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USD/KES $ at 95
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maka
#121 Posted : Monday, July 13, 2015 2:56:51 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
maka wrote:
Gatheuzi wrote:
Gatheuzi wrote:
Watch out for highly geared companies. If debt is a high percentage of equity expect rate hikes to possibly erode vitually all profits.

Uchumi falls in this category. ARM needs to move fast to deal with the short term borrowings. Trancentary already planning a rights issue to deal with debts. Home Afrika may post a bigger loss as they keep digging themselves in funny arrangements. KQ - its obvious where they are headed. Mumias - already deep in debt and cant pay.


Rate hike of 300bps confirms my earlier worries. I expect 75% of firms above to give profit warnings this year.


Things are getting thick...


http://www.businessdaily...8/-/wjouhaz/-/index.html
possunt quia posse videntur
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The optimist
#122 Posted : Monday, July 13, 2015 4:21:24 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/14/2010
Posts: 521
Location: Nairobi
maka wrote:
maka wrote:
Gatheuzi wrote:
[quote=Gatheuzi]Watch out for highly geared companies. If debt is a high percentage of equity expect rate hikes to possibly erode vitually all profits.

Uchumi falls in this category. ARM needs to move fast to deal with the short term borrowings. Trancentary already planning a rights issue to deal with debts. Home Afrika may post a bigger loss as they keep digging themselves in funny arrangements. KQ - its obvious where they are headed. Mumias - already deep in debt and cant pay.


Rate hike of 300bps confirms my earlier worries. I expect 75% of firms above to give profit warnings this year.


Things are getting thick...


http://www.businessdaily.../-/wjouhaz/-/index.html[/quote]

Now at 102.50 ++
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VituVingiSana
#123 Posted : Tuesday, July 14, 2015 2:07:19 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,362
Location: Nairobi
The optimist wrote:
maka wrote:
maka wrote:
Gatheuzi wrote:
[quote=Gatheuzi]Watch out for highly geared companies. If debt is a high percentage of equity expect rate hikes to possibly erode vitually all profits.

Uchumi falls in this category. ARM needs to move fast to deal with the short term borrowings. Trancentary already planning a rights issue to deal with debts. Home Afrika may post a bigger loss as they keep digging themselves in funny arrangements. KQ - its obvious where they are headed. Mumias - already deep in debt and cant pay.


Rate hike of 300bps confirms my earlier worries. I expect 75% of firms above to give profit warnings this year.


Things are getting thick...


http://www.businessdaily.../-/wjouhaz/-/index.html[/quote]

Now at 102.50 ++
It hit 103+ until CBK intervened.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Coolio
#124 Posted : Tuesday, July 14, 2015 9:16:42 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/28/2008
Posts: 2,276
Location: Kibish
I see it heading to 120!
Nadondosha meli kubwa seuze ngalawa!
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Mainat
#125 Posted : Tuesday, July 14, 2015 2:57:57 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Imho, oil price falling will be a game changer
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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KulaRaha
#126 Posted : Tuesday, July 14, 2015 3:30:21 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
CBK has intervened 3 times since yesterday afternoon, and it is still holding strong at 102 levels.

Serious!
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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muganda
#127 Posted : Tuesday, July 14, 2015 3:45:49 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
KulaRaha wrote:
CBK has intervened 3 times since yesterday afternoon, and it is still holding strong at 102 levels.

Serious!

Very calculated their intervention, always to move the rate back below 102 at the end of closing so the rate carried forward is at this level; all trades show a loss if done above this level during the day.

If traders do not cover, aren't the banks red in the face when submitting their daily forex statistics to CBK?
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kizee1
#128 Posted : Tuesday, July 14, 2015 3:52:22 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
muganda wrote:
KulaRaha wrote:
CBK has intervened 3 times since yesterday afternoon, and it is still holding strong at 102 levels.

Serious!

Very calculated their intervention, always to move the rate back below 102 at the end of closing so the rate carried forward is at this level; all trades show a loss if done above this level during the day.

If traders do not cover, aren't the banks red in the face when submitting their daily forex statistics to CBK?


typical stuff by the CB they protect a level then pull the lid causing a blowout, seems like they are only looking to limit "volatility" as opposed to weakness
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KulaRaha
#129 Posted : Tuesday, July 14, 2015 3:52:32 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
muganda wrote:
KulaRaha wrote:
CBK has intervened 3 times since yesterday afternoon, and it is still holding strong at 102 levels.

Serious!

Very calculated their intervention, always to move the rate back below 102 at the end of closing so the rate carried forward is at this level; all trades show a loss if done above this level during the day.

If traders do not cover, aren't the banks red in the face when submitting their daily forex statistics to CBK?


What if you shorted above 102 intraday and buy back at end of day? Kinda easy and predictable.

I think the idea is to bring the USD below 102...closer to 100. Doesn't seem to be happening.
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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kizee1
#130 Posted : Tuesday, July 14, 2015 3:55:10 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
KulaRaha wrote:
muganda wrote:
KulaRaha wrote:
CBK has intervened 3 times since yesterday afternoon, and it is still holding strong at 102 levels.

Serious!

Very calculated their intervention, always to move the rate back below 102 at the end of closing so the rate carried forward is at this level; all trades show a loss if done above this level during the day.

If traders do not cover, aren't the banks red in the face when submitting their daily forex statistics to CBK?


What if you shorted above 102 intraday and buy back at end of day? Kinda easy and predictable.

I think the idea is to bring the USD below 102...closer to 100. Doesn't seem to be happening.


you can do this but how apart from CB intervention what else would cause a retracement? the day theyr out you will be wiped out
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