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The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:KK made 2 decisions after the 2012 debacle.
1) Reduce debt both KES and USD. In light of the recent interest rate increase, this will save them a lot of money.
2) Reduce or eliminate naked exposure to USD liabilities. This will be huge for KK going into 2015. There will be some exposure since fuel imports are priced in USD but sold in KES but that's for products they are going to sell.
Let the good times roll... whether fuel is purchased in USD and sold in ksh the pricing formula is constant, it's the donkey (consumer )to carry the burden marketers can only suffer reduced sales Nothing better than learning from your mistakes and benefiting from them big time. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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It's very likely we might see 7.50 "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 8/16/2011 Posts: 2,297
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With the high inflation and falling shilling the govt would want a higher price as it increses the percentage the govt pockets.
KK need to concentrate on building storage capacities for both refined and crude to help govt and private sector cope with storage. This is the next frontier where Warehousing will be the next money making after EastAfrica oils start flowing.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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Don't you think we are holding well so far? ?the results can tear down the support or boost it.which way kenol past H1 results? ??? "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mlennyma wrote:It's very likely we might see 7.50 Line in the sand. Break below will indicate that sub 7 is likely. KK needs to break above 9 with vigour to confirm that bulls are taking over.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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hisah wrote:mlennyma wrote:It's very likely we might see 7.50 Line in the sand. Break below will indicate that sub 7 is likely. KK needs to break above 9 with vigour to confirm that bulls are taking over. One bull must be scared when the whole market is full of bears,meaning however sound kk can be,the market mood has an upper hand. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mlennyma wrote:hisah wrote:mlennyma wrote:It's very likely we might see 7.50 Line in the sand. Break below will indicate that sub 7 is likely. KK needs to break above 9 with vigour to confirm that bulls are taking over. One bull must be scared when the whole market is full of bears,meaning however sound kk can be,the market mood has an upper hand. That support at 8-7.50 is so palpable if that breaks down it will get nasty. Coz it can go anywhere. But the company is performing well so as share price goes down value is increasing The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/15/2013 Posts: 1,977 Location: Here
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Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:hisah wrote:mlennyma wrote:It's very likely we might see 7.50 Line in the sand. Break below will indicate that sub 7 is likely. KK needs to break above 9 with vigour to confirm that bulls are taking over. One bull must be scared when the whole market is full of bears,meaning however sound kk can be,the market mood has an upper hand. That support at 8-7.50 is so palpable if that breaks down it will get nasty. Coz it can go anywhere. But the company is performing well so as share price goes down value is increasing Am watching the 2 yrs timeline still valid. Kenyans Killer  Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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I just can't understand why KK would be trading at a price of 8.30/- in August 2015 compared to the notorious 2011. In 2011 it was always between 9.50/- and 10.50/-. Anything negative thing that has happened to KK am not aware of? Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.β β Rashi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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My system showed 0 supply at one point today, last seen during puma times,the demand side suggests leaked H1 results.May be "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mlennyma wrote:My system showed 0 supply at one point today, last seen during puma times,the demand side suggests leaked H1 results.May be My thoughts excatly. The excitement must be due to results. I remember last time KK rallied during 2011 bear. but no puma in sight for that The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 5/21/2013 Posts: 72 Location: KENYA
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If you look at recent annual reports, they show a significant change in top shareholdings of KK. Maybe someone who has more in-depth knowledge of the shareholding structure now can disprove me, but I think there has been/is significant case shares changing hands here. Someone with big pockets; strategic investor perhaps? Iko kitu. βThe market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.β - John Maynard Keynes
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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shiznit wrote:If you look at recent annual reports, they show a significant change in top shareholdings of KK. Maybe someone who has more in-depth knowledge of the shareholding structure now can disprove me, but I think there has been/is significant case shares changing hands here. Someone with big pockets; strategic investor perhaps? Iko kitu. A major shareholder is selling. Since 2011 I think 2 related shareholders have exited completely. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 8/16/2011 Posts: 2,297
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If KK becomes profitable and price remains at 12-15 with dividend of 1 Kes annually I would still buy.
Soon situation will change and price may move up to average 14.50 with Dividends moving up from 45 cents ton 1Kes.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Realtreaty wrote:If KK becomes profitable and price remains at 12-15 with dividend of 1 Kes annually I would still buy.
Soon situation will change and price may move up to average 14.50 with Dividends moving up from 45 cents ton 1Kes. You really have to stop smoking that stuff. What was Kk dividend for 2014? it wasn't 45 cents. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/14/2011 Posts: 834 Location: nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:My system showed 0 supply at one point today, last seen during puma times,the demand side suggests leaked H1 results.May be @mlennyma did the arbitration that has been going on between KK and KPRL ever come to an end?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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heri wrote:mlennyma wrote:My system showed 0 supply at one point today, last seen during puma times,the demand side suggests leaked H1 results.May be @mlennyma did the arbitration that has been going on between KK and KPRL ever come to an end? the last time I heard of it is when kpc wanted abdullahi kicked out as arbitrator,I can't rule out, out of court agreement,if not so the normal kenyan judicial delays "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 3/3/2010 Posts: 79
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Realtreaty wrote:If KK becomes profitable and price remains at 12-15 with dividend of 1 Kes annually I would still buy.
Soon situation will change and price may move up to average 14.50 with Dividends moving up from 45 cents ton 1Kes. I don't think the results will be impressive...look at all the major oil corporations around the world...they're all reporting less profits if not losses...KK will not be any different. Knowledge is contagious...Infect truth!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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heri wrote:mlennyma wrote:My system showed 0 supply at one point today, last seen during puma times,the demand side suggests leaked H1 results.May be @mlennyma did the arbitration that has been going on between KK and KPRL ever come to an end? KK and KPRL was settled. There was an article or press release about it. There is an industry-wide settlement (Yield Shift) that hasn't been settled. That affects everyone. KK and KPC are still at it. Abdullahi ruled in favor of KK. KPC appealed. Some stupid judge (musinga) claimed the 6bn award was too much for the economy. [KK lost 6bn in 2012 and survived. KQ lost 45bn in 3 years. Kenya's economy hasn't collapsed] Then KPC wanted the award reduced. KK protested. And it goes on I guess. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,103 Location: Nairobi
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Afroblk wrote:Realtreaty wrote:If KK becomes profitable and price remains at 12-15 with dividend of 1 Kes annually I would still buy.
Soon situation will change and price may move up to average 14.50 with Dividends moving up from 45 cents ton 1Kes. I don't think the results will be impressive...look at all the major oil corporations around the world...they're all reporting less profits if not losses...KK will not be any different. KK is not an oil corporation. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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