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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
hisah
#641 Posted : Thursday, August 06, 2015 8:06:27 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
snipermnoma wrote:
This week the Central Bank of Kenya offered 91-day Treasury Bills for a total of Kshs.3 Billion. The total number of bids received was 154 amounting to Kshs.2.14 Billion, representing a subscription of 71.42%. Total bids accepted amounted to Kshs.688.93 Million.The market weighted average rate was 14.243 %, and the weighted average of accepted bids which will be applied for non-competitive bids was 11.570% up from 11.539% in the previous auction.

91 day bill rate increased!

91 day yield almost at par with 182 day yields. When 91 day yields command a higher rate than 364 day notes that's when the yield curve inversion will start causing problems!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#642 Posted : Friday, August 07, 2015 2:44:27 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
FTSE KE NSE15 index posting a big intraday rally. Current gains stand at 4.64% as it tries to reclaim the 200 level handle. Half an hour before market close. On the daily chart this is going to be a bullish reversal as well as confirmed by the index vaulting above fibo resistance @196.65 with the pivot at 191.18.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mwekez@ji
#643 Posted : Friday, August 07, 2015 5:09:15 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Rich Today wrote:

Bulls will cheer todays Price Move which was dynamic and aggressive to the Upside.

The Nairobi All Share surged +2.74% for its biggest session Gain of the Year. The All Share closed at 150.45. The Nairobi NSE20 ramped +64.39 points higher to close at 4415.09. Equity Turnover slipped to 469.833m versus 1.239b.

Next week is key if we gather momentum we might well have witnessed the bottom for 2015.

Interestingly we have seen very heavy duty volumes of late [not least the market has now absorbed the Helios LLP Equity shareholding] and there is a sense that the Sellers are now done at these levels.

The Shilling was trading in a solid manner at 101.10 [which is a Signifier of its own given the decision not to raise interest rates earlier in the week].

If the Shilling continues to hold below the 103.95 2015 Intra day Low from last month, we might see a move back below 100.00

However, external forces are buffeting EM and Frontier Currencies not least Janet Yellen's FED who are expected to raise US interest rates in September, which will potentially roil these currencies again.

snipermnoma
#644 Posted : Friday, August 07, 2015 10:26:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
The selling was heavy and this had to be corrected. It does look like we have seen the bottom at least of this spell. I think the rally will be thwarted at 4700 and we will see another downswing...if that happens the low target will be 4100. If it doesn't happen and the rally continues then I will rue the missed opportunity and those who got in will be doing a happy dance.
mnandii
#645 Posted : Sunday, August 09, 2015 1:03:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Yes.



Evidence above suggests that blue wave '[b]' is complete at 4317.23. We can do away with the 3800 target for now.

So, I am short-term bullish on the NSE 20 Share Index with a target of slightly above 4906 (red wave (b)).

All the best.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#646 Posted : Sunday, August 09, 2015 1:05:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mwekez@ji wrote:
Rich Today wrote:

Bulls will cheer todays Price Move which was dynamic and aggressive to the Upside.

The Nairobi All Share surged +2.74% for its biggest session Gain of the Year. The All Share closed at 150.45. The Nairobi NSE20 ramped +64.39 points higher to close at 4415.09. Equity Turnover slipped to 469.833m versus 1.239b.

Next week is key if we gather momentum we might well have witnessed the bottom for 2015.

Interestingly we have seen very heavy duty volumes of late [not least the market has now absorbed the Helios LLP Equity shareholding] and there is a sense that the Sellers are now done at these levels.

The Shilling was trading in a solid manner at 101.10 [which is a Signifier of its own given the decision not to raise interest rates earlier in the week].

If the Shilling continues to hold below the 103.95 2015 Intra day Low from last month, we might see a move back below 100.00

However, external forces are buffeting EM and Frontier Currencies not least Janet Yellen's FED who are expected to raise US interest rates in September, which will potentially roil these currencies again.


Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#647 Posted : Sunday, August 09, 2015 1:07:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
hisah wrote:
FTSE KE NSE15 index posting a big intraday rally. Current gains stand at 4.64% as it tries to reclaim the 200 level handle. Half an hour before market close. On the daily chart this is going to be a bullish reversal as well as confirmed by the index vaulting above fibo resistance @196.65 with the pivot at 191.18.


Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
hisah
#648 Posted : Monday, August 10, 2015 3:02:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
I'll start keep track of mpesa bank going forward. This is the main peg that will determine how low the market tanks next!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Aguytrying
#649 Posted : Monday, August 10, 2015 3:43:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
I'll start keep track of mpesa bank going forward. This is the main peg that will determine how low the market tanks next!


I'm with you on that one. When it bleeds the market bleeds heavier
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
murchr
#650 Posted : Monday, August 10, 2015 4:29:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
I'll start keep track of mpesa bank going forward. This is the main peg that will determine how low the market tanks next!


I'm with you on that one. When it bleeds the market bleeds heavier


Exactly, someone said here a while ago that the NSE is really exposed and the determinant of how the market goes is MPESA bank...we need more like it to balance the activity.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Fyatu
#651 Posted : Tuesday, August 11, 2015 12:42:37 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
Seems like this bear was a hoax Sad
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
sparkly
#652 Posted : Tuesday, August 11, 2015 12:45:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Fyatu wrote:
Seems like this bear was a hoax Sad


Rebounds are normal in the market. I expect to see bigger discounts before we can say the bear is back in the woods smile Its all psychological
Life is short. Live passionately.
hisah
#653 Posted : Tuesday, August 11, 2015 3:11:03 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
The rebound is running out of steam too early ahead of the 38.2% fibo retracement at 206.10 on FTSE KE NSE15. At least the rebound needs to test the 50% fibo retracement level at 211.75 to stem off the selling pressure. Otherwise the next drop will slice through the low at 187.79 with ease! If that happens,4300 support will breakdown easily on NSE20.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#654 Posted : Tuesday, August 11, 2015 3:32:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Fyatu wrote:
Seems like this bear was a hoax Sad

You should be selling in this short retracement.The trend remains south until CBK starts lowering cbr towards inflation rate levels.
@SufficientlyP
Aguytrying
#655 Posted : Tuesday, August 11, 2015 3:44:09 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
The rebound is running out of steam too early ahead of the 38.2% fibo retracement at 206.10 on FTSE KE NSE15. At least the rebound needs to test the 50% fibo retracement level at 211.75 to stem off the selling pressure. Otherwise the next drop will slice through the low at 187.79 with ease! If that happens,4300 support will breakdown easily on NSE20.


Ha ha. It takes just 3 days of gains on the NSE 20 for people to start celebrating that the bear is dead. I wish i will have accumulated enough arsenal by the time the bear is in town proper
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
hisah
#656 Posted : Wednesday, August 12, 2015 2:56:20 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
The rebound is running out of steam too early ahead of the 38.2% fibo retracement at 206.10 on FTSE KE NSE15. At least the rebound needs to test the 50% fibo retracement level at 211.75 to stem off the selling pressure. Otherwise the next drop will slice through the low at 187.79 with ease! If that happens,4300 support will breakdown easily on NSE20.


Ha ha. It takes just 3 days of gains on the NSE 20 for people to start celebrating that the bear is dead. I wish i will have accumulated enough arsenal by the time the bear is in town proper

A lot of weakness in the current rebound. This is not good Pray
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#657 Posted : Friday, August 14, 2015 3:54:04 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Dubai Bank Kenya Ltd under receivership
Quote:
The Central Bank of Kenya(CBK)has today, Friday 14th August 2015,appointed the Kenya Deposit Insurance Corporation (KDIC) as a receiver for Dubai Bank Kenya Limited for a period of twelve months, pursuant to the provisions of Sections 43(1), 43(2) and 53(1) of the Kenya Deposit Insurance Act, 2012.

The appointment of KDIC as a receiver for Dubai Bank Kenya Limited has been carried out in the interest of its depositors, creditors and members of the public.

Dubai Bank has been experiencing serious liquidity and capital deficiencies which have raised the CBK’s concerns that it will most likely not be able to meet its financial obligations as and when they fall due.

One of the CBK’s primary role as a regulator is to foster the liquidity, solvency and proper functioning of a stable market-based financial system. CBK has closely monitored Dubai Bank’s daily cash reserve ratio from 14th July 2015 when the bank began breaching its daily cash reserve ratio requirements.

Owing to the consistently deteriorating cash reserve ratio position of Dubai Bank and its failure to honour financial obligations, including Ksh.48.18 million due to Bank of Africa Kenya Limited, the CBK is of the considered opinion that the bank will most likely fail to meet its financial obligations in the normal course of business.


What about NBK?

As for the market bulls remaining... Pray
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
instinct
#658 Posted : Friday, August 14, 2015 4:08:43 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
what do you mean NBK? is there anything i missed?
Fyatu
#659 Posted : Friday, August 14, 2015 5:40:03 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
slowly reversing......the bear is still around
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
TheGeek
#660 Posted : Monday, August 17, 2015 12:02:35 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/3/2014
Posts: 245
hisah wrote:
I'll start keep track of mpesa bank going forward. This is the main peg that will determine how low the market tanks next!


The CFO certainly thinks its exit time SAFARICOM CFO SELLS OFF STAKE IN COMPANY
In the world of securities, courage and patience become the supreme virtues after adequate knowledge and a tested judgment are at hand.
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