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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
hisah
#661 Posted : Monday, August 17, 2015 6:55:56 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
instinct wrote:
what do you mean NBK? is there anything i missed?

Q2 vs Q1 results indicate that risk ratios went down!? While the other banks results so far indicate otherwise. I find those NBK results to be fishy. Dubai bank saga now makes me even more concerned since it was long overdue. The econ is on course to continue slumping. NPLs will obviously bulge. In this macroecon state any bank fudging risk ratios to look rosy I view that as suspect. If all was well, why is mr market not sharply pushing the bank stocks up with the current H1 results?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#662 Posted : Monday, August 17, 2015 7:08:22 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
TheGeek wrote:
hisah wrote:
I'll start keep track of mpesa bank going forward. This is the main peg that will determine how low the market tanks next!


The CFO certainly thinks its exit time SAFARICOM CFO SELLS OFF STAKE IN COMPANY

When was that exit? That's the reference point. Good results and the elevated share price had long flashed the signal that the share had been setup for a selling bout. I expect it to play out like 2010. Thus the next market tank episode comment.

Waiting to see NSE starting those derivatives while CBK is in a 'shorting' mood. The fat tail will be obese...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
VituVingiSana
#663 Posted : Monday, August 17, 2015 10:57:55 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
instinct wrote:
what do you mean NBK? is there anything i missed?

Q2 vs Q1 results indicate that risk ratios went down!? While the other banks results so far indicate otherwise. I find those NBK results to be fishy. Dubai bank saga now makes me even more concerned since it was long overdue. The econ is on course to continue slumping. NPLs will obviously bulge. In this macroecon state any bank fudging risk ratios to look rosy I view that as suspect. If all was well, why is mr market not sharply pushing the bank stocks up with the current H1 results?

Shady bank. Shady (major) shareholders. Shady capital structure. Shady results.

NBK manages funds for GoK (ministries and institutions) but when GoK is tightening the screws, what happens? [Think interbank borrowing]
What if GoK withdraw its deposits to reduce the need to borrow using T-Bills? [Deposits plummet, loans have to be reduced, interbank borrowing]
NPLs are a joke. The Provisions are a bigger joke. NBK provisioning level is lower than DTB. A bank like DTB has consistently had low NPLs but I think this is of their customer base and loan underwriting standards. NBK had just 1.1% of the Loan Book as provisions. So unless, they wrote off tons of NPLs, the provision is barely above the 1% General Provision required by CBK.

Anyway, I am not in this boat but just watching from the shore!
"When the tide goes out, we will know who was swimming naked"
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
instinct
#664 Posted : Tuesday, August 18, 2015 5:41:37 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
Dear experts are we still in a bear market? There seems to be a lul all over..no more big losses and a few gains here and there
hisah
#665 Posted : Tuesday, August 18, 2015 10:34:02 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
instinct wrote:
Dear experts are we still in a bear market? There seems to be a lul all over..no more big losses and a few gains here and there

The market is consolidating (taking a breather) after the steep selloff.

All eyes are still focussed on CBK in the next meeting. A hawkish CB makes equity markets jittery due to the liquidity squeeze via interest rate hikes.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
whiteowl
#666 Posted : Tuesday, August 18, 2015 11:13:17 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
hisah wrote:
instinct wrote:
Dear experts are we still in a bear market? There seems to be a lul all over..no more big losses and a few gains here and there

The market is consolidating (taking a breather) after the steep selloff.

All eyes are still focussed on CBK in the next meeting. A hawkish CB makes equity markets jittery due to the liquidity squeeze via interest rate hikes.


I think they'll raise the rate by 10 bps just to show us they still mean business. Vacuum cleaning all liquidity
VituVingiSana
#667 Posted : Tuesday, August 18, 2015 11:15:24 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
whiteowl wrote:
hisah wrote:
instinct wrote:
Dear experts are we still in a bear market? There seems to be a lul all over..no more big losses and a few gains here and there

The market is consolidating (taking a breather) after the steep selloff.

All eyes are still focussed on CBK in the next meeting. A hawkish CB makes equity markets jittery due to the liquidity squeeze via interest rate hikes.


I think they'll raise the rate by 10 bps just to show us they still mean business. Vacuum cleaning all liquidity
10 bps is nothing. I fear it could be higher BUT the new CBK governor is a smart chap. It's better to leave interest rates alone and let the KES depreciate.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sparkly
#668 Posted : Wednesday, August 19, 2015 7:55:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
instinct wrote:
Dear experts are we still in a bear market? There seems to be a lul all over..no more big losses and a few gains here and there


I take the approach of staying invested in good value counters rather than timing the market. There will always be underpriced shares and overpriced shares. That said, I expect further discounts in the financials and Mpesa.

Life is short. Live passionately.
Muthawamunene
#669 Posted : Wednesday, August 19, 2015 10:34:29 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
instinct wrote:
Dear experts are we still in a bear market? There seems to be a lul all over..no more big losses and a few gains here and there

The market is consolidating (taking a breather) after the steep selloff.

All eyes are still focussed on CBK in the next meeting. A hawkish CB makes equity markets jittery due to the liquidity squeeze via interest rate hikes.



My biggest eye (the left one), is more on the U.S Fed this coming September. The effect of that interest rate hike (should they do so), should be interesting to watch. And a great learning experience.

Investors may flee emerging markets for U.S bonds or may flee U.S markets in anticipation of lower demand for U.S goods.

I am with pen and paper taking notes.
bird_man
#670 Posted : Wednesday, August 19, 2015 10:36:10 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/2/2006
Posts: 1,206
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
instinct wrote:
Dear experts are we still in a bear market? There seems to be a lul all over..no more big losses and a few gains here and there


I take the approach of staying invested in good value counters rather than timing the market. There will always be underpriced shares and overpriced shares. That said, I expect further discounts in the financials and Mpesa.


@Sparkly, do you expect lower pricing on KCB & EQTY?
Formally employed people often live their employers' dream & forget about their own.
mnandii
#671 Posted : Wednesday, August 19, 2015 4:21:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#672 Posted : Wednesday, August 19, 2015 4:25:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
bird_man wrote:
sparkly wrote:
instinct wrote:
Dear experts are we still in a bear market? There seems to be a lul all over..no more big losses and a few gains here and there


I take the approach of staying invested in good value counters rather than timing the market. There will always be underpriced shares and overpriced shares. That said, I expect further discounts in the financials and Mpesa.


@Sparkly, do you expect lower pricing on KCB & EQTY?


As suggested in my last post, the NSE 20 as it stands Elliott-Wave-wise should have one more final bull-run before the BIG fall. Am watching the index keenly and will post with new information as and when warranted.

Bottom line, I expect the 4906 level to be taken out soon.

Best.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#673 Posted : Wednesday, August 19, 2015 5:01:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:
bird_man wrote:
sparkly wrote:
instinct wrote:
Dear experts are we still in a bear market? There seems to be a lul all over..no more big losses and a few gains here and there


I take the approach of staying invested in good value counters rather than timing the market. There will always be underpriced shares and overpriced shares. That said, I expect further discounts in the financials and Mpesa.


@Sparkly, do you expect lower pricing on KCB & EQTY?


As suggested in my last post, the NSE 20 as it stands Elliott-Wave-wise should have one more final bull-run before the BIG fall. Am watching the index keenly and will post with new information as and when warranted.

Bottom line, I expect the 4906 level to be taken out soon.

Best.


And, eerrh, it's safe to say 4317.23 low hit on 5th August, 2015, is a strong support and should not be violated any time soon.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
lochaz-index
#674 Posted : Wednesday, August 19, 2015 5:32:01 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
I don't think there is much upside to the market left. The lull currently in play is more like a sectional /counter by counter pump and dump before we head lower. Achieving any significant uplift to the market would be too taxing on anyone since the fundies are in the dumps.

Round two of cbr hikes in the works.

The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
mnandii
#675 Posted : Wednesday, August 19, 2015 9:17:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
EWI on China.



“Preview” of what to expect next for Chinese stocks: Government intervention continues to buy stocks in Shanghai. In the long-term battle between governments and markets, our bet is with markets. The 4170 level of the upper daily Keltner channel is expected to contain this corrective rally in Shanghai. Get FREE market insights delivered straight to your inbox >> http://bit.ly/1hpvoFo
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#676 Posted : Wednesday, August 19, 2015 9:22:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
lochaz-index wrote:
I don't think there is much upside to the market left. The lull currently in play is more like a sectional /counter by counter pump and dump before we head lower. Achieving any significant uplift to the market would be too taxing on anyone since the fundies are in the dumps.

Round two of cbr hikes in the works.



Prechter states this about Elliott Waves:

The most useful Elliott Wave pattern predictions are ones which no-one else expects.

As it stands now, almost no one here at Wazua is talking for any upside to the NSE Index. Time will tell.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#677 Posted : Thursday, August 20, 2015 5:49:17 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#678 Posted : Thursday, August 20, 2015 9:09:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Quote:
Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

I simply cannot stress enough how important Greece is to freedom, liberty and civilization across the globe. Greece is not a one-off, or merely a small nation in big trouble that holds little relevance for the rest of us. Greece is everything.

What is happening to Greece follows the exact same game plan of what will eventually happen to every other supposedly sovereign nation. First there is an explosion of debt. Then a crisis. Then a bailout. Then creditor imposed hardship is forced upon the average population, in conjunction with unlimited bailouts for the bankers and other oligarch criminals. Finally, when a public which mistakenly believes it is living in a democracy exercises its right to national sovereignty, the sad truth is exposed. They are not a people living under a free political system.

It is precisely because Greece has progressed further along than any other Western nation into this neo-feudal hellhole, that it presents an incredible opportunity for resistance, The Greeks, quite literally, must fight for their very lives. Having been pushed into a corner, they will be forced to experiment in myriad ways if they desire to escape the criminal oligarch vortex in one piece.


Source
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Muthawamunene
#679 Posted : Thursday, August 20, 2015 1:23:12 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
Lakini leo market kunakaa ku-nasty. Will mbesha be able to prop up the slide on 20 share index? Lets wait for 4 pm and see.
sparkly
#680 Posted : Thursday, August 20, 2015 1:41:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
mnandii wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
I don't think there is much upside to the market left. The lull currently in play is more like a sectional /counter by counter pump and dump before we head lower. Achieving any significant uplift to the market would be too taxing on anyone since the fundies are in the dumps.

Round two of cbr hikes in the works.



Prechter states this about Elliott Waves:

The most useful Elliott Wave pattern predictions are ones which no-one else expects.

As it stands now, almost no one here at Wazua is talking for any upside to the NSE Index. Time will tell.


The upside will come and when it comes we shall be fully invested and waiting smile.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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