Indeed. I never thot this thread would run this long...

Btw I'm still uncomfy at this elevated indices heights with all these profit warnings and thin volume! Weak bull legs... The saving grace is weak oil prices. A sharp rebound on oil prices will make things very messy with all these earnings warnings.

Also got beef with NSE on the same. Warnings are issued for a current FY and 3 months in advance. The current warnings have violated the 90 day prior rule and some after FY has closed! What a shame NSE . Global markets don't run this way.

I have noticed that especially on cfci its like somebody has been keen to pick any supply below 25

When the sovereign bond market bottom falls out the initial reaction will be both global bonds and equities will nosedive. But since this will be a sovereign bond crisis the initial equities crash will be a nice opportunity to buy. Once the smoke clears and investors see the sovereign debt crisis they'll pile into stocks heavily as public debt is trashed vs private debt.

This wealth transfer event will favour equities vs real estate and commodities. Bonds wil be thrown in the dustbin. Those funds that really on the bond market only will lose a lot of money and may even shutdown! Pension funds and savings will be bailed in as governments grab those cookie jar to save the sovereign debt market.

This is why I've resisted to advocate for the money market as equities selloff since this is a false reaction! Capital will definitely fly out of government market into private debt (stocks or corporates bonds etc). We will see a lot of revolts across the globe when govt pension funds get raided.

When this happens equities will reverse their initial selloff and recoup all the losses and stage a major rally for the next decade until the next rotation cycle into commodities or real estate.

I'm putting this here as a reminder for the equities major bottom signal.

[quote=hisah]When the sovereign bond market bottom falls out the initial reaction will be both global bonds and equities will nosedive. But since this will be a sovereign bond crisis the initial equities crash will be a nice opportunity to buy. Once the smoke clears and investors see the sovereign debt crisis they'll pile into stocks heavily as public debt is trashed vs private debt.

This wealth transfer event will favour equities vs real estate and commodities. Bonds wil be thrown in the dustbin. Those funds that really on the bond market only will lose a lot of money and may even shutdown! Pension funds and savings will be bailed in as governments grab those cookie jar to save the sovereign debt market.

This is why I've resisted to advocate for the money market as equities selloff since this is a false reaction! Capital will definitely fly out of government market into private debt (stocks or corporates bonds etc). We will see a lot of revolts across the globe when govt pension funds get raided.

When this happens equities will reverse their initial selloff and recoup all the losses and stage a major rally for the next decade until the next rotation cycle into commodities or real estate.

I'm putting this here as a reminder for the equities major bottom signal.

“The sooner we adjust, the less costly that transition will be. We think we have increasing awareness in Congress about the need for that, especially after yesterday’s events. We want to have all of the resources and spending compatible with achieving the 0.7 per cent, that’s the strategy,” Levy told journalists.

God Forbid-oh... that markets have to act for Sovereigns to reign in wasteful chopping of money.[/quote

Brazil’s downgrade: A blessing in disguise




http://thebricspost.com/...-disguise/#.VfaJzn07WSq

from macros perspective, i expect the USD bulls to chicken out just like the FED,offering the much needed relief to EM and FM currencies including Kenya, atleat in the short run. MPC will also put a freeze on the cbr hikes(for now) and this will be a good thing for NSE bulls.
Globally, i expect a gradual selloff in the US markets as investors begin to lose confidence in FED's ability to jump start the economy 7 years into easing. EM and FMs as well as gold will rally hard as a result.
Back to KE, i suggest you go in into liquid, solid stocks for ease of exit.