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KenolKobil HY 2015 net profit up 73%
Aguytrying
#41 Posted : Wednesday, August 12, 2015 2:20:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
A sign of 8bob coming back is visible

That is good news but my broker says there is a lot of demand at 8.50 waiting in the wings. We don't see the real demand/supply for many counters.


I am more than sure in the next bull phase KK will more than double from the current price of 8.xy.

And is trading on a foward PE of 7 at the moment. This may not seem like much, until you compare with the previous 2 years. a testament to the growth in profit.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Metasploit
#42 Posted : Wednesday, August 12, 2015 2:20:29 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
VituVingiSana wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
A sign of 8bob coming back is visible

That is good news but my broker says there is a lot of demand at 8.50 waiting in the wings. We don't see the real demand/supply for many counters.

For those in this boat for the 'long' term... I am happier with lower prices. This is a play for for (post-election) 2018.


who is your broker chief ?

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
hisah
#43 Posted : Wednesday, August 12, 2015 3:03:26 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Mr Market's current mood doesn't support bulls. Good news will be sold, bad news will be sold until the cycle resets.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mlennyma
#44 Posted : Wednesday, August 12, 2015 3:08:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
Mr Market's current mood doesn't support bulls. Good news will be sold, bad news will be sold until the cycle resets.

true,it closed being hammered to 8.50
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
VituVingiSana
#45 Posted : Wednesday, August 12, 2015 3:14:56 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Metasploit wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
A sign of 8bob coming back is visible

That is good news but my broker says there is a lot of demand at 8.50 waiting in the wings. We don't see the real demand/supply for many counters.

For those in this boat for the 'long' term... I am happier with lower prices. This is a play for for (post-election) 2018.


who is your broker chief ?
The main 'supplier' of KK. Also the firm that is #1 for foreign trades. I think they do large crosses when they can i.e. they don't bid unless they can secure equivalent supply. Foreign buyers don't buy $2,000 blocks.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#46 Posted : Wednesday, August 12, 2015 7:56:05 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
https://www.youtube.com/...fE&feature=youtu.be

Ohana on CCTV

Reduction in KES debt by 1.4bn since Dec 2014
Current KES debt is 3bn but expected to be at 2bn by Dec 2015 & paid off by June 2016
Natural hedges (inflow in $ vs liabilities in $)
Focus on LPG, lubricants and milking assets [properties]
KK in a short position [they are buying fuel as prices drop]
Strong 2H expected
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Aguytrying
#47 Posted : Wednesday, August 12, 2015 9:26:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nP3KMAJkfE&feature=youtu.be

Ohana on CCTV

Reduction in KES debt by 1.4bn since Dec 2014
Current KES debt is 3bn but expected to be at 2bn by Dec 2015 & paid off by June 2016
Natural hedges (inflow in $ vs liabilities in $)
Focus on LPG, lubricants and milking assets [properties]
KK in a short position [they are buying fuel as prices drop]
Strong 2H expected


He's so in touch with the industry and the companies strategy.
Developing real estate at petrol stations will also increase retail fuel sales.

Are there any dollar denominated loans left?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Aguytrying
#48 Posted : Wednesday, August 12, 2015 9:28:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nP3KMAJkfE&feature=youtu.be

Ohana on CCTV

Reduction in KES debt by 1.4bn since Dec 2014
Current KES debt is 3bn but expected to be at 2bn by Dec 2015 & paid off by June 2016
Natural hedges (inflow in $ vs liabilities in $)
Focus on LPG, lubricants and milking assets [properties]
KK in a short position [they are buying fuel as prices drop]
Strong 2H expected


He's so in touch with the industry and the companies strategy.
Developing real estate at petrol stations will also increase retail fuel sales.

Are there any dollar denominated loans left?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#49 Posted : Wednesday, August 12, 2015 11:13:19 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nP3KMAJkfE&feature=youtu.be

Ohana on CCTV

Reduction in KES debt by 1.4bn since Dec 2014
Current KES debt is 3bn but expected to be at 2bn by Dec 2015 & paid off by June 2016
Natural hedges (inflow in $ vs liabilities in $)
Focus on LPG, lubricants and milking assets [properties]
KK in a short position [they are buying fuel as prices drop]
Strong 2H expected


He's so in touch with the industry and the companies strategy.
Developing real estate at petrol stations will also increase retail fuel sales.

Are there any dollar denominated loans left?

Yes.
He said (of the 8.6bn in loans as shown on the Balance Sheet ) 3bn is in KES so the balance is in Forex [I assume most of it in USD].

The loans are for Working Capital [see the 2014 Annual Report] but they are 'naturally hedged' since they finance fuel inventories that is sold in USD [to airlines, subsidiaries and other OMCs] for the most part. The sales done in LCY is where KK assumes risk of they cannot adjust prices e.g. in Kenya the ERC changes prices monthly.

Ohana said July was very good and KK is on course to meet its targets for 2H. KK is 'short' fuel thus it can buy fuel at cheaper prices as prices drop vs those firms that are long i.e. have pricier stocks.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mlennyma
#50 Posted : Wednesday, August 19, 2015 10:54:57 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
Good demand and weak supply .funny enough the weak supply is never wiped out.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
mlennyma
#51 Posted : Tuesday, August 25, 2015 12:04:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
Kk has never rallied for the last 2yrs,on the good side it's yet to crush below 7.90.the stocks that rallied are about to shed all gains. I expect strong demand below 8 if at all it breaks down,there was however an insignificant trade at 7.50 earlier
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
heri
#52 Posted : Tuesday, August 25, 2015 10:27:15 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 834
Location: nairobi
heri
#53 Posted : Tuesday, August 25, 2015 10:28:45 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 834
Location: nairobi
IN SUMMARY
Justice Francis Gikonyo has dismissed KPC’s application seeking to disqualify Mr Abdullahi as an arbiter in the dispute.
KPC had argued that Mr Abdullahi’s interview during a live newscast at a local TV station in June last year revealed that he is not capable of conducting the proceedings impartially.
KenolKobil sued KPC in 2006 claiming the State firm had breached a storage agreement the two had signed by allocating space to other oil marketers, including Triton Oil Company which became the centre of a Sh7.6 billion oil theft scandal only three years later.
VituVingiSana
#54 Posted : Wednesday, August 26, 2015 1:51:25 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Good news for KK. It's a grind but if it can be settled by the time KK is ready for a sale... This is a bonus.
4.6bn plus interest = 4/- per share assuming AA award the same amount to KK vs KPC.
And part of this 4.6bn was in USD. So add 30% to that portion of the award.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Kahuna
#55 Posted : Wednesday, August 26, 2015 8:15:48 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/6/2015
Posts: 26
@VVS and other market gurus, how does a novice like myself strike a balance between the good news on this counter and the current Sentiments towards equities ? Is there a possibility that the market will overact in the short term leading to a short lived spike then return to normal inline with the bear market ? Which would mean that we should wait before boarding.
jerry
#56 Posted : Wednesday, August 26, 2015 8:26:05 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
Kahuna wrote:
@VVS and other market gurus, how does a novice like myself strike a balance between the good news on this counter and the current Sentiments towards equities ? Is there a possibility that the market will overact in the short term leading to a short lived spike then return to normal inline with the bear market ? Which would mean that we should wait before boarding.

Use your gut feeling. Sometimes it works.
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
Pesa Nane
#57 Posted : Wednesday, August 26, 2015 9:20:52 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
heri
#58 Posted : Wednesday, August 26, 2015 9:45:43 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 834
Location: nairobi
Pesa Nane wrote:


@Pesa Nane. Thanks. i did not know they are also in Ethiopia
mlennyma
#59 Posted : Wednesday, August 26, 2015 10:02:54 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
The cow continues to fatten,kpc must have abused the birth attendants while pregnant .but is the judiciary in this country business friendly if an investor can wait for 9 yrs and still counting? ??the best way now would be kpc to call Kk and talk outside court.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
mlennyma
#60 Posted : Wednesday, August 26, 2015 10:04:58 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Good news for KK. It's a grind but if it can be settled by the time KK is ready for a sale... This is a bonus.
4.6bn plus interest = 4/- per share assuming AA award the same amount to KK vs KPC.
And part of this 4.6bn was in USD. So add 30% to that portion of the award.

patience pays,I have offered myself as a sacrifice to stay and die here
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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