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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:@hisah. How long might the discount period last? And more discounts are coming, right? The profit warnings highlight that the market leaks lower as the warnings are realized at FY announcement. The market is still trying to price in those losses or profit dips. 2016 will be about who survived the loss haircuts. Then a washout after the bad news shock to setup the bottom. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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mnandii wrote:snipermnoma wrote:mnandii wrote:Continuing from post 615 above.  This chart is similar to the long term one in post 615 but it is from www.investing.com. My aim here is to show the sub-divisions within blue wave [a]. The fall from 5499.64 is therefore blue wave ...[..b] and is analysed below.  This is the best interpretation I have for the fall from 5499.64 high and part of the reason I am skeptical that the fall is a full-blown bear. The pattern is distinctly a zigzag pattern (5-3-5). Now, while it is possible that the move (5499.64 to 4404.72), our zigzag, may be the first leg of a leading diagonal (3-3-3-3-3), the sharpness of the fall signifies otherwise. I am therefore convinced the fall is a zigzag wave ..[..b] and should eventually be fully retraced. Please note that zigzags can be single, double or triple. The beauty with Elliott is that it is evidence-based. Thus, if price patterns would suggest a different scenario other than the rise to the 7000 mark be assured that I will be the first to jump onto that count.  For now though I will be looking for a small 5 wave move to slightly above 4906.07 to satisfy that this bullish scenario is indeed the case. A little math:Red wave (a) = {5499.64 - 4404.72} = 1094.92 We expect a Fibonacci relation between waves (a) and (c) of the zigzag. 1). If wave (c) is 0.618 X Wave (a) then our target for wave (c) becomes: 0.618 X 1094.92 = 676.66 Subtracting 676.66 from wave (b) high gives: 4906.07 - 676.66 = 4229.41 NB: This has been surpassed. 2). If wave (c) equals wave (a) then: 4906.07 - 1094.92 = 3811.15 NB: Quite likely. 3)If wave (c) is the next Fibonacci target of 1.618 X Wave (a) then: 1.618 X 1094.92 = 1771.58 The target in this case becomes: 4906.07 - 1771.58 = 3134.49 NB: Quite unlikely. Summary: I expect NSE 20 share Index to fall to about 3811 points then start a strong move up toward 4907s level. Nice trading. @mnandii The analysis is thorough and I was able to follow though to understand I probably need to go through the book (463 pages) plus practice what I learn, it might be a while. I have two questions. 1. The calculation of wave a, the figure I highlighted in blue (4404.72) should it not be 4744.66? In which case:i) wave a = 754.98 ii) 0.618x level becomes 4439.49 iii) Equal level becomes 4151.09 iii) 1.618 level becomes 3684.51 2. Where do fundamentals feature in all this? Seems to me like those go right out the window! Oh yeah! You are right. Apologies for the mistake. On 2, pls pls read the book!!! I can't emphasize enough on that. The knowledge you will get out of it will be worth it. You will also notice that there are only about 100 pages dealing with Rules and Guidelines of Wave Formation that you will need to put most effort on. So, what is 100 pages between you and success???!! Also google search 'Elliott + wave + educational + video + series'. Am sure you'll know what to do. NB: Elliott waves determine what the fundamentals will be. Not the other way round as most people think. Thanks @mnandii. I have been building my knowledge on Elliott waves.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Somebody help me. It seems the NSE people lack knowledge on keeping and disseminating data. NSE 20 Share Index on 1st, Sept. 2015 (yesterday) close is? NSE website shows : 4176.59 Bloomberg shows : 4153.21 Financial Times shows: 4600.45 investing.com also 4600.45 Which is which? Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2007 Posts: 294
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Id trust the horses mouth, ie data from NSE itself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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instinct wrote:Id trust the horses mouth, ie data from NSE itself Yah. But 4176 was a close on 31st August. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 Be ready for the moves ahead. We have been talking about a bear market for over a year now. While our timing may not have been perfect, we were certainly 'sure' that one was right ahead. Only Elliott waves can help you in these junctures ladies and gentlemen! NB: The above refers to the global markets. Strong down moves in NSE will come but, as my previous Elliott wave post suggests, we may have about two months of a bull-run. Pls try to follow the wave patterns. As Prechter says.....'Charts tell the TRUTH..'. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2007 Posts: 294
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mnandii wrote:instinct wrote:Id trust the horses mouth, ie data from NSE itself Yah. But 4176 was a close on 31st August. Ur right.. The index yesterday according to my stockbroker report was 4153, down 23 points. Turnover was 365million
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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instinct wrote:mnandii wrote:instinct wrote:Id trust the horses mouth, ie data from NSE itself Yah. But 4176 was a close on 31st August. Ur right.. The index yesterday according to my stockbroker report was 4153, down 23 points. Turnover was 365million Thanks. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Mpesa bank Dday tomorrow as exdiv triggers. Line in the sand is 13.50 where the vol spike came in during the strong selling. When the price break below that level heads to 12 the last peg will be 11.50. Beyond that it's a free fall towards 9. But I expect a bounce instead since most are expecting a slide exdiv so that the bulls are trapped again. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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mnandii wrote:Somebody help me. It seems the NSE people lack knowledge on keeping and disseminating data.
NSE 20 Share Index on 1st, Sept. 2015 (yesterday) close is?
NSE website shows : 4176.59
Bloomberg shows : 4153.21
Financial Times shows: 4600.45
investing.com also 4600.45
Which is which? mnandii wrote:instinct wrote:mnandii wrote:instinct wrote:Id trust the horses mouth, ie data from NSE itself Yah. But 4176 was a close on 31st August. Ur right.. The index yesterday according to my stockbroker report was 4153, down 23 points. Turnover was 365million Thanks. Yes Sep 1 close was 4153.21, and yes 4176.59 was Aug 31. It is quite surprising that an index can be misreported. 4600 is completely misleading!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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@Spt @hisah also looking at scenario where even with a Fed hike the USD might actually retrace from it's already bullish run.
Markets unusual. Where CBs have raised rates to counter the USD - opposite results.
I think of it as stellar results by a blue-chip but the stock reverses. Whacky mkts.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:@Spt @hisah also looking at scenario where even with a Fed hike the USD might actually retrace from it's already bullish run.
Markets unusual. Where CBs have raised rates to counter the USD - opposite results.
I think of it as stellar results by a blue-chip but the stock reverses. Whacky mkts. Matter of fact, the convo is inverse. Now it will be Sino urging the US to devalue the USD. Lol! The news feeds also moved from bashing RUS 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:@Spt @hisah also looking at scenario where even with a Fed hike the USD might actually retrace from it's already bullish run.
Markets unusual. Where CBs have raised rates to counter the USD - opposite results.
I think of it as stellar results by a blue-chip but the stock reverses. Whacky mkts. Matter of fact, the convo is inverse. Now it will be Sino urging the US to devalue the USD. Lol! The news feeds also moved from bashing RUS Very true @cde . I think the market has fully priced the anticipated rate hike . The bond yields are edging upwards as the selling pressure intensifies . The FED already lagging the market.QE being replaced by QT . @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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hisah wrote:Mpesa bank Dday tomorrow as exdiv triggers. Line in the sand is 13.50 where the vol spike came in during the strong selling. When the price break below that level heads to 12 the last peg will be 11.50. Beyond that it's a free fall towards 9. But I expect a bounce instead since most are expecting a slide exdiv so that the bulls are trapped again. I expect a bounce too for a week or so as ex-div then the scary fall .No need to sell today .Pocket the dividends and still sell at 15 before the next retracement . @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@mnandii, USDKES now approaching 105 as we head towards all time high @107  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:@Spt @hisah also looking at scenario where even with a Fed hike the USD might actually retrace from it's already bullish run.
Markets unusual. Where CBs have raised rates to counter the USD - opposite results.
I think of it as stellar results by a blue-chip but the stock reverses. Whacky mkts. Matter of fact, the convo is inverse. Now it will be Sino urging the US to devalue the USD. Lol! The news feeds also moved from bashing RUS Very true @cde . I think the market has fully priced the anticipated rate hike . The bond yields are edging upwards as the selling pressure intensifies . The FED already lagging the market.QE being replaced by QT . Interesting. There is/will still be a lot of liquidity in the system. Where will the next rotation be? Rates will still be low, varying domestics, hot-money-hostile CBs like the SNB. Markets will need a real PBOC type shocker from the FED as so far, and stripping out overvalued stocks, glut commodities, markets are oversold. EM & FM ccys? - no comment. AU, AG?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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So NSE has decided of late not to be reporting or misreporting the indices closing values... What will happen when the market falls rapidly on those days when trading will be suspended as circuit breakers trigger? $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:Mpesa bank Dday tomorrow as exdiv triggers. Line in the sand is 13.50 where the vol spike came in during the strong selling. When the price breaks below that level it'll head to 12 where the last peg will be 11.50. Beyond that it's a free fall towards 9. But I expect a bounce instead since most are expecting a slide exdiv so that the bulls are trapped again. Exdiv today. Bulls still guarding with zeal the 13.50 peg. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:Mpesa bank Dday tomorrow as exdiv triggers. Line in the sand is 13.50 where the vol spike came in during the strong selling. When the price break below that level heads to 12 the last peg will be 11.50. Beyond that it's a free fall towards 9. But I expect a bounce instead since most are expecting a slide exdiv so that the bulls are trapped again. I expect a bounce too for a week or so as ex-div then the scary fall .No need to sell today .Pocket the dividends and still sell at 15 before the next retracement . Hope guys sold out today ex-div at 15. Now we can go on holiday  Dividend cheques will be out before 25th Dec Wow! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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On Social MoodThe downturn in Education is here, ladies and gentlemen. Signs of a mood peak are: - Record number of NEW Universities. - Record Number of Students attending University. - Record Salary Award for Teachers. - Record Tuition Fees - Record Helb Loan Balances The latter is quite significant. Going forward, and as Social Mood turns from Optimism to Pessimism ( i.e, as the Stock Market Falls), expect deterioration in Educational standards, Less Regard for Higher Education, Fall in Tuition Fees Charged, Significant Increase in Helb Repayment Defaults and a collapse in Public Education System. If your salary depends on the Education Sector take precaution now. Best. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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