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KPLC UP
TUPAC
#1 Posted : Thursday, March 11, 2010 3:40:01 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/8/2009
Posts: 274
Location: Ltktk
This stock has appreciated over the last few days. Could there be some material infomation unknown to some of us?
...things fall apart...the centre cannot hold..mere anarchy is loosed upon the world...w b yeats
sparkly
#2 Posted : Thursday, March 11, 2010 5:54:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@tupac where have you been? There are several threads discussing kplc and its sister kengen. You will get all you need to know.
Life is short. Live passionately.
VituVingiSana
#3 Posted : Friday, March 12, 2010 3:22:49 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
Ati... 'material info unknown to us'...

I have been touting KPLC for ages. Just read the Annual Report & 1H 2009-10 results. Do some research before you payuka...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwenza
#4 Posted : Friday, March 12, 2010 6:24:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2009
Posts: 2,863
@ VVS..........looks like your 200k prediction will come too soon. Are you thinking of adjusting the prediction upwards?
IF YOU EXPECT ME TO POST ANYTHING POSITIVE ABOUT ASENO, YOU MAY AS WELL SIT ON A PIN
Horton
#5 Posted : Monday, March 15, 2010 6:22:58 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
ai guys seriously, this thing reminds me of the TELKOM and ORANGE deal KPLC has 800M paid up Pref shares. issued are about794M at par value of 20bob, if they were to convert the convertibles, it would have to be a conversion of 1:1 coz the common stock par is also at 20bob. That would mean, the Govt, would hold over 840M shares while everyone else takes the minority diff. My guess is that the govt, will offload these at a secondary IPO.
--Yes, the NAV will remain, more or less at 136BOB after conversion, however EPS will take a nosedive, at current rates to about 4bob or thereabouts
--Besides too much siasa" on why KPLC "should make so much profit"
--We do need another power distributor as the loss in transmission lines are just too high.
--Whatever happened to Manitoba?
--This conversion process is not as simple as u'd think, about 2 yrs back, i was talking to one of the guys charged with this process of conversion and splitting and I just asked him, how will this work, coz it looks quite complicated, as a parastatal, u want to ensure that the "common mwananchi" doesnt feel ripped off and the govt, ofcourse has to reap from their investments and he was disturbed and said, he doesnt really know and it is going to be "quite interesting" he later on, moved to a different company but still thinks this thing was too complicated.
--Ever asked yourself that 40+EPS, why is it that kplc dont even give out 5bob as divs, well its coz they cant, no...not coz they are re-investing, that money belongs to the Pref holders after the conversion process is over.
--I got into these just before TCL got in, and I sold out a couple of months before they exited(mine were obviously kidogo relatively) couldnt deal with all the uncertainty and also the mathematics was simple, conversion should be 1:1 as the par values are the same. Guys tread with caution, otherwise goodluck
guru267
#6 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 6:16:41 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@horton now i see why the gains in this counter are limited... there is high level of IGNORANCE of investors about the share restructuring...

@horton its very useless to write such a long thread filled with total crap!!!

READ A BOOK OR SOMETHING!!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
guru267
#7 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 6:21:16 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
TUPAC wrote:
This stock has appreciated over the last few days. Could there be some material infomation unknown to some of us?


@TUPAC the reason for this appreciation is very simple.. many investors and analysts see the share restructuring as very favourable for ordinary shareholders hence they are trying to buy into KPLC heavily.. though supply is limted...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Horton
#8 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 6:21:59 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
@ guru267

well son, u could always "not read it then" how about that??'

woke up on the wrong side of the bed??
guru267
#9 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 6:26:10 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@horton its an open forum but there is no need to post complete LIES....
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
muganda
#10 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 6:47:19 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,905
@guru267 bravo; I admit I'm one of the 'easy to mislead' as relates to KPLC, noting its sensitivity and all.

So why not counter @horton's arguments fact for fact so I'm better informed. The 'lie' for insult has left me even more befuddled. Leaving @horton's argument looking quite persuasive.
sheep
#11 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 6:59:50 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
@Horton

You are on to something...I make it a policy not to trust the govt.Woe to the people who believe in the goodwill of the govt to the ordinary folk.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
mkonomtupu
#12 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 7:01:16 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
I always welcome differing views on stocks because it always sharpens your edge. I have always had misgivings about KPLC, (although i invest in it) due to its history. KPLC is a company a few years back qualified to be in receivership before gova came to its rescue with Kengen being forced to lower its unit sale to 1.76 and when it came time to adjust back to 2.36 KPLC refused until the matter was taken to the ERC tribunal.
Horton, Guru give us more insight on the restructuring,
I keep this stock as a speculative stock awaiting the share restructuring.
guru267
#13 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 7:14:14 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@muganda if @hortons argument had any weight then we would all expect the price for this counter to be falling through the ground and not to rise 22% in less than a month...

GOK is converting 13.8bn worth of pref shares... if they convert at current price then there will be about 76.2mn new ordinary shares bringing total issued ordinary shares to 155.3mn shares adding the 79.128mn already issued...

this will cause last years EPS to drop to around 21.59 and P/E will then be about 8.4... but taking into account this years half year results the EPS may be rise to about 27.7 and give a p/e of 6.5...

after the split it will be a penny blue chip stock and these stocks always trade with a P/E above 13...

so if one does the math one can easily make money without even having to take up his/her rights in the rights issue...

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
TUPAC
#14 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 7:16:36 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/8/2009
Posts: 274
Location: Ltktk
@guru How favourable will it be to the ordnary folk when the gova is increasin its stake while diluting the ordinary folk?
May be in the long run it is. But for the short term it may not be favourable. just my view.
And how far have these Kplc guys gone with the restructuring issue?ie when are they likely to announce the details?
...things fall apart...the centre cannot hold..mere anarchy is loosed upon the world...w b yeats
guru267
#15 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 7:24:25 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@tupac.. we all need to realise and understand that this "bluechip" stock is trading with a P/E of less than 5 when the market p/e is 13 and rising...

so even if GOK dilutes the stock it will still be trading at a p/e of less than 9 which is cheap for a growing bluechip company...

i expect the announcement on restructuring either this week or next week
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Horton
#16 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 7:26:17 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
@tupac.. we all need to realise and understand that this "bluechip" stock is trading with a P/E of less than 5 when the market p/e is 13 and rising...

so even if GOK dilutes the stock it will still be trading at a p/e of less than 9 which is cheap for a growing bluechip company...

i expect the announcement on restructuring either this week or next week

PE from 5 to 9?? thats basically doubling common stock??!!
So what you are saying is dilution will be only to the effect of 2 stocks for 1??

who is "LYING" now?? thats not feesible

sheep
#17 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 7:32:30 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
What I am foreseeing is after Gok reducing its stake,It will force KPLC to lower elec. cost to consumers which means lower profitability.Just thinking...
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
guru267
#18 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 7:33:59 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@horton please get hold of a calculator...
GOK is not using any ratios for the conversion they are simply going to convert sh13.8bn worth of pref shares to ordinary shares at current market price on the day of the announcement and add them to the current issued ordinary shares...

please do the math and then calculate the P/E ratio and then tell me of what i'm saying is wrong...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
guru267
#19 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 7:42:33 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@sheep GOK currently owns 40% of KPLC and after conversion of the prefs it will own more than 70% and then after rights issue it will own a little more than 50%.. this represents an overall increase in their stake in the company...

point of onformation KPLC last tuesday printed on the daily nation that they desire to maintain profitability at 10%-12% of the total asset base which currently stands at around sh70billion and this is bound to rise with an increase in capital expenditure
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Horton
#20 Posted : Tuesday, March 16, 2010 7:43:25 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
@guru...thats the problem...it aint gonna be "simple arithmetic" its more complicated than that... for your sake and the sake of other mwananchis', I do hope I am wrong
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