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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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mnandii wrote:Continuing from post 615 above.  This chart is similar to the long term one in post 615 but it is from www.investing.com. My aim here is to show the sub-divisions within blue wave [a]. The fall from 5499.64 is therefore blue wave ...[..b] and is analysed below.  This is the best interpretation I have for the fall from 5499.64 high and part of the reason I am skeptical that the fall is a full-blown bear. The pattern is distinctly a zigzag pattern (5-3-5). Now, while it is possible that the move (5499.64 to 4404.72), our zigzag, may be the first leg of a leading diagonal (3-3-3-3-3), the sharpness of the fall signifies otherwise. I am therefore convinced the fall is a zigzag wave ..[..b] and should eventually be fully retraced. Please note that zigzags can be single, double or triple. The beauty with Elliott is that it is evidence-based. Thus, if price patterns would suggest a different scenario other than the rise to the 7000 mark be assured that I will be the first to jump onto that count.  For now though I will be looking for a small 5 wave move to slightly above 4906.07 to satisfy that this bullish scenario is indeed the case. A little math:Red wave (a) = {5499.64 - 4404.72} = 1094.92 We expect a Fibonacci relation between waves (a) and (c) of the zigzag. 1). If wave (c) is 0.618 X Wave (a) then our target for wave (c) becomes: 0.618 X 1094.92 = 676.66 Subtracting 676.66 from wave (b) high gives: 4906.07 - 676.66 = 4229.41 NB: This has been surpassed. 2). If wave (c) equals wave (a) then: 4906.07 - 1094.92 = 3811.15 NB: Quite likely. 3)If wave (c) is the next Fibonacci target of 1.618 X Wave (a) then: 1.618 X 1094.92 = 1771.58 The target in this case becomes: 4906.07 - 1771.58 = 3134.49 NB: Quite unlikely. Summary: I expect NSE 20 share Index to fall to about 3811 points then start a strong move up toward 4907s level. Nice trading. @mnandii The analysis is thorough and I was able to follow though to understand I probably need to go through the book (463 pages) plus practice what I learn, it might be a while. I have two questions. 1. The calculation of wave a, the figure I highlighted in blue (4404.72) should it not be 4744.66? In which case: i) wave a = 754.98 ii) 0.618x level becomes 4439.49 iii) Equal level becomes 4151.09 iii) 1.618 level becomes 3684.51 2. Where do fundamentals feature in all this? Seems to me like those go right out the window!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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NSE20 closed @4,354. Stone cold selling. Yr was open - 5117. This means as per today's close NSE20 is down 14.9%. The next round of madness will be interesting to watch since the market has lost legs rapidly. @mnandii - indeed when the next bullish phase ensues 6161 all time high will be blown into pieces  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:NSE20 closed @4,354. Stone cold selling. Yr was open - 5117. This means as per today's close NSE20 is down 14.9%. The next round of madness will be interesting to watch since the market has lost legs rapidly. @mnandii - indeed when the next bullish phase ensues 6161 all time high will be blown into pieces The train has derailed very fast. Hiding in mmf as bear does its thing. I had buying targets set when we were at 5000 points. Most of the are almost being reached!! The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:NSE20 closed @4,354. Stone cold selling. Yr was open - 5117. This means as per today's close NSE20 is down 14.9%. The next round of madness will be interesting to watch since the market has lost legs rapidly. @mnandii - indeed when the next bullish phase ensues 6161 all time high will be blown into pieces The train has derailed very fast. Hiding in mmf as bear does its thing. I had buying targets set when we were at 5000 points. Most of the are almost being reached!! As per yesterday's close, NSE20 has erased the entire 2013 and 2014 climb! NASI index hasn't!
More pain is coming. Why? The NASI index last month broke below the 3yr bullish trendline pinned in 2012. This means the small caps time to be taken to the cleaners has arrived! Vapour volume rally small caps counters watch them. The slide will be spectacular!
KE econ macros are so messed up at the moment. Short end notes (tbills) are threatening to command higher yields than long end notes. This is where the infamous inverted yield curve shows up. Overnight IB rate is in the red zone at 20%?! Liquidity has vapourized! Then add the hawkish CBK harsh mood that mopping up liquidity like a dry sponge. Without liquidity equities can never have legs! Equities slide sharply during recessions. NSE20 current sharp slide is just confirm the overall econ turmoil.
Sadly the MPC may still hike CBR this week. That will finish off the equities hopefuls I've been talking about and NASI will catch up with the NSE20 slide. Until that happens I don't think the market will find a strong floor to turn the current trend.
@mnandii @SPT, remember that trouble with euro chart in fx? NSE20 is falling like the euro. And now NASI has broken below the 3yr trendline. Such breaks usually unleash vicious bears.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:NSE20 closed @4,354. Stone cold selling. Yr was open - 5117. This means as per today's close NSE20 is down 14.9%. The next round of madness will be interesting to watch since the market has lost legs rapidly. @mnandii - indeed when the next bullish phase ensues 6161 all time high will be blown into pieces The train has derailed very fast. Hiding in mmf as bear does its thing. I had buying targets set when we were at 5000 points. Most of the are almost being reached!! As per yesterday's close, NSE20 has erased the entire 2013 and 2014 climb! NASI index hasn't!
More pain is coming. Why? The NASI index last month broke below the 3yr bullish trendline pinned in 2012. This means the small caps time to be taken to the cleaners has arrived! Vapour volume rally small caps counters watch them. The slide will be spectacular!
KE econ macros are so messed up at the moment. Short end notes (tbills) are threatening to command higher yields than long end notes. This is where the infamous inverted yield curve shows up. Overnight IB rate is in the red zone at 20%?! Liquidity has vapourized! Then add the hawkish CBK harsh mood that mopping up liquidity like a dry sponge. Without liquidity equities can never have legs! Equities slide sharply during recessions. NSE20 current sharp slide is just confirm the overall econ turmoil.
Sadly the MPC may still hike CBR this week. That will finish off the equities hopefuls I've been talking about and NASI will catch up with the NSE20 slide. Until that happens I don't think the market will find a strong floor to turn the current trend.
@mnandii @SPT, remember that trouble with euro chart in fx? NSE20 is falling like the euro. And now NASI has broken below the 3yr trendline. Such breaks usually unleash vicious bears. That was a Great call Money was made.This is when you wish NSE had ETFs. NASI would be a great short. I see your commodos call too coming to pass. The rout is real. Brent below $50 for the first time since Jan. The Dangotes of this world heavily invested in commodos sitting tight as we speak! @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:NSE20 closed @4,354. Stone cold selling. Yr was open - 5117. This means as per today's close NSE20 is down 14.9%. The next round of madness will be interesting to watch since the market has lost legs rapidly. @mnandii - indeed when the next bullish phase ensues 6161 all time high will be blown into pieces The train has derailed very fast. Hiding in mmf as bear does its thing. I had buying targets set when we were at 5000 points. Most of the are almost being reached!! As per yesterday's close, NSE20 has erased the entire 2013 and 2014 climb! NASI index hasn't!
More pain is coming. Why? The NASI index last month broke below the 3yr bullish trendline pinned in 2012. This means the small caps time to be taken to the cleaners has arrived! Vapour volume rally small caps counters watch them. The slide will be spectacular!
KE econ macros are so messed up at the moment. Short end notes (tbills) are threatening to command higher yields than long end notes. This is where the infamous inverted yield curve shows up. Overnight IB rate is in the red zone at 20%?! Liquidity has vapourized! Then add the hawkish CBK harsh mood that mopping up liquidity like a dry sponge. Without liquidity equities can never have legs! Equities slide sharply during recessions. NSE20 current sharp slide is just confirm the overall econ turmoil.
Sadly the MPC may still hike CBR this week. That will finish off the equities hopefuls I've been talking about and NASI will catch up with the NSE20 slide. Until that happens I don't think the market will find a strong floor to turn the current trend.
@mnandii @SPT, remember that trouble with euro chart in fx? NSE20 is falling like the euro. And now NASI has broken below the 3yr trendline. Such breaks usually unleash vicious bears. That was a Great call Money was made.This is when you wish NSE had ETFs. NASI would be a great short. I see your commodos call too coming to pass. The rout is real. Brent below $50 for the first time since Jan. The Dangotes of this world heavily invested in commodos sitting tight as we speak! Commodos are still a short play. Oil will likely fall to $25 - 30 level and KQ is stil stuck in lousy fuel hedges.
Having slipped further than the expected 4400 zone, I expect the rebound that comes next to be snappish to reset the excessive oversold TA readings across many counters and the indices as well. Let's see if MPC will be the excuse for that snapback. However the structure has now shifted to heavy resistance forest layer from 4700 - 5000 level. That forest layer will thwart any rebound.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@mnandii, sparkly, SPT and incognito mkonomtupu Check out this NSE20 6yr chart. I reused @mnandii chart.  If we break below that 6yr trendline which has been in play since March 2009 (GFC madness) the bear winter will not be funny for many retail investors! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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hisah wrote:@mnandii, sparkly, SPT and incognito mkonomtupu Check out this NSE20 6yr chart. I reused @mnandii chart. If we break below that 6yr trendline which has been in play since March 2009 (GFC madness) the bear winter will not be funny for many retail investors! Should MPC raise the cbr further,the Bears would only get more confident, ravage the bulls more, and that trendline will for sure get shattered  @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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You see I'm back on Wazua...bears make money
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/14/2011 Posts: 834 Location: nairobi
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the deal wrote:You see I'm back on Wazua...bears make money @deal. Karibu sana. You helped me alot make money ( paper gains) on CFC though i have lost the gains by not selling at the right time Give us insights which shares to buy in this bear market
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/14/2011 Posts: 834 Location: nairobi
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the deal wrote:You see I'm back on Wazua...bears make money @deal. Karibu sana. You helped me alot make money ( paper gains) on CFC though i have lost the gains by not selling at the right time Give us insights which shares to buy in this bear market
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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heri wrote:the deal wrote:You see I'm back on Wazua...bears make money @deal. Karibu sana. You helped me alot make money ( paper gains) on CFC though i have lost the gains by not selling at the right time Give us insights which shares to buy in this bear market @the deal. Karibu. When i started investing in shares i wanted to be a bull, later i came to realise that im a bear. @heri. that was a sweet ride i was also on that train from 60's, also courtesy of yours truly The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:heri wrote:the deal wrote:You see I'm back on Wazua...bears make money @deal. Karibu sana. You helped me alot make money ( paper gains) on CFC though i have lost the gains by not selling at the right time Give us insights which shares to buy in this bear market @the deal. Karibu. When i started investing in shares i wanted to be a bull, later i came to realise that im a bear.@heri. that was a swet ride i was also on that train from 60's, also courtesy of yours truly Welcome back @deal in this land where KQ is generating a lot of heat... Next @stocksmaster to return
@Aguy, nice to see that you have indeed learnt how to where the money goggles Bulls are for selling while bears are for buying. That's the golden rule. Stick to this rule and you'll make loads of cash.
Today MPC gives us an insight on what they're thinking. Sit tight.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:heri wrote:the deal wrote:You see I'm back on Wazua...bears make money @deal. Karibu sana. You helped me alot make money ( paper gains) on CFC though i have lost the gains by not selling at the right time Give us insights which shares to buy in this bear market @the deal. Karibu. When i started investing in shares i wanted to be a bull, later i came to realise that im a bear.@heri. that was a swet ride i was also on that train from 60's, also courtesy of yours truly Welcome back @deal in this land where KQ is generating a lot of heat... Next @stocksmaster to return
@Aguy, nice to see that you have indeed learnt how to where the money goggles Bulls are for selling while bears are for buying. That's the golden rule. Stick to this rule and you'll make loads of cash.
Today MPC gives us an insight on what they're thinking. Sit tight.
True. I know most people are sad when they see the market tank, to me the exact opposite emotion. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,908
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Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:heri wrote:the deal wrote:You see I'm back on Wazua...bears make money @deal. Karibu sana. You helped me alot make money ( paper gains) on CFC though i have lost the gains by not selling at the right time Give us insights which shares to buy in this bear market @the deal. Karibu. When i started investing in shares i wanted to be a bull, later i came to realise that im a bear.@heri. that was a swet ride i was also on that train from 60's, also courtesy of yours truly Welcome back @deal in this land where KQ is generating a lot of heat... Next @stocksmaster to return
@Aguy, nice to see that you have indeed learnt how to where the money goggles Bulls are for selling while bears are for buying. That's the golden rule. Stick to this rule and you'll make loads of cash.
Today MPC gives us an insight on what they're thinking. Sit tight.
True. I know most people are sad when they see the market tank, to me the exact opposite emotion. In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:heri wrote:the deal wrote:You see I'm back on Wazua...bears make money @deal. Karibu sana. You helped me alot make money ( paper gains) on CFC though i have lost the gains by not selling at the right time Give us insights which shares to buy in this bear market @the deal. Karibu. When i started investing in shares i wanted to be a bull, later i came to realise that im a bear.@heri. that was a swet ride i was also on that train from 60's, also courtesy of yours truly Welcome back @deal in this land where KQ is generating a lot of heat... Next @stocksmaster to return
@Aguy, nice to see that you have indeed learnt how to where the money goggles Bulls are for selling while bears are for buying. That's the golden rule. Stick to this rule and you'll make loads of cash.
Today MPC gives us an insight on what they're thinking. Sit tight.
Thanks comrades...things are thick...banks lending at each other at +20%...dejavu 2011...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@deal, yes this is 2011 environment. Things are getting distorted by the day and the yield curve has not yet inverted!? When it does the market will  @maka, here is the IB trend for 2011. 30% was breached back in 2011. CBK got sneaky back then and stopped plotting the yield curve. This remains so to date Meanwhile NSE20 readies to break below 4300 as it closes @4317.  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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MPC maintains retain the CBR at 11.50% let's see what happens to 91 day bill tomorrow. Though it will probably go down just like 182 and 364 rates did today. https://www.centralbank....0dated%2010.08.2015.pdf
Meanwhile shilling is slowly appreciating against dollar (small daily gains each day of this week). So factoring all this, it points to a slowing down in the slide of NSE20 and could even be a signal to a bottom. @mnandii may just be right that a recovery is on the way! PS: @mnandii could you respond to the math on post 621? http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...&m=677095#post677095
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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[quote=snipermnoma]MPC maintains retain the CBR at 11.50% let's see what happens to 91 day bill tomorrow. Though it will probably go down just like 182 and 364 rates did today. https://www.centralbank....0dated%2010.08.2015.pdf
Meanwhile shilling is slowly appreciating against dollar (small daily gains each day of this week). So factoring all this, it points to a slowing down in the slide of NSE20 and could even be a signal to a bottom. @mnandii may just be right that a recovery is on the way! PS: @mnandii could you respond to the math on post 621? http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=677095#post677095[/quote] This week the Central Bank of Kenya offered 182 and 364 Days Treasury Bills for a total of Kshs.8 Billion. The total number of bids received was 58 amounting to Kshs.721.12 Million representing 18.03% subscription and 80 bids amounting to Kshs.6.96 Billion representing 173.88% subscription for 182 and 364 days, respectively. Bids accepted amounted to Kshs.212.61 Million for 182 days and Kshs.5.13 Billion for 364 days Treasury Bills. The weighted average rate of accepted bids, which will be applied for non-competitive bids, was 11.828% for the 182-day and 13.133% for 364-day Treasury Bills. The 182 day T bill was highly undesubscribed... possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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This week the Central Bank of Kenya offered 91-day Treasury Bills for a total of Kshs.3 Billion. The total number of bids received was 154 amounting to Kshs.2.14 Billion, representing a subscription of 71.42%. Total bids accepted amounted to Kshs.688.93 Million.The market weighted average rate was 14.243 %, and the weighted average of accepted bids which will be applied for non-competitive bids was 11.570% up from 11.539% in the previous auction.
91 day bill rate increased!
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