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MSC Finally
HaMaina
#81 Posted : Thursday, August 13, 2015 7:59:34 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/23/2014
Posts: 910
I was watching yesterday's NTV news, and I couldn't help to think to myself, " If I was a fire, I'd hate to to be put out like that!" Not forgetting all those who sold out.
“You can get in way more trouble with a good idea than a bad idea, because you forget that the good idea has limits.” - Ben Graham
Muthawamunene
#82 Posted : Thursday, August 13, 2015 9:47:10 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
I allude to, and paraphrase John Nash's work on Game Theory -

Overall success in a game where players are intelligent and rational decision-makers working towards a common objective, does not come while each is pursuing their own individual interests only but when each player is pursing the group's interest in addition to their individual interests.

Key assumption being the intelligence and rationality of the players.

Opening up this market (not only the sugar market)is good under the afore mentioned assumption.

Nationalism and protectionism has not brought much benefit in history, I assume you all know that these were the root causes of the two world wars we've had.

Opportunities are abound for Kenya and Uganda. While efficiencies are great, they do come with some pain. If Kenyan sugar players can bear though the short-term pain and be creative, we will all benefit.

Kenya's biggest pit fall is that we don't like change. We fear the pain of change. We like doing the same things the same way over and over again. We rarely do value addition. This is the time to be different. To think different.

IBMs motto - THINK
Apple's motto - Think different

We all know the history behind these companies.

Njung'e
#83 Posted : Thursday, August 13, 2015 3:02:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
@Wakanyugi,

You've put it correctly in that, the problems bedeviling MSC are more managerial than competition from wherever. Take for example the fact that their production has fallen from 270K MT in 2007 to around 70K MT in 2015. What competition brought them that low? NONE! Looking further afield, the Ugandan sugar industry has just about double the capacity of MSC (Roughly 550K MT/ yr).That alone is not enough for the Ugandan population and this makes Uganda itself, a net importer alongside all other COMESA countries. What we are seeing is an industry with no capacity to satisfy the region being asked to compete against itself in order to bring the best out of the individual mills. How this can be bad for MSC (or Kenyan sugarcane growers), i really can't see. Muthawamunene's words in the post above just sums it up all. As for politicians,never mind what they do.Bupamba is just trying to find what he has lost and until you hear from the farmer himself, treat his as hot air.Thank you!smile

Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
streetwise
#84 Posted : Thursday, August 13, 2015 3:34:02 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/23/2011
Posts: 1,740
Location: Nairobi
Well put !!!!

Even though MSC is shut when you go to the supermraket do you find their sugar lying around. Meaning the last batch was bought out even though cheaper sugar was still available in the shops. For sure the shops did not return back to MSC the last batched supplied.

HaMaina
#85 Posted : Thursday, August 13, 2015 4:06:21 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/23/2014
Posts: 910
This import from Brazil or Uganda is not making sense. Would it not be practical to fully ban sea-port importation and concentrate on Uganda importation with the help of Uganda KRA officials, to regulate on their end?

Sweet Sour Deal: MPs from Western region turn down State House date

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rs590wM3lZ8
“You can get in way more trouble with a good idea than a bad idea, because you forget that the good idea has limits.” - Ben Graham
streetwise
#86 Posted : Friday, August 14, 2015 8:20:26 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/23/2011
Posts: 1,740
Location: Nairobi
Everyone says Ban Ban.

Let me ask why do Kenyan athletes dominate the races in the world.

Answer because the practise and become better than the competition.

Same with our competition or DIE.

If you dont it does not matter who is protecting you, you will surely die
HaMaina
#87 Posted : Friday, August 14, 2015 8:39:21 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/23/2014
Posts: 910
Why do I get this strange feeling like the banning of sea imports has directly impacted some peoples pockets. I would like to know who the major licensed importers from Brazil etc were.
“You can get in way more trouble with a good idea than a bad idea, because you forget that the good idea has limits.” - Ben Graham
Wakanyugi
#88 Posted : Friday, August 14, 2015 11:33:36 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/3/2007
Posts: 1,634
Thank you all for the detailed input. This has been an important learning for me. My takeaways from this:

1. It is not about the farmers, they are just a convenient handle on which to hang political and other grievances. After all Kenya has a Sugar shortfall and we have to buy it from somewhere, donge? Why not Uganda? Oh, because Ugandans have no sugar to sell, they will simply repack Brazilian sugar and sell it to us. So? Good for them. We just need sugar right? Or am I missing something here?

2. It is time our politicians stepped up to the plate. What Kenya needs now is leaders who get things done, not just hecklers who specialize in spewing hot air. Thinking is not optional.

"The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
HaMaina
#89 Posted : Friday, August 14, 2015 11:40:05 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/23/2014
Posts: 910
Wakanyugi wrote:
Thank you all for the detailed input. This has been an important learning for me. My takeaways from this:

1. It is not about the farmers, they are just a convenient handle on which to hang political and other grievances. After all Kenya has a Sugar shortfall and we have to buy it from somewhere, donge? Why not Uganda? Oh, because Ugandans have no sugar to sell, they will simply repack Brazilian sugar and sell it to us. So? Good for them. We just need sugar right? Or am I missing something here?

2. It is time our politicians stepped up to the plate. What Kenya needs now is leaders who get things done, not just hecklers who specialize in spewing hot air. Thinking is not optional.



I thought Uganda had a surplus supply?
“You can get in way more trouble with a good idea than a bad idea, because you forget that the good idea has limits.” - Ben Graham
mlennyma
#90 Posted : Friday, August 14, 2015 11:44:33 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
When coffee seemed unviable in many areas,the owners were quick to uproot and turn to real estate,the problem is not sugar but leadership retrogressiveness ,pple who never think beyond their nose.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
HaMaina
#91 Posted : Friday, August 14, 2015 11:44:52 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/23/2014
Posts: 910
HaMaina wrote:
Wakanyugi wrote:
Thank you all for the detailed input. This has been an important learning for me. My takeaways from this:

1. It is not about the farmers, they are just a convenient handle on which to hang political and other grievances. After all Kenya has a Sugar shortfall and we have to buy it from somewhere, donge? Why not Uganda? Oh, because Ugandans have no sugar to sell, they will simply repack Brazilian sugar and sell it to us. So? Good for them. We just need sugar right? Or am I missing something here?

2. It is time our politicians stepped up to the plate. What Kenya needs now is leaders who get things done, not just hecklers who specialize in spewing hot air. Thinking is not optional.



I thought Uganda had a surplus supply?


Short Reading

http://www.monitor.co.ug...l/-/h5roma/-/index.html
“You can get in way more trouble with a good idea than a bad idea, because you forget that the good idea has limits.” - Ben Graham
HaMaina
#92 Posted : Friday, August 14, 2015 11:50:54 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/23/2014
Posts: 910
I think someone shot himself in the foot.

http://nairobinews.co.ke...ppose-uganda-sugar-deal/
“You can get in way more trouble with a good idea than a bad idea, because you forget that the good idea has limits.” - Ben Graham
kollabo
#93 Posted : Friday, August 14, 2015 12:43:15 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/3/2012
Posts: 1,317
We have a KPL football club which we run as a "community club". Under the new Sports Act people with political interests are banned from leadership positions. We decided to circumvent this and create a council of elders to oversee the club and placed in 5 politicians.

During elections one guy came with loads of money. We elected him coz of his cash. In fact he pumped in 12M of his own cash but the club ended up broke and cant pay players salaries. We insulted the guy and kicked him out.

Now we dont even go to the stadiums to support the club. The politicians are nowhere to be seen. We are crying mismanagement. Poor us.
Njung'e
#94 Posted : Friday, August 14, 2015 1:34:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
@Hamaina,

I will reiterate that Uganda, alongside all other African countries with the exception of Mauritius and to a small extent,Malawi, is a net importer. The thing that stabilizes and therefore makes them look like they have surplus is, weather (Good weather) and a low per capita sugar intake of 9kgs. On a bad year, like in 2011/2012 ,they were so hard hit that the price of sugar in Kampala rose to equivalent of Kshs 320 per Kg. What resulted was massive uncontrolled importation and since their taxation regime is much lower than ours,some of that sugar found it's way back into Kenya (or never left Kenya). Wouldn't opening up help in anticipating shortage and therefore cushioning the region from within? Maybe i am missing something.
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
Wakanyugi
#95 Posted : Friday, August 14, 2015 4:01:52 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/3/2007
Posts: 1,634
Njung'e wrote:
@Hamaina,

I will reiterate that Uganda, alongside all other African countries with the exception of Mauritius and to a small extent,Malawi, is a net importer. The thing that stabilizes and therefore makes them look like they have surplus is, weather (Good weather) and a low per capita sugar intake of 9kgs. On a bad year, like in 2011/2012 ,they were so hard hit that the price of sugar in Kampala rose to equivalent of Kshs 320 per Kg. What resulted was massive uncontrolled importation and since their taxation regime is much lower than ours,some of that sugar found it's way back into Kenya (or never left Kenya). Wouldn't opening up help in anticipating shortage and therefore cushioning the region from within? Maybe i am missing something.


Actually this is where creating a single market for Sugar (and later for other things) would make plenty of sense. Prices would stabilize and the expanded opportunity would encourage our factories to become efficient. One off handouts may offer good photo opportunities but will not save the likes of Mumias.
"The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
enyands
#96 Posted : Friday, August 14, 2015 6:32:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
Wakanyugi wrote:
Njung'e wrote:
@Hamaina,

I will reiterate that Uganda, alongside all other African countries with the exception of Mauritius and to a small extent,Malawi, is a net importer. The thing that stabilizes and therefore makes them look like they have surplus is, weather (Good weather) and a low per capita sugar intake of 9kgs. On a bad year, like in 2011/2012 ,they were so hard hit that the price of sugar in Kampala rose to equivalent of Kshs 320 per Kg. What resulted was massive uncontrolled importation and since their taxation regime is much lower than ours,some of that sugar found it's way back into Kenya (or never left Kenya). Wouldn't opening up help in anticipating shortage and therefore cushioning the region from within? Maybe i am missing something.


Actually this is where creating a single market for Sugar (and later for other things) would make plenty of sense. Prices would stabilize and the expanded opportunity would encourage our factories to become efficient. One off handouts may offer good photo opportunities but will not save the likes of Mumias.


When you say kenya will be getting CHEAP SUGAR from Uganda ,then what will happen to the market demand reaction to expensive sugar produced by local sugar miller's since the cost of production is high resulting to expensive sugar??
Of course people will go for cheap sugar and that's when THE FINAL NAIL OF CRUCIFIXION OF LOCAL MILLER'S WILL HAPPEN . I feel bad for people in mumias bus
mlennyma
#97 Posted : Friday, August 14, 2015 6:42:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
enyands wrote:
Wakanyugi wrote:
Njung'e wrote:
@Hamaina,

I will reiterate that Uganda, alongside all other African countries with the exception of Mauritius and to a small extent,Malawi, is a net importer. The thing that stabilizes and therefore makes them look like they have surplus is, weather (Good weather) and a low per capita sugar intake of 9kgs. On a bad year, like in 2011/2012 ,they were so hard hit that the price of sugar in Kampala rose to equivalent of Kshs 320 per Kg. What resulted was massive uncontrolled importation and since their taxation regime is much lower than ours,some of that sugar found it's way back into Kenya (or never left Kenya). Wouldn't opening up help in anticipating shortage and therefore cushioning the region from within? Maybe i am missing something.


Actually this is where creating a single market for Sugar (and later for other things) would make plenty of sense. Prices would stabilize and the expanded opportunity would encourage our factories to become efficient. One off handouts may offer good photo opportunities but will not save the likes of Mumias.


When you say kenya will be getting CHEAP SUGAR from Uganda ,then what will happen to the market demand reaction to expensive sugar produced by local sugar miller's since the cost of production is high resulting to expensive sugar??
Of course people will go for cheap sugar and that's when THE FINAL NAIL OF CRUCIFIXION OF LOCAL MILLER'S WILL HAPPEN . I feel bad for people in mumias bus

the world is an open market where you either become competitive or die.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
VituVingiSana
#98 Posted : Friday, August 14, 2015 9:08:18 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Njung'e wrote:
@Hamaina,

I will reiterate that Uganda, alongside all other African countries with the exception of Mauritius and to a small extent,Malawi, is a net importer. The thing that stabilizes and therefore makes them look like they have surplus is, weather (Good weather) and a low per capita sugar intake of 9kgs. On a bad year, like in 2011/2012 ,they were so hard hit that the price of sugar in Kampala rose to equivalent of Kshs 320 per Kg. What resulted was massive uncontrolled importation and since their taxation regime is much lower than ours,some of that sugar found it's way back into Kenya (or never left Kenya). Wouldn't opening up help in anticipating shortage and therefore cushioning the region from within? Maybe i am missing something.

Well, what's wrong with that?
Weather - Countries with favorable weather for specific crops is what those countries produce those crops. Brazil and coffee. Kenya and tea. Canada and wheat.
Consumption per capita - That's not a bad thing. It's a personal choice. I try to limit my consumption of sugar for health reasons regardless of the price [I don't consume more when prices are lower] or production per capita.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Njung'e
#99 Posted : Saturday, August 15, 2015 9:48:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
[quote=Njung'e]@Hamaina,

Well, what's wrong with that?
Weather - Countries with favorable weather for specific crops is what those countries produce those crops. Brazil and coffee. Kenya and tea. Canada and wheat.
Consumption per capita - That's not a bad thing. It's a personal choice. I try to limit my consumption of sugar for health reasons regardless of the price [I don't consume more when prices are lower] or production per capita.


Maybe i was not clear enough. I meant to say that the UG sugar belt has erratic weather unlike the Kenyan one and therefore, their annual sugar production is very unpredictable.One year they have plenty,the next,they are importing. Sugar intake per capita is more a component of affordability by households than a preference. That's why average intake in US is higher than in Kenya and lowest in poorer countries such as Mozambique. I hope i am clearer now.
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
Angelica _ann
#100 Posted : Saturday, August 15, 2015 11:10:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,908
Thanks jaduong & all for the wonderful insights into this industry. Enyewe politics & greed is our impediment to development!!!
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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