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Kenya Economy Watch
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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 USDKES arrives at the breakout stage on the monthly chart. From here only the market can tell where that upthrust will stall. Fasten your seat belt as well as tighten your budgets for that liquidity squeeze will be tight... 2011 may just be a flash in the pan if USDKES breaks above 120! @kizee has the yield curve inverted? $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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@ hisah
not yet, short term rates have fallen somewat but lets see what MPC cats decide
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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KES/UGX - Muscular, very bullish KES KES/TZS - Bullish KES USD/KES - bearish KES USD/UGX - strong bear UGX USD/TZS - strong bear TZS KE trades a lot with UG. Meaning UG needs a lot more UGX to exchange for KES. Impact KE goods are now more expensive thus they'll cut back on KE imports as well as USD imports. Same case for TZ. KE econ in a slump, facing expensive USD, with expensive KES reducing UG/TZ export trade. Is anyone seeing what's coming?? CBK can't solve this equation with rate hikes. Treasury ministry gone bonkers! Unless bernanke literally pours USD from his helicopter in KE to save that widening current account deficit. This will be tough to watch  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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 The Star wrote:
Kenya is a model investment destination and a model for the rest of Africa, Sir Richard Branson, founder and CEO of the Virgin Group has said.
Branson was speaking when he led a group of investors in talks with President Uhuru Kenyatta at his Harambee House office.
Together, they explored how to make the most of Kenya’s abundant potential for green energy.
Branson said the proposed renewables project would benefit the 50% Kenyans who are yet to access electricity.
“Investors in this initiative have chosen Kenya because the Government is ready to listen to ideas and help implement them”, Branson said.
He pointed out that the project would cover Kenya and Rwanda, before being rolled out to other parts of the African continent. Both countries would serve as models.
Branson thanked Uhuru for supporting this new venture, saying Kenyans were diligent, and that it was only good sense to invest here.
The initiative comes in the wake of recent reports identifying a significant role for green mini-grids in rural electrification. The private sector, and bilateral and multilateral donors are keenly interested in developing different greenfield mini-grids in the country.
The proposed investment in renewable energy aims at displacing a percentage of diesel generation in off-grid stations.
Investment in renewables will raise the supply of clean energy for productive use, in support of Vision 2030.
Renewables are also expected to open up new job opportunities and revenue; to encourage optimal use of land as well as existing natural resources; and to enhance security.
In support of the push for clean energy, Uhuru launched the Lake Turkana Wind Power Project a week ago. It is expected to be the largest such project Africa, generating 310 megawatts of electricity – 14 percent of the Kenya’s current generation capacity.
Other investors in the delegation included Jacqueline Novogratz (founder and CEO, Acumen), Chris Anderson (curator, TED Conference) Dipender Saluja (Capricorn Investments), Steve Jurvetson (Draper Fisher Jurvetson), Strive Masiyiwa (founder and chair, Econet Wireless), Jean Oelwang (CEO, Virgin Unite) and Zia Khan of the Rockefeller Foundation.
Also present in the meeting were Safaricom CEO Bob Collymore; Kenya Private Sector Alliance CEO Carole Kariuki; KEPSA chairman Dennis Awori; Athi River Mining Company CEO Pradeep Paunrana; and Transport and Infrastructure acting CS Henry Rotich, with his Industrialization counterpart Adan Mohamed.
- See more at: http://www.the-star.co.k...gy#sthash.VsjiLSjG.dpuf
FOLLOW THE MONEY"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,300 Location: kenya
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murchr wrote:The Star wrote:
Kenya is a model investment destination and a model for the rest of Africa, Sir Richard Branson, founder and CEO of the Virgin Group has said.
Branson was speaking when he led a group of investors in talks with President Uhuru Kenyatta at his Harambee House office.
Together, they explored how to make the most of Kenya’s abundant potential for green energy.
Branson said the proposed renewables project would benefit the 50% Kenyans who are yet to access electricity.
“Investors in this initiative have chosen Kenya because the Government is ready to listen to ideas and help implement them”, Branson said.
He pointed out that the project would cover Kenya and Rwanda, before being rolled out to other parts of the African continent. Both countries would serve as models.
Branson thanked Uhuru for supporting this new venture, saying Kenyans were diligent, and that it was only good sense to invest here.
The initiative comes in the wake of recent reports identifying a significant role for green mini-grids in rural electrification. The private sector, and bilateral and multilateral donors are keenly interested in developing different greenfield mini-grids in the country.
The proposed investment in renewable energy aims at displacing a percentage of diesel generation in off-grid stations.
Investment in renewables will raise the supply of clean energy for productive use, in support of Vision 2030.
Renewables are also expected to open up new job opportunities and revenue; to encourage optimal use of land as well as existing natural resources; and to enhance security.
In support of the push for clean energy, Uhuru launched the Lake Turkana Wind Power Project a week ago. It is expected to be the largest such project Africa, generating 310 megawatts of electricity – 14 percent of the Kenya’s current generation capacity.
Other investors in the delegation included Jacqueline Novogratz (founder and CEO, Acumen), Chris Anderson (curator, TED Conference) Dipender Saluja (Capricorn Investments), Steve Jurvetson (Draper Fisher Jurvetson), Strive Masiyiwa (founder and chair, Econet Wireless), Jean Oelwang (CEO, Virgin Unite) and Zia Khan of the Rockefeller Foundation.
Also present in the meeting were Safaricom CEO Bob Collymore; Kenya Private Sector Alliance CEO Carole Kariuki; KEPSA chairman Dennis Awori; Athi River Mining Company CEO Pradeep Paunrana; and Transport and Infrastructure acting CS Henry Rotich, with his Industrialization counterpart Adan Mohamed.
- See more at: http://www.the-star.co.k...gy#sthash.VsjiLSjG.dpuf
FOLLOW THE MONEY Beside the point on a lighter note can't fail to see that sir Richard pocketed his hands next to the president. Money is good . Every hill becomes a steep slope .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/16/2007 Posts: 2,114
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1.I hope Branson used KQ to fly here...
2.He should re-introduce his airline may be to fly British tourists to Mombasa at least once a week?
3.I hope these investors are not eyeing a world record?
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/1/2010 Posts: 272 Location: Nairobi
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Billionaires tend to fly private. I second you on re-introduction of Virgin Airlines Chaka wrote:1.I hope Branson used KQ to fly here...
2.He should re-introduce his airline may be to fly British tourists to Mombasa at least once a week?
3.I hope these investors are not eyeing a world record? The harder you work, the luckier you get
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Chaka wrote:1.I hope Branson used KQ to fly here...  2.He should re-introduce his airline may be to fly British tourists to Mombasa at least once a week? The reason he stopped was more british than kenyan3.I hope these investors are not eyeing a world record? for what? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Italian PM - Matteo Renzi - July 2015 B H Obama - P O USA - July 2015 Pope Francis - Nov 2015 (Possible) WTO Ministerial Conference - 15-18 December 2015 (was to be held in Turkey) "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/15/2009 Posts: 360
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Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:hisah wrote:Shilling feels the pressure as trade deficit rises 59%Quote:The gap between Kenya’s imports and exports widened a massive 59 per cent or Sh37.7 billion in the first quarter of the year, explaining the significant depreciation of the shilling.
The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) reported the gap, also known as the current account deficit, stood at Sh101.5 billion, up from Sh63.7 billion recorded in the same quarter last year. Much of the exports pertain to the standard gauge railway construction.
“The deterioration in the current account balance was mainly occasioned by the increase in the import bill and the decline in the value of total exports in the same period. As a consequence, the current account balance recorded a deficit of Sh101.5 billion in the first quarter of 2015 compared to a deficit of Sh63.8 billion in the first quarter of 2014,” said the KNBS.
But those concerned and sitting at the ivory tower expect KES to become muscular! USD/KES > 100 today! That was my line in the sand to get out of the equity market completely until the market gets its head back.MPC sits tomorrow with a new governor in place. Their work is well cut out to say the least. Then add the curry flavour courtesy of Greece crisis and you can see the headwinds coming. Doesn't seem well thought out for me. The SGR should be taking nothing away from the country, my understanding is that it comes with foreign funding (in most parts goods needed are bartered directly for debt that does not yet exist) so should ideally have no impact on our BOP. If anything it should improve our BOP due to the local input thats majorly labour and whatever else the shainese didn't ship over and have to purchase locally. agreed, but hey you can't expect too much from our journalists
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Kenya's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) to Negative from Stable and affirmed them at 'B+' and 'BB-', respectively. The agency has also affirmed the Short-term IDR at 'B' and Country Ceiling at 'BB-'. The issue ratings on Kenya's senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds have been affirmed at 'B+'. RINK NDO HII PAPA HAPA Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Equities in a slump, real estate slumping before 2nd shock CBR rate hike and KBRR hike. Econ in a slump. The recession is gaining traction Money market taking over! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/15/2006 Posts: 3,905
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“We do understand the risks and the problems that would come from targeting a rate. We definitely want to be sure that if there is movement in the rate, it is smooth, gradual and something that can be picked up by the entire economy” CBK Governor
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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muganda wrote:“We do understand the risks and the problems that would come from targeting a rate. We definitely want to be sure that if there is movement in the rate, it is smooth, gradual and something that can be picked up by the entire economy” CBK Governor
Throwing in the towel? Renminbi clearing house now our saving grace @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Kenya inflation falls unexpectedly in July on lower food pricesLow inflation, high interest rates, econ macros out of sync... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Hikes paused. CBR maintained at 11.50% with next meeting slated in September. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Read if you have time"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Expensive fuel will be a tough sell dear ERC and oil honchos. Things will grind to a halt. Don't be surprised when they do... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Central Bank Rate - 11.50% Interbank Rate - 24.0373% as at 13/08/2015 91 Day T-Bill - 11.49% as at 17/08/2015 Inflation Rate - 6.62% for Jul 2015 Lending Rate - 15.26% for May 2015 Savings Rate - 1.48% for May 2015 Deposit Rate - 6.55% for May 2015 KBRR - 9.87% as at 07/07/2015 Everything is pretty distorted here! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:KES/UGX - Muscular, very bullish KESKES/TZS - Bullish KES USD/KES - bearish KES USD/UGX - strong bear UGXUSD/TZS - strong bear TZS KE trades a lot with UG. Meaning UG needs a lot more UGX to exchange for KES. Impact KE goods are now more expensive thus they'll cut back on KE imports as well as USD imports. Same case for TZ. KE econ in a slump, facing expensive USD, with expensive KES reducing UG/TZ export trade. Is anyone seeing what's coming?? CBK can't solve this equation with rate hikes. Treasury ministry gone bonkers! Unless bernanke literally pours USD from his helicopter in KE to save that widening current account deficit. This will be tough to watch Why Uhuru has stuck to controversial deals with Museveni
Image courtesy on Business Daily KE
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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