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The Cycle of Stock Market Emotions
bengraham
#1 Posted : Tuesday, June 02, 2015 1:32:31 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 5/19/2015
Posts: 15
Based on the reduced number of posts being experienced here on Wazua, it may be that the emotions of wazuans who have their money in the stock market have started on the slippery path of fear headed to despondency via desperation and panic. And there is no shortage of panic peddlers in these parts. So allow me to be the bright spot on a cloudy day by telling those who are fearful that all this is nothing new in the world of stock investing. It is a cycle that is as old as the hills. And the best part is that at the bottom of that valley lies the point of maximum opportunity. So how about this for a chart that every wazuan can understand. The other charts zina wenyewe!

Invest at the point of maximum pessimism.
agile
#2 Posted : Wednesday, June 03, 2015 10:17:17 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/9/2015
Posts: 19
Location: NAIROBI
bengraham wrote:
Based on the reduced number of posts being experienced here on Wazua, it may be that the emotions of wazuans who have their money in the stock market have started on the slippery path of fear headed to despondency via desperation and panic. And there is no shortage of panic peddlers in these parts. So allow me to be the bright spot on a cloudy day by telling those who are fearful that all this is nothing new in the world of stock investing. It is a cycle that is as old as the hills. And the best part is that at the bottom of that valley lies the point of maximum opportunity. So how about this for a chart that every wazuan can understand. The other charts zina wenyewe!


Be fearful when others are euphoric and euphoric when others are fearful.......old Buffet ADAGE
mkonomtupu
#3 Posted : Wednesday, June 03, 2015 10:46:29 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
@bengraham, let me join the panic peddlers. The global bond markets are starting the bubble burst. The bond yields have been going up in the month of May so the bond prices are going south.

"The question is what happens to the rest of the financial system if there's a huge correction in the bond market when the Federal Reserve finally raises rates, especially given concerns about liquidity in fixed income." Pray Pray Pray
bengraham
#4 Posted : Wednesday, June 03, 2015 7:36:53 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 5/19/2015
Posts: 15
@mkonomtupu. I hear you. However, lets look at stock investing for the ordinary wazuan who has neither the inclination nor the ability to keep track of global bond prices, quantitative easing and other such manenos. When they read the posts on wazua on imepnding bears and the like, they wonder what they should be doing to avoid losing money. Hence the anxiety and despondency. What should they sell? When? When should the board again? So my post was to assure such investors that they dont need to do anything as the market is just doing what it has done for ages, go up and down. For the wazuans who are comfortable trading in and out based on their technical analysis, then of course this doesnt apply to you.

Quoting Warren Buffet "In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497."

Even the US market recovered from the 2008 rock bottom crash. So whats a little bear for a long term investor wazuan?


Invest at the point of maximum pessimism.
Aguytrying
#5 Posted : Wednesday, June 03, 2015 7:54:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
bengraham wrote:
@mkonomtupu. I hear you. However, lets look at stock investing for the ordinary wazuan who has neither the inclination nor the ability to keep track of global bond prices, quantitative easing and other such manenos. When they read the posts on wazua on imepnding bears and the like, they wonder what they should be doing to avoid losing money. Hence the anxiety and despondency. What should they sell? When? When should the board again? So my post was to assure such investors that they dont need to do anything as the market is just doing what it has done for ages, go up and down. For the wazuans who are comfortable trading in and out based on their technical analysis, then of course this doesnt apply to you.

Quoting Warren Buffet "In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497."

Even the US market recovered from the 2008 rock bottom crash. So whats a little bear for a long term investor wazuan?




Amen. preach!
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
enyands
#6 Posted : Wednesday, June 03, 2015 8:00:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
bengraham wrote:
@mkonomtupu. I hear you. However, lets look at stock investing for the ordinary wazuan who has neither the inclination nor the ability to keep track of global bond prices, quantitative easing and other such manenos. When they read the posts on wazua on imepnding bears and the like, they wonder what they should be doing to avoid losing money. Hence the anxiety and despondency. What should they sell? When? When should the board again? So my post was to assure such investors that they dont need to do anything as the market is just doing what it has done for ages, go up and down. For the wazuans who are comfortable trading in and out based on their technical analysis, then of course this doesnt apply to you.

Quoting Warren Buffet "In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497."

Even the US market recovered from the 2008 rock bottom crash. So whats a little bear for a long term investor wazuan?




Now this makes sense .
whiteowl
#7 Posted : Wednesday, June 03, 2015 8:26:22 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
bengraham wrote:
@mkonomtupu. I hear you. However, lets look at stock investing for the ordinary wazuan who has neither the inclination nor the ability to keep track of global bond prices, quantitative easing and other such manenos. When they read the posts on wazua on imepnding bears and the like, they wonder what they should be doing to avoid losing money. Hence the anxiety and despondency. What should they sell? When? When should the board again? So my post was to assure such investors that they dont need to do anything as the market is just doing what it has done for ages, go up and down. For the wazuans who are comfortable trading in and out based on their technical analysis, then of course this doesnt apply to you.

Quoting Warren Buffet "In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497."

Even the US market recovered from the 2008 rock bottom crash. So whats a little bear for a long term investor wazuan?



VituVingiSana
#8 Posted : Thursday, June 04, 2015 12:35:11 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
bengraham wrote:
@mkonomtupu. I hear you. However, lets look at stock investing for the ordinary wazuan who has neither the inclination nor the ability to keep track of global bond prices, quantitative easing and other such manenos. When they read the posts on wazua on imepnding bears and the like, they wonder what they should be doing to avoid losing money. Hence the anxiety and despondency. What should they sell? When? When should the board again? So my post was to assure such investors that they dont need to do anything as the market is just doing what it has done for ages, go up and down. For the wazuans who are comfortable trading in and out based on their technical analysis, then of course this doesnt apply to you.

Quoting Warren Buffet "In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497."

Even the US market recovered from the 2008 rock bottom crash. So whats a little bear for a long term investor wazuan?


Applause Applause Applause
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Boris Boyka
#9 Posted : Thursday, June 04, 2015 5:44:58 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
@bengraham...Very Many wazuans are just SPECULATORS disguised in the mouth skin of "am a long term investor". Buree kabisa.
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
mkonomtupu
#10 Posted : Thursday, June 04, 2015 7:50:09 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
@bengraham, bond yields and stocks is Fundamental Analysis 101. I'm shocked you missed the point by a mile.

Anyway i'm 30 posts away from leaving wazua so please just a little longer
Mtu Biz
#11 Posted : Thursday, June 04, 2015 8:45:16 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/16/2007
Posts: 1,320

@bengraham Karibu.

Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause
Sola Scriptura


S.Mutaga III
#12 Posted : Thursday, June 04, 2015 8:57:20 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
Things are getting emotional in here...the best strategy remains...holding cash and waiting for attractive P/E's of blue chips (Below 7) and nice dividend yields above 8%. I believe thats where there is a good margin of safety...I hope safaricom and KCB behave (tank to attractive prices)...and for those holding some counters now like me, if you believe there is a considerable margin of safety...you may continue holding for the long term...I currently have Kenya Re, Unga and KPLC...Kenya Re and KPLC with a PE of around 4 and Unga around 7...I believe I have a considerable margin of safety here even with a bear market.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
ike
#13 Posted : Thursday, June 04, 2015 10:51:40 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/2/2014
Posts: 123
Boris Boyka wrote:
@bengraham...Very Many wazuans are just SPECULATORS disguised in the mouth skin of "am a long term investor". Buree kabisa.


I don't think it really matters which label one chooses to wear when investing... because one calls himself a long term investor and makes loses, another is called a speculator and makes profit.... its all about being on the money.
,
Aguytrying
#14 Posted : Thursday, June 04, 2015 12:22:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
ike wrote:
Boris Boyka wrote:
@bengraham...Very Many wazuans are just SPECULATORS disguised in the mouth skin of "am a long term investor". Buree kabisa.


I don't think it really matters which label one chooses to wear when investing... because one calls himself a long term investor and makes loses, another is called a speculator and makes profit.... its all about being on the money.


@Boris. haha. have u suddenly become a long term investor? just the other day u were selling your kk shares to buy lower... what happened?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
bengraham
#15 Posted : Thursday, June 04, 2015 12:42:37 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 5/19/2015
Posts: 15
Boris Boyka wrote:
@bengraham...Very Many wazuans are just SPECULATORS disguised in the mouth skin of "am a long term investor". Buree kabisa.


@boris. I think its what PR practitioners call "share of voice". The speculators may seem to be more than the rest because it is essential to them that they track every day movements of share prices and maybe post something about them. But for long term investors the daily movements don't mean as much hence they have less to post about.

But for the wazuans thinking in terms of months, years or even decades I have the words of Nobel Laureate Paul Samuelson to share. "Investing should be boring - more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas"

Imagine if you put a bean in the ground and sat there watching it every day to see it grow? You just have to invest and then let time do its thing


Invest at the point of maximum pessimism.
Boris Boyka
#16 Posted : Thursday, June 04, 2015 1:20:23 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
Aguytrying wrote:
ike wrote:
Boris Boyka wrote:
@bengraham...Very Many wazuans are just SPECULATORS disguised in the mouth skin of "am a long term investor". Buree kabisa.


I don't think it really matters which label one chooses to wear when investing... because one calls himself a long term investor and makes loses, another is called a speculator and makes profit.... its all about being on the money.


@Boris. haha. have u suddenly become a long term investor? just the other day u were selling your kk shares to buy lower... what happened?

Haha @Aguy am hybrid.....very situational. I was right on KK and now am dancing in 8.45 and lower. Yes @ike...We are here for the money regardless of the stay. Am laughing at those wazuans who call themselves long termers just for the sake and are Really worried by everyday prices if a stock.
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
bengraham
#17 Posted : Monday, June 08, 2015 4:59:25 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 5/19/2015
Posts: 15
Some of you may know Fidelity Investments which is an American multinational financial services corporation. It is one of the largest mutual fund and financial services groups in the world and manages a large family of mutual funds, provides fund distribution and investment advice services, as well as providing discount brokerage services, retirement services, wealth management, securities execution and clearance, life insurance and a number of other services.

Recently, an internal performance review of Fidelity accounts was conducted to determine which type of investors received the best returns between 2003 and 2013. The customer account audit revealed that the best investors were either dead or inactive—the people who switched jobs and “forgot” about an old account leaving the current options in place, or the people who died and the assets were frozen while the estate handled the assets.

Perhaps there lies a lesson here for those who believe in constant boarding and disembarking of buses at every stage. It may be more exciting and may keep you very busy but you could probably do better to just sit on your hands and do nothing. Am not going to go so far as to suggest that you die for the sake of higher returns though.
Invest at the point of maximum pessimism.
Gadaffi
#18 Posted : Monday, June 08, 2015 7:06:29 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/13/2011
Posts: 284
Location: Nairobi
This luks lyk a bloodbath!!! Centum seems 2b holdin well
S.Mutaga III
#19 Posted : Monday, June 08, 2015 7:26:34 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
bengraham wrote:
Some of you may know Fidelity Investments which is an American multinational financial services corporation. It is one of the largest mutual fund and financial services groups in the world and manages a large family of mutual funds, provides fund distribution and investment advice services, as well as providing discount brokerage services, retirement services, wealth management, securities execution and clearance, life insurance and a number of other services.

Recently, an internal performance review of Fidelity accounts was conducted to determine which type of investors received the best returns between 2003 and 2013. The customer account audit revealed that the best investors were either dead or inactive—the people who switched jobs and “forgot” about an old account leaving the current options in place, or the people who died and the assets were frozen while the estate handled the assets.

Perhaps there lies a lesson here for those who believe in constant boarding and disembarking of buses at every stage. It may be more exciting and may keep you very busy but you could probably do better to just sit on your hands and do nothing. Am not going to go so far as to suggest that you die for the sake of higher returns though.

I couldnt agree more. Investing in shares should be done passively to realize maximum returns...a few right choices and patience to wait for five years will do the trick...a neighbour bought Ksh 4 million worth of safcom shares in 2013 @Ksh 3. He offloaded all of them recently at Ksh 16.5 and went to coast for a week.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
ike
#20 Posted : Tuesday, June 09, 2015 9:54:35 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/2/2014
Posts: 123
bengraham wrote:
Some of you may know Fidelity Investments which is an American multinational financial services corporation. It is one of the largest mutual fund and financial services groups in the world and manages a large family of mutual funds, provides fund distribution and investment advice services, as well as providing discount brokerage services, retirement services, wealth management, securities execution and clearance, life insurance and a number of other services.

Recently, an internal performance review of Fidelity accounts was conducted to determine which type of investors received the best returns between 2003 and 2013. The customer account audit revealed that the best investors were either dead or inactive—the people who switched jobs and “forgot” about an old account leaving the current options in place, or the people who died and the assets were frozen while the estate handled the assets.

Perhaps there lies a lesson here for those who believe in constant boarding and disembarking of buses at every stage. It may be more exciting and may keep you very busy but you could probably do better to just sit on your hands and do nothing. Am not going to go so far as to suggest that you die for the sake of higher returns though.

Laziness disguises itself in many ways and 'long term' is one of its many justifications. From their research it may be true that between 2003 and 2013 people made money but what about 2003-2007? Imagine a long termer who bought the tech stocks before the bubble and held them till the bubble burst....of course a speculator is in it long term too, only making a few adjustments
,
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