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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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mnandii
#781 Posted : Saturday, August 29, 2015 2:33:40 PM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Asteroid 'to destroy Earth in four weeks' as theorists claim September 21 could be our last day

Quote:
USA: Earth will be destroyed in four weeks as a giant asteroid heads towards our planet, it has been claimed. Conspiracy theorists claim that the world will be destroyed upon its arrival between September 21 and 28. The origins of the claim come from self-proclaimed prophet Efrain Rodriguez, who has passed his research onto NASA. Mr Rodriguez' prediction appears to support the Blood Moon Prophecy, with September 28 marking the last of four 'blood moons'.

It is claimed that disaster looms when a lunar eclipse - which last took place in April 2014 - is followed by six full moons. He says he had a vision of the asteroid "entering the airspace of the town of Arecibo in Puerto Rico, striking the sea between the island of Mona and Mayaguez and triggering a magnitude 12 earthquake".



smile smile smile

link

Yah! We have been expecting carnage in the Stock Market anyway.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#782 Posted : Monday, August 31, 2015 7:03:02 AM
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Morning guys.

NSE 20 Share Index Latest as on 31st Aug., 2015.



The question still remains whether we have our 'black' wave (B) complete at the 5499.64 level. Counting the fall from that level is certainly a challenge as shown below.



The best interpretation for the fall would be an impulse wave consisting of 'red' waves (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) and (iv), culminating at 4080.83 or slightly below that. The 'look' is however not nicely consistent with an impulse e.g we should expect an elongated third wave (wave (iii)), which is not the case here.

Also, following the Elliott rule that third waves can never be the shortest of waves one, three and five, there is a level which if the NSE manages to drop to will completely negate this impulse count.

So, wave (i) is already longer than our proposed waves (iii) and (v). To maintain the Impulse count then, wave (v) should not be longer than wave (iii).

Wave (iii) = 4906.07 - 4317.23 = 588.84

Wave (v) (so far) = 4519.63 - 4080.83 = 438.80

NSE 20 Index should not fall below ( 4519.63 - 588.84 = 3930.79) in order for us to maintain the impulse wave scenario.

The alternate scenario I am considering is a double zigzag fall from the 5499.64 level.

Price action will confirm which scenario takes the day.
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mnandii
#783 Posted : Monday, August 31, 2015 7:20:29 AM
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snipermnoma wrote:
mnandii wrote:
Continuing from post 615 above.



This chart is similar to the long term one in post 615 but it is from www.investing.com. My aim here is to show the sub-divisions within blue wave [a]. The fall from 5499.64 is therefore blue wave ...[..b] and is analysed below.



This is the best interpretation I have for the fall from 5499.64 high and part of the reason I am skeptical that the fall is a full-blown bear. The pattern is distinctly a zigzag pattern (5-3-5).

Now, while it is possible that the move (5499.64 to 4404.72), our zigzag, may be the first leg of a leading diagonal (3-3-3-3-3), the sharpness of the fall signifies otherwise. I am therefore convinced the fall is a zigzag wave ..[..b] and should eventually be fully retraced. Please note that zigzags can be single, double or triple.

The beauty with Elliott is that it is evidence-based. Thus, if price patterns would suggest a different scenario other than the rise to the 7000 mark be assured that I will be the first to jump onto that count. Sad For now though I will be looking for a small 5 wave move to slightly above 4906.07 to satisfy that this bullish scenario is indeed the case.

A little math:

Red wave (a) = {5499.64 - 4404.72} = 1094.92

We expect a Fibonacci relation between waves (a) and (c) of the zigzag.

1). If wave (c) is 0.618 X Wave (a) then our target for wave (c) becomes:

0.618 X 1094.92 = 676.66

Subtracting 676.66 from wave (b) high gives:

4906.07 - 676.66 = 4229.41 NB: This has been surpassed.

2). If wave (c) equals wave (a) then:

4906.07 - 1094.92 = 3811.15 NB: Quite likely.

3)If wave (c) is the next Fibonacci target of 1.618 X Wave (a) then:

1.618 X 1094.92 = 1771.58

The target in this case becomes:

4906.07 - 1771.58 = 3134.49 NB: Quite unlikely.

Summary:

I expect NSE 20 share Index to fall to about 3811 points then start a strong move up toward 4907s level.

Nice trading.



@mnandii The analysis is thorough and I was able to follow though to understand I probably need to go through the book (463 pages) plus practice what I learn, it might be a while. I have two questions.

1. The calculation of wave a, the figure I highlighted in blue (4404.72) should it not be 4744.66? In which case:
i) wave a = 754.98
ii) 0.618x level becomes 4439.49
iii) Equal level becomes 4151.09
iii) 1.618 level becomes 3684.51

2. Where do fundamentals feature in all this? Seems to me like those go right out the window!


Oh yeah! You are right. Apologies for the mistake.

On 2, pls pls read the book!!! I can't emphasize enough on that. The knowledge you will get out of it will be worth it. You will also notice that there are only about 100 pages dealing with Rules and Guidelines of Wave Formation that you will need to put most effort on. So, what is 100 pages between you and success???!!

Also google search 'Elliott + wave + educational + video + series'. Am sure you'll know what to do.

NB: Elliott waves determine what the fundamentals will be. Not the other way round as most people think.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Metasploit
#784 Posted : Monday, August 31, 2015 2:55:49 PM
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Equity at 36.75 low a few days ago and on good volumes..Safcom at 12.60 low a few days ago and on good volumes..I was spot on these

HFCK building demand and set for an upthrust##trading the oscillations

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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instinct
#785 Posted : Monday, August 31, 2015 3:10:39 PM
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True...tho Scom might dip ex-dividend frm wednesday.

On a positive note, world markets stabilized today.. And china is cracking down on rumour mongers who caused the crash:)
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Metasploit
#786 Posted : Monday, August 31, 2015 3:13:12 PM
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[img=http://s11.postimg.org/hfdc9gitr/HFCK.jpg]

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Metasploit
#787 Posted : Monday, August 31, 2015 3:15:40 PM
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Metasploit wrote:
Equity at 36.75 low a few days ago and on good volumes..Safcom at 12.60 low a few days ago and on good volumes..I was spot on these

HFCK building demand and set for an upthrust##trading the oscillations




“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Cornelius Vanderbilt
#788 Posted : Monday, August 31, 2015 4:02:41 PM
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the clever ones are sneaking in !
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hisah
#789 Posted : Tuesday, September 01, 2015 4:51:43 AM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
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August closes with NSE20 posting a 5.41% decline from 4415 to 4176 as global markets also posted their worst monthly decline since GFC. NSE20 also had its critical support at 4000 level get tested as fear intensified at the global markets. A lot of volume spike also appeared in August in the heavyweight counters as the slide accelerated.

September is here and global trading desk will fire back to life as summer vacation ends. My take is between now and October the markets will be very volatile. The August panic is not yet complete meaning more shakeouts are coming. If the fed does hike the USD rate, stocks will be sold. If not the usd bull will derail badly and stocks/commodities will gain. In October will IMF agree to give chingland more powers in their vote structure? This is where another bump will appear in the global markets.

September and October will be high adrelanine months. If you can't stand that endless churning stomach feeling stay away from the markets.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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TheGeek
#790 Posted : Tuesday, September 01, 2015 7:07:19 AM
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hisah wrote:
August closes with NSE20 posting a 5.41% decline from 4415 to 4176 as global markets also posted their worst monthly decline since GFC. NSE20 also had its critical support at 4000 level get tested as fear intensified at the global markets. A lot of volume spike also appeared in August in the heavyweight counters as the slide accelerated.

September is here and global trading desk will fire back to life as summer vacation ends. My take is between now and October the markets will be very volatile. The August panic is not yet complete meaning more shakeouts are coming. If the fed does hike the USD rate, stocks will be sold. If not the usd bull will derail badly and stocks/commodities will gain. In October will IMF agree to give chingland more powers in their vote structure? This is where another bump will appear in the global markets.

September and October will be high adrelanine months. If you can't stand that endless churning stomach feeling stay away from the markets.



Chingland government still covertly buying stocks, locally short term government paper grossing nearly 14% and MMFs higher, bottom fishing will be a dangerous affair.
In the world of securities, courage and patience become the supreme virtues after adequate knowledge and a tested judgment are at hand.
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mnandii
#791 Posted : Tuesday, September 01, 2015 7:37:46 AM
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The bear in Safcom


It appears 17.90 high will maintain for a long time in this giant.

After the 17.90 high Safcom fell to 12.60 low in a leading diagonal pattern. I expect Safcom to drop in blue wave [..b] (likely slightly below 12.60), then rise in blue wave [c] and thereby completing wave 2. As shown by the trendlines, I expect wave 2 at about the 16/- area. Afterwards expect Safcom to fall strongly.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#792 Posted : Tuesday, September 01, 2015 7:42:36 AM
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hisah wrote:
August closes with NSE20 posting a 5.41% decline from 4415 to 4176 as global markets also posted their worst monthly decline since GFC. NSE20 also had its critical support at 4000 level get tested as fear intensified at the global markets. A lot of volume spike also appeared in August in the heavyweight counters as the slide accelerated.

September is here and global trading desk will fire back to life as summer vacation ends. My take is between now and October the markets will be very volatile. The August panic is not yet complete meaning more shakeouts are coming. If the fed does hike the USD rate, stocks will be sold. If not the usd bull will derail badly and stocks/commodities will gain. In October will IMF agree to give chingland more powers in their vote structure? This is where another bump will appear in the global markets.

September and October will be high adrelanine months. If you can't stand that endless churning stomach feeling stay away from the markets.


Applause Applause Applause

Let volatility come!
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#793 Posted : Tuesday, September 01, 2015 7:50:14 AM
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instinct wrote:
True...tho Scom might dip ex-dividend frm wednesday.

On a positive note, world markets stabilized today.. And china is cracking down on rumour mongers who caused the crash:)



d'oh! d'oh!
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hisah
#794 Posted : Tuesday, September 01, 2015 10:36:40 AM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
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Until NSE20 experiences proper volatility I won't accept that a solid floor is being setup. Capitulation and despair must always take place before a firm bottoming process begins.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mnandii
#795 Posted : Tuesday, September 01, 2015 11:14:37 AM
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The Wave Principle of Human Social Behaviour and The New Science of Socionomics
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mnandii
#796 Posted : Tuesday, September 01, 2015 11:16:56 AM
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hisah wrote:
Until NSE20 experiences proper volatility I won't accept that a solid floor is being setup. Capitulation and despair must always take place before a firm bottoming process begins.

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#797 Posted : Tuesday, September 01, 2015 11:23:22 AM
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Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Cde Monomotapa
#798 Posted : Tuesday, September 01, 2015 1:48:05 PM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
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hisah wrote:
August closes with NSE20 posting a 5.41% decline from 4415 to 4176 as global markets also posted their worst monthly decline since GFC. NSE20 also had its critical support at 4000 level get tested as fear intensified at the global markets. A lot of volume spike also appeared in August in the heavyweight counters as the slide accelerated.

September is here and global trading desk will fire back to life as summer vacation ends. My take is between now and October the markets will be very volatile. The August panic is not yet complete meaning more shakeouts are coming. If the fed does hike the USD rate, stocks will be sold. If not the usd bull will derail badly and stocks/commodities will gain. In October will IMF agree to give chingland more powers in their vote structure? This is where another bump will appear in the global markets.

September and October will be high adrelanine months. If you can't stand that endless churning stomach feeling stay away from the markets.


Red + Green = Yellow.

Sino already cut the redtape for offshore investing and to more sectors than extractive. Covered on the IL thread.

The above is coupled by the diversification of Sino's FX reserves.

So, Fed hikes, Sino continues on an investment spree 'burning' the USD in the mediumterm as the RMB follows. The strategic RMB hubs in place around the globe and that makes for a self styled SDR. Awesome...

No hike and it's business as usual*
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hisah
#799 Posted : Tuesday, September 01, 2015 2:03:31 PM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
hisah wrote:
August closes with NSE20 posting a 5.41% decline from 4415 to 4176 as global markets also posted their worst monthly decline since GFC. NSE20 also had its critical support at 4000 level get tested as fear intensified at the global markets. A lot of volume spike also appeared in August in the heavyweight counters as the slide accelerated.

September is here and global trading desk will fire back to life as summer vacation ends. My take is between now and October the markets will be very volatile. The August panic is not yet complete meaning more shakeouts are coming. If the fed does hike the USD rate, stocks will be sold. If not the usd bull will derail badly and stocks/commodities will gain. In October will IMF agree to give chingland more powers in their vote structure? This is where another bump will appear in the global markets.

September and October will be high adrelanine months. If you can't stand that endless churning stomach feeling stay away from the markets.


Red + Green = Yellow.

Sino already cut the redtape for offshore investing and to more sectors than extractive. Covered on the IL thread.

The above is coupled by the diversification of Sino's FX reserves.

So, Fed hikes, Sino continues on an investment spree 'burning' the USD in the mediumterm as the RMB follows. The strategic RMB hubs in place around the globe and that makes for a self styled SDR. Awesome...

No hike and it's business as usual*


Chingland has outwit the Fed by that devaluation trick.

Meanwhile the FTSE KE NSE15 daily chart looks like a similar rebound setup at the beginning of August. No legs. This rebound just like in August will be erased by month end.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Aguytrying
#800 Posted : Tuesday, September 01, 2015 2:59:44 PM
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@hisah. How long might the discount period last? And more discounts are coming, right?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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