when I had the chance.”
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2007 Posts: 294
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The company is not that badly off financially. Finance costs for 1/2year 2015 was a "paltry" 1.3B.  The company over the same period reported new revenues of 3Billion (from 8.9 to 12b). The P/E ratio is a decent 3.6. My only concern is the upcoming rights issue...coz at its current price they may offer at least 4billion additional shares. Also the corruption allegations and wastage...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,702 Location: NAIROBI
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In 2004 Government had projected that peak demand will hit 2000MW by 2015 and therefore started numerous energy generation projects. In 2015 total installed capacity is 2200MW out of which KENGEN generates 1600MW. In 2015 Peak demand capacity is at 1500MW;meaning running at full capacity KENGEN can sufficiently meet electricity demand for Kenya. The 1000MW Lamu Coal power plant I don't know who the client is;it will lead to expensive power. There is need to slow down the electricity generation projects; Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Ericsson wrote:In 2004 Government had projected that peak demand will hit 2000MW by 2015 and therefore started numerous energy generation projects.
In 2015 total installed capacity is 2200MW out of which KENGEN generates 1600MW.
In 2015 Peak demand capacity is at 1500MW;meaning running at full capacity KENGEN can sufficiently meet electricity demand for Kenya.
The 1000MW Lamu Coal power plant I don't know who the client is;it will lead to expensive power.
There is need to slow down the electricity generation projects; What about the exported power to Rwanda, the heated pipeline from Uganda to Lamu, the electric train, rural electrification, industrial parks in Naivasha, another thing aren't investors running away because we have no capacity to supply the needed power??? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,702 Location: NAIROBI
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@murchr; Exported power to Rwanda is short term and a temporary measure.Rwanda is aggressively building gas power plants from methane gas in Lake Kivu. Electric train is a pipe dream like Konza;you will not see it in your lifetime. Industrial Parks for who;investors are running away because of bureaucracy,corruption in terms of kickbacks from politicians and ruling elite not capacity to supply the needed power. Our problem now is not generation capacity but weak distribution. Our electricity is expensive because of the numerous unnecessary charges on your electricity power bill. Lamu/Lappset is slowly grinding to a halt;twas an over ambitious project with our weak finance. Rural electrification the consumption is negligible;mostly for lighting and some of the rural folks are going solar. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,702 Location: NAIROBI
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@murchr; Read my key word slow down not stop;Right now we already have more power than what we are consuming and we are still planning to import 500MW from Ethiopia; An African has a big big problem Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Ericsson wrote:@murchr;
Read my key word slow down not stop;Right now we already have more power than what we are consuming and we are still planning to import 500MW from Ethiopia;
An African has a big big problem Also, hopefully in this lifetime too - as we're told about SDGs, is the EA power pool connect to the SA power pool. Power up the continent.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,460
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"You will not see it in your life time"? That reminds me, who ever thought we would ever see in our life times a situation where Kenya had enough electricity to an extent the discussion was whether we should slow down on power production. One more thing, even when Michuki said that the government was going to do the Thika Super Highway, many said that will never happen in our life time. Same story with the bypasses. Most said "Those roads were demarcated in the 70s. What makes you imagine they will be built any time soon? Nothing new here." Oh yee Kenyans of little faith, when will you wean yourselves of extreme pessimism. Why will you learn from thy previous ways?? Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Ericsson wrote:@murchr;
Exported power to Rwanda is short term and a temporary measure.Rwanda is aggressively building gas power plants from methane gas in Lake Kivu.
Electric train is a pipe dream like Konza;you will not see it in your lifetime.
Industrial Parks for who;investors are running away because of bureaucracy,corruption in terms of kickbacks from politicians and ruling elite not capacity to supply the needed power.
Our problem now is not generation capacity but weak distribution.
Our electricity is expensive because of the numerous unnecessary charges on your electricity power bill.
Lamu/Lappset is slowly grinding to a halt;twas an over ambitious project with our weak finance.
Rural electrification the consumption is negligible;mostly for lighting and some of the rural folks are going solar. By the time Rwanda completes its plant, that power will already be taken up by some leather factory. I will not argue about things I may know and you may not know but i will ask you to think about this. WHY IS EVERYONE CONNECTED IN SOME WAY TO GOVERNMENT NOW GETTING INVOLVED IN SOME POWER COMPANY? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,300 Location: kenya
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murchr wrote:Ericsson wrote:@murchr;
Exported power to Rwanda is short term and a temporary measure.Rwanda is aggressively building gas power plants from methane gas in Lake Kivu.
Electric train is a pipe dream like Konza;you will not see it in your lifetime.
Industrial Parks for who;investors are running away because of bureaucracy,corruption in terms of kickbacks from politicians and ruling elite not capacity to supply the needed power.
Our problem now is not generation capacity but weak distribution.
Our electricity is expensive because of the numerous unnecessary charges on your electricity power bill.
Lamu/Lappset is slowly grinding to a halt;twas an over ambitious project with our weak finance.
Rural electrification the consumption is negligible;mostly for lighting and some of the rural folks are going solar. By the time Rwanda completes its plant, that power will already be taken up by some leather factory. I will not argue about things I may know and you may not know but i will ask you to think about this. WHY IS EVERYONE CONNECTED IN SOME WAY TO GOVERNMENT NOW GETTING INVOLVED IN SOME POWER COMPANY? The more the oversupply of stima the less the demand and the cheaper the stima hence the happier the mwananchi .I am mwananchi and I'll be happy to pay less..
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,702 Location: NAIROBI
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@murchr It's becaue of the fixed cost that you get whether you produce power or not. Right now some of the thermal producers are not producing electricity but are being paid the fixed cost. How easy is it to make money;you can turn off the machines fire everyone and have only an askari to guard but the money you will be paid as fixed cost is more than 100 times the salary of the askari. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,702 Location: NAIROBI
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@enyands You are in dreamland. The more the oversupply the more expensive it gets because of paying for idle capacity. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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@enyands PPAs bind the price. @murchr are you refn: to PPPs? @Ericsson true, depending on the prevailing generation mix.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:@murchr
It's becaue of the fixed cost that you get whether you produce power or not.
Right now some of the thermal producers are not producing electricity but are being paid the fixed cost.
How easy is it to make money;you can turn off the machines fire everyone and have only an askari to guard but the money you will be paid as fixed cost is more than 100 times the salary of the askari. This is a point many, many people do not understand including folks appointed to the ERC. The PPAs have minimum off-take agreements so those thermal plants may not be 'producing' but KPLC (aka consumers) still pay for the plants 'waiting' to produce. The same applies to wind or hydro. Solar and Wind are variable sources i.e. they do not provide consistent power consistently therefore there is need for thermal plants to even out the power production. Keeping these thermal plants on stand-by costs money passed on to consumers. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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VituVingiSana wrote:Ericsson wrote:@murchr
It's becaue of the fixed cost that you get whether you produce power or not.
Right now some of the thermal producers are not producing electricity but are being paid the fixed cost.
How easy is it to make money;you can turn off the machines fire everyone and have only an askari to guard but the money you will be paid as fixed cost is more than 100 times the salary of the askari. This is a point many, many people do not understand including folks appointed to the ERC. The PPAs have minimum off-take agreements so those thermal plants may not be 'producing' but KPLC (aka consumers) still pay for the plants 'waiting' to produce. The same applies to wind or hydro. Solar and Wind are variable sources i.e. they do not provide consistent power consistently therefore there is need for thermal plants to even out the power production. Keeping these thermal plants on stand-by costs money passed on to consumers. Are you saying that KPLC pays for power not supplied? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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murchr wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ericsson wrote:@murchr
It's becaue of the fixed cost that you get whether you produce power or not.
Right now some of the thermal producers are not producing electricity but are being paid the fixed cost.
How easy is it to make money;you can turn off the machines fire everyone and have only an askari to guard but the money you will be paid as fixed cost is more than 100 times the salary of the askari. This is a point many, many people do not understand including folks appointed to the ERC. The PPAs have minimum off-take agreements so those thermal plants may not be 'producing' but KPLC (aka consumers) still pay for the plants 'waiting' to produce. The same applies to wind or hydro. Solar and Wind are variable sources i.e. they do not provide consistent power consistently therefore there is need for thermal plants to even out the power production. Keeping these thermal plants on stand-by costs money passed on to consumers. Are you saying that KPLC pays for power not supplied? Yes. When you lease a car, the car is yours to use BUT there's a charge for having the car available exclusively for you. You can use it whenever you want to. Or do not use it. The lease fee covers the cost (& profit) of the lessor who supplies the car to you. You pay for the driver and fuel. If you do not use the car, there's no fuel charge but you have to pay for the driver a fixed amount whether you use him 1 hour a week or 8 hours a day. KQ leases planes. There is a lease fee/cost. The plane can sit at JKIA looking all nice and shiny. Or the plane can be flown & KQ pays for the fuel and crew. The lease fee/cost applies either way. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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VituVingiSana wrote:murchr wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ericsson wrote:@murchr
It's becaue of the fixed cost that you get whether you produce power or not.
Right now some of the thermal producers are not producing electricity but are being paid the fixed cost.
How easy is it to make money;you can turn off the machines fire everyone and have only an askari to guard but the money you will be paid as fixed cost is more than 100 times the salary of the askari. This is a point many, many people do not understand including folks appointed to the ERC. The PPAs have minimum off-take agreements so those thermal plants may not be 'producing' but KPLC (aka consumers) still pay for the plants 'waiting' to produce. The same applies to wind or hydro. Solar and Wind are variable sources i.e. they do not provide consistent power consistently therefore there is need for thermal plants to even out the power production. Keeping these thermal plants on stand-by costs money passed on to consumers. Are you saying that KPLC pays for power not supplied? Yes. When you lease a car, the car is yours to use BUT there's a charge for having the car available exclusively for you. You can use it whenever you want to. Or do not use it. The lease fee covers the cost (& profit) of the lessor who supplies the car to you. You pay for the driver and fuel. If you do not use the car, there's no fuel charge but you have to pay for the driver a fixed amount whether you use him 1 hour a week or 8 hours a day. KQ leases planes. There is a lease fee/cost. The plane can sit at JKIA looking all nice and shiny. Or the plane can be flown & KQ pays for the fuel and crew. The lease fee/cost applies either way. So simply put, since KPLC charges the consumer, the gain goes to the power producing companies right? Anyway, i don't see this being an enough incentive for an investor given the sunk costs. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,121 Location: Nairobi
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murchr wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:murchr wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ericsson wrote:@murchr
It's becaue of the fixed cost that you get whether you produce power or not.
Right now some of the thermal producers are not producing electricity but are being paid the fixed cost.
How easy is it to make money;you can turn off the machines fire everyone and have only an askari to guard but the money you will be paid as fixed cost is more than 100 times the salary of the askari. This is a point many, many people do not understand including folks appointed to the ERC. The PPAs have minimum off-take agreements so those thermal plants may not be 'producing' but KPLC (aka consumers) still pay for the plants 'waiting' to produce. The same applies to wind or hydro. Solar and Wind are variable sources i.e. they do not provide consistent power consistently therefore there is need for thermal plants to even out the power production. Keeping these thermal plants on stand-by costs money passed on to consumers. Are you saying that KPLC pays for power not supplied? Yes. When you lease a car, the car is yours to use BUT there's a charge for having the car available exclusively for you. You can use it whenever you want to. Or do not use it. The lease fee covers the cost (& profit) of the lessor who supplies the car to you. You pay for the driver and fuel. If you do not use the car, there's no fuel charge but you have to pay for the driver a fixed amount whether you use him 1 hour a week or 8 hours a day. KQ leases planes. There is a lease fee/cost. The plane can sit at JKIA looking all nice and shiny. Or the plane can be flown & KQ pays for the fuel and crew. The lease fee/cost applies either way. So simply put, since KPLC charges the consumer, the gain goes to the power producing companies right? Anyway, i don't see this being an enough incentive for an investor given the sunk costs. There is a fixed (agreed upon) payment that covers the costs of IPPs even if no electricity is produced. The PPAs are for a long duration and any sales during that period = icing on the cake. It benefits all if they produce electricity which is consumed for production but if our generation capacity exceeds the consumption then it hurts us as we pay for unused capacity. Thermal power will come in handy when we have droughts, outages from other sources or spikes in usage. Lucky for us, diesel (& fuel oil) prices have dropped but long-term use of thermal power is pricey. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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VituVingiSana wrote:murchr wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:murchr wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Ericsson wrote:@murchr
It's becaue of the fixed cost that you get whether you produce power or not.
Right now some of the thermal producers are not producing electricity but are being paid the fixed cost.
How easy is it to make money;you can turn off the machines fire everyone and have only an askari to guard but the money you will be paid as fixed cost is more than 100 times the salary of the askari. This is a point many, many people do not understand including folks appointed to the ERC. The PPAs have minimum off-take agreements so those thermal plants may not be 'producing' but KPLC (aka consumers) still pay for the plants 'waiting' to produce. The same applies to wind or hydro. Solar and Wind are variable sources i.e. they do not provide consistent power consistently therefore there is need for thermal plants to even out the power production. Keeping these thermal plants on stand-by costs money passed on to consumers. Are you saying that KPLC pays for power not supplied? Yes. When you lease a car, the car is yours to use BUT there's a charge for having the car available exclusively for you. You can use it whenever you want to. Or do not use it. The lease fee covers the cost (& profit) of the lessor who supplies the car to you. You pay for the driver and fuel. If you do not use the car, there's no fuel charge but you have to pay for the driver a fixed amount whether you use him 1 hour a week or 8 hours a day. KQ leases planes. There is a lease fee/cost. The plane can sit at JKIA looking all nice and shiny. Or the plane can be flown & KQ pays for the fuel and crew. The lease fee/cost applies either way. So simply put, since KPLC charges the consumer, the gain goes to the power producing companies right? Anyway, i don't see this being an enough incentive for an investor given the sunk costs. There is a fixed (agreed upon) payment that covers the costs of IPPs even if no electricity is produced. The PPAs are for a long duration and any sales during that period = icing on the cake. It benefits all if they produce electricity which is consumed for production but if our generation capacity exceeds the consumption then it hurts us as we pay for unused capacity. Thermal power will come in handy when we have droughts, outages from other sources or spikes in usage. Lucky for us, diesel (& fuel oil) prices have dropped but long-term use of thermal power is pricey. If we choose to care less about wanjiku(who foots the bill) the other participants are making money right...I guess that's what matters "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Kengen HY 2015 results PAT up 400%
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