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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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snipermnoma
#841 Posted : Thursday, September 10, 2015 12:49:40 AM
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Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
My reading of this is that this rebound is a bull trap. A false dawn before another slump. If you are an active trader you may make money but if you are not on utaungua.
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holycow
#842 Posted : Thursday, September 10, 2015 6:04:33 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/11/2006
Posts: 972
Location: Home
hisah wrote:
Global markets seem to have run the rebound course. Don't be fooled by this snappish rebound. I've seen this many times and I can state for a fact that these global markets are just about to break sharply lower without warning!

You were right. Asia looks bad. Actually, red.
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Sir invest
#843 Posted : Thursday, September 10, 2015 9:51:41 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/19/2015
Posts: 125
ha ha ha this laughable! If you are still waiting the shares to dip further in order to by more. Keep waiting!!!

"You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets"
Peter Lynch
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instinct
#844 Posted : Thursday, September 10, 2015 10:17:19 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
holycow wrote:
hisah wrote:
Global markets seem to have run the rebound course. Don't be fooled by this snappish rebound. I've seen this many times and I can state for a fact that these global markets are just about to break sharply lower without warning!

You were right. Asia looks bad. Actually, red.


buyers and sellers will continue this cat and mouse game until Q3 earnings begin to trickle in 2nd week of October and drum some sense into the market
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Metasploit
#845 Posted : Thursday, September 10, 2015 11:35:08 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
Metasploit wrote:
Equity at 36.75 low a few days ago and on good volumes..Safcom at 12.60 low a few days ago and on good volumes..I was spot on these

HFCK building demand and set for an upthrust##trading the oscillations


Equity been on a crazy rally from a low of 36.75 (more than 20%).Price almost overtaking KCB..This should be a good exit point.

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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mlennyma
#846 Posted : Thursday, September 10, 2015 11:53:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
Metasploit wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
Equity at 36.75 low a few days ago and on good volumes..Safcom at 12.60 low a few days ago and on good volumes..I was spot on these

HFCK building demand and set for an upthrust##trading the oscillations


Equity been on a crazy rally from a low of 36.75 (more than 20%).Price almost overtaking KCB..This should be a good exit point.

You have spoken.my thoughts too
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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mnandii
#847 Posted : Thursday, September 10, 2015 5:59:31 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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hisah
#848 Posted : Monday, September 14, 2015 12:02:50 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
KE Money market yields are hinting at a liquidity tightness bad confidence status. Yield curve inversion looms! Not a nice signal for equities looking for support after a heavy selling bout. Liquidity is being strongly sucked into money markets while USDKES still sits a hairline away from all time highs. Bond issuers will be squeezed badly as rates spike higher.

CB madness coming up. They'll start throwing the sink and everything else here at this liquidity blackhole.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Aguytrying
#849 Posted : Monday, September 14, 2015 7:18:58 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
One thing I dont get. If there's strong demand for bonds, shouldn't interest rates go down?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Gatheuzi
#850 Posted : Monday, September 14, 2015 7:32:27 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
Aguytrying wrote:
One thing I dont get. If there's strong demand for bonds, shouldn't interest rates go down?

The CBR rate acts as a reference point. It is a risk free rate that assumes no default risk. To issue a bond sucessfully a premium will have to be added to ensure success. That creates differentials in rates quoted.
Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Cde Monomotapa
#851 Posted : Monday, September 14, 2015 8:31:14 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
hisah wrote:
KE Money market yields are hinting at a liquidity tightness bad confidence status. Yield curve inversion looms! Not a nice signal for equities looking for support after a heavy selling bout. Liquidity is being strongly sucked into money markets while USDKES still sits a hairline away from all time highs. Bond issuers will be squeezed badly as rates spike higher.

CB madness coming up. They'll start throwing the sink and everything else here at this liquidity blackhole.



Mega Bill coming up. The Bids here will be interesting. Enough to smooth the curve? We'll see. Foreign portfolio funds can be attracted to this one.

CBK to sell T-bond worth 30bn

Quote:
Kenya will sell a one-year Treasury bond worth Sh30 billion shillings this month and its proceeds will go towards funding the government's budget, the Central Bank said on Friday - See more at: http://www.the-star.co.k...-sell-t-bond-worth-30bn
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Muthawamunene
#852 Posted : Monday, September 14, 2015 8:43:08 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
One thing I dont get. If there's strong demand for bonds, shouldn't interest rates go down?


The strong demand is for long term bonds and not short ones. Investors are willing to pay more for long term paper thus raising its price and decreasing its yield.

This means that bond issuers will have to offer rates higher than long term paper for them to raise short term money.

The illiquidity becomes real then.
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Aguytrying
#853 Posted : Monday, September 14, 2015 9:57:36 AM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@Gatheuzi, Muthawamunene. Thanks. This bonds business takes some understanding
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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hisah
#854 Posted : Monday, September 14, 2015 12:16:49 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Muthawamunene wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
One thing I dont get. If there's strong demand for bonds, shouldn't interest rates go down?


The strong demand is for long term bonds and not short ones. Investors are willing to pay more for long term paper thus raising its price and decreasing its yield.

This means that bond issuers will have to offer rates higher than long term paper for them to raise short term money.

The illiquidity becomes real then.

Exactly. Markets can't function without liquidity. That squeeze is what distorts the market.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#855 Posted : Monday, September 14, 2015 12:36:53 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Broker to investors: Cut equities exposure at the Nairobi bourse

Quote:
Dyer and Blair have asked their clients to put money in T-bills and fixed-term deposits. In the latest auctions, the 91-day T-bill went for 13.858 per cent up from 11.502 per cent the previous week.


Why is this broker advising its clients to head into the fixed income market? Very bold call to ditch equities and load up money markets. Does this mean fixed income rates are about to spike?

This story will become clear very soon...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Metasploit
#856 Posted : Monday, September 14, 2015 5:23:22 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
mlennyma wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
Equity at 36.75 low a few days ago and on good volumes..Safcom at 12.60 low a few days ago and on good volumes..I was spot on these

HFCK building demand and set for an upthrust##trading the oscillations


Equity been on a crazy rally from a low of 36.75 (more than 20%).Price almost overtaking KCB..This should be a good exit point.

You have spoken.my thoughts too


Equity closes at 47 with a solid demand of 200,000 shares at 47 against a supply of less than 30k at 48,49 and 50..RSI at 70 on a bear market!!whats cooking???All time HIGH AT 55..
KCB stuck and trying to overcome support of 46 now turned resistance..

A def peak for both

FED meeting on sep 16/17..I expected fear to be on the markets this week

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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moneydust
#857 Posted : Tuesday, September 15, 2015 4:23:54 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/31/2007
Posts: 304
Metasploit wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
Equity at 36.75 low a few days ago and on good volumes..Safcom at 12.60 low a few days ago and on good volumes..I was spot on these

HFCK building demand and set for an upthrust##trading the oscillations


Equity been on a crazy rally from a low of 36.75 (more than 20%).Price almost overtaking KCB..This should be a good exit point.

You have spoken.my thoughts too


Equity closes at 47 with a solid demand of 200,000 shares at 47 against a supply of less than 30k at 48,49 and 50..RSI at 70 on a bear market!!whats cooking???All time HIGH AT 55..
KCB stuck and trying to overcome support of 46 now turned resistance..

A def peak for both

FED meeting on sep 16/17..I expected fear to be on the markets this week

Smart money is buying into Equity, something big must be going on.. 3rd quarter numbers is something to watch out for
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hisah
#858 Posted : Thursday, September 17, 2015 11:27:19 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Bounce progress as expected. The real test will be if 4000 will hold on the next nosedive episode. That level has to hold if bulls are to survive!

Global equities are still undecided, but I expect another downside episode soon.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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instinct
#859 Posted : Thursday, September 17, 2015 11:36:05 AM
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Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
hisah wrote:
Bounce progress as expected. The real test will be if 4000 will hold on the next nosedive episode. That level has to hold if bulls are to survive!

Global equities are still undecided, but I expect another downside episode soon.



@hisah explain to me how the Fed increasing rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) ONLY will have a big impact in the direction of global capital.
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snipermnoma
#860 Posted : Thursday, September 17, 2015 7:23:54 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
hisah wrote:
Bounce progress as expected. The real test will be if 4000 will hold on the next nosedive episode. That level has to hold if bulls are to survive!

Global equities are still undecided, but I expect another downside episode soon.


Meanwhile USD to Kes. has been hovered around 105 for two weeks (one might say at least Kes is not sliding but with all the intervention why is it not improving either?)

In the same two weeks NSE 20 has been in a narrow band 4125 to 4260.

today 91 T-bill rate at 14.486%, higher than 182 T-bill which is at 13.861% and higher than the coupon on most bonds.

This points to a recovery without legs. The steam will run out soon. I agree with @hisah 4000 will be tested with support at 3930.79 as per @mnandii post
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