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Agriculture Stocks - Moto Moto
VituVingiSana
#81 Posted : Wednesday, March 10, 2010 10:08:28 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Kakuzi 72/- & poised to go higher as Tea prices continue staying high while production booms thanks to rains.

Sasini 12.55 & supply dries up. Tea & coffee prices up. Rain, rain is the icing. merali notwithstanding. I would sell out coz the cream will be skimmed.

Williamson 180 but lots of potential. 1H EPS was 24/- (some of it biological gains) but this will be converted to cash as tea sales are brisk. Demand for tea remains unabated. Book value 300+. Also owns large part of a nice building in Community.

Kapchorua 135 is Williamson's younger sister & same goes here. Apparently they had acquired a farm 2 years ago. It is paying off. 1H EPS 11+ & debt almost paid off. Debt-free is a nice place to be. A revalued book value could be over 200/- & a lot of it would be new cash from sales.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#82 Posted : Wednesday, March 10, 2010 10:54:17 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
BTW, the major international tea firms are buying up tea plantations in Rwanda & Uganda... I expect Kapchorua & Williamson are in their cross-hairs...

Williamson sold its Indian tea farms 2-3 years ago... Only a matter of time...

Unilever Tea (Kenya) bought out the minority shareholders 2 years ago...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
FundamentAli
#83 Posted : Wednesday, March 10, 2010 1:20:07 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/4/2008
Posts: 1,289
Location: Nairobi
See my earlier post in July last year on 'El Nino is back!'. I predicted that this counters will rise. Problem is I did not put my money where mouth was. Sad
guru267
#84 Posted : Wednesday, March 10, 2010 3:20:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
these counters is making alot of investors very rich.. my only hope is the speculators know when to jump out...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Gordon Gekko
#85 Posted : Thursday, March 11, 2010 7:58:37 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
"these counters is making alot of investors very rich.. my only hope is the speculators know when to jump out". Rich is an understatement. Filthy rich is more like it!!! But I love the ride, 77% cap gain so far on Merali.
kishindo
#86 Posted : Thursday, March 11, 2010 8:39:35 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/11/2008
Posts: 121
Sasini 47000 demand @ 13.80 against 1000 supply. Kesho it hits 15.0 and i offload 30% more and keep the rest till March 2011,
but the temptation to hold is strong!
Less is more....for Architects only!!
mufasa
#87 Posted : Thursday, March 11, 2010 9:14:04 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 206
At this rate I may offload sasisni mid next week, I predict it will hit 16/= then begin a free fall to 12.00/= and stabilize arond there forsome time. Thats my 2cents worth.
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
ecstacy
#88 Posted : Thursday, March 11, 2010 4:30:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
think again for now...I'm back into Sasini...It hopes to boost its pre-tax profit by over 400% in the next 2 years from Ksh. 108 million to Ksh. 579 million by 2012 buoyed by successful diversification and value addition projects. Meanwhile, India a major tea producer didn't receive rain since Nov 2009 and this points to sustained high tea prices..
muganda
#89 Posted : Thursday, March 11, 2010 4:51:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,905
@ecstacy, have to admire your tenacity. Just as a learning point however, if you're now in for 2 years, why did you sell the first time?

Or was it just a short term play then?

Realise time has proven you very right on the Kenol and Sasini calls you made in end of January.
ecstacy
#90 Posted : Thursday, March 11, 2010 5:11:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
When 'instability' grips a stock and I am in an unexpectantly significant profit position, I stopped getting greedy. You lock profits for a return at an opportune time. That time with the information I've shared is now....heck, stocks is a lot like sex in high school - everyone pretends to know everything, few actually know anything, and nobody ever lets on about what they don't know!!
sparkly
#91 Posted : Thursday, March 11, 2010 5:22:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
One thing this market has taught me is 'never follow the experts' . determine your risk appetite, set your goals, stick to your gameplan and make money. Chasing stocks is a baaad idea.
Life is short. Live passionately.
ProverB
#92 Posted : Friday, March 12, 2010 7:50:44 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
..noticed aly khan satchu had a sizable chunk of Rea Vipingo shares..check out annual report top 10 shareholders.
I realize shareholding proportion might not mean much..but when that share holding is by a renown shares trader...might mean something...but then ..that was as at Dec 31st 2008...i year has passed.

..just a thought. smile
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
mkonomtupu
#93 Posted : Friday, March 12, 2010 1:40:58 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
sparkly wrote:
One thing this market has taught me is 'never follow the experts' . determine your risk appetite, set your goals, stick to your gameplan and make money. Chasing stocks is a baaad idea.

I gave some experts 110,000/- to invest for me on quality stocks shock on me i only got 66,000/- back after redeeming my investment after 2 years due to the expert's bad market moves.

There are no experts on stocks just seasoned traders with differing views on the market outlook.
Risk what you can afford to lose.
sparkly
#94 Posted : Friday, March 12, 2010 2:21:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
mkonomtupu wrote:
sparkly wrote:
One thing this market has taught me is 'never follow the experts' . determine your risk appetite, set your goals, stick to your gameplan and make money. Chasing stocks is a baaad idea.

I gave some experts 110,000/- to invest for me on quality stocks shock on me i only got 66,000/- back after redeeming my investment after 2 years due to the expert's bad market moves.

There are no experts on stocks just seasoned traders with differing views on the market outlook.
Risk what you can afford to lose.


@mkonomtupu pole. I am sure that you are now wiser. My first broker advised me to make what looking back were horrible moves.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Mkimwa
#95 Posted : Friday, March 12, 2010 4:44:40 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/26/2008
Posts: 380
Top gainers in last one month = all agricultural..

# Stock Start Price Gain % Gain
1. Kakuzi 37.00 +49.50 +133.78%
2. Sasini Tea & Coffee 8.00 +7.15 +89.38%
3. Rea Vipingo Plantations 12.85 +8.65 +67.32%
4. Kapchorua Tea Co. 94.50 +57.50 +60.85%
5. Williamson Tea Kenya 130.00 +65.00 +50.00%

Gordon Gekko
#96 Posted : Saturday, March 13, 2010 6:18:47 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Dumped half of my holdings in Sasini at 15.15. Cap gain 94%. The other half is now literally free shares.
sheep
#97 Posted : Saturday, March 13, 2010 6:34:17 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
I would rather buy on the way up and sell on the way down...the most important thing is not what the market is going to do,but rather what it has already done.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
cnn
#98 Posted : Saturday, March 13, 2010 1:03:00 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,619
@GG,you left,came in and now you have gone again,the 40 000 i got @6.50 still holds though i am very tempted to let go next week.The lot got @ 11 on monday goes tomorrow targeting a 40% gain.Its been a nice ride on merali.
Gordon Gekko
#99 Posted : Saturday, March 13, 2010 3:37:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
@cnn, thats the beauty about Merali. So erratic that if you play it well you cn make good dosh. But like @vvs, I don't trust him.
kishindo
#100 Posted : Monday, March 15, 2010 10:05:58 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/11/2008
Posts: 121
And the fall is lurking...
Less is more....for Architects only!!
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