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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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hisah wrote:So NSE has decided of late not to be reporting or misreporting the indices closing values... What will happen when the market falls rapidly on those days when trading will be suspended as circuit breakers trigger? Very bad this. And when pandemonium strikes  Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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USDKES!!! I'm now really concerned with this trend. NSE20 will have to price in this weak KES as the market is still not sure about the profit warnings! When that reality check zone (capitulation/despair) is hit, the correction will be awesome! Keep your cash nicely...  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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hisah wrote:USDKES!!! I'm now really concerned with this trend. NSE20 will have to price in this weak KES as the market is still not sure about the profit warnings! When that reality check zone (capitulation/despair) is hit, the correction will be awesome! Keep your cash nicely... Things are thick and getting thicker nse20 stagnating around 4150 the last week, shilling still sliding now at 105.1470 looks like it will break 107 and the nse20 below 4000. Cash is king!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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It's getting uglier and uglier by the day. If you are to do a roll call on the countries that have already tapped out/ run out of ammo thus far, the statistics are astounding. This could be worse than the GFC considering how much the markets are largely in sync this time and the main show is yet to unfold. If this was only an NSE bear things would have been a lot better but as it stands our market is just but a pawn in the bigger puzzle especially considering our reserves are down to a bare minimum. It's hard to rule out anything at this point coz even a sub 2000 index is on the cards. Might sound preposterous but could very well happen in this global bear. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,552 Location: nairobi
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lochaz-index wrote:It's getting uglier and uglier by the day. If you are to do a roll call on the countries that have already tapped out/ run out of ammo thus far, the statistics are astounding.
This could be worse than the GFC considering how much the markets are largely in sync this time and the main show is yet to unfold.
If this was only an NSE bear things would have been a lot better but as it stands our market is just but a pawn in the bigger puzzle especially considering our reserves are down to a bare minimum.
It's hard to rule out anything at this point coz even a sub 2000 index is on the cards. Might sound preposterous but could very well happen in this global bear. Indeed, this is a bad year.. No one saw it coming apart from myself
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/15/2013 Posts: 1,977 Location: Here
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obiero wrote:lochaz-index wrote:It's getting uglier and uglier by the day. If you are to do a roll call on the countries that have already tapped out/ run out of ammo thus far, the statistics are astounding.
This could be worse than the GFC considering how much the markets are largely in sync this time and the main show is yet to unfold.
If this was only an NSE bear things would have been a lot better but as it stands our market is just but a pawn in the bigger puzzle especially considering our reserves are down to a bare minimum.
It's hard to rule out anything at this point coz even a sub 2000 index is on the cards. Might sound preposterous but could very well happen in this global bear. Indeed, this is a bad year.. No one saw it coming apart from myself Many saw it. There were songs all over here that 2015 will be a bad year. You were among the seers  Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Boris Boyka wrote:obiero wrote:lochaz-index wrote:It's getting uglier and uglier by the day. If you are to do a roll call on the countries that have already tapped out/ run out of ammo thus far, the statistics are astounding.
This could be worse than the GFC considering how much the markets are largely in sync this time and the main show is yet to unfold.
If this was only an NSE bear things would have been a lot better but as it stands our market is just but a pawn in the bigger puzzle especially considering our reserves are down to a bare minimum.
It's hard to rule out anything at this point coz even a sub 2000 index is on the cards. Might sound preposterous but could very well happen in this global bear. Indeed, this is a bad year.. No one saw it coming apart from myself Many saw it. There were songs all over here that 2015 will be a bad year. You were among the seers @Obiero suffering from selection amnesia. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,552 Location: nairobi
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sparkly wrote:Boris Boyka wrote:obiero wrote:lochaz-index wrote:It's getting uglier and uglier by the day. If you are to do a roll call on the countries that have already tapped out/ run out of ammo thus far, the statistics are astounding.
This could be worse than the GFC considering how much the markets are largely in sync this time and the main show is yet to unfold.
If this was only an NSE bear things would have been a lot better but as it stands our market is just but a pawn in the bigger puzzle especially considering our reserves are down to a bare minimum.
It's hard to rule out anything at this point coz even a sub 2000 index is on the cards. Might sound preposterous but could very well happen in this global bear. Indeed, this is a bad year.. No one saw it coming apart from myself Many saw it. There were songs all over here that 2015 will be a bad year. You were among the seers @Obiero suffering from selection amnesia. Haiya. Kweli sikumbuki hio maneno ikisemwa.. :) Iv seen my capital being murdered, currently at a paper loss position of KES 0.25m which would have been steeper at KES 0.51m; incase I had not offloaded KCB in full. I chose not to sell coz of belief that we shall turn a corner sometime in the near future. KQ in particular shall shock the hell out of most naysayers here
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/3/2014 Posts: 245
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snipermnoma wrote:hisah wrote:USDKES!!! I'm now really concerned with this trend. NSE20 will have to price in this weak KES as the market is still not sure about the profit warnings! When that reality check zone (capitulation/despair) is hit, the correction will be awesome! Keep your cash nicely... Things are thick and getting thicker nse20 stagnating around 4150 the last week, shilling still sliding now at 105.1470 looks like it will break 107 and the nse20 below 4000. Cash is king! Take a look at nigeria for sneak preview of what is coming. Black market USD rate 25% higher and widening. Our brothers in nigeria have to engage in all manner of trickery including applying for more than 1 atm to circumvent the CBN withdrawal limits and oil headed lower, an economy that virtually imports everything life will be nearly impossible for those not living on banana island. In the world of securities, courage and patience become the supreme virtues after adequate knowledge and a tested judgment are at hand.
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/1/2013 Posts: 257
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Out of the 54 FY & Q2 announcements done this season on a q/q %PAT Positive PAT results -26-(48.1%) Negative & profit warnings results-28-(51.8%) expect a gloomy FY reporting come Feb/Mar 2016. No diagnosis,no pragnosis,no pragnosis no profit......Jesse livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,552 Location: nairobi
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Magnate wrote:Out of the 54 FY & Q2 announcements done this season on a q/q %PAT
Positive PAT results -26-(48.1%)
Negative & profit warnings results-28-(51.8%)
This kind of analysis gives me the shivers
expect a gloomy FY reporting come Feb/Mar 2016.
HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/16/2009 Posts: 994
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I hope KRA is making downward revenue revisions appropriately. This will be a tough year for the taxman. Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Since NSE self listed and its stock rallied heavily the market topped out. I wonder how many noticed this while international biz news was reporting on the sizable rally of NSE20 since 2012. Those rosy headlines always offer a solid bull trap. I'm yet to see sombre NSE headlines outlining a very pessimistic outlook. Usually happens during the capitulation or despair phase. When the support at 4000 level is broken down the slide will not be gentle. The capitulation phase will likely pop up during that endless selling cycle as hope turns into despair. The sooner this triggers the better rather than being stuck in a hopeful slow motion slide (death by a thousand cuts). $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:USDKES!!! I'm now really concerned with this trend. NSE20 will have to price in this weak KES as the market is still not sure about the profit warnings! When that reality check zone (capitulation/despair) is hit, the correction will be awesome! Keep your cash nicely... Currently trading @106.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@hisah. I would also rather a quick slide than a slow motion boring one. At least there is time to accumulate a war chest. BTW bonds are on an upward trend at the moment. The interest rates are getting sweeter and sweeter. August getting almost 13% annual rate at mmf The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Gatheuzi wrote:I hope KRA is making downward revenue revisions appropriately. This will be a tough year for the taxman.  Say that again! Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:Boris Boyka wrote:obiero wrote:lochaz-index wrote:It's getting uglier and uglier by the day. If you are to do a roll call on the countries that have already tapped out/ run out of ammo thus far, the statistics are astounding.
This could be worse than the GFC considering how much the markets are largely in sync this time and the main show is yet to unfold.
If this was only an NSE bear things would have been a lot better but as it stands our market is just but a pawn in the bigger puzzle especially considering our reserves are down to a bare minimum.
It's hard to rule out anything at this point coz even a sub 2000 index is on the cards. Might sound preposterous but could very well happen in this global bear. Indeed, this is a bad year.. No one saw it coming apart from myself Many saw it. There were songs all over here that 2015 will be a bad year. You were among the seers @Obiero suffering from selection amnesia. Haiya. Kweli sikumbuki hio maneno ikisemwa.. :) Iv seen my capital being murdered, currently at a paper loss position of KES 0.25m which would have been steeper at KES 0.51m; incase I had not offloaded KCB in full. I chose not to sell coz of belief that we shall turn a corner sometime in the near future. KQ in particular shall shock the hell out of most naysayers here For ONE Year we have been yapping about a MINIMUM Target for the NSE of 2360. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:USDKES!!! I'm now really concerned with this trend. NSE20 will have to price in this weak KES as the market is still not sure about the profit warnings! When that reality check zone (capitulation/despair) is hit, the correction will be awesome! Keep your cash nicely... Currently trading @106. USD was an investment in the 90s range. A place to hibernate?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Global markets seem to have run the rebound course. Don't be fooled by this snappish rebound. I've seen this many times and I can state for a fact that these global markets are just about to break sharply lower without warning! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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hisah wrote:Global markets seem to have run the rebound course. Don't be fooled by this snappish rebound. I've seen this many times and I can state for a fact that these global markets are just about to break sharply lower without warning! What did they inject to the Nikkei?,the highest single day rise since the GFC.
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